Youtube comments of (@anderspuck).

  1. After I recorded this video, Putin said that the perpetrators of the attack were Islamic fundamentalists, but that they were somehow sponsored by the United States. It doesn't change my point in the video, but it does show the scope of competing narratives that they are floating. Be aware of attempts at impersonation scams in the comments section. If somebody with my profile picture asks you to contact them on a private service like Telegram or WhatsApp, please don't. It's not actually me.
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  2. Please be aware of attempts at impersonation scams in the comments section. There have been cases where people take my thumbnail picture and pretend to be me. Typically they will ask you to contact them on another platform like Telegram or WhatsApp. Don’t do that. It’s not actually me. If you want to get in contact with me outside of YouTube, then Mastodon is my preferred social media platform (@anderspuck@krigskunst.social).
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  3. Please be aware of attempts at impersonation scams in the comments section. I will never ask you to contact me on Telegram, Instagram or other platforms. It you want to support the channel, consider signing up for my newsletter on https://www.logicofwar.com.
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  4. It looks like YouTube has a problem where a lot of comments disappear for no particular reason. It is a recurring problem but it seems particularly bad right now. Unfortunately there is nothing I can do about it. It is something that YouTube does, and the disappearing comments also don’t show up on the admin pages so I cannot retrieve them. I have not been able to identify any particular political views that they are filtering, and it seems more or less random.
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  5. There are a lot of problems with impersonation scams right now, where people take my thumbnail picture and pretend to be me in the comments section. Typically they will ask you to contact them on another platform like Telegram or WhatsApp. Please don’t do that. It’s not actually me. If you want to get in contact with me outside of YouTube, then Mastodon is my preferred social media platform (@anderspuck@krigskunst.social). I'm also somewhat active on LinkedIn. You can also find my email address on my website, but please notice that I get a lot of email, and it's hard to keep up.
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  6. Follow me on Bluesky: @anderspuck.bsky.social Follow me on Mastodon: @anderspuck@krigskunst.social
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  7. You can find my newsletter and support the channel on https://www.logicofwar.com. Please be aware of attempts at impersonation scams in the comments. I will never ask you to contact me on a private network like WhatsApp or Telegram.
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  8. If you want to support the channel, please consider subscribing to my newsletter on https://www.logicofwar.com. And remember to be careful about attempts at impersonation scams in the comments section where someone uses my profile picture from a different account. I will never ask you to contact me on private platforms like Telegram or WhatsApp.
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  9. If you want to support the channel, please consider subscribing to my newsletter on https://www.logicofwar.com.
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  10. Yes, I would not be surprised to learn that there is a bunch of parameters that they haven't published, but I found it a bit too speculative to include in the video.
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  11. Pretty clever use of media reports even if it exposed other parts of the city.
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  12. I agree.
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  13. If you want to support the channel, please consider subscribing to my newsletter on https://www.logicofwar.com. And remember to be careful about attempts at impersonation scams in the comments section where someone uses my profile picture from a different account. I will never ask you to contact me on private platforms like Telegram or WhatsApp.
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  14. It’s super frustrating that comments disappear for no apparent reason. YouTube really need to get it sorted out.
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  15. Thanks. I'm glad you like it. I'm afraid I don't know the answers to your questions. But it's a good point that the Ukrainians could have inside knowledge about the systems on Moskva, and that the missile could be optimized to beat them.
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  16. If you want to support the channel, you can subscribe to my newsletter on https://www.logicofwar.com.
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  17. If you want to support the channel, consider signing up for my newsletter at https://www.logicofwar.com. And as always be careful with attempts at impersonation scams in the comments section. I will never ask you to contact me privately on Telegram, WhatsApp or any other platform like that.
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  18. The problem with Europe standing up for its own security is that Europe doesn't have a union government. The issue is not resources but leadership. It is like imagining not having the federal government in the USA and instead outsourcing it to the state governments to agree on a defense policy.
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  19. That’s a good point.
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  20. I agree, but unfortunately I am not convinced that all the Western leaders understand the urgency.
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  21. Thanks. I will try to be more consistent going forward. :-)
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  22. If you want to find me on social media, I recommend Mastodon. Find me as @anderspuck@krigskunst.social. I do have accounts on other networks like LinkedIn and Facebook, but I am not nearly as active as on Mastodon.
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  23. Vlad Vexler has made a reaction video where he expands on my arguments. I agree with everything Vlad says, and I highly recommend you watch his video too. https://youtu.be/ALLQLsfucvw
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  24. Thanks, Vlad.
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  25. Thanks. Glad you like it.
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  26. I think you are right about that.
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  27. Yeah, that was a bit of a cliffhanger. Maybe I will make a video about Crimea. But the short story is that the terrain is really difficult, and it would turn many of the current dynamics upside down. Suddenly Ukraine would get the long supply lines, and the Russians could play the defensive game. And also Russia would be relieved of all the artificial restrictions from the "special military operation" because they consider it Russian territory.
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  28. Thanks. I am glad to hear that.
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  29. Maybe. But in that case their capacity is very low, because it doesn't seem to hit the Russian society at scale.
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  30. Thank you. I am glad you find the videos useful. :-) Yes, I agree, YouTube is a good platform for staying up to date. There are many good channels that follow the war and the situation in Russia.
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  31.  @Princip666 Not sure what you mean? Sometimes comments are deleted by YouTube automatically.
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  32.  @AMeanDude  Yes, the mobilization order is still technically in place, so they don't have to announce mobilization. But if they were really mobilizing Russian men against their will at a scale of tens of thousands per month, it would not be possible to keep secret.
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  33. Yes, will definitely be worth following if it happens. :-)
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  34. True, but the price for access is so enormous that it's the same in practice.
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  35. Yes, it really was not impressive operational security.
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  36. Frankly it’s mostly because the way I personally consume YouTube videos I rarely have the time to watch 45 minutes at a time, so it’s easier with shorter videos. And then there is a bit of algorithm speculation too, because people just watching a few minutes would disproportionately skew watch time.
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  37.  @pierresaelen3097  I think to some extend Prigozhin felt he had to maintain that attitude to remain relevant and "too big to fall". But everyone getting on the same airplane still seems careless.
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  38. Thank you. I’ll enjoy it. 😊
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  39. I agree, that does indeed look very much like something that qualifies as a genocide.
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  40.  @enricogattone432  Thanks. “Eliminated” is also the word the Ukrainians use officially. It makes sense that it would be killed and seriously wounded.
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  41.  @markbrisec3972  How would the U.S. Navy solve this problem? Aside from leveraging aircraft like I mention. (You have to also keep the task in mind. A U.S. destroyer would prefer to be cruising around at +20 knots which would solve a lot of the problem, but it would not be possible while guarding the Kerch Bridge.)
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  42. My expertise is Russia and not the Middle East.
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  43. Thanks. Nice summary.
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  44. Yeah, that was also my argument in my first video about gas. But the Russians talk about it a lot, and clearly they are betting on the crisis in Europe as some sort of solution for them.
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  45. Good idea. I will think about that.
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  46. Thank you. Very useful overview.
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  47. Good point. In general I also think the Ukrainian numbers are pretty good. They have a big interest in maintaining credibility.
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  48. I also suspect that it is a recommendation that is made to fit just your profile. YouTube must somehow think that you are interested in Tim Pool.
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  49. Thanks, I appreciate it. I will try to post videos, but this crisis really takes a toll on my time. I do make quite a few media appearances on the Danish networks regarding the war, but obviously that's not really helpful for anyone following from abroad.
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  50. Yes, great news!
