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bighand69
Zeihan on Geopolitics
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Comments by "bighand69" (@bighands69) on "Europe's Natural Gas Challenge" video.
You are being naive with those statements. The only thing keeping the European project together has been German industrial output. My the time Germany overcomes this issue (no guarantee) they will then be walking into another issue of European demographic collapse.
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Nuclear power cannot just be switched on. There is also the issue that most of the Uranium supply is Russian based.
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But has German industry in the last 15 years raced ahead because of natural gas?
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Nuclear is not the solution that people desire. It has its place but it is complex and also has supply side issues.
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Saudi Arabia has tens of billions of US equipment sitting in storage.
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It is more than just greens which are bad enough on their own. Germany has built its economic output on that cheap energy but at the same time has a demographic crisis on the horizon. So even if they could bring a solution to the table for energy they will then be walking straight into another massive issue.
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European countries are not suppose to use deficit spending. Many of them simply do not have the financial power to carry out deficit spending to plug the problem because they are already in deficit trying to support their welfare state programs. Gone are the days of having a large cake and eating what they want they are going to have to make sacrifice's such as not having energy or not having pharma.
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Germany industrial energy has been cheap. That cost basis is not going to go up several fold.
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I do not think they can fix it. Germany will have an energy cost increase at the same time it has a population decrease. That could end up with their products cost much more than it does. A VW golf at £25000 is a lot more attractive than one at £45000.
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Crude distillation based gases are very expensive and in real world will cost seven times as much as natural gas.
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Many of us knew that this was all coming down the line and we tried to tell people but tended to be smirked at. Even today I tried to tell people of the next phase and they just sneer at you even though I am trying to help them. None of this really means all out Mad Max collapse but it most certainly will be an economic and cultural decline.
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@martins3885 It does not matter what you think Germany will do. They now cannot manufacture at their current costs. And even if they engineer a solution by the time they have that figured their next issue will be European demographic decline.
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@Phoenixpk6 Nuclear power is not a solution.
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@LucasFernandez-fk8se There is no such thing as a European culture. German people are not the same as Italian just as French are not the same as Spanish. The EU has been a delusion that people just accept as normal.
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@suple87 There are no countries in Europe that can take cars of the road and then replace that will public transport. European city transport is good from a service point of view but that will not cut it in transnational crisis events like this. What has kept the EU afloat for the last few decades has been German industrial output but that is not going to be the case when the energy cost of production has a tenfold increase in cost. We are watching the decline of the EU happening in slow motion.
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People will go along with political climate change when they are living a comfortable life with all the mod cons and will be apathetic about many policies even when they are informed that they will damage the economy. But when all the mod cons are removed and life is harsh and very boring people will not be so apathetic. For several European countries it maybe too little to late.
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It will not just be the Germans that will suffer the whole of Europe and much further out.
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Germany has two major problems going off at the same time it has lost its low energy productivity and has an aging workforce. On top of that Germany has to now quadruple its defence budget just to look a little bit scary to the Russians encase they decide to invade the rest of Europe. Germany does have about €300 billion in reserve to try and deal with these issues. Those in Germany in the know understood all of this when the invasion happened hence why they all freaked out.
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Germany is a classical case of culture delusional thinking.
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Europe as in Germany and several other countries will always have it on their mind that Russia could invade them. Handing over european wealth to build up the Russian military will not sit easy.
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@kaulassala Earthquakes are caused by tectonic plates not pockets in shale formations. Modern equipment is so sensitive that it can detect force based impression in far off regions. They are pretending it is earthquakes when it is nothing of the sort.
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@curioussand1339 What the same clever people that created policies in Europe that is creating a population crash. The idea of leaving things to clever people is one of the reasons Europeans have such apathetic political views. They are so bad that they have allowed socialists to create economic policies that they openly boast will destroy economic growth.
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China and India are not buying that much and they cannot make up for the European consumer demand. Russia is trying to put on a brave face of it.
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Those solutions I am afraid are pure nonsense. They are something a politician would come up with hence why they have started to use the term flatten the curve. Wonder where we heard that before.
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That coal energy that germany would have will be several times higher in cost than Gas for the next decade and when they do get their coal energy prices down to near gas levels they will be hitting the demographic wall.
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It would be better for the Union to actually morph into something else such as a trade zone with light levels of regulations among the member states. Collapse is never good.
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That is pure commie fantasy economics. Not saying she is a commie though just that it appears similar.
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Argentina is not a good example because Argentina has plenty of energy in reserve but a very poor market economy.
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US is abundant in Energy and will have some form of crisis down the line but that is always the case. The US will look strong compared to Europe.
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@worfoz You are talking nonsense. Western politicians decided that the world was global and that they would represent global interests. Guess what people are finding that it is not a truly global world.
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What like the trillions Europe has spent on renewables. Well guess what there are new energy prices in European no matter what they attempt to do. Germany industry is on the edge and will not be the same after this.
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@taylorandclarke1910 It depends on what the 170 billion is spent on.
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I am afraid that is nonsense at best.
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Do you think Germany can supply both their consumer base and industrial base in the middle of winter at the same price they have for the last 20 years? The main issue is cost and competitiveness of industry. Will German products be able to compete with Asian and American products on price. Japanese industry has always produced at a higher energy cost than Germany.
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