Comments by "geemy" (@geemy9675) on "Munro Live"
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modern battery and electric motor technology have removed most of the inefficiencies in powertrains (gears/clitches/transmission tunnels/transfer cases) and optimized almost evrey aspect. when you look at a model s plaid powertrain seems to have been tuned to provide exactly the maximum torque that can be transfered to the wheels when accelerating, with 33% front/66% back maximising grip during the strong weight transfer happenning from 0-60mph. past 60mph its pretty much flat power curve that maximises the power that can be delivered by the batttery, and handled by the motors/controllers. rpm/gearing optimized to achieves fastest top speed that can be safely handled by tires considering the weight, with a comfortable safety margin. Even if you tried to improve it , you would hardly be able to do better. in drag racing, more torque/power and very sticky tires would help, but on a track, more power would get very minimal gains by overheating the battery, and tires, on the road under speed limits more power would be cut by traction controls.
Now almost who's ready to spend a bit more for performance can have access to a family car with massive amount of power in a reliable and cheap to operate daily driver car (model 3/Y performance, ioniq N, EV6 GT, Mach E GT, upcoming volvo EX30...) We are slowly getting to point (or already at the point) where most people can have way more power that they can/want to use.
I think the next big thing in cars will be (active) suspension technology..."active" suspensions with different presets for damping and ride height is just beginning and 1/10 of the equation. truly active/predictive suspensions with cameras/radars that soak up every imperfection, corner perfectly flat or even lean into the corners( think bose suspension), maintain perfect wheel geometry and tire contact patch throughout corners (new 992 GT2 RS active camber), and gives you better grip and better comfort over any road and at any speed, its potentially the ride comfort superior to luxury car, and handling/cornering similar to the best sports cars. Even if theres a weight penalty, the potential real life benefits way overcome the weight penalty I would happily trade 10% acceleration for a suspensions that would completely cancel potholes and speed bumps, corner/accelerate/brake flat like a go kart. There's a problem though, it could lead to people losing sensation of speed and speeding in residential areas/cities, not slowing down for speed bumps, and progressively going faster and faster over speed bumps, potentially reaching a point where they go passed the limits of the system and losing control at very high speeds.
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double the number of 4680 in a model Y is not gonna cut it for the 500miles cybertruck. the 67kWh 4680 Model Y has 828 cells double the cells would be only so about 81Wh per cell.
If the Cybertruck was as efficient as a model X Plaid on 22in wheels, it would need 160kWh to drive 500miles.
It doesnt take a genius to know that a CT with a drag coeff somewhere beetween 0.3 and 0.4 at best vs 0.24 , one more motor, at least 60kWh more, 4 wheeel steering, 35 in off road tires, 3x the tow rating, 3.5x the payload, powered tailgat, ramp and tonneau cover, armored glass etc will be way heavier and way less efficient than the model X. I think 200kWh is a pretty conservative estimate of the battery capcacity the will need to achieve 500 miles epa range. So actually more like 3x the model Y 4680 capacity or about 2500 cells. Of course they might not make ONLY 500miles versions at launch, but its still very likely that they will first try to deliver the highest trims..
~140kWh / 1600+ 4680 cells seems more reasonable for the 350 miles dual motor version
The RWD '250miles version...who knows if they will ever make one. I don't see any manufacturer making 2WD electric trucks, so...
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@rogerstarkey5390 more efficient, yes, Id put my money on it. lightning has the worst electric truck dag coefficient, and model Y more efficient than mach E. much lighter no, at least not in the 500 miles version because even if its it will require a battery close to 200kWh and will be heavier than the R1T.
based on the most efficient electric truck on the marker , 43kWh/100miles means 215kWh/500miles
considering it will have to lug a giant battery around and a less than stellar drag coefficient (way higher than R1T), 200kWh 40kWh/100 miles 84 mpge would actually be an excellent result. hummer EV only does 300miles on same battery size
170kWh would be the same efficiency as the Model X plaid, which absoluely CAN NOT happen with more weight, ground clearance, MUCH higher aero drag, way bigger truck tires
The hopes for cybertruck relatively light weight were based on structural 4680 battery pack which turns out much heavier /kWh than LR 21700 battery in the model Y
And revolutionary Exoskeleton which will be actually on top of a traditional unibody castings, plus all the heavy equipments (4 motors, 4 wheel steering, heavy glass and panels)
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@chrisheath2637 batteries need to be 1/reconditioned 2/recycled if you recycle a whole battery pack because only a heandful of cells have gone bad, its very energy inefficient , Same for the price, if you have the choice between whole new battery for 20k or fixing it be replacing a few cells. Even if it doesnt last quite as long, its about
Also, when tela charges you 20k for a battery replacement, they are selling you reconditionned batteries anyway.
Tesla is very optimistic with their batteries, but the warranty is still 8 years/100k miles ? you shouldn't reasonably expect much more than that except if you take special care about your battery, always stay between 20/80, always store for extended periods at 50%, few fast charging sessions, and always between 20/80.
You will prolongate battery life but also have only used only 60% of the battery.
I think the best strategy is stay within 20/80 as long as you can do it with no impact and fast charge -80% on long trips
BTW Tesla didn't deliver anything at all on 4680 battery density improvements. I would take the "million mile battery" with a grain of salt.
battery will degrade over time on top of the wear from the cycles. 15 years /200kmiles sounds more like it
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the funny thing is all this reinventing the wheel sounds both smart and very difficult to achieve but all to bring features that no one asked on an electric truck? like bullet proof body that's more durable but cant be fixed
Tesla could have made an aluminum unibody truck with mix of aluminum gigacastings, steel and even stainless steel, with similar or better weight and strength, lightweight and replacable stamped aluminum body panels, with a much better drag coefficient, freedom to design the truck, all at a cheaper cost and with better range/efficiency.
Rivian reached 0.3 with a blocky long hood truck, even a ford ranger has longer more sloped windshields and a softer transition beetween hood and windshield. tesla could probably have gotten close to 0.25, and made the roof a bit lower, without the stainless steel.
But I guess its a bet on the future if they ever manage to improve the processes, lower cost and enable more complex shapes with also thinner SS for cheap lightweight vehicles? The cybertruck itself is clearly not worth all the development that has gone into it.
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