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  51.  @traumflug You are on to someting. 😊
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  52. Thanks. Do you have a source?
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  53.  @Hydrazine1000  These drones are too silent to be noticed by sonar. The waves also generate background sounds which will hide small surface boats.
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  54. Maybe the windmill producers?
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  55.  @Princip666 Ok, I understand. I thought it could be a response to my comment above. Glad you are not experiencing problems with disappearing comments on my channel. It’s an extremely annoying problem.
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  56. I think it was mostly about timing. Milley expressed the White House line pretty well, but a few days too late. At that point, Zelensky had already responded to the signals from the Biden administration, and Milley's statements made it look like Ukraine hadn't done enough.
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  57.  @buddy1155 I guess it depends on whether Russia can find a buyer for all the extra crude oil. I think the only possible buyer is India, and they have started to scale back. So it could lead to an overall lower availability of fuel.
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  58. I'm looking forward to that coming out too. I think it was a really good conversation.
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  59. Fragmentation is definitely a thing on the Russian side. It doesn’t explain the rapid consumption of missiles or the lack of political preparation, though.
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  60. Good point. The importance of artillery has definitely been demonstrated.
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  61. But Moldova is not a NATO member.
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  62. Good to know. I was unsure whether people would appreciate this excerpt or get annoyed that I posted the same content.
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  63. Who do you think I should interview from Ukraine? The reason I thought Maxim was interesting, is there is an unsolved puzzle in how to actually reach the Russians. We get to that in the last part of the interview where we talk about what it takes for Russian opposition politicians and media in exile to be relevant for ordinary Russians, if they actually want an audience. Telling Russians they are terrible will not get you an audience.
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  64. That’s true.
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  65. I think the Russians are definitely worried something will happen during the parade. This shows Ukraine has the capability to pull such a thing off.
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  66. Thanks for this video. Yes, it has indeed been a bad month for Russian maritime activities.
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  67. True.
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  68. Not sure what you think needs to be corrected.
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  69.  @andrewworth4810  It is a disputed term but I use it in lack of a better word. If you are interested, I made a video about what hybrid warfare is. https://youtu.be/mVj-AbXIUZc
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  70. FAUKUS doesn't sound like the way to go either.
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  71. According to the RF Foundations for Naval Policy the ambition is very much to have a blue water navy – in fact the second strongest in the world. It's a pretty unrealistic goal, though.
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  72. I disagree with Peter on that.
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  73. A small hole in the pipeline on the Saint Petersburg end, and everyone would have assumed it was an accident or another Russian excuse for not delivering gas. That’s what I mean by “below the detection threshold“.
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  74. Selv tak. Jeg synes det var en rigtig god diskussion. 😊
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  75.  @SonsOfLorgar  Ah, I see. 😊 But there has also been a problem with disappearing comments where it has been difficult to figure out a reason. Vlad has also been talking about that on his channel.
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  76.  @UnfollowYourDreams  Yes. That would not be a legitimate military target. At least I don't have enough knowledge about it to see how it would be.
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  77. I think you are right about that. It will be part of an idea of putting pressure on the West to stop the support for Ukraine. I do think, however, that the Russians are overestimating their capability to create trouble, and I don't think it will work for them.
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  78. Thanks. And oh, yes. I am certain there are some trolls here. 😊
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  79. I guess those two questions are closely related. I think one should generally be careful not to underestimate Russia's ability to muddle through and make things work against all odds. But I must say that I think their manning policy is unsustainable, and that Russia will be unable to fight this way beyond the next six months. I really find the coming few months of the war unpredictable so it’s hard to speculate about specific next actions. But cutting the water supply to Crimea is a logical goal.
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  80. I have discovered that many people basically use YouTube as a podcast player and really enjoy the long format. Before I used to chop interviews into smaller pieces to keep it digestible.
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  81. I am not sure those advisors are necessarily being listened to.
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  82. Good to hear. I also think Russia's air strikes on Ukraine's power infrastructure reduce the sentiment that Ukraine should negotiate.
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  83.  @totensiebush  Strange. But lately YouTube has started warning me about potential copyright violations so I can take action when people rip off my videos.
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  84. I generally am suspicious about these economic explanations of wars. It's akin to the people who claim the Iraq war was about oil – it really wasn't. I think these natural resources will play a bigger role in how the war can end than why it started, because Russia will be reluctant to give up these things once they have captured them. But so far this war has been a devastation for Russia's economy.
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  85. No. “The phrase “people is” can be used as a singular noun phrase when it refers to everyone within a specific nation, civilization, ethnic group, or tribe as a single unit.” :-) https://www.grammar.com/people_is%E2%80%9D_vs_%E2%80%9Cpeople_are%E2%80%9D
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  86. They can move ships up to corvette size through the internal waterways. Most of the fleet is still intact, but they are basically hiding behind Crimea due to Ukraine's anti-ship missiles.
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  87. I would say that military forces are mostly meant to prevent wars. It would be nice if there were other ways, but until now I think deterrence is a necessary part of preventing aggression. I did make a video about deterrence as a concept, if you are interested. https://youtu.be/qbzk-qub5WQ
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  88. Did you watch the video?
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  89. Thanks. Great to hear. It works for me too.
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  90. Yes, I agree that Russia can reduce their political goals to something achievable, and neutrality could be a kind of compromise. But it's very far from the ambitions that Putin has expressed and his view on the unique bond between Russia and Ukraine. Demilitarization is a ridiculous idea and Russia won't achieve that – especially after demonstrating so clearly why Ukraine needs a strong military. And the demanded security guarantees from NATO are totally off the table by now. Regarding the video on the invasion strategy, that is a good idea, but there are still many unknowns. So I'll probably save it for later. 😊
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  91. In general I'd say the defender would benefit more from a very compact frontline with a single axis of attack. Ukraine also benefits from having a shorter distance to move between these two sections on the frontline.
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  92. Thanks for the suggestion. I'll consider it.
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  93.  @LeoTheLion66  Must be YouTube. I didn’t delete anything, and I don’t know what you wrote.
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  94. Yes, it will have a huge impact on Russian society going forward.
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  95. Yeah, maybe could have been good. But I explain it in depth in my Nord Stream video, and I also have a whole video about it here: https://youtu.be/mVj-AbXIUZc
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  96. Will do!
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  97. I think it's pretty clear that the AUKUS deal caused division between otherwise good allies, and that is exactly the opposite of what we need when facing China. It was bad diplomacy, and I think especially the US played it wrong. But well, since then Russia has done a great job of uniting the West, so I guess the long-term effects will be negligible.
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  98. Thanks. Glad you find it valuable.
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  99.  @LeoTheLion66  I think it is influencing warfare much the same way as it is influencing journalism and politics in general. There is a tabloidization and algorithmification of the news coverage that is inherently dangerous for society and democracy. The special thing about warfare is that we have government actors involved in trying to manipulate and spin the system to win the narrative, so there are a lot of resources available. That, obviously, does not mean that every channel that covers the war is doing it in a bad way. I think there are many YouTube channels that are doing a really good job of trying to explain the war without pushing a particular agenda. But the general trend towards tabloidization and algorithmification is evident.
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  100.  @peterflohr7827  I don't think I assume some big plan. I rather guess that's the assumption of those who believe in the long war plan.
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  101. I think so too.
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  102. Yeah, that too. :-)
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  103. Glad you like it. I think the grammar is correct, though. I am referring to "a people" here – plural would be peoples. :-)
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  104. Yeah, sorry. I'm not trying to be pro-Ukrainian, but I think they are objectively in a better position than Russia.
