Comments by "Trevor Sutherland" (@trevorsutherland5263) on "The Telegraph"
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What's this the 5th or 6th time in the past two weeks they've tried? All repulsed. As a longtime military historian, one of the things I most respect about RU is how they keep so many old weapons, for decades even, long beyond when you'd think they would be useful, and here they are in 2024 still punishing their opponents. NATO by contrast, so vastly wealthy for so long, throws away virtually anything over 30 years old. Earlier this year at Avdiivka, RU took anti-submarine rocket launchers from the 1960s off old warships, welded them to a T-55 chassis, and instant mobile artillery. Designed to sink subs, the rockets were huge but inaccurate since they were meant to be fired in a pattern in the open ocean. Didn't matter since area effect what exactly what was needed at Avdiivka. Now, at Kursk, since AFU is using mostly speed/mobility tactics with wheeled armored vehicles, RU has used the MT-12 Rapira 100mm gun from the late 1960s; originally an anti-tank weapon, it is no threat to Abrams/Leopard2 , but against these Strykers and Senators, it is a crushing smoothbore sniper. At crossroads or just outside town in a low ditch with trees all around and covered in leaves, it is invisible until it fires, and 100mm is way enough to one-shot any APC or armored car. Just makes an old history nerd proud....."
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From what we've heard on the neutral military sites, AFU has 25K to 45K allocated to this operation (not all committed of course so they can rotate). The RU Kursk Army that was there for months (and was about to invade Ukraine via that same path), maybe 40K to 50K. So, right now both sides are about equally matched in that area, which is why neither can push the other very much, for very long: that "bulge" has remained about the same size for 3 days now. AFU is probing out to try to expand, but those "fingers" always eventually hit a wall. The rest of the border is not easy to cross, mines and dragon's teeth been there for years now, so militarily speaking, AFU can stay as long as they want to endure the FAB guided bombs. However, politically" , Putin is really angry now so it is unlikely RU will do the conservative thing and just surround them and degrade them from the air. They are on *RUSSIAN soil so he will probably send however many it takes to force them out asap..."
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