Comments by "N Velsen" (@nvelsen1975) on "Grain deal stand-off shows Russia's maritime weakness" video.

  1. Putin miscalculated Erdogan's motives badly. Erdogan brokered the grain deal, it's 'his' deal. Putin pulling out causes Erdogan to lose face and that's what prickly dictators hate to have done to them. Backgrounds: Turkey and Turkish interests are harmed greatly by Russia using famine as a weapon. The Turkish economy is in trouble thanks to Erdogan, he could use a distraction. The Turkish navy is more than capable of holdings its own against the Black Sea fleet. Putin misunderstood that he had no path out of this. When Turkish grain ships broke the Russian blockade, he could back down or attack. If he attacked the Turkish navy would have a reason to come defend their ships. Then Putin can back down or attack. In a shooting war between the Turkish and Russian navy, the Russians would likely lose, and if they win it's a casus belli, the Montreux treaty wouldn't stop NATO ships any longer as Turkey has now picked a side. All of those scenarios end in a loss for Putin and a win for Erdogan. So obviously Turkey was going to enforce their grain deal.
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