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  105. Ja, det er svært at nå det hele. Må nok lave en video om Ukraine næste gang. 😊
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  106. Det ved vi vel sådan set heller ikke, så det kan godt være. Vil dog mene at det mest er på deres store ubåde at de har dem.
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  107.  @Oko-wv5ec  Thanks. I get it that Ukrainians don't care for a Russian audience. It's not a relevant question for Ukraine now, but I do think it is relevant for the Baltic states for example, how to deal with these voices that want to communicate to Russia.
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  108. That’s brave. This is a different kind of video than normal.
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  109.  @TheRealBillBob  They make new accounts all the time.
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  110.  @ggez-yc1ui  I have not deleted anything.
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  111. Good observation. Yes, I did make the recording before that announcement by Lavrov. But on the other hand he seems to be making announcements in all directions in rapid order these days.
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  112. Of course they won't all sit in the first trench. But I think the number gives a general idea that Russia does have a problem with the number of soldiers.
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  113. Did you see the video? My point is about the opposite of what you write, namely that Putin wanted to close the traffic, but was unable to do so.
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  114. Good update as always. You have recently started to pronounce the names of Ukrainian towns and people in a more English fashion, which I personally think is a bit of a pity. You used to be my source for knowing how these names are really pronounced, but now I am afraid that I am learning it wrong. 😅
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  115.  @plasticjock1090  I wouldn't say that nukes are hybrid. It's more about combining military and non-military means to achieve military results. And to do it below the threshold of actual war. Here is an example from before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, where I look at Belarus' use of refugees as a weapon against Poland and Lithuania. https://youtu.be/_6wQzxTu01I
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  116. No I didn’t. YouTube must have done it.
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  117. Glad you found it useful.
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  118. It will be hard, but that is Putin's problem too. He needs them to care about the war.
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  119. It is not unreasonable to fear that Putin can attack NATO directly if he is fighting what he perceives as western hybrid warfare to topple his regime.
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  120. Whatever point you are trying to make, there is no reason for being so aggressive about it.
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  121. It's a combination of factors, but generally these numbers are misleading when they are dependent on exchange rates to USD. If you correct for purchasing power, Russia's GDP is approximately the same as Germany's. And since they spend about 5 percent of GDP on defense, that is a really large number.
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  122. Yeah, I guess so. In fairness the video is four months old and it has needed an update for some time.
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  123.  @Asptuber  Good suggestion. I have added a link to the playlist in the description. I usually watch YouTube on my phone, and there it is much harder to deal with videos you have watched halfway. And because YouTube knows you already watched some of it, it is usually not suggested again, so you have to search to find it again.
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  124. Good argument. There is also the whole question of nuclear weapons alone not being enough for deterrence because you leave too much room for sub-nuclear action.
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  125. I think the US government mostly just woke up to discover that they were behind in the Arctic, and then Trump came up with a quick idea.
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  126. Interesting angle. I guess that is the somewhat familiar role of Russian disinformation to undermine society. Not sure Russia would sacrifice their future energy exports for that purpose, though. I think there has to be an expectation of a bigger benefit behind it.
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  127. Thanks. I hadn't heard about that incident. 👍
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  128. Thanks. I'm glad you find it useful.
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  129.  @mikeunger4165  I think the MQ-8b has been retired. I'm not sure if the U.S. Navy has another helicopter style UAV in service, but definitely something like that can be a part of the solution. It's worth noting, though, that the USVs are developing quickly too. Ukraine already has prototypes that are submerged or equipped with missiles. I think there is no doubt that an area like the Baltic Sea can be a huge challenge with the multitude of threats that now exists.
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  130. Thanks for the reference in your video.
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  131. I actually didn't say that.
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  132. Good video. And thanks for the reference. It seems the Romanian government has now had to admit that at least parts of a drone landed on their territory, but it took them two days to get to that conclusion.
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  133.  @marijo1951  I didn't remove it, so that must have triggered something in YouTube.
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  134.  @MarcosElMalo2  There is also a big difference between what content there is in a video. My livestream was mostly a Q&A session, and that's very different from a Perun video.
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  135. Not sure I have a clear answer, but I will say that there is a kind of division of labor between EU, NATO, and the individual countries. Much of the help to Ukraine comes from the individual countries, whereas the role of EU more is to make sanctions and to deal with the financial consequences of the war. But in the end it is still the same countries, just different forums.
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  136. Agree. It’s a good way to frame the challenge.
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  137. That's just a bunch of whataboutery. I think you should watch the video to find out if you think the title is accurate.
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  138. I'm not sure I understand your complaint. I specifically say that it is not Europe's choice?
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  139. Yeah, for some reason that is seen as a political statement in Russia.
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  140. Thanks. Glad you find it useful.
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  141. Interesting thought experiment. Could be...
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  142. Thanks. Glad you liked the interview. I hope you will enjoy the book as much as I did.
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  143. ISR = Intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance. Basically knowing where the enemy is.
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  144. Yeah, but I mean, they are still fighting. It's not like nothing is working.
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  145.  @highdefinist9697  I think he considered himself too valuable for the Russian state to be liquidated. To be fair, many Western analysts said the same thing, that for the time being the consequences for Russia’s foreign policy in Africa would be too big.
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  146. Tak, det er nu rettet. :-)
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  147. Of course. If they had not taken losses, they would not have retreated.
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  148. If Russia had significant reserves, I am pretty sure they would have used them to achieve something in the winter offensive.
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  149.  @practical-skills-school  That would make sense, but I am not sure that is what we are seeing. Many people assume the reason Surovikin was demoted was because Putin wanted a more offensive approach, and Gerasimov promised to deliver. In my view it doesn't make sense to make a half offensive and for example let your forces bleed like at Vukhledar or Avdiivka if you have the reserves they need to win.
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  150. Thanks. Corrected. :-)
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  151. You mean PPP?
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  152. Other people in the comments are educating me that it is named by British immigrants. Apparently there are several possible explanations in play.
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  153. Can you provide a source for that?
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  154. Haven't seen that but I think it will be hard for them to produce that many trucks quickly.
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  155. Thanks.
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  156. I think Ukraine would target the bridge if they could. But it is not easily done, and an attack would have to be big in order to damage the bridge sufficiently.
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  157. Thanks. Glad you liked it.
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  158. This video does not really focus on current news, it's a more long-term perspective.
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  159. Thanks. I'm glad you like it. 😊
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  160. Tak for forslaget. Det er meget værdsat. Jeg vil prøve at gøre det lettere at læse på en lille skærm. Mine grafikken er som regel ret statiske, så måske det bliver kedeligt hvis de er i fuld skærm i længere tid. Det er i hvert fald tanken bag at jeg ikke har brugt fuld skærm så meget indtil nu. :-) Men jeg skal nok prøve at se om jeg kan finde løsninger så det bliver lettere at læse uden at blive ensformigt.
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  161. Thanks. 😊
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  162. Ok, I might be mistaken on that. Thanks. It doesn't change the point about what it does or the legality, though.
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  163. They have one already, the CSTO. There is a handful of members alongside Russia.
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  164. I think Oliver Alexander has a lot of credibility. https://oalexanderdk.substack.com/p/blowing-holes-in-seymour-hershs-pipe
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  165. Maybe I could do that. The short version is I think he vastly underestimates Ukraine's role and agency, so he ends up with a weird analysis of Ukraine that doesn't consider the country itself.
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  166.  @olafkunert3714  Partly, but it’s also a question of geography. Europe will need to spend more that Russia to deter limited military aggression in Eastern Europe, where Russia has the benefit of proximity.
