Comments by "Vale Tudo" (@valetudo1569) on "How China Is Upgrading Its Air Bases to Prepare for War With Taiwan | WSJ" video.

  1. Kevin Rudd (former AU PM) put it best when estimating China's timeline for Taiwan. 1. China would need to first insulate itself sufficiently from the damage of the global financial system (sanctions). This would include securing energy, food, and other commodities in RMB. Since Rudd first said this, we have seen them making strides in doing this with unilateral trade deals with Brazil, African countries, Arab nations, and more. 2. China would need to build up it's military to the point that they point that they are sure they would win. They are working towards both of these goals but they have a long way to go and will need many years if it is to be achieved. Will they attack Taiwan? - That is probably the goal. Is it a sure bet and will it be soon? - Probably not
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  2. ​ @fenglihei  You clearly only read Chinese propaganda. 88% of world trade is in the USD. The world is still in the dollar denominated era. Re-read what I said - I said that China is making progress on bilateral agreements in Yuan but it has a long way to go. Both are true. Yes the 45 countries that signed on to sanctions on Russia include the biggest economies in the world. China not having foreign debt is irrelevant. Most of Japan's debt in the 1990's was domestic debt. They lost 3 decades of growth due to that debt. I never said China was borrowing from Russia. I have no idea where you got that from. US and other EU countries have price capped Russia's oil and gas. A way to minimize their profits while not hurting global supplies. I'll end with this - my original comment was a fair analysis and you come in here with your nationalism and emotion, angry that somebody is saying something you don't like about your 国家。Knock it off, and learn to have a good faith conversation instead of trying to make this a fight over the pride of your country. Everything I said here was fair, objective, and without my personal feelings involved. The same cannot be said about what you have said
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  3.  @lagrangewei  I don't agree that they have achieved both and I also don't agree that China's current numbers overtake the current might of the USN. Most military experts agree that China needs more time before that happens. I've seen many estimate it to be about 2027. Russia can help but its not enough. Hence why China is trying to strike bilateral energy deals with other countries in Yuan. I think China will try to get Taiwan to submit without a fight but I personally don't think that will happen. If it doesn't happen they will be prepared to take it forcefully and I believe that's what they are currently doing.
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  4.  @fenglihei  China could not survive this as much of its economy relies on foreign trade. It also extremely reliant on foreign imports of energy, food, agricultural products, and commodities. This is why I said in my original comment that China is working to insulate itself from the global financial system and secure bilateral deals on Yuan. I think you are very aware of how the economy was before trade and opening up...and China instantly getting cut off from that much foreign trade would not simply snap it back to that time - it would be much worse as China relies much more heavily on foreign trade now than it did back then. As I said in my other comment though - You are not trying to have a good faith conversation with me based on facts. My original comment was fair and you are here arguing with emotion and trying to prove my wrong. I'm not interested in talking to a nationalist who is not looking to have an honest conversation and only trying to defend your country. Have a good day
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  5.  @fenglihei  Take your emotions out of this and try to have a good faith conversation or gain understanding., You are simply trying to defend your country. You came here to attack me, and I have no interest because you are not here to have a conversation - you are here to fight and win an argument, fueled by your national pride. No thanks
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  6. ​ @chris-vr5pm I could be wrong but I think he means in the event that China invades or is about to invade...
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  7. ​ @bobsmith3983 I try to get my news from various global sources, with as little political bias as possible - even if it tells me things I don't like. If they have a bias I try to keep that in mind as I listen to them and take what they say with a grain of salt. I try my best to look at objective numbers and opinions.
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  8.  @fenglihei  You are free to believe that, if you want
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  9.  @PlaYer-sn5or  I'm not sure why you posted any of this. This has nothing to do what I said in my comment
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  10. ​ @THarshavardhanReddy  ​ I could be wrong but I think he means in the event that China invades or is about to invade...
