Comments by "Twomix" (@twomix1822) on "Zeihan on Geopolitics" channel.

  1. I think that’s the plan in the first place — to force investors to “redirect capital away from places like Russia and China and redirect them to the US or at least to US allied countries”. Globalization (the system where you can go anywhere and trade with anyone) is indeed over.
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  2. True. For the rest of the world not so healthy. The worry isn't North America but the rest of the less food sufficient world.
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  3. One of the trending topic in Chinese social media is nowadays is "Run Xue" (润学). Due to pervasive censorship in PRC social media PRC netizens often uses code words (a mix of English/Chinese homophones) in order to confuse and evade the censors. "Run Xue" is one of them and it means "to escape and study abroad" (润 sounds like the english word "Run" while 学 means "to study" usually referring to study aboard) . Many young Chinese don't see much future with the way the PRC economy is heading so they try to escape abroad to find jobs and a new life if they could afford it under the pretext of studying abroad (it's actually pretty hard for many Chinese to leave their own country). Unlike most countries, PRC citizens needs permission from the government to leave China. From what I am hearing the PRC government has started to crackdown on issuing/renewing passports unless there is an absolute need. Most of those capable of escaping tends to be the wealthy or upper middle class PRC nationals.
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  4. Love your analysis. I'm buying your book for sure.
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  5. Putin is pure evil and our current Hitler.
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  6. "Fun to watch" indeed. 🤣🤣🤣
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  7. Russia is now effectively a Chinese slave/vassal state.
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  8. That's basically the history of Saudi Arabia. 🤣🤣🤣
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  9. I can see people commenting that don't believe the PRC will collapse but if you studied Chinese history a dynastic collapse doesn't happen overnight but rather it took decades after its institutions began failing. The Qing collapse didn't start in 1911, it's problems have been festering since the 1880-1890s and it took 20-30 years for the Qing state to totally collapse in 1911. The CCP dynasty will happen the same way, it won't collapse immediately in 2024 but probably around 2030-2034.
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  10. Each Russian general taken out by the Ukrainians is a good day IMHO.
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  11. If China let COVID rip.. I estimate the death count from COVID deaths would reach 10-20 million people dead just in China alone. The refusal to import US MRNA vaccine however is completely a political decision. The idea was, modern China is now as capable as the United States in creating a MRNA vaccine except the reality is they are not. The US being able to create a viable vaccine within 1 year span of time is nothing short of a medical miracle (most vaccines take 2-5 years to formulate). PRC could make one given time that is why they are buying time for themselves with the draconian lockdown. They see it as a nationalistic pride ("We don't need the US for vaccines.") as to allow US vaccine import would acknowledge that the PRC isn't as capable as the US and that would probably be the end of the Xi regime.
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  12. What the CCP will do is what they do best: steal, lie and cheat. In the coming months the PRC will announce they made some super breakthrough in chip design that puts them on par with Taiwan, US or South Korea and western media will buy it. Of course upon close scrutiny it will all be a lie (and of course the regime won’t let anyone scrutinize anything closely). This is how the CCP works.
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  13. In short, anything that is good for the country and the economy in general is bad for Wall Street, the banks and the stock market. Sounds good to me.
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  14. This is good to hear.
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  15. I love hearing logic and explanation from Peter.
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  16. The entire China GDP numbers were fabricated scam designed to lure western money and investments.
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  17. Thanks to Trump, the drug cartels now have a drug and undocumented immigrant freeway into the US. All hail Trump!!! 🤣🤣🤣 Oh yeah the US taxpayers paid for the drug/immigrant freeway.
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  18. Pretty much what Hitler said to justify Nazi Germany expansion and annexation of Czechoslovakia. Putin is simply saying the same things. But everyone knows its bullshit.
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  19. You maybe right. We are definitely starting to see evidence of tiny cracks in the CCP system. As the economy gets worse the cracks grows wider. We maybe seeing the final decade of the CCP system. I think China will split into 2 or more along the North/South. Places like Shenzhen and Shanghai will continue to do okay but interior and northern China will revert to their natural state (ruled by warlord fiefdoms).
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  20. For those who thinks China will be able to help Putin out economically will realize the Chinese economy is reaching a tipping point towards collapse too. Russian economy = collapsing, China economy = collapsing. Not a good sign for the globally intertwined economy. Frankly the era of globalization happy go lucky is about finished.
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  21.  @geminiXXX  ZERO COVID policy and OIL. While yes China and India are buying up all the cheap Russian oil at discount prices India's Russian oil only constitutes 5% of its fuel needs. Even the Chinese is maxed out at Russian oil at 15%. 80% of Russian oil have no other buyers and are basically sitting in storage rotting and fossil fuel comprises about 40% of its economy/GDP. So if you suddenly lose 30-35% of your GDP (in a matter of weeks) I think that's called collapsing. As for China, economy already slowing due to COVID + real estate issues + myriad of other issues (energy security) + Russian sanctions + uncontrollable debt, etc. I don't wanna type it all out. Some are now saying China would be lucky to make 0-2% GDP growth this year (PRC government targets 5.5% at least).
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  22. The PRC literally wrote out doctrines on how they think nowadays. Xi Jinping thought is now the primary and overriding decision making thought process nowadays. The CCP government doctrine literally says "the whole country should follow Xi's thoughts" and government officials need to literally study Xi's books in order to keep their job or get promoted.
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  23. Don't believe in the "fake niceness" overtures of the PRC. Wolf warrior diplomacy is still pretty much ingrained in Xi Jinping Thought. They are biding for time in order to try to get the US off their backs while they try to solve massive local issues like local government bankruptcy and the dying economy. The US should not fall for it.
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