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  167.  @olafkunert3714  It’s a complicated discussion but I would say that Europe would not have any way to throw Russia out of an Eastern European country – say Latvia or Lithuania – on its own, and Europe also doesn’t have a credible deterrence by punishment capability. So it’s really not enough to have enough to sort of hold your ground. Europe needs substantially more to handle Russia, and currently it only works because US pays so much.
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  168. Absolutely. The payload discussion is just as important as the planes themselves.
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  169. I don’t think Russia will agree to stop the war under those conditions.
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  170. It is one pipe of NS2 and not NS1. Very convenient if you want to create arguments and disagreement between US and Germany.
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  171. Must say I didn’t think Zolote was such an important place to name. Bakhmut would have been more relevant to mention by name in my opinion, but that didn’t make the cut either.
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  172. I made a couple of Nord Stream related videos. They are not brand new, but my view hasn't changed much. https://youtu.be/hk-0qJXyido https://youtu.be/EeP_ZZbBIl4
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  173. Thanks, Vlad. :-)
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  174. EW is a scarce resource and guns only work up to a certain altitude. The drones in question here are the ones above the level of hobby drones but not quite big enough to be brought down with traditional air defense systems.
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  175. Destroying a pipeline below the detection threshold means that people think it was an accident.
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  176. Selv tak. Er glad for at du finder videoerne værdifulde.
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  177. Unfortunately not.
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  178. Thanks. Glad to hear that.
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  179. We'll see how successful they'll be with this new approach, but I think it's quite clear this was not how they expected things to be.
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  180. Thanks. Yes, the gas question is definitely important. Still thinking about the right way to cover it.
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  181. It’s difficult but not impossible. If we look at all the suspected war crimes in Ukraine, there should be hundreds of potential cases. It may take a long time, but I think the odds are eventually we will see cases against Russians.
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  182. In general I am skeptical about these speculations about states going to war for economic enrichment. The same argument has come up for why the West engaged in the Iraq war. I am pretty sure that other factors led Russia to start the war. I will say though, that I do think it is going to play a role for ending the war, because at that point it will be much more about squeezing every last drop out of it.
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  183. Thanks. Corrected. :-)
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  184. I very much agree with Perun on this.
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  185. I am sure they see the problem, but not sure what they are going to do about it.
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  186. True. It’s more complicated than I put it in the video. But in general it is not legal to burn down entire cities even if there are soldiers in the city.
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  187. Yeah, the purpose of this video was mostly to give information about the situation, because I think it is missing from much of the media. I will have more analytical videos coming out, and perhaps that will cover some of what you are asking. I will say though that regarding the Russian offensive in Donbas I think I almost give away my conclusion in this video.
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  188. Hej Lars. Som regel kommer de danske undertekster inden for et døgns tid efter udgivelsen. Det har ikke været tilfældet på det seneste par videoer, men det har skyldtes ferie hos ham som laver dem. Mh. Anders
    5
  189. These are examples of Putin misunderstanding the situation but not really reacting irrationally to the things he believed to be true. I think it is wrong to extrapolate and assume that he is generally irrational.
    5
  190. Agree. This analysis is more than six months old and my conclusion is different today.
    5
  191. It is just not true. These missiles are not more complicated to operate than all kinds of other equipment. And even if there is some technical staff in Ukraine, it’s not a big deal.
    5
  192. Or we’ll be at a place where both sides can do offensive maneuvers again.
    5
  193. Some countries (and U.S. politicians) are concerned that priority 2 will compromise priority 1. That is to a large extent the reason why things are not moving faster.
    5
  194. Well, it's also happening in the South. It's a mistake to assume the Kherson offensive is a feint. But admitted, I was surprised that Ukraine had enough strength for a second counteroffensive as well.
    5
  195. Tak skal du have. Det er jeg glad for at du synes.
    5
  196. Det tror jeg ikke vi vil gøre. Vi vil hjælpe Ukraine med at slå dem tilbage på samme måde som med Rusland, men ikke engagere os direkte. Også fordi det ikke vil ændre afgørende på krigens vilkår. Så stærke er Belarus ikke.
    5
  197. Norway has so much gas they are exporting it. It's Central Europe that has a problem.
    5
  198. Thank you. Glad you find it useful. 😊
    4
  199. Not really. There are so many internally displaced persons that it's impossible to vote. And also, we pretty much already have a decent idea about the support for the two sides before the invasion – broad support for Ukraine. A country can't just come and occupy a part of a different country, conduct ethnic cleansing and then call for a referendum.
    4
  200. Thank you.
    4
  201. I think you overestimate western navies here. USVs are a huge problem.
    4
  202. It seems to me they are fueling the speculation by sending messages in all directions. So instead of hoping for secrecy, they are opting for confusion.
    4
  203. We do know from Russia that there is not intensive mobilization going on right now. There is a lot of nervousness about it, though. The prisoners are a special story, because many of them (those who survived) just completed their term and returned to Russia.
    4
  204. Thanks. Nice overview.
    4
  205. Thanks
    4
  206. You can find me as @anderspuck@krigskunst.social.
    4
  207. No, I think it will take longer time before Ukraine has enough of these fighters for it to make a significant difference.
    4
  208. Thank you, I'll do my best. :-)
    4
  209. I put some links in the video description. Katz’s videos have subtitles.
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  210. Спасибо. Очень полезны ваши сводки с фронта.
    4
  211. True. Although they might make the soldiers fight without equipment if need be.
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  212. It can, but it can also be cooperation. Depends on whether it is naval diplomacy against a friend or a foe.
    4
  213. Thanks for the nice words and your support.
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  214. Yeah, but the question, how is the invasion going, is too easy to answer in one word. 😊
    4
  215. Thank you. I am glad to hear that.
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  216. I am Danish.
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  217. It’s seven minutes long, and academia is what I do. 🤷‍♂️
    4
  218. Have you seen the video?
    4
  219. Would be interesting with the troll test. Regarding your first point, I will note that the European governments may know the real evidence but just keep quiet about it. So if they know Russia did it, then there is not much of a wedge.
    4
  220. For at få opmærksomheden. Det ville ikke have give nævneværdig effekt at sprænge den ved Sankt Petersborg.
    4
  221. Tak. 😊
    4
  222. I think he will have to move some forces already, but it is very important for him to maintain focus on the eastern front. Donetsk may well be more important than Kursk in Putin's mind.
    4
  223. The Harpoon missiles are definitely important here. Several countries sent them, but Denmark is one of them.
    4
  224. It just shows how important maritime transportation is for our societies. It's impossible to transport that much cargo on trucks and trains.
    4
  225.  @sayuas4293  True, and some efforts are being put into doing that. But it’s a massive logistical task.
    4
  226. Yeah, maybe. But you can't cover it all, and these violations of airspace or territorial waters occur regularly.
    4
  227. Thanks for the feedback. I'll be less worried about making long videos. :-)
    4
  228. Yes, I speak Russian.
    4
  229. USA has benefited greatly by the global system of alliances that has existed since WW2.
    4
  230. Glad you liked it!
    4
  231.  @skyscrapersrussia  What do you mean, I don’t understand his words?
    4
  232. Thanks for the feedback. You are right, it is too loud. Every video I turn it down a few decibels, but I should probably turn it down some more.
    4
  233. Interesting suggestion. I wouldn't call myself an expert on the Indian navy, but maybe that is something I should look into. 🤔 I just listened to this podcast on the Indian navy, which I did enjoy. https://cimsec.org/sea-control-276-indias-strategy-for-the-indian-ocean-region-with-dr-rohan-mukherjee/
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  234. I'm not sure that is necessary. He is not asking his government to suffer – they just have to be loyal.
