Comments by "Vale Tudo" (@valetudo1569) on "CNBC International Live" channel.

  1. If you have even a basic understanding of economics and policy then you know this whole argument of "Under Trump the economy was like this and under Biden its like this" is completely silly. However most voters have no concept of either of these
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  2. Michael Pettis is absolutely the guy to listen to on China. He understands its economy and the history of its economic model better than anybody I've ever heard. I encourage others to look him up on youtube and watch some of his interviews on this topic.
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  3. Your comment went south with the Bretton Wood thing. You, just like most of the gold standard people, don't understand how currencies work. US got cheap goods from China but they were also supposed to open their markets in return, not just sell cheap goods... that didn't happen. They also subsidize their industries like crazy which goes against fair trade practices so the money more flows their way. In addition, Kyle is talking about US money through investment, not money through Temu for cheap goods.
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  4. Love Pettis. He has quite a few interviews here on youtube
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  5. This dude sounds like a salesman for why this infrastructure package is a good thing for China. Lets be clear - this is a debt-fueled stimulus package through a channel that suffers massive diminishing returns on investment and should have been stopped 15 years ago or so. China is already facing massive debt to GDP ratios and this will make the de-leveraging that is to come - much more painful.
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  6. Support for these executive orders have massive support from Dems and Republicans. So goodluck with your nonsense.
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  7. Lol okay. How about stop bullying people in SC Sea and taking their territory. That's totally not provoking anything...
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  8.  @spider6660  ​ So this is factually not true. China hides a lot of it's total debt by only giving the debt of the central government, they don't include the massive amount of corporate debt held by the private and state sectors, nor the local government debt. All of these stat websites only show the numbers China officially states, because normally you could trust those from any of the major economies (not in China's case). In 2019 the Institute of International Finance (IIF) estimated their total public date was over 300% of GDP. They have only added to that debt since the pandemic began (especially as of recently) and economic growth has slowed further. The South China Morning post said - China’s overall debt was 270.1 per cent of gross domestic product at the end of 2020, up from 246.5 per cent at the end of 2019 So, what you said is incorrect. They actually have much much more debt to GDP ratio than all of the countries you mentioned. They just cherry pick which "debt" they choose to list or officially state as "China's debt to GDP" to give some context - the US has a major debt problem and their debt to GDP ratio was 126%
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  9. Nothing to do with anything
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  10.  @freeman041  They absolutely do need to understand the economy. That is the dumbest take I've ever heard
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  11.  @Anonymint-vj7bt  I don't think he's a "renowned China expert". He's just an economist who has extensive knowledge of about their economic model. He doesn't quite say that.... he said the amount of investment that was in real estate cannot simply be shifted over to technology because it's so large that the technology sector couldn't absorb it all productively. Especially since technology isn't hurting for capital.
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  12. For every action there is an opposite and equal reaction. China didn't consider the reaction to their expansionism into the SC Sea
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  13. The thing I disagree with this gentleman is that China is in a better place Japan was. I'd say at best it's mixed...some things are better, and some are worse. China has more control of it's financial sector than Japan did and stricter capital controls, however - It took Japan 20 years into their crisis before their population started shrinking, they were also more developed, and more of China's economy is held in the real estate sector than Japan's was. So at best it's a mix, and if it will be better or worse than Japan's situation is an unknown.
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  14. This is a small clip. Look Pettis up and youtube to understand his total thesis... he's incredibly knowledgeable on the Chinese economy. He even has many former students who became economists in the Chinese government and they consult him often.
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  15. China has surpassed as a total of debt to GPD %. I think you don't understand math
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  16. So much anti-west Russian bot nonsense on this comment section!
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  17. He should get way more attention
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  18. Well US is becoming less of a customer and more of a competitor to oil producers, since they're the #1 producing nation at this moment... so yes, of course they're losing influence, but for the right reasons at least.
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  19. You're the same as Trump people in US
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  20. This Indian news-caster has great hair and a great beard
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  21. Yet my entire building just got locked down for 7 days, all because one person with a positive case was inside a super market that some of us go to.
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  22. The countries they are in want them there, and it's their right to have them
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  23.  @yoboya384  Yeah I'm all for that. As an American who grew up with Filipinos and has been been to the Philippines many times - I'm happy and hope to see their armory and economy grow stronger. Cheers
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  24. This man is absolutely right
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  25.  @robertwang7825  Whoever said anything about pushing them to brink... I'm just saying by nature, countries who run surpluses tend to be more vulnerable during a trade war. Also, its been a while since there was double digit growth
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  26. Hmm I'm confused as to what you're implying. There are definitely technology companies in critical areas that would be willing to invest in China for their own benefit - and to the benefit of the CCP's military. Especially the CCP is dangling some low hanging fruit with perks above their head. Businesses do what they do and act in their own best interest, if the CCP offers them a lucrative investment deal - they will take it. Even if it hurts the national security of their country.
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  27.  @_rohit97  Wow you think I'm a PHD? I'm so flattered 😎
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  28. GDP is a horrible measure of value creation, especially in a state run economy focused on that number rather than real value. I live in China and jobs are hard to find right now - not just where I live but in most places. Wages are flat or actually down. How can this be possible in an economy growing 5%? Because if you dig a hole and fill it with cement - that is also GDP, but it gives very little value.
