Youtube comments of Mosern1977 (@Mosern1977).
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Nice review and I agree, seeing the informed Russian perspective is helpful.
I think NATO is OK with this dragging on. Now NATO has a renewed purpose, and most of Europe is re-arming and re-investing in the arms industry. Big money is flowing in, production facilities are upgraded, and new ones are built. Old equipment is shipped to Ukraine, new equipment is procured. Latest stuff gets actual field testing. War is big business.
As long as the conflict is locked down to some fields in eastern Ukraine, it can continue for decades for all NATO military establishment really cares.
Economically speaking, bleeding Russia dry is not really going to happen. But making Russia into North-West Korea is still on the table. So a few more years of this, and Europe will have disconnected itself fully from Russia.
The idea of NATO countries attacking Russia, is just a result of Russian propaganda. It is one of the many stories that they tell themselves over there.
While the victory condition for Ukraine is pretty clear, it is telling that nobody in Russia knows what their victory condition is.
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@ChrisARC - "nice" as in "want to help everyone, and close their eyes for the cost".
There is a major difference between the US and Europe (and especially the Scandinavian countries), and that is the welfare state.
The welfare state is dependent on people contributing, not exploiting it and having a sense of community.
This was not a problem back in the day, when it was mono-ethnic, mono-cultural societies.
But the welfare state allows for people to not integrate, not learn the language, not contribute, etc. The US way of "sink or swim" forces immigrants to work. The Scandinavian model does not.
Sweden (unlike Norway (and to some degree Denmark)) hasn't seen war in 200+ years. No Swede has ever had to fight for Sweden. They don't have any nationalistic tendencies in their culture, and will not fight for Sweden, as they take it for granted.
(Norway on the other hand is much more nationalistic - as we were part of WW2 and also has years of history getting away from Sweden and Denmark.).
Sweden now is going to learn these things the hard way. They will change their ways, and become much harder people, as the soft, naive, gentle, well-meaning old Swedes die out.
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There are a few mechanisms at play here (I'm Norwegian with Swedish family ties, so I know Swedes quite well). In Sweden's case, it has been at peace for 200+ years. Sweden has never been conquered or occupied, they dont even have a real national day. No Swede living today has ever had to fight for Sweden, or even know of anyone who has. Swedes took Sweden for granted.
Combine this with a world view that the Swedish society was the best in the world, with an exceptional trust in authorities, and you have a recipe for disaster.
When immigrants started flocking to Sweden, they thought that they needed to help these poor people. And that as soon as people from other parts of the world arrive in Sweden, they will realize how good the Swedish system is, and align their culture and values with the Swedish ones automatically. The government would keep up this perceived goodness for as long as they could, and any critics were subdued as racists or nazis.
They should have course corrected 20 years ago, but they kept on going, until the issues could no longer be swept under the carpet. Now there is a new government in place, and Swedes will now align behind that, in order to fix the issues their culture caused.
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@felezeros4556 - 1. Wealth tax kicks in at 1.7 million NOK. Which is so low that anyone with a paid down apartment will pay it. So no, its not only the rich, its everyone not living on welfare, passed the age of 40/50. Of course, the main issue is that the tax is counter productive to wealth generation in Norway, and extremely bad for the Norwegian economy as a whole. In other words it costs a lot more than it brings in.
2. The bureaucracy does not want less bureaucracy, they want to expand the bureaucracy. The more regulations you have, the more bureaucracy always follows.
3. First of all, Norway is not one of the biggest producers in the world. And secondly, Norway's oil production is pretty clean. And thirdly, as long as there is demand, there will be producers. So no, Norway cannot affect anything at all.
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@ursafan40 - so Norway never had a car industry (and therefore all cars are imports and have very high taxes on them).
But in the late 90s some Norwegian guys started making a shitty electric car (Think). Government though - that's a great idea, we can support electric cars and pretend to be green and maybe it can generate some local jobs and exports.
Now the Think car was really shitty, so no-one would really buy it. So the government said - no taxes, no vat, can use bus/taxi lane, no road toll, free parking... And they knew that wouldn't cost them much, as the car still wouldn't sell in any real numbers.
But every time the press asked about "green" policies, the politicians would point to all the things they did for the electric car. They repeated this for years.
Then suddenly comes Tesla with Model S. As an electric car, it got all the benefits that was orginially intended for Think. It was the same price as a VW Passat or Audi A4 in Norway, and sold like hot cakes.
Since so much green political capital was already invested into "electric vehicles" the politicians couldn't back down. But every year it would cost them more and more billions of lost tax revenue.
So now they try to wiggle themselves out of the "free" mess they made for themselves. They have reduced the "can use buss-lane (it got congested)", free road tolls are gone (it has reduced fee only now), free parking is gone, and now they want to tax electric cars over 600k NOK.
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@-Zevin- True, and the reason NATO is having a hard time on the artillery front, is that NATO doctrine is relying on airpower, not artillery to deal pain at distance.
Which may or may not be a good idea in a near-peer situation. In any case its not all about the shells, you need the cannons as well, and they get worn out.
Finally, making artillery and dumb rounds for artillery isn't exactly cutting edge stuff. So any country can do it, in theory.