    4
  235. I think there is an element of deterrence by denial in what I described, but deterrence by punishment is probably not that useful. The Russians already believe that we are waging hybrid war against them so it’s not that credible for them that we will do something that we wouldn’t do anyway.
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  236. Really don't know what's going on. I think it's a YouTube thing. Hope it works soon.
    4
  237. The right terminology is that it is the left bank of the river.
    4
  238.  @daryljonesfoster4102  I have not deleted any comments, but YouTube has an automatic filter that might have done it.
    4
  239. There are many things that the video is not about. Not a single word about global warming or labor conditions either! 😱
    4
  240. The long term goal is to make Nato go away. At least in Eastern Europe.
    4
  241. Twitter and I sort of grew apart, but Mastodon has more or less replaced it for me.
    4
  242. Thanks for the feedback. My impression is Maxim has a pretty big team that helps him prepare the videos, so they do the research. We did talk about TV-Rain in the interview. Clearly Maxim looks at it differently – he does not see it as helping the Russian army, but as raising the general level of protests in Russia.
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  243. It’s true that things such as mines can complicate the picture. I don’t think it would change the trajectory though. Ukraine has already guaranteed war damage insurance, so it’s relatively low risk for the shipowners. It’s a different story for the crews, of course, but they don’t make the decisions.
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  244. Thank you. It is fixed now. :-)
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  245. It can be hard to navigate the terminology. I try to be aware of the different feelings, but please don't be too harsh on commentators about the words they use. It can be quite discouraging when you put effort into making an analysis and then you are criticized about terminology.
    4
  246. I guess Ukraine would need to get across the river to shut the water supply, but yes, definitely a concern for Russia.
    4
  247. I think we differ a bit in our assessment.
    4
  248. I’ll be interesting to see how many they can equip in practice. He may want to mobilize more, but I’m not sure he can.
    4
  249. Congratulations. This is absolutely amazing. Well done!
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  250. Ukraine could have given in to Russia's demands, and then there would not have been a war. However, they assessed – correctly – that Russia was not strong enough to win a war, so they refused to be coerced.
    4
  251. The police is leading the investigation. Not sure what the considerations have been behind that.
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  252. That is a good topic, but this Wagner mutiny came in from the side and stole the scene. Ukraine won’t be able to wait for the fighter jets. It will take too long, so this summer’s offensive will be without F-16s.
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  253. Glad for at du kunne lide den. Næste afsnit kommer om et par dage.
    4
  254. I think the German word sounds better. ;-)
    4
  255. True, the weather would have degraded the performance further — and maybe also made the operator seasick.
    4
  256. Tak. I think you are right about that.
    4
  257.  @davieb8216  True, it didn't actually change the availability of gas, since no gas was running through NS already. But it did create uncertainty. Especially if we combine it with the drone sightings around drilling sites in the North Sea. There is now a heated discussion about the security of critical infrastructure.
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  258. I did adjust the title to include the word maritime. In hindsight I think it was more telling about the content.
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  259. Thanks. Hope you will find the newsletter informative as well.
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  260. I recommend this review of Seymour Hersh's blog post. https://oalexanderdk.substack.com/p/blowing-holes-in-seymour-hershs-pipe
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  261. Glad you found it useful.
    4
  262. Glad you find it useful. I did make a video about the privatization of warfighting in Russia back in January. A lot has happened on that front since then, though.
    4
  263. ​ @sbirchsbirch6232  Perhaps try starting in the middle, then. For me personally the latter part was the most interesting. 🙂
    4
  264. Der er danske undertekster. Du kan skifte sprog i menuen.
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  265. I think if they wanted to stage an attack on Moscow, then they would have targeted something less synonymous with state power. Like a church, for example, to drive home the point that Ukrainians are godless anti-Russians. Or they would have made a drone attack where all the drones were shot down in the suburbs.
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  266. I agree. You need more than just soldiers to fight.
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  267. I was probably thinking five in a handful … 🤔
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  268. It seems to work when I look it up, but I can’t verify it because you have to verify yourself as a Ukrainian citizen to complete the process.
    4
  269.  @blackcatdungeonmastersfami5311  That’s basically what I say in the video too.
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  270.  @tlmoller  You can say the same about Ukraine, though. They have much the same military history.
    4
  271. Thanks. I must admit that I have almost given up on commenting on Nord Stream because of the vacuum of reliable information. The German reporting is interesting, but I've spent too much time at sea to just accept that some scuba divers were able to do it from a sailing yacht in rough weather conditions. It seems very unlikely.
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  272. Yes I did at the end.
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  273. The did indeed return home. Many of them are back in prison after committing new crimes. Like this guy who committed a double murder after getting back to Russia. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66364272
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  274. Tak skal du have. Er glad for du finder mine videoer værdifulde.
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  275.  @robertfarrow5853 I also think Jake Broe is good. 😉
    3
  276. Whatever way you count these numbers, it's based on some serious assumptions, and I think your assumptions are also fair. I will say though that military service is not voluntary. It seems that in the end where you divide by four, you make that assumption that people can choose not to. But in the end 2.5 million soldiers is also a lot, so it really doesn't change the conclusion that Ukraine is not about to run out of soldiers.
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  277. You're welcome
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  278. Did you watch the video at all?
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  279. A vain one. 😊
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  280. Not sure how many they have received so far, but I am pretty sure they are receiving more.
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  281. Enig, det var meget naivt at blive så afhængig af russisk gas. Lad os håbe vi ikke gør samme fejl med Kina.
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  282. Thank you.
    3
  283. Thanks for this video.
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  284. Glad you found it informative.
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  285. Thanks. Yes, that’s a good topic that I have been wanting to cover for a while. So eventually I might get around to it. 😊
    3
  286. That was an epic moment.
    3
  287. Oh yes. Stalin’s message was highly ideological.
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  288. Interesting hypothesis. 🤔
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  289. Thanks. No lipstick. 😊 Maybe your screen has some wild color settings?
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  290. Jeg er meget enig. Jeg mistænker at der ligger en slags skandinavisk funktionalisme i det. Vi har en tendens til at tænke nytteoptimering og at blive irriterede når vi føler at der ikke er så meget indhold i en operation. Der kræver flådediplomati nok at man lige husker at nogle gange er det en pointe i sig selv at se godt ud. 😎
    3
  291. I think it’s too early to say. Generally I’d say that any attack inside Belarus smells like a false flag thing. But it could be Ukraine too.
    3
  292.  @henryyoung7184  True, Brian is very focused on Putin as the central figure. I do think he addresses your point more in part 2, though.
    3
  293. The training was approved long ago, but it didn’t start until this month, and it is scheduled to last for six months. So that alone brings us into February.
    3
  294. Their retreat from Northern Ukraine was also pretty good.
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  295. We’ll see. But definitely something is going on in the information space right now.
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  296.  @pasisovi  Not sure what you mean. China does naval diplomacy too.
    3
  297. Thanks. I see your linguistical point. :-)
    3
  298. No I don’t, and I also don’t say that Israel is not committing a genocide. I just say that the casualty numbers alone are not enough of an argument.
    3
  299. Thank you.
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  300. Thanks, Jake.
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  301. I think it's still too soon, but it is definitely something to look out for.
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  302. I guess I can cover that in one way or another at some point.
