Comments by "N Velsen" (@nvelsen1975) on "How is the war going? — Mid July 2023" video.

  1.  @tomk3732  That ten-to-one number has become vastly outdated with Russian production not keeping up and logistical problems. The detected fires (from space) suggest that currently (11-7) Ukraine is smashing up the Cherson region that's still controlled by the Russians, and the Russians are bombing Krivoy Rih and Osokarivka (across the Dnipro basin)
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  2. Uhm, do you keep up with the frontline developments? Ukraine is taking ground all over through relatively small leapfrog advances that allow them to then bring up the AA umbrella behind them. Sure, deeply penetrating armoured thrusts and air-based 'rollover' offensives are impossible due to Russian airpower, which is to say helicopters. But what's the value of that fact if there are angry infantrymen tossing grenades into your trench? And if you escape, tomorrow they'll be tossing grenades into your next trench. Besides of that, a scenario of Ukrainian air superiority is unlikely to the extreme. Yes, with AMRAAMS and better radars like in the F16 Ukraine will be able to match or (if they match western performance levels so quickly) roflstomp Russian combat air patrols. All Russia will be able to do is toss long range anti-Awacs missiles at them and pray. This is true. Yet, that doesn't change Russian (or more accurately Soviet) superlative GBAD assets assure a stalemate in the air. Unless Ukraine finds a bunch of F35's in a shed somewhere (and I hope they do) there is not going to be a Yugoslavia or Desert Storm scenario of Ukraine's airforce walking over the Russian GBAD and airforce at the same time to establish air superiority. Knowing that an air stalemate is the best possible, everything on top of a stalemate is wasted effort.
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  3.  @arturobianco848  Well there is an air stalemate. Both sides only engage in 'inevitable' (as in: no amount of AA would stop it) use of air assets like lobbing unguided rockets and using drones. Basically the only form of air warfare in the war right now that's actually subject to any tactical consideration is that Russia has found to way to have the limited number of surviving Ka-52s fire missiles at advancing vehicles from their maximum range, creating a defensive rapid-response force to a specific type of attack that way. All the rest is basically mutually denied.
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  4.  @tomk3732  Sounds like Russian BS. That's never happened during the entire war.
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