Comments by "Stephen Sipe" (@stephensipe5405) on "Moods are Shifting - Globe u0026 Mail Europe Bureau Chief Interviewed" video.
-
Ukraine Fatigue was caused by GEN Zaluzhny’s failure to use Economy Of Force in a single Corp Level Offensive in 2023. This is what the US/NATO advised. Instead, GEN Zaluzhny used a Dilution Of Force, a NATO no-no, by spreading out Ukrainian manpower and NATO weapons over 8 Offensives not supporting each other’s Objectives. These included: 1 in Donetsk Oblast, 6 in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and 1 in Kherson Oblast East. Dilution equals failure just as the US/NATO suggested.
Ukraine will have 1 more chance at an Offensive season. If GEN Zaluzhny again leads Ukraine on multiple Offensives, this will cost Ukraine any chance of victory. If GEN Zaluzhny learned from his failure, or if a new Commander with a NATO perspective is hired, Ukrainians might still launch a single Corp Level Offensive capable of reaching the Azov Sea. The Ukrainians will have F16s to help gain Air Dominance. The question is whether the array of ammo will be great enough and in sufficient quantities to create a true Combined Arms environment. Once the Azov Sea is reached, all of Crimea can be under daily siege using conventional artillery rounds, glide bombs, and HIMARS rounds. Reaching Crimea or liberating the Donbas south of the Donetsk River will both be achievable Objectives.
1
-
@DavidOfWhitehills Air neutrality means what to you? From my military training it means Enemy aircraft may OR may not be present. This means Air Defense has to be planned along with CAS missions to give AO (Area of Operations) Air Dominance. Ukrainians certainly could not do this for the 8 Offensives attempted. They could have done it for 1 Corp Level Offensive.
The early Ukrainian formations destroyed on movement to the front lines were bunched up, not dispersed. They moved in secure areas in daylight, not at night. Why? Normal procedure would be to move at night by MPs to a secure area with cover near the frontline.
Ukrainians have NEVER demonstrated on video proper breaching technique for crossing a minefield and breaching a defensive line. This is the by the book procedure:
1: Suppressive fire at the defensive line.
2: Include obscuration rounds just prior to the start of the breach.
3: Deploy near side Security Team.
4: Deploy Engineers with MICLICs. Fire MICLICs. Proof lane to end of detonation. Repeat MICLICs and proofing until the minefield is cleared.
5: At this point obscuration rounds continue but suppression rounds shift to deep battle.
6: Far side Security Team runs through the lane to secure far side.
7: The 1ST Unit to attack now runs through the breach and attacks defensive line. As this occurs, the obscuration rounds stop.
If the Enemy has limited night vision devices, the breach should occur at night. Combined with obscuration, the Enemy should not know exactly where lanes cross the minefields even with MICLICs firing.
Why 1 Corp Level OffensIve?
With 1 Corp Offensive, Ukrainians would have plenty of artillery supporting individual frontline Units, and additional artillery in Reserve. This is a lot of suppression fire and obscuration fire. If a 30K Offensive centered on Staromaiorske with 3 Axis of Advance with Rozivka as an Objective. Once Rozivka was secure, the easiest of Berdiansk, Yalta, or Mariupol would be the Objective cutting the Russian land bridge.
1
-
1