Comments by "" (@dutchman7623) on "The Real News Network"
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Stockholm syndrome...
Everybody knows Russia has far more power than what it has shown in Ukraine. When this gets out of hand the war that emerges will destroy both Russia and NATO.
On the other hand Russia made a number of miscalculations.
They hoped that their forces would be welcomed in Ukraine as liberators, to restore the old fashioned law and order. But they were not.
When that did not happen, they wanted to overrun the Zelenski regime and replace it with a Russia friendly one, by a fast attack on Kiev.
But that did not work out, because there was more resistance than expected and they got stuck in the mud. It also allowed Ukraine time to get support, diplomatically, sympathy, and even in weapons. Do not forget, Ukraine did not have much when Russia invaded.
A quick regime change in Ukraine would be acceptable by the west, after all Ukraine once was part of the Soviet Union, and there are close cultural ties. It is not a heaven of democracy and freedom. The country was in disarray, corruption is high, it's a mess.
But yet again Russia did not deploy enough forces to take over Ukraine in a short time. Worse, it lost many troops and material.
Another big miscalculation was the support of the Russian nation towards the Russian government. When Russia is threatened in it's existence, everyone will support the government and do all they ask, for the sake of the motherland. But the Putin regime is less respected, did not bring wide prosperity, is deeply corrupt and run by oligarchs, and the Russians are not blind. They know Ukraine is not an enemy on their doorstep with the purpose to destroy Russia, they are still seen as family members, though a little obstinate.
And because Putin cannot get full support of the Russian nation, he has to use other means to get manpower, like mobilization.
The way he mobilized, getting recruits from minorities, from the countryside, and sparing the rich city class, has exposed the weakness of the Putin regime, and many started to get doubts about who they are serving, Russia or its happy few.
What Putin has created is another Afghanistan, if he wants to control Ukraine, it's going to take a long time, and money. And even within his own circles the support for long repression of a relative friendly nation is getting less. The oligarchs have seen their pleasant lives evaporate, their freedoms in western Europe limited, their business getting an enormous setback. Which is no problem if the end of the crisis can been predicted, but this is going to last a much longer time than anticipated.
So the question whether Russia or Ukraine will win this war is very strange. Ukraine can and will never defeat Russia. But Russia has made itself an enormous problem. Russia, or should we say the Putin regime, cannot 'win' this war either, occupation with a lot of violence maybe, but even that is not very plausible. Russia will survive, but I doubt whether the Putin regime will. The easy way out for Russia is a regime change and negotiations. But that will take a long time.
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