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  303. Yeah, it’s a tough standard. I would normally say that predicting things 4-5 months into the future is pretty good in a war. 🤷‍♂️
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  304. The way I understand your comment, perhaps I should have set the number of KIA a bit higher, but the number of wounded a bit lower. I think it still leads to roughly the same conclusion.
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  305. What I really wanted to say is that there is a kind of acceptance of the SMO, but that it is fragile.
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  306. Well, there have been ebbs and flows.
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  307. Definitely something doesn't make sense with these numbers.
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  308. You are right, that is a more accurate way to frame it. Power is relative in time and space.
    3
  309. Hej Martin. Der er danske undertekster på mine videoer. Du skal bare slå dem til.
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  310. I think those cases were different, though, because at that time it did not make sense to downplay the incidents. On the contrary, it would have been good to get the hybrid action above the response threshold faster. But the Ukraine war makes the current situation special.
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  311. Ja, den er lavet som lydbog allerede. Indtil videre dog kun hvis man køber den, fx hos Saxo. Der går et par måneder før den kommer på streamingtjenesterne.
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  312. Thanks for this update.
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  313. Not sure what you are talking about. Ukraine did not join NATO before the war.
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  314. Det er altid lidt forsinket. YouTube skal bruge noget tid på talegenkendelse, og derefter skal jeg ind og kvalitetstjekke. Jeg håber at nå det i løbet af weekenden.
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  315. These three points are not factors that lead to war but things to look for in the coming weeks to indicate the timing. I don't quite agree with you that Putin is concerned about an element of surprise this time. The preparations are very visible and it seems he rather wants the world to observe what is happening.
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  316.  @Oko-wv5ec  You too! 😊
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  317. Maybe someone else will finance a private army that is against Putin… 🤔
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  318. I agree. Between the time of recording and releasing the video, I also think it looks less like a collapse.
    3
  319.  @andrzejbarcelonafrlk6416  Thanks. Fixed. 😊
    3
  320. Vlad Vexler made a good video about that.
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  321. I liked your video. Saw it before I made my own, and I think they have different angles and complement each other nicely.
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  322. Not sure I would call that hybrid warfare though. It's just that they don't claim responsibility.
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  323. Hi. I did not delete your comment. YouTube does some automatic moderation, so maybe it has triggered something there. I will check later if I can find it. Regarding your question, I think it is a possibility that there was some kind of understanding between Ukraine and Russia about the withdrawal. It is just impossible to withdraw that many soldiers that quickly in an orderly fashion, and I doubt Ukraine would have let Russia evacuate their troops over the last weeks without a pretty solid understanding that they would also leave the city. But it is definitely a question where we don't have a clear answer about what happened at this point, so people are speculating in all directions.
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  324. I think Perun already came out in favor of Gripen – or a combination including it.
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  325. I think Russia is more durable than you suggest. In the long run, you are right that this is a disastrous course for the country, but they have a stable economy and it could be a slow collapse. And a very dangerous one too.
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  326. I’m from the navy.
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  327. I did not say that U.S. should do nothing in the Middle East.
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  328. The difference is that at that time, U.S. was the only state with nuclear weapons. They could use the bomb without fear of what other nuclear states might do.
    3
  329. I agree, it's far from guaranteed that mobilization would work for them. But I find it plausible that Putin could think it would work.
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  330. Well, it was. If Russia had succeeded with regime change, there wouldn't have been any war by now.
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  331. Thank you. I am glad you find it helpful. 😊
    3
  332. Thanks. Glad you find it useful.
    3
  333. Good points. You are right that one can dig much deeper into the numbers. The point is also not so much when exactly Russia will run out of soldiers, but rather that manpower is becoming increasingly constrained for them, and that sometime over the coming months this has got to show. Also a good point on the significance of the shorter frontline.
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  334. Sonar is not really usable for this purpose. It's slow, and the noise from the drones is low compared to the noise from the waves.
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  335. I make them as short as possible. It's much faster to edit three minutes than ten (my latest video was five minutes).
    3
  336. Not necessarily. The ultranationalists could bring him down, but they are not guaranteed to win the fight for power afterwards.
    3
  337. Thanks. Glad you like it.
    3
  338.  @floydkershner6591  Yeah, it is a big question that could be another video. I don't think winter will give Russia a chance to restock and resupply, because the war is not going to stop in the winter. It will just be more difficult. And also I think Russia is putting a lot of hope on Western resolve to support Ukraine to vanish in the winter (just look at all the bot comments to this video), but I don't see that happening either.
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  339.  @howtoappearincompletely9739  Thanks. I’ll check up on it. 😊
    3
  340. Looking forward to it. 😊
    3
  341. It disappeared from the Russian mainstream news coverage very quickly. Already next morning it was not mentioned in the morning news. It’s simply a Western myth that this was a big deal in the Russian media.
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  342. My eyes only stopped hurting after four days.
    3
  343. The Russian trade surplus is big right now, because their imports have dropped dramatically. It is not a sign of a healthy economy. Interesting point about the mixed narratives in Russia. True, you do see both storylines: The relationship with the West is unrecoverable, and also the West will come crawling back when it gets cold.
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  344.  @Socialisten  I don't feel like taking a big discussion about the theories about Nord Stream. You are welcome to disagree with my views. But I just wanted to correct your point #2, which is factually wrong and easy to dispute. Russia can go there and do it frequently.
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  345. Yes, the full-scale invasion started in 2022 – not 2023.
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  346. No, it breaks my heart that they don’t have a naval color.
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  347. It’s two different issues. In general, states can use their weapons wherever they want once they have the weapons. The restrictions are about handing them on to another country, where you would have to ask the country that has produced them if they are happy to include this new country in the club.
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  348.  @Jason-gq8fo  I’m also wondering if there is a British/American nuance here. Like with “the police is/are”. 🤔
    3
  349. Both sides have problems. Mentioning one does not mean it’s the only one.
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  350. Agree.
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  351. Thanks. Glad you liked it. :-)
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  352. Yes, absolutely. That’s what I mean when I say that it also requires political will.
    3
  353. That was actually the topic of my last video. It’s a small but very important group. Losing on patriotism: Why Putin fears the ultranationalists https://youtu.be/uT7Hx1d-jac
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  354. Thanks. Glad you like it.
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  355.  @yvonnetomenga5726  Good point.
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  356. Der blev givet en række tilkendegivelser til Sovjetunionen i forbindelse med den tyske genforening om at NATO ikke ville udvide sig, men der er løbet meget vand gennem åen siden da. Blandt andet er Sovjetunionen jo gået i opløsning, og det er tidligere sovjetstater som nu gerne vil være medlemmer af NATO. EU ser de som en lidt irriterende, men dog relevant aktør inden for økonomiske spørgsmål. Men de ser ikke EU som nogen relevant spiller i en sikkerhedspolitisk sammenhæng.
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  357. They have an official list of unfriendly countries, so I wouldn’t read too much into it. It’s not a new label.
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  358. The story disappeared from the Russian media within hours, and already next morning it was not mentioned in the morning news on tv. They are really not pushing this as a big deal.
    3
  359.  @MrBenbenky  Europe is essentially one common gas market so cutting off countries one by one is the same as gradually reducing the deliveries to Europe as a whole. My own country has been cut off for months.
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  360. It also says that "The real death toll is much higher".
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  361. Thanks
    3
  362. Winter will be hard for both sides, so I am not sure it will favor anyone in particular. But also note that the comment about time being on Ukraine‘s side here was specifically about the Kherson offensive.
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  363. You can find plenty of resources online explaining the problems with Hersh's story.
