Comments by "Vale Tudo" (@valetudo1569) on "The Chinese economy is headed for a much bigger slowdown than we have today, says Shehzad Qazi" video.

  1. Its going to be a repeat of Japan in the 1990's
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  2.  @Charles-qe7kc  Lol ofcooourse you had to throw the US in there...everything revolves around that. Look, China has followed Japan's economic model to a T. I'm not sure by what metric you're measuring "resilience" but this growth story has been played out and studied quite a few times in history. It goes the same - massive investments in infrastructure, manufacturing, and often real estate. This leads to breakneck growth, but also a huge accumulation of debt and bubbles. The bubble pops, just like the real estate sector did in Japan in the 90's, and then you have many years of low growth or stagnation. The crazy part is every country knows this path and says it will switch to consumption when the right times come - but none of them manage to do it.
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  3.  @Charles-qe7kc  The way that Japan and China were able to fund the massive investments in infrastructure and manufacturing is by suppressing wages and driving up savings (hence the low consumption). Its a tried and true model for rapid development (Vietnam is also doing this now). Professor Michael Pettis in Peking University does the best job at explaining this and I recommend you look him up. He's a respected economist even within China. I cannot agree China is on the best path because we are not seeing a strengthening social safety net, on the contrary, many provinces are struggling with debt so much that they are cutting back on the social safety net. I have not seen any indication there are significant efforts to stimulate the demand side, only the supply side... and that is exactly the issue of how this problem happened in the first place. Countries know they need to eventually shift to consumption for economic growth to continue - but very few ever do it, and theory is that groups of people get very powerful from the old model and use that power to obstruct its change. Right now we are seeing a ton of supply side investment switching from real estate over to manufacturing... so its the same old supply side playbook, and why consumption will continue to lag until the entire model changes.
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  4.  @后宫后  Lol wow so clever, did you think of that all by yourself?
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