But of course, no western arms manufacturer is going to invest in new factories and tools, if there isn't a long term supply contract.
So I think the war in Ukraine is shaking things up in the West as well, as it now see the issues that counter-insurgency operations does not showcase.
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That's how Russian propaganda works.
The government owned media have talking heads spewing out different reasons for the war. There is probably 20 different reasons and the idea is that people will swallow the one that personally resonates best with their own beliefs.
Of course there is no critical questions ever, so if the wars is to stop the gay, the nazis, the Americans, the bio-birds, save the motherland, etc etc, everyone just nods, and the lie sticks where it sticks.
People of course get confused by this as well, but that's fine. Confused people just think they are stupid and won't revolt, because they feel they don't have all the info, and that Putin knows best.
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@mobo_67 - Norway is a bit in-between Denmark (very strict policies) and Sweden (super lax policies) on immigration.
Due to Norways long history as a vasal state in different unions (under Denmark for 400 years, and Sweden for 90) and also being occupied by Nazi Germany (40-45), there is a substancial nationalistic sentiment in Norway. And we do celebrate our constitutional day (17th of May) with very much pride.
This is also one of the main reasons Norway is not in the EU, the thought of joining a union is not very popular in Norway.
Norway has however seen massive immigration over the last 40 years. Thankfully its been mostly Swedes and Polish people, which has caused little problems. As with all Western European countries, we have issues with the usual MENA immigrant populations. But thanks to the immense oil wealth, we can afford to pay for them not working or casuing trouble.
There is a shift to our most right-leaning political party (strict immigration, less taxes, more oil and gas extraction) in Norway for this years election.
Sweden is otherwise a cautionary tale for us, and Denmark is a guiding star in immigration politics.
I personally think Norway will manage fine, and continue to prosper going forward. We tend to plan ahead and try solving issues together before they grow to big to handle.
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@fattony-yi2pu - so here is the thing with your wall of text. It doesn't match up with reality - it is just bad excuses, half lies and half truths.
1. Which western democracy has the same rulers now than it had 20 years ago? Not USA, not Germany, not France, not any western country. Russia does however. What score does Russia have on any democracy indexes?
2. Russia did guarantee for Ukraine's security too, so that Ukraine would give up its nuclear arsenal that it inherited from USSR. Guess that didn't mean anything to Russia a few decades later. Ignoring deals is part of Russian foreign policy, guess why every eastern European country wants to be a NATO member.
3. Russia is attacking Ukraine, and annexing it, piece by piece. There is no denying that. NATO countries are supporting Ukraine as any country has the right to defend itself.
4. If Russia didn't want NATO close, then it shouldn't have attacked Ukraine. NATO will soon have borders a few kilometers from St. Petersburg. But NATO is a defensive agreement. NATO will not attack Russia, unless Russia attack NATO first. And I really hope Russia isn't stupid enough to do that.
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@Aaron-pv3qq - well, that's not the definition of socialism. Socialism is an economic system, and has nothing to do with how healthcare is financed.
Btw pretty sure you already pay for elementary schools, roads, police, military, judges, political parties, fire fighters, social security, prisons, public servants, and a ton of government agencies (ATF, NASA, CIA, FBI, FAA, FCC, etc, etc).
Not wanting to pay for any of that is called Anarchism. It is a common form of government in the freest countries in the world - like Somalia. You can do whatever you want in those countries.
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@spanke2999 - well, you are correct that the measured amount of the CO2 trace gas in the atmosphere has been increasing lately, and it will (most likely) continue to increase. The few larger species that has gone extinct over the last 50 years, did so due to human hunting over a century ago. Since then - nothing. It is perfectly natural for species to go extinct, if they cannot adapt and reproduce fast enough to handle predators in their area. Nothing to worry about.
" in the future the increase in temperature will be high enough to be the main impactor with respect to ecosystem destruction" - this is may or may not be true, and at the moment can only be characterized as a hypothesis with no solid evidence, as we need to wait for the future to happen, before we can verify this.
Even evil pussy grabbing people might be right, you know - from time to time. Feel free to believe in whatever doomsday scenario you like to believe. The good news is that since the climate won't change in 30 years time, you can pat yourself on the back in 30 years time, and say: "because I bought an electric car - the world didn't end". You'll win regardless :)
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The Norwegian governement is allowed to take out up to 3% of the fund's value every year, to prop up the government budget. Due to the war in Ukraine, and good times in the stock market, and weaking NOK, the fund is now so large that using 3% of it is way too much for the Norwegian economy. (Those 3% is around 20% of the entire state budget).
The real return on the investments are way higher than 3%, and today Norway doesn't even need to use 3%. And every year as other countries buy oil and gas, more money is poured into the fund in addition to the unused returns. So due to compound interest and very long term investment horizons, the fund will continue to grow for the foreseable future, getting bigger and bigger - faster and faster. (Compound interest is a very powerful force).
The main challenge for Norway going forward now is actually how to funnel all that wealth into the society, without collapsing the norwegian way of life. Its yet another potential Dutch Disease candidate, instead of oil, it is now oil-fund dividents.
