Comments by "Stephen Sipe" (@stephensipe5405) on "Can Russia's Advance Be Stopped?" video.

  1. I watch daily Ukraine Matters. Georgie understands overall strategy for Ukraine to win. He relies on low level Ukrainian soldiers to give him frontline updates. Therefore, as a US trained Brigade Military Intelligence Officer, formerly Armor trained to Company Level, I am able to separate those areas where Georgie’s analysis is strong and those areas in which he is reaching with Ukrainian glasses on. Here are the real facts: 1: Georgie is correct about the Russian economy falling into a meltdown. Russia is close to Germany in early 1918 economically. If Russia cannot pull off a victory by July 2025, OR get a Cease Fire during Peace Negotiations, the Russian Military will have to dig in or pull back to defensive positions. 2: The Allies of Ukraine at the Rammstein Meetings have slow walked their support since July 2022. Most of these are decisions is t keep all 50 Allies on board. Most are NATO Members. However, President Trump was 100% correct in European laziness in their own defense. Without President Trump’s foot in their behinds, most Europeans not want to PAY for increasing defenses until Russians were at THEIR border. Spain had 368 Leopard MBTs of which only 75 were immediately useable, and 40 more were on 60 day useable status. They promised Ukraine 12 Leopard 2A6 MBTs, delivered 6, then 6 months later delivered 4 more, then 12 months later delivered 6 Leopard 1A5s. If Spain had to actually fulfill its NATO obligations in a war, they might provide 1 Armored Brigade Team. It would take a YEAR to provide a 2ND Brigade. This is what the US is dealing with as part of NATO. Additionally, many Europeans are running trade surpluses with the US. They are hosing the US on military support and on trade. Average Americans have had enough. We are past WW2 recovery. Europeans have to pull their own weight. US bases in Europe should not cost the US any money. So Georgie is correct about European defense and defense industries have to be more robust. But how can this occur? Georgie hates President Trump. On the other hand, it’s only President Trump foot up Europe’s behind which has gotten any positive changes. So Georgie’s talk is cheap speculations. 3: Ukrainians are fighting WW3 for all of Europe. I know this. All Europeans should know its Ukrainian blood and guts stopping a greater Russian onslaught by a Russian Hitler minded leader, Putin. The question is what does Ukraine have to do to WIN. Right now Ukrainians are only willing to tread water. Here are my ideas for victory: A: Ukrainian politicians have to comprehend Ukrainian troops need 18 months to go from raw recruits to Brigades in fighting shape. This includes training all Officers, NCOs, and Command Level NCOs. Most Infantry, Armor, Artillery, and Logistics troops can be trained in 8 months. Junior NCOs can start being selected at the end of this training. Officers with 4 year college degrees will need 8 months also. The weakest Officers can be directed away from Combat roles. It will take 1-2 months to train as a Squads/Platoons inside Companies. The Captain and 1ST Sergeants have to come from experienced leaders to use this timeline. Likewise, Battalions will need 3 months with core Staff coming from experienced Officers and NCOs. Battalions will need simulators as well as field exercises to be trained in 3 months. The HQ Company and its Special Platoons all have to work as a Unit with a succession plan. Maneuver Companies have to know where and how to move in a Battalion formation. All leaders have to “know what they don’t know.” Battalions have to perform at least 2 Battle Planning missions. One can be on simulators and the other has to be a field exercise. There should be at least 1 dry walk through to create a 5 Paragraph OPORD. War gaming has to be explained. All Battle Plans require 2 unique Friendly COAs (Courses Of Action). The MI Officer has to provide the Enemy COAs as Most Probable and Most Dangerous. Staff NCOs create a timeline and Commander DPs (Decision Points) for each Friendly COA versus both Enemy COAs. The Commander then has to pick the best COA. My experience is most Commander’s take parts of both COAs. This should require a final war game with new timelines and DPs. Battalions are then formed into Brigades. It will take 5-6 months to fully train a Brigade. This training should include simulators in the 1ST month. There should be 1-3 Battle Plans practiced each month with at least 4 different locations involved. This will make sure Commanders at all levels do NOT get comfortable with one location. Terrain advantages have to be recognized by leaders, including NCOs. Movement to contact discipline has to be practiced. Communications from Companies to Battalions and Battalions to Brigade has to be maintained under varying circumstances. Division and Corps Commanders can observe the last month of Brigade training to evaluate what quality of Unit they will be getting. B: With all of A in mind, Ukrainian politicians need to recruit about 150,000 troops per year until 2026. This will send message to its Allies that Ukraine is not backing down. 3: In 2022, Ukrainians did not receive HIMARS Artillery until 600+ Russian spies, agents, and collaborators in the Ukrainian government were fired out of the 1000+ identified by the US. Slowly, these remaining 400+ Russian Operatives are being weeded out. Unfortunately, Ukrainians lost a lot of territory in the beginning of the war. Then GEN Zaluzhny executed Ukraine’s one best Offensive Operation using legacy Soviet Unit Organization and legacy Soviet Schemes Of Maneuver. He rejected US/NATO guidance. GEN Zaluzhny failed and so did Ukraine. This has complicated Ukraine’s path to victory. There are ZERO excuses for failure, but GEN Zaluzhny basically blamed Ukraine’s Allies. Here is the real truth. Any Ukrainian Unit can defeat a defending Russian Unit IF and WHEN overwhelming Force is applied and Success Is Exploited. These are both NATO Principles Of War. Do you need Air Superiority? NO. The Ukrainian Kharkiv Offensive did not enjoy Air Superiority yet was a massive success. When GEN Zaluzhny had a big success during the Bahkmut South Flank Offensive, he failed to Exploit Success with additional Brigades to envelop Horlivka or push onto Popasna. Instead, GEN Zaluzhny diluted his Force by starting another Offensive in a different and unrelated part of tge frontline. This was legacy Soviet thinking. NATO Commanders would have piled on the Bahkmut South Flank Offensive and forced Russia to immediately react. Now GEN Syrskyi has launched a Battalion size Offensive Operation into Kursk. WHY?!? Would not a fresh Battalion counterattacking in a current battle where Russians have overextended their salients been better? Even a non-salient attack on Hatyshche to cut off Russian supply lines north of the village would have yield better and longer lasting results. Ukrainian Military Command cannot afford more GEN Zaluzhny mistakes in Offensive Operations.
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