Comments by "Cyberfunk" (@cyberfunk3793) on "Veritasium" channel.

You have found a bug in the simulation.
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Any philosopher that thinks 1/2 is the correct answer should find a new job.
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@1BP6 but the question wasn't about what would be the probability of a future coin flip coming out heads.
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@1BP6 Yup, so the chance of that coin flip having realised as heads isn't 50% anymore in that situation after the fact.
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@1BP6 Yes, believe it or not, something that already happened obviously has the probability of 1. If you don't understand any of this, why are you talking about it?
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@1BP6 Your talking absolute nonsense. Think about a game where heads means she will be flown to India while sleeping and tails means she will be taken to Brazil while at sleep. If she wakes up in Brazil and knows that, according to your logic the odds of tails having been the result are still 50%.
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@1BP6 "No, in the situation you posed, you already laid out the result i.e., she woke up in brazil." Yes to make a point: the odds aren't calculated based on the odds of the initial coin toss before that toss happened, like you are doing. My example is an analogy demonstrating your obviously faulty logic. With the brazil example you know the odds in that situation are 100% depending on the place you wake up in, and in the original problem the odds are 1/3 based on the way the game was originally set up which you know. "Based on the concept of probability, we can formulate a hypothetical scenario and create a probability based on every possible state in that scenario." Yes we can. If we repeat the experiment 100 times, heads is the reality in 50 wake up cases and tails in 100 wake up cases giving us the probabilities of 1/3 and 2/3.
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@ The objective side as in the one that is correct is 1/3 and the subjective misguided side is the one being tricked by the fact that the probabilities of past events are 1 because they have already happened and we just don't know them yet.
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If Sleeping Beauty is asked what is the probability the coin came up tails, her answer should be 1/2. If the question is "what was the result of the coin toss" That is the same question.
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@jonathanlavoie3115 "Answer to that question is 50%" False.
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@JoaoGomesPT69 1/3 is the correct answer, I don't know what is so controversial about it.
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@peternelson7048 "The answer is 1/2." It's obviously not.
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@peternelson7048 "The probability is 0.5 so that is what she should answer." No it's not, the question wasn't about what the probability was before the coin was tossed, the question was clearly about something that had already occurred.
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@peternelson7048 Nobody asked what is the probability of a future coin toss. The coin was already tossed when the question was asked. The answer is obviously not 50% and no person with mental faculties would say it is.
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@peternelson7048 Yep, very explicit questions: what is the chance that you are here now after a coin toss that resulted in heads. And the answer to that is 1/3. So if she was asked to guess what the result of the coin toss had been, she should answer tails because that would maximise her chances of being correct.
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@peternelson7048 The question is right in the video: "what is the probability that the coin came up heads" Which obviously is talking about something that already happened which is why the "came up" is in the sentence. Clarified also on the wikipedia page about the problem: "and is asked what her degree of belief that the outcome of the coin toss is Heads ought to be when she is first awakened." I understand the problem just fine, but you obviously don't and would answer incorrectly 1/2 that would result in more false answers if you were in place of the test subject, further proving your logic is faulty. If you had to guess what the result of the coin toss was in her place, when you were woken up, what would you guess and why exactly?
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@jonathanlavoie3115 "The question is clearly about "the probability that the coin came up Heads". Answer to that question is 50%" You must be trolling if you think so. You got the question correct, but answer obviously wrong. If you had to guess if it was heads or tails in her place, according to your logic you could pick either one because the chance at that point is 50/50. Can't you do elementary school math?
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@peternelson7048 Obviously you can't explain it further, because you are obviously wrong. It's a trivial question that anybody can answer with a simple simulation if they can't figure it out in their head. By answering 1/2 one loses in the simulation more often than based on 1/3.
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False
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@heronekkotheanimer7386 "so her only guiding point would be her understanding of the fact that a coin has only two outcomes" Nope, she knows the rules of the game.
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@gkeepleft "she was asked what the probability is" After the coin flip had already occured. Obviously the are not asking her about any future coin flip odds, 50:50 is obviously an incorrect answer and if she was to use a strategy of guessing based on that, she would lose more often than based on 1/3 strategy, further proving every person saying 50/50 is clueless.
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@elvinebovine1297 It's trivial to simulate this and see on what strategy she would be more successful with her guessing. If her strategy is based on 1/3 thinking she will win more often than if she follows the 1/2 thinking. If that isn't enough of an objective proof what is the reasonable logic then I don't know what is.
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@elvinebovine1297 I don't know what you are babbling on about. With 1/3 thinking she will make more correct guesses so it's objectively the correct answer based on math.
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@elvinebovine1297 Again if she follows your logic, she makes less correct guesses. if she follows the 1/3 logic, she makes more correct guesses. It's like claiming your logic at making predictions is correct, when it is basic math to show that it's not.
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@elvinebovine1297 ". No rule says she can't inform herself" I think it said she doesn't remember and that was obviously the starting point of the puzzle, so don't change the parameters as it's not meant to be trick question.
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@elvinebovine1297 The premise of the puzzle obviously assumes no memory like markings that you suggest. It's not a trick question so don't try to think out some trick answers to it.
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@glennsampson5945 instead of talking about probabilities of past events, that are actually 1 or 0 because they have already been determined, we can convert the problem to something that fits better: "There is a letter that contains the results of the coin toss and the question is that what is the chance that she will see heads v. tails when she opens the letter?" And if you want to have some way to know what is the rational way to interpret the problem: pick the interpretation that leads to more correct answers from the sleeping beauty. If she bases her thinking on the 1/2 logic, she will make more wrong guesses than if she bases her thinking on 1/3 logic. Hence makes sense to select that 1/3 logic.
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