But needless to say, the future looks pretty bright from Norway's perspective. A bit more global warming would be welcommed, as the winters are still cold. Who knows, maybe that will sort itself out as well.
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@fattony-yi2pu - so I do believe you live closer to this shitshow than me, as I live in a NATO country (not USA).
I don't know if you are really interested in the truth, or only the truth that you find most comforting.
Your statement:
Russophobia has been increasing in NATO countries since the 90s?
Is blatantly false. Whoever is telling you this is lying. After the USSR fell there was a genuine hope in the West that Russia would join the West, embrace democracy and rule of law. As you know by now this didn't happen in Russia.
Even after the Russian invasion of Crimea in 2014 did the view of Russia not very much deteriorate. And Russia had a pretty decent standing in the West. (Not great, but decent). Quite a lot of westerners liked the more conservative views that Russia liked to spread into the West.
Of course that all went downhill with Russias attack on Ukraine.
As for 'not attacking civilians'... Well, I'm sure that's what you are being told, reality is different. Have you even looked at the Russian military's equipment and doctrine? It is an artillery army. How does a GRAD MLRS system work? It flattens entire square kilometers, by volley fire. There is nothing surgical about it. It is mass artillery fire, kills everything, and then the Russian infantry moves in. Rinse and repeat. It is brutal, but it works.
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@fattony-yi2pu - it is true that we don't get to see any Ukrainian atrocities here in the West - and I'm sure those happen as well.
Rallying the people to war, like any good old fascist government isn't really hard when you have full control over the media and the political processes. Worked in Germany in 1930s, works in Russia in 2022.
Since you clearly have access to the Internet and are able to read and write English, you should be able to see through the Russian government lies. I mean, its not really hard if you try.
The truth, unlike the lie, is actually logically consistent over time. If B follows A, and B happens, then A was probably true. If C follows B, then it is even more likely that A was true.
Of course if you are not interested in the truth, but just want to follow your motherland, whatever it does - then do that - that's what millions of Germans did in WW2. And they felt bad about it ever since.
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@fattony-yi2pu - while it is true that Russia has had an ok ride under Putin, and he was/is popular (he used to be liked by a lot of people in the West too), this does not take away from the fact that Russia doesn't have a working democracy.
As soon as any leader over time passes about 40-50% popularity you should know there is an issue. Nobody is this popular over time in a real democracy. Power corrupts, absolute power corrupts absolutely.
Russians are much poorer than they should be due to rampant corruption and mis-management, and a lot of potential of Russia will now never happen. Its just sad.
2. So you mean it is ok for Russia to attack other smaller neighboring countries, if Russia just feels like it?
Think for 2 seconds, and you'll figure out why every Eastern European country wants to join NATO as soon as they got the chance. Unlike Russia, NATO doesn't expand by force, you will have to apply for NATO membership, and only if all existing members find you worthy, will you be accepted.
3. USA did not attack neither Russia, nor Ukraine. Stop blaming USA for things that Russia does. USA is no saint, but two wrongs doesn't make one right. Russia attacked Ukraine, Russia is killing Ukrainians and forcing Ukrainians to kill Russians in defense. The war could be over tomorrow if Russia withdraws from Ukraine.
4. Ukraine had nuclear weapons - it gave them away in the 1990 to Russia.
Are Russia afraid of Ukraine? Russia that has more nukes than any other country in the world? Russia that has 10 times the Ukrainian army? Saying Ukraine is, or ever was, a danger to Russia is just stupid, and you know it.
Again with the USA this and that and whatnot - stop blaming USA for Russian issues. Doesn't matter what Taiwan and China does (hopefully nothing).
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@fattony-yi2pu - just what exactly do you mean by: "btw, no one bombs peaceful Ukrainians, unlike America"
By peaceful, you mean civilian?
Time to get a bit educated, because you must live in Russian propaganda bubble, unlike all other nations in the world that demand Russia to stop this war and the killing of civilians.
Here is Russian rocket artillery. https://youtu.be/St1lbeBkTkc?t=94
Awesome stuff, kills everything.
Soldiers, kids, women, dogs, worms, old, and sick included.
So yeah, Ukrainian civilians die in the thousands by Russian unguided rocket artillery.
USA is not bombing anything at the moment, so not sure what you talk about.
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@fattony-yi2pu - you mean after the Russian army had flattened their villages and towns with MLRS systems, then the few civilians not already dead was propped up and given some "humanitarian aid" and shown of on Russian media.
And then when Ukraine counter attacked to liberate the town the Russians got hit and then they whine about it?
I'm just curious how it is to live in a world built on lies.
For example: Putin said before the invasion, he wouldn't invade - of course a lie. And the lies are just endlessly streaming out from Russia.
And can you tell me exactly what is the goal of the invasion?
Was it to strengthen and expand NATO, arm Ukraine to the teeth with Western weapons, kill thousands upon thousands of Russians and Ukrainians, flatten entire Ukrainian cities, annex Ukrainian territory, get Russia to look bad and evil, re-invigorate EU, mobilize young Russians, send peaceful protesters to jail, etc.
Because that's what has been achieved so far. Was this the plan all along?
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