Comments by "bighand69" (@bighands69) on "China Has 10 Years Left, Says Geopolitical Analyst Peter Zaihan" video.

  1. It does not matter how many people are skeptical the facts are the facts. China has run out of children and young people. Its cost of production has increased ten fold.
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  2. When you realize what is at stake it would stress you.
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  3. He has written four books on the topic full of data and has given hundreds of presentations full of data.
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  4. How do you think China is going to look in 10 years time when they do not have enough young workers?
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  5. It is all based on facts not opinions. Peter the guy in the video has always state knowing something will happen is not the same knowing exactly when it will happen.
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  6. He believes facts.
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  7. Yes it most certainly is.
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  8. China does not have 6000 years of continuous culture. China is a series of different periods and right now the China you see is one of the longest periods of unity but it will not hold.
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  9. There is no way of replacing young people in an economy or society. Babies have to be born it is that simple. China has not been having children and everybody knows this is coming down the line. If China started to have lots of babies right now it will not stop that decline. It takes 60 years to build a demographic structure which is about 3 to 4 cultural generations. Places like Japan can use automation to start rebuilding their culture because their population is about 120 million but that will not work for a population that is 10 times larger s there is no other market place that can step in and help.
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  10. US is still going strong.
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  11. It is the reason why aerospace and embedded systems industries are in Mexico and not China.
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  12. That is called nonsense.
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  13. Number one rule with China is double the official states they are also nonsense.
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  14. His time frames maybe conservative.
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  15. Nope the US can make everything it needs.
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  16. How do you think China will persevere with no children?
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  17. So you think automation will be buying products?
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  18. The US did that to try and keep the Chinese and Russians separated during the cold war but it carried on after the cold war. And now it is going back into reverse.
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  19. Russia made the exact same claims but the info that the US had before the invasion of Ukraine was very accurate.
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  20. That decline population creates economic retraction which further impacts population stabilities and that then feeds into more economic contraction. The outcome will be exponential in that right up to the end it will appear as same changes but then will have a massive cliff effect.
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  21. So how does automation consume products?
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  22. They get taken away in front of the whole congress of communists to send out messages. Key business, industry and civil service go missing routinely with no body knowing where they went.
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  23. America is having babies every year, still produces oil, gas, food and is investing more into its military, infrastructure and so on. You can take your fantasy about America in trouble and forget about it.
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  24.  @hplovecraft1445  Everybody knows that China is facing a demographic issue. There is only one outcome for them.
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  25. There is just no getting around a population collapse and its economic impact.
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  26.  @donderstorm1845  China has more people in its retirement work bands than it does coming into full consumer maturity. This is not made up and is exactly what China population is at the moment. China is not the only place that is in this state of population. There are several European countries like that as well. South Korea has brutal population issues but they are going to happen in about 20 years time. China's issues are in the next 10 years as are Germany and Italy.
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  27.  @donderstorm1845  Right now SK has enough young workers just behind the retiring class of workers to keep consumption markets and their manufacturing sustainable and their export markets have space in the short term as in next 10 years to make up the differences. The issue the face is not this decade but in the periods after 2030 and into the 2040s.
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  28.  @donderstorm1845  South Korea has a problem but not in the same time frame as China. One cannot be used to qualify the other.
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  29. Chang is talking about economics but even he knows that the writing is on the wall trying to accurately predict when it will occur is the challenge. The difference with demographics is that its outcome will be known in a very precise time frame. China uses about 20 times as much QE as the US uses with half the economic depth that the US has.
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  30.  @lucasgrey9794  China has 50% more 60 years olds than it does 20 year olds. If you think that is a non-issue good luck to you.
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  31.  @Jm-dx9tl  Automation does not consume products so how do you think that automation is going to do that since you seem to think it is crazy how that works.
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  32.  @donderstorm1845  China is going to have less workers in 2032. There is just no argument you can put forward to state otherwise. Everybody knows that the one child policy has created a lower future working force. Now you mentioned robotics that will not help with the economy because China needs to develop a consumer market of its own but it cannot do that if there are less workers. China has 50% more people nearing 60 years of age than it does 30 years of age. That's what a one child policy does to a population.
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  33.  @tinsoldier1983  Cheap good can be made anywhere in the world so that is the answer you have to work with.
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  34.  @lucasgrey9794  So you are admitting that there are more people in China who are in their sixties?
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  35.  @donderstorm1845  That lowering birth rate you are talking of tends to happen slowly over a period of time. With China it went from 2.5 to 1.6 in under a decade. The US had a decline but it was smaller and over a longer period but it then had a resurgence and had that up and down growth. China does not have a consumer market if that is what you are getting at.
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  36.  @lucasgrey9794  Your fantasy robust Asians (you watch too many movies) are not going to bring balance to their economy. There are places in the world where people do have long healthy lives but those people do not bring economic activity. They are not consumers nor are they innovative nor are they energetic. You can keep fantasizing.
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  37. How would nature get the Chinese to have more children and adults for working?
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  38. That is pure fantasy and chess was not invented in China.
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  39. Medicine has not figured out how to have women remain fertile into their thirties never mind forties.
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  40. Geography and then culture.
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  41. It says nothing of the sort.
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  42. He says there is good and bad with Trump and the other leaders as well. He says that Trump did one thing and that was to realize that the current set up cannot continue.
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  43. Yes the US has everything it needs to function as a stand alone economy and will do so.
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  44. Some of the conclusions are based on very simple information such as child birth and the structural age of a society.
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