Comments by "bighand69" (@bighands69) on "Demographics Part 5: The Chinese Collapse" video.

@maciejzwolinski2381 The reason we do not have an economic model comparable is that we have not seen a country since the era of the Roman Empire that imported the majority of its raw materials and then export the majority of its productivity. We do not have a modern world example that would allow us to compute such a situation. During the era of the black death or even industrial revolution there is no comparable system to that of China. Take Japan for example it is an export driven country and imports most of its raw materials and has a falling population but has built out its industrial base over the last 40 years to be heavily automated and now requires less of a workforce than it did 25 years ago. It literally cannot be compared to China even though they have the same problem.
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So how do robots buy goods and consume within a society. And better still how does a non existent Chinese automated industrial base help that?
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Killing of the elderly will not help with the fact China does not have enough young people to maintain their current or previous industrial outputs. China relies upon its export market but that is already starting to shrink and as more workers become less productive because they get too old to do the physical labour that will create economic instability. A 65 year ol concrete worker is not going to be as productive as a 21 year old and that will be replicated throughout the Chinese system in every industry.
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It depends if those extra incorrect female count is in the childbearing years which it most certainly is. So any number you see right now for childbirth is a future projected number that is not real. China may already have a zero child birth rate at a population level and may have so for the last decade.
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@RichardBrubaker None of the countries you have listed have yet gone through this. There is nothing you have offered that can be used to describe.
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Once a population declines it starts to produce economic instability. On top of that China has a debt mountain that would make the Subprime US look good. China has several plates that are spinning at the moment and all it takes is for one plate to fall.
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China could implement a 10 child policy and have observers in every bed room but that is not going to help their population issues. China simply does not have enough women in its key childbearing demographics to turn that decline around. Maybe a 10 child policy may recover China population in 60 years time to a more positive structure but that would be a very different China that went through several crisis events.
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It will started WW3.
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China cannot avoid the economic instability from a lower population level. For it to remain stable it has to have a replacement rate but that only would have worked 30 years ago not today. For China to have tried to remain stable it would have needed 15 years ago to have a birth rate of about 3.
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That is only going to cause more problems. The women will have the pick of the best men and probably be better off but that will not translate to a more productive economy. Men are more productive in physical work than women are and that is also going to be impacted. You do not see that many female steel workers or miners.
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Who are you trying to kid with all of that. Robotics as in industrial automation can make products it cannot buy them and consume them. China simply has not automated its industry.
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