Comments by "Vale Tudo" (@valetudo1569) on "Can China's economy afford a war with Taiwan? | DW Business Special" video.

  1. The projections for China's economic growth by the IMF is way too high. Zero Covid is still a giant weight on the economy, and will cause economic scarring in terms of consumer spending, business investment...and accelerate businesses leaving. The major crackdowns in education, technology, and especially real estate will also put a massive dent in their growth. The most important is real estate. It's been fueled by debt and responsible for 30% of GDP + 70% of household wealth. The era of 5%+ growth is over for China. I predict 2-3% for the rest of the decade and then after that? The population decline really kicks in and we see Japan era stagnation...but worse, because their per capita GDP won't be nearly as high as Japan's was
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