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  364. I haven't seen any official conclusions (aside from Russia’s), but the pictures you are referring to, are real. I would think, though, that the leakage of gas after the explosion can have created the same effect of bending everything outwards. There was a lot of power in that leakage.
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  365. Thank you. 😊
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  366. Thanks. Great video. I think this new format works well.
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  367. We did, actually, some months back. You can find it on his channel – but of course the discussion is a little old by now.
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  368. That is perhaps a possibility we shouldn't rule out. But they probably need to make more soldiers first.
    3
  369. Glad you like it – and thanks for your support.
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  370. Yes, Russia does not have a mobilization going on right now, so they don’t have people evading mobilization.
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  371.  @Atalaclys My point was just that it is a mistake to conflate the arrests of draft dodgers with a lack of personnel.
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  372. The way research frames it is that democracies surprisingly often go to war, so people are actually willing to vote for that. But they rarely go to war with each other, so more democracies could lead to less war overall.
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  373. Zelensky himself uses the wording that the question about territory doesn’t have to be resolved during the “hot phase” of the war.
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  374. Thanks for noticing. Yes, quite a milestone.
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  375. Som den video, jeg lavede om den russiske offensiv for 14 dage siden?
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  376. Ja, i menneskeliv ar det nok mere blodigt i Vinterkrigen, men der var også langt flere soldater indsat fra sovjetisk side. Der døde generelt flere soldater dengang fordi udbredelsen af panser ikke var så stor, så det var mere infanteritungt. Krigen er blevet mere teknologisk.
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  377. I'd also say that Ukraine's success is rather due to Russia's decline in artillery power than a lack of infantry.
    3
  378.  @blackcatdungeonmastersfami5311  Russia has been missing infantry all along. The new thing is that they don’t have overwhelming artillery anymore.
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  379. Why do you think Ukraine will run out of men before Russia? These are two big countries in war - not a David/Goliath situation.
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  380. I partly agree. It would probably rather be a task for Russian aviation than for the warships.
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  381. Glad to hear that! :-)
    2
  382. Thanks for your support.
    2
  383. Did you watch the video?
    2
  384. Thanks. Glad you like it. :-)
    2
  385. Yes, that’s another obstacle. It’s very hard to see that happening.
    2
  386. Perun is very good. Very well researched and good analysis.
    2
  387.  @mike_oe Yep. Did a talk at the library.
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  388. Very interesting and convincing comparison between GMLRS and ATACMS.
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  389. I recommend this review of Hersh's article. https://oalexanderdk.substack.com/p/blowing-holes-in-seymour-hershs-pipe
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  390. It’s possible but not necessarily the way countries actually design their systems.
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  391. Doesn’t matter, Russia is going to stop the flow anyway.
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  392. They are doing the same in the air with many domestically built drones, but it doesn’t quite replace fighter jets.
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  393. That is a fair criticism, and also one that we address in the interview. Clearly Maxim sees this as Putin's war, and he is very much against the idea that the Russian people as a whole is responsible.
    2
  394.  @fernandor8186  I am unsure whether you are arguing that a museum or a university building is a valid military target?
    2
  395.  @shogun8-9  Please enlighten me. Aside from a tweet that was taken out of context, I have not seen anything that points in that direction.
    2
  396. Could be. Also worth remembering that Putin has declared victory in Syria multiple times, so I could see him declaring a ceasefire.
    2
  397.  @shueyk2320  You are totally wrong. I literally said: "I think It's too soon to say whether Ukraine will manage to get the bridgehead or not in the long run. It's possible that Russia can find some resources to allocate to this, and that they will be able to get things under control." Stop making up stuff about what other people supposedly have said.
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  398.  @shueyk2320  You have to listen to what I say if you want to understand the analysis. You are also free to not listen, but then also don’t comment.
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  399. Thank you! Im glad you find the video useful.
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  400.  @Motofanable  Yeah, the colors are too saturated. No lipstick, though. 🙂
    2
  401.  @AndriiMalenko  👍 I was glad to see that too.
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  402. Tak skal du have. Er glad for at du finder dem værdifulde. 😊
    2
  403. Tror det er en fejl hos YouTube. Håber det virker for alle snart.
    2
  404.  @judedornisch4946  Yeah, maybe I need to improve my imagination. :-) It's an interesting thought that Ukraine could go that way and cut off the Russian soldiers from Crimea, but in the broader picture I think Crimea is vastly more important to Russia than Melitopol or Kherson. They would commit pretty much everything to preventing this from happening.
    2
  405. It wasn’t. Putin is clearly in a weaker position now than before it happened.
    2
  406. It would be interesting to see some statistics about it. My way of framing it was obviously simplistic because there is a spectrum along which negotiations take place. But I still think some kind of negotiated understanding is the norm, even if it is not called a peace treaty. This was also the case in Ukraine in 2014 and 2015.
    2
  407. Good points. I don’t think it’s just Wagner being committed to offensive actions, though. I also don’t see the strategic value in hitting Ukraine’s power grid beyond the short term. And I definitely disagree that an autocrat can do whatever he wants regardless what the people thinks. Putin knows that mobilization is a potential danger, and that’s why he procrastinated on it in the first place. I am open to the possibility though that instead of a particular plan for a quick victory, then what we are seeing is a weird combination of different plans and an overall lack of coordination.
    2
  408. Tak. Jo, jeg tror også det rigtige tal er tættere på ukrainernes end på Mediazonas.
    2
  409. Nej, det er ikke det man drømmer om.
    2
  410. No, that's not what I am suggesting in the video.
    2
  411. It is actually very hard to blow up that bridge, so it's not likely to happen. But even if it did, Russia would still have a connection to Crimea with ferries that used to serve that connection until the bridge was built.
    2
  412. It is generally difficult to jam (or detect) satellite communication, which is what the drones use.
    2
  413. Thanks. 😊
    2
  414.  @roncollins1046  I have no personal interest in Prigozhin being dead or alive. I made analyses of Russian politics with him being alive, and I will do it when he is dead. I think it's most likely he is dead, but I have not personally performed DNA testing. Not sure what you expect here.
    2
  415.  @roncollins1046  It is an epistemological discussion, and I think you are fundamentally misunderstanding the difference between sciences and arts. The positivist approach that you are advocating is not the right tool for understanding societal phenomena like politics or war. For that you need a hermeneutical approach, and there the standards for validity and reliability are very different. Regarding me being defensive, I think it's interesting to see how defensive you yourself turned out to be. You began with calling my content disgusting, lacking common sense and self-respect. Then you accused me of not representing my own views but just saying what I have been ordered to say by the state. But when I refuse to be bullied and respond reciprocally, you suddenly have hurt feelings and accuse me of having a harsh tone.
    2
  416. Tak. Er ikke helt sikker på hvad du mener med indledningen. Det fungerer fint hos mig. Er det mon noget med dit udstyr, fx Bluetooth høretelefoner?
    2
  417. Ja, reklamerne giver lidt indtægt. Jeg får masser af henvendelser om at inkludere sponsoreret indhold, og det har jeg sagt nej til. Men synes det er ok at få lidt for de reklamer som YouTube viser alligevel.
    2
  418. Thanks for your support.
    2
  419. Oh no, not those guys again. Please treat their statements with caution.
    2
  420.  @carlosc6440  No, you don't need to follow me. Just know that those people have been consistently wrong for years.
    2
  421.  @rykwon4535  I also think it looks like genocide.
