Comments by "Vale Tudo" (@valetudo1569) on "Bloomberg Podcasts" channel.

Michael Pettis has written books about this. He said the reason the trade deficits (like the US) go down when tariffs are used isn't so much because people buy less things from other countries - its because real incomes go down and so people have less money to buy things in general...thus indirectly resulting in less imports, but for the wrong reasons
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@JonTan-z3e Because what ends up happening is: A: people spending more of their income on higher priced imports B: The imports are so expensive that they pay for more expensive domestically made products. The end result is the same: People pay higher prices for good that results in less total household income because of the cost of goods
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I wouldn't call their problems "molehills". It isn't collapsing however, but much more likely is Japan-esque stagnation
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@NekoShogun34 fairy tales. Some companies may benefit from tariff barriers but the overall drop in income is a net negative for Americans. The problem is not the lack of tariffs - the problem is the strength of the dollar. Yes, a currency being too strong can be a bad thing. If we can actually reduce the strength of the dollar - our exports become more competitive. Tariffs are simply a transfer of household wealth to the government. Its a tax that makes us poorer.
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@russcontact Hmm I'm confused if you mis-replied to me. I'm not arguing in favor of tariffs. This might be towards somebody else
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@Cotswolds1913 It is but I'm talking about the net effect. Although some demand will shift to US domestic producers and thus create new jobs, however, the people paying for those goods will be doing so at a much higher price. Its all documented that the net effect is overall lower household disposable income due to paying higher prices for goods. There is also the issue of higher prices causing the feds to raise interest rates.. which would also hurt growth. The issue is the strength of the dollar... its actually too strong, and this creates our trade deficit. There are plenty of ways to lower it without hurting households too much. I wish Trump would explore those more instead of using tariffs
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@Cotswolds1913 First of all - type less, its not that serious. US having high interest rates is a problem China wishes it has. Its from growth being too strong, while China is stuck in a deflation spiral from growth being too low. Btw, newsflash - China's debt to GDP is far worse than that of the US. But you wouldn't know that, would you. China's growth model is failing, just as Japan's did - because they followed the exact same growth model and learned nothing from Japan's fate. You tell me, who put those people in poverty that CCP "lifted up"?
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@Cotswolds1913 You're absolutely wrong. Anybody who knows anything knows that China hides a lot of its debt in its local governments while keeping its central government balance sheet relatively clean. China is the most imbalanced economy in history, before that it was Japan. Their investment led growth model is coming to an end and guys like you will keep bending over backwards to defend them. Good thing for me is - time will prove me right. All I have to do is wait
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@Cotswolds1913 So, who put all those people in poverty that the CCP lifted up?
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I bet most Republicans aren't even aware that we are at 4% unemployment
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Anybody who says China is collapsing is watching clickbait nonsense....the system doesn't work like that. What's more likely to happen is Japan-like stagnation.
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@pikachus5m166 You're thinking too micro. Japan's problem was over-investment into nonproductive assets, as is China's. Initially the investment is productive, and you see massively positive ROI, but over time there are diminishing returns until they become nonproductive and the ROI becomes negative. This is China's problem... using debt to invest in infrastructure and real estate was initially a good thing, but this expired about 15 years or so (差不多), and then it became a negative return. The economy is unbalanced and it will rebalance, no question.....the question is how long will it take. Historically the two choices have been very quickly with high pain, like the US great depression, or drawn out stagnation like Japan... I personally believe it will be the ladder than the former.
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The election spending was already baked into the cake and factored in to the expectations. It just didn't meet the expectations of the very high bar
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