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  29. Manufacturing does well and thats why consumption is doing poorly. Wealth is simply being diverted from infrastructure investment into manufacturing... all at the cost of household income and thus consumption. Mark my words - as manufacturing goes up, consumption goes down. Household savings is what fuels the ability to lend to the manufacturing sector... and high savings means low consumption. They are inversely related
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  30. Yeah and it was insanely high at that time too. What is your point
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  31. Problem is people can get fooled by charismatic individuals and propaganda. Your theory works better if people were actually well informed with good information, not so much with media nonsense that is today and persuasive politicians
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  32. Hmm I don't think this gentleman is accurate. Italy has stated more than once that all the BRI did was increase imports from China but not much the other way.. this simply was a cost with none of the promised benefits. This is verifiable in their trading data. Not just something that's made up
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  33. "They don't want to go into debt like the United States" yeah but their actual debt to GDP ratio is 2.5x that of the US. So it could be they're already heeps in debt (hence the cutting the head off the debt-fueled real estate sector) and don't have enough debt capacity like they did in 2015 and 2008. They also love supply-side stimulus and as the gentleman said - that isn't as effective as it used to be when you've built all your roads, airports, bridges, etc...already.
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  34. As an American - I wish this guy could be our President. He seems like what America used to stand for
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  35. Actually quite the opposite. He always parrots Beijing's message. I also find it odd that these CNBC international videos almost always get very little views - but this one, that happens to be favorable to Beijing - somehow gets so many views and attention? And your comment gets so many upvotes with very little comments? I would not be shocked if these are fake and bot accounts pushing this up
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  36. This is just fake and disingenuous. So GDP is not important? Lol okay guy... is this a real account or some Russian bot shit?
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  37. "China is more concerned about geopolitical issues than its economy " is a better way to say it. Unfortunately there seems to be a disconnect in understanding that the entire reason China got so much geopolitical power in the first place is because of its economy. Don't forget what got you to the stage... Also, this woman is a liar. The banks are on the receiving end of all this bad debt and are responsible for it. They are absolutely cheap for a reason
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  38. demographics are more of a medium and especially longterm problem. Debt is a near-term problem.... but regardless, they have a near term problem (debt), medium + longterm problem (demographics). It doesn't bode well for the Chinese economy
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  39. Lol you don't know anything about economics, do you
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  40. It would cut both ways, but it would be deeper on one side for sure
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  41.  @robertwang7825  Listen man, you're just throwing things out that having nothing to do with my original point. Thats all well good, my point is - both will be cut, but one will be cut deeper. Thats all.... I'm not saying China will be on the brink or collapse. Its just the nature of the country who has more to sell is more vulnerability in a trade war. I didn't make that up, its just how it is for obvious objective reasons. Thats all
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  42. It would have been important to mention that Chinese EV's get an insane amount of subsidies from the government
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  43. I wouldn't go so far as what the title suggests. In a normal/market economy, this would be true... but the Chinese government will use as much debt as needed to make sure they hit that target. GDP is not a good measure of value creation though, and much of that GDP is likely to come from unproductive spending
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  44. Lol you have no knowledge of economics do you? China's large savings is exactly why they are in this issue... what a silly guy....and you're here bragging about China having high savings lol
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  45.  @roberts2697  I love these nonsensical comments from people who don't understand trade surpluses and deficits. I'm not even going to waste my breath trying to explain to you the stupidity of your comment. Go look up Michael Pettis and read a little bit about what his argument is, come back to me, and then we'll talk.
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  46.  @chasx7062  You're either the same guy as fba or just another extremely ignorant person. No need, you will soon see why deflation is an even worse problem than inflation.
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  47.  @ssuwandi3240  The comparison is quite fair because they are following a very similar economic model. Although Japan was technically democratic with a private banking industry - they didn't quite manage it like that. They still set loan quotas and the state still directed where the money went ... it's why their situations are both so similar. Households got a low share of GDP in the form of wages, consumer spending was low, extreme over-investment in real estate and infrastructure, deflation, high debt to gdp ratio, used "window guidance" to instruct banks which sectors to lend to (whether they needed it or not), high exports and trade surpluses with the rest of the world. The situations are so similar because the economic models were/are so similar. There are some things that are better about China"s situation over Japan's but also some things that are definitely worse.. So its might not be 100% the same, but odds are they will be similar and could be better or worse. We will find out It's important to note that this economic model was not invented by the Chinese, or the Japanese... it's a known and documented investment-led economic model and it has always ended up with either a violent rebalancing (US in the 1920's, Brazil in the 1960's) or a long, drawn out period of rebalancing that results in prolonged stagnation (Japan and probably China).
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  48.  @cristinaximera9663  Lol okay
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  49.  @chew5461  Absolute nonsense. Anyways, all the more reason for Italy to ditch the BRI then right. No reason to be China's dumping ground
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  50. The only thing wrong is about him saying "Xi's the boss so he's gonna have to own the consequences." which is actually the exact opposite of what being the Big Boss means in China. At most, local officials will be blamed and purged. Much of the deaths will be covered up by reporting them as flu deaths and the news will also not report any of the chaos. Anybody who speaks out will be squashed, just like all those protesters who later got arrested at their homes.
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