Comments by "Vale Tudo" (@valetudo1569) on "China’s Drought and Power Crunch" video.

I can't say how much I disagree, for these reasons: 1. The time of debt-fueled property growth is gone (30% of GDP and 70% of household wealth) 2. The Zero-Covid policy is on for the foreseeable future, and even when gone - has created economic scarring in both business activity and consumers psychology 3. Current regulatory crackdowns in tech, real estate, and education... with an uncertainty of future regulations on a dime, without notice. 4. Chinese companies delisting from the NYSE. HK market cannot come close to making up for this. 5. Potential for war in the Taiwan straights within the next 10 years 6. Population/demographics - and in my opinion, the most significant an inescapable of the 6
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You can make that bet, I would not...
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Investors have just been psychologically conditioned for the last 10-20 years to think China is only up up up, and that this is just a blip. They don't fully understand the structural implications of what's going on, and how it fundamentally alters the growth trajectory going forward 1. The time of debt-fueled property growth is gone (30% of GDP and 70% of household wealth) 2. The Zero-Covid policy is on for the foreseeable future, and even when gone - has created economic scarring in both business activity and consumers psychology 3. Current regulatory crackdowns in tech, real estate, and education... with an uncertainty of future regulations on a dime, without notice. 4. Delisting from the NYSE 5. Potential for war in the Taiwan straights within the next 10 years 6. Population/demographics - and in my opinion, the most significant an inescapable of the 6
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@blokin5039 I swear I saw almost an identical comment today under a Chinese name? If by "a tiny bank" you mean over 2 dozen banks in different provinces...than sure
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@blokin5039 There is Henan Xincaifu Group which controls 13 rural banks in Henan Yuzhou Xinminsheng Village Bank Shangcai Huimin County Bank Zhecheng Huanghuai Community Bank Guzhen Xinhuaihe Village Bank I haven't got the energy to find you the rest, but it's not "a tiny bank". Please stop spreading your lies to defend your 国家
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@workingguy-OU812 Check out Michael Pettis. He's a world renowned Professor/economist at Peking University in China. He breaks down the problems facing the economy so well. I'm actually surprised he's as open as he is, seeing as how he works at a Chinese university in Beijing
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Not anytime soon, but they might try 10 years from now or so... if they can reduce their reliance on the outside world (a big IF) To be honest, I think Xi would rather see China fall into a great depression/famine than fail on taking Taiwan back.... that is a scary thing and a real possibility when a dictator has that much power
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@blokin5039 When did I say anything about "total banking volume" or any of that other nonsense? You put those words there, not me. You said it was "a tiny bank". That was false, and you know that. Now you're trying to backtrack Stop trying to defend a bad situation. Every country has it's problems and China is no different. Bank runs are serious, regardless of their form. Learn to accept some criticism and stop trying to feel it's your need to spin things to make China look better then it is
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@phildefer2342 When did I say I wish their banks would collapse? You're on drugs, man. I'll one up you with a history lesson - After WWII, the US rebuilt much of Europe and created the freedom of navigation principle that became international law. For the first time in human history - countries were allowed to trade anywhere in the world safely, with the protection of the US navy. This lead to the globalization that created much of the global growth of the last 50 years. The very same globalization that allowed China to sell to the world and become power they are today. China especially benefitted from this because - it had no functional navy at the time and had no way to defend it's shipments beyond it's borders, in addition to a surplus of cheap manufacturing. The freedom of navigation allowed them to export their manufacturing by using the waterways and safety guaranteed by the US navy to trade with countries globally. China's navy today still benefits from the freedom of navigation principle to safely travel the seas - as their navy only has about a 1,000 mile range at best. Ironically this is the same freedom of navigation they are violating in the South China Sea. So before you tell me about 2008, go back a little further and consider what even gave China the ability to open up to and use global markets in the first place
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@blokin5039 I've already proven to you it's not just "a tiny rural bank". It's you who is burying their head in the sand. I don't claim all of China is on fire. I think they have massive structural problems though (besides rural banks) that is going to significantly reduce their GDP growth going forward. That is all It seems you just cannot accept any bad news about China, and seek to downplay it. I cannot agree with you
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@blokin5039 Lol you're a madman. Talking to you about China is exactly like talking to a Donald Trump Supporter about Donald Trump. No objectivity, no insight or awareness, and consumed by bias. I'm not going to waste my time on you anymore. But I will say this - and mark my words - China will never get to a high income economy. 1. Lack of structural reforms in the economy 2. Decreasing/aging population + significant decrease in productivity growth. 3. Low consumer consumption 4. Lack of growth drivers going forward (bye bye property sector) 5. Lack of innovation #2 is the biggest and most inescapable. Anyways I'll leave you with that, have a good day sir and only time will tell who is correct.
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