Comments by "Trevor Sutherland" (@trevorsutherland5263) on "Military Summary"
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"Four abandoned villages, 5km", when the first (of six) defense lines is still 10km away. Ukraine about to be taught the same exact lesson the Wehrmacht learned precisely 80 years ago: having a better tank means little when the enemy outnumbers you, has had time to prepare, and knows you're coming. When they reach the real defenses, all those flat plains of shimmering grain give very little cover, and behind every copse will be a 100mm sniper. While artillery falls like rain, drones will dive out of the sky like angry hornets; driving those that flee right into an anti-tank mine. At night, Kamov Ka-52s hover unmolested, taking their time on thermal sights to blast anything that moves. TOS-1A thermobaric shells will suck the air out of Ukrainian lungs, before the detonation obliterates them, ending their suffering. If somehow, incredibly after all that a Ukrainian vehicle emerges unscathed, the T-90M, now being built at a rate of 100 per month, will blow it to bits. Not with 100,000 men could Ukraine do this...
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The bridges are a problem, but hardly a critical one, imho. RU can't bring up heavy tanks but they don't need them, as AFU don't have that many anyway. This Kursk incursion force is extremely APC/IFV/Armored Car heavy; it was optimized for mobility, sacrificing armor for speed. Notice how few Bradley's we've seen over the past week, in favor of wheeled Strykers/Maxxpros/Mastiffs/Senators ?? That works in the opening days when you had surprise on your side, but the reason AFU hasn't gone much of anywhere in a week despite hundreds of attack attempts is they don't have the firepower advantage vs. units that are prepared and expecting them. No more border guards, AFU now facing Spetsnaz, Akhmat, Marines, VDV paratroopers and Storm-Z units all around them in Kursk salient. Tough, experienced guys who are the perfect counter to light, mobile forces."
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Its a ghastly thought, but just imagine how many AFU are buried in basements, dugouts, bunkers, "spider-holes"; under concrete, wood, dirt, or trash, in almost three years of intense combat. Just look at the map; the "red" long ago spread over and beyond the "lines" that represented static fortification defenses (bunkers and trenches). Look at the literally millions of shell craters, just imagine how many rockets airburst at those areas, how many cluster bomblets, mines etc. before RU passed them by. Battlefield archaeologists will still be finding AFU remains in 2259...
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Ukraine trading lives for land, Russia trading land for time. 2023 campaign season is about over. Winter is to rest, rotate, and train up new Legions for Spring 2024. Putin this week authorized 147,000 drafted between now an Spring, plus the 280,000 Medveyev said they recruited this year with bonuses, debt forgiveness, citizenship, etc. So thats 427,000 more ready by next year this time. AFU is sending 71 yr old men to NATO training, demanding countries send back male refugees, now conscripting women. Russia hasn't even had to raise its draft eligibility age max from its current age 27. Ukraine can win battles, but they will never win the war.
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