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  11.  @vlhc4642  I disagree that China's drone industry "carried" the war. The original posters comment is very valid
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  12. So that is actually something that would work against China. If they attack those bases - they also buy a response from those countries. IE Japan is expected to and already preparing to join the fight because they also know the US bases on their territory will be attacked. This will greatly complicate things for China if they now have to fight the US and China. In addition, with adding the bases in the Philippines - it makes taking out those air bases much harder. If just in Japan that is very doable... but with the addition of the bases in the Philippines? A very very tall order to keep all those airfields down
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  13.  @johnbrowne2145  ​ I think most military experts would agree that as of today - the US military is still ahead of China's. The problem is the US military is spread out all over the world, while China seems to be laser focusing its buildup in the Indo Pacific. So China's military, theoretically, wouldn't need to be as great as the US to win a war in the indo-pacific. At the same time, Japan and maybe even Australia would likely be involved in a conflict over Taiwan. I'm obviously not a military expert, but from what I've read - as of today, China is not in a position to take Taiwan by force due to intervention by the US and probably Japan. Most theoretical war game scenarios forecasted for 2027 showed US+ Japan + Taiwan edging out a win, but each suffering massive damage and losses. War games are just theoretical simulations though so take them with a giant grain of salt.
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  14.  @densyst  You call yourself a "westerner" but you type in English identical to Chinese who have learned English as a foreign language. 我知道主要是因为我住在中国和会说中文
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  15.  @lagrangewei  So attacking somebody requires many more times the force of those defending. As we see in Russia and Ukraine - Russia has a much bigger army, but they are the attackers and so its still quite difficult because you need many more times overwhelming force. This is a well known concept in war and you can google it for more details from people much more knowledgeable than myself. The problem with attacking Taiwan is the Taiwan straight. China cannot rely on airpower alone, and the bases in the Philippines, Japan, and the ballistic missiles Japan is going to set up on the north island chain around Taiwan will make it very hard for China to move behind the island. This will force them to rely on airpower and an amphibious assault from Taiwan's east coast. You can look at the battle of Normandy for an idea of how difficult this is and why China prefers not to do this.
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  16. This would suggest China is planning for a conflict with Taiwan
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  17.  @PlaYer-sn5or US isn't going to recognize Taiwan as an independent country, and is most likely pressuring Taiwan to also not do so. US wants to avoid a war, as it would wreak havoc on the globe and there would be no winners. All of this military build up is actually to deter a war, not to start one. Anyways, I don't agree that its up to the US. I think Xi wants to be the one to unify Taiwan with China. Ideally this is without force, but eventually with force if need be. I believe the "with force" scenario is what China is preparing for.
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  18.  @l0lzor123  Hmm Xi also told the PLA to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027. Doesn't mean he'll do it in 2027, but that they should be ready by then. Yes I agree it will be something the US and allies will be aware of before it happens, similar to Ukraine.
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  19.  @cpengching4717  This is true lol
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  20.  @Mike-bo1oj  Who ever said or implied that?
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  21.  @steve1750  I think you make it much more simple than it is. I doubt those countries could replace and supply China with all the massive amount of energy and commodities that it needs. If you think that Russia becoming a global pariah and vassal state of China is "succeeding" than be go ahead and believe that
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  22.  @damionkeeling3103  I disagree that ship numbers are more important. It's more about technology and effectiveness. I'm gonna make a crude example but imagine 100 guys with swords vs 10 guys with assault rifles. The assault rifles would mow down those 100 swordsman without effort. That is an extreme example and not saying China has swords and US has assault rifles, just trying to make a point that technology/effectiveness > more important than numbers.
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  23.  @frankinbm2176  Never said there wouldn't be pain for the dollar or the globe if China was hit with sanctions. This is why its in the best interest of all countries for there not to be a conflict and why its trying to be avoided at all costs. I disagree the hegemony of the dollar would collapse and likely the EU would be on board with sanctions - they have stated more than once that if push came to shove they'd side with the US.
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  24.  @attilaharangozo1044  Thats not my take, but who knows for sure really.
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