    2
  422. That's why I say the symbolic value of such a loss would be so big in Russia.
    2
  423. Thank you. Well spotted. Yes, it really is very cosy. :-)
    2
  424. A good intelligence picture is definitely an important part of Ukraine’s success.
    2
  425. It's an excerpt from a livestream, so if you have watched that, then you are right.
    2
  426. I don’t think the incursion is big enough to be a problem if they really want to do it. Putin has talked about the need for a buffer zone, but it would require enormous resources and especially it’s hard to see how they would get the equipment for a new front.
    2
  427. Tak
    2
  428. I think it was just next on the map.
    2
  429. True, but the numbers he himself mentions in the interview also only set the Russian opposition to the war at about 35 percent. So he is not denying that a majority are for (or at least not against) the war.
    2
  430. Thanks, Jake.
    2
  431. Russia is not using 25-30 of gdp on defense. It’s about 6-8 percent, of which not all is used in Ukraine.
    2
  432. That is also a good guess. There is a problem with the Svalbard treaty, though. There are many signatories that would be angry.
    2
  433. Will be interesting to see if it will make a difference. But noteworthy that Russia needs to buy this capability abroad.
    2
  434. Haha, that’s interesting, I hadn’t thought about his name in that connection. I guess it’s because Putin is such a common word in English that I have internalized it.
    2
  435. Yes, they do. Not as many, but they have some.
    2
  436. It is definitely suspicious.
    2
  437. Ukraine was neutral until 2014. That didn’t work for them.
    2
  438. Basically very good thoughts. The only thing is that it takes time to train new soldiers, so it will be a gradual process to increase the size of the army. Ukraine has serious bottlenecks in their training system with the buildup right now.
    2
  439. A bit of both, I guess.
    2
  440. Of course it is possible to sabotage a pipeline so it looks like an accident.
    2
  441. It would not be possible to build that capacity so fast. It takes too long to train people and build facilities.
    2
  442. Tak. Er glad for at du finder det værdifuldt.
    2
  443. You're welcome. Glad you found it useful. ☺️
    2
  444. Thanks.
    2
  445. Thanks for your support.
    2
  446. Det er jeg glad for at høre. :-)
    2
  447. They said 5k 18 months ago, so I think he would have to say something bigger.
    2
  448. Thanks for providing this example of the Russian talking point that I mention in the video. :-)
    2
  449.  @AEH-df7ho  It’s in the video.
    2
  450. I don't recall saying that Ukraine was taking back territory in Bakhmut. Perhaps you are confusing it with the areas around the supply roads to Bakhmut.
    2
  451. They are two different Alis.
    2
  452. Good point.
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  453. I don’t think it’s appropriate to take videos down just if it turns out my analysis was wrong. That said, I am still not convinced that Nord Stream was sabotaged from a sailing yacht.
    2
  454. Glad you like it.
    2
  455. Sure, it was reported by Meduza: https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/11/30/make-peace-not-war
    2
  456. Yes, I saw that simulation. While interesting, it could just as well be a bug in the simulator, so I am reluctant to conclude anything.
    2
  457. Thank you.
    2
  458. In the long run there will be gas again from other providers. It is a short-term problem.
    2
  459.  @ThomasMelberStgt  But even if that happens, then it won't have any big significance for the war in Ukraine. That is really my point in the video.
    2
  460. Det er en god pointe. Det er også interessant at briterne i store træk køber Iver-klassen som deres low-end fregat. I Danmark har vi det med at se Absalon og Iver klasserne som high-end, men det er nok fordi de netop når tærsklen for at vi kan være med.
    2
  461.  @renstein8210  I didn’t. The Levada poll will show what people answer given that the alternative candidates are nobodies.
    2
  462. Thanks. Glad you liked the video.
    2
  463. Yeah, who would have thought … 😊
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  464. Thanks for the clarification. I mentioned the version that I had heard but this makes sense. I know the British were quite active in the Donbas. I have also seen other people claiming that it is named after a German town.
    2
  465. Thanks. Glad you find it valuable.
    2
  466.  @valeriesolanas4077  He was speaking to a live audience. It is normal not to look into a camera in such a setting.
    2
  467. Thank you.
    2
  468. Thanks for your support.
    2
  469. I do mention other examples in the video. Cyber attacks, GPS jamming (there was a pretty big case in Denmark), sabotage on public transport, the missiles that hit Poland.
    2
  470. Ok, værsgo. :-) https://youtu.be/_a291BJXTRo
    2
  471. True, some are in the occupied areas. It doesn’t change the end point, though.
    2
  472.  @ruifenghuang1029  I just mean that even if you think my number should only be half as big, the conclusion would still be that Ukraine is not going to run out of people.
    2
  473. Good point. I will change the title to make it more clear.
    2
  474.  @jekyl-gaming  Sure. As long as it does not result in reduced support for Ukraine, I don’t think it’s a problem.
    2
  475. Jo, det som ikke giver mening er at Rusland har fået smadret så meget af deres eget udstyr. :-)
    2
  476. This is why I thought it was important with an introduction video. Brian's point is much bigger than just a question of hawks and doves. So when you watch the interview, you can judge by yourself if you think there are weaknesses to his arguments that are emphasized by other schools of IR.
    2
  477.  @pieterwoerden2701  Yes, that is the optimistic scenario for Russia that they seem to be betting on.
    2
  478.  @macsmola  You should be able to cancel your free membership from the account page.
    2
  479. Personally I find that many people get confused about the term left and right bank, and that east and west are the easiest to understand.
    2
  480. Thanks, Jake!
    2
  481. Thanks. Glad you find them useful.
    2
  482. They do. This threat is only getting more challenging in the coming years.
    2
  483. I think it’s to be expected. It’s still very early to judge anything, and we are inferring from an information vacuum. But definitely Ukrainian success is not guaranteed in this offensive.
    2
  484. Thanks for your support. Hope you have seen the new video on the frontlines.
    2
  485. If we are not talking about classical escorts but rather a shielding operation with warships positioned along the route, I am not sure it would be possible to distinguish between the flags of the ships that enjoy protection. The warships would react to any threat that they observe.
    2
  486. That is how it works. Russia did not withdraw from anywhere without being under immense pressure.
    2
  487. Good point. The Russians might be able to do something similar. I think it’s more a question about the ammunition, though. You still need the radars to have the required situational awareness.
    2
  488. Ja, akustikken i rummet er ikke god til video. Jeg gjorde hvad jeg kunne for at gøre det udholdeligt.
    2
  489. Selv tak. :-)
    2
  490. It could. But I actually think a majority of Russians would favor ending a the war instead. So even though the ultranationalists could set the ball in motion, I think Putin’s fall would lead to less war, not more.
    2
  491. Glad to hear that.
    2
  492. If you had watched until minute 1:25 you would have found the things you are complaining about.
    2
  493. I don’t know how long it will take to dry up, and you’re right it may be a long time. But I have been thinking about how it will be in the winter. It could perhaps freeze and be solid then.
    2
  494. I’m not sure where you think my argument is wrong? It seems to me we agree.
    2
  495. Thanks. Glad you liked it.
    2
  496.  @Brissebrajan  Yes, but as with Serbia there is a good chance that will happen eventually. But also it would mean that those individuals would have great restrictions on their freedom to travel abroad. Basically they would have to hide in Russia forever.
    2
  497. The weather will definitely be a challenge for Ukraine but it will be the same for Russia. I think it’s hard to predict where the frontlines will be when the mud season comes.
    2
  498. Thanks. I'll reduce the volume on the music in the next video.
    2
  499. The Russians definetely counted on the Ukrainian shell hunger to continue.
    2
  500.  @ibraim3197  I don’t think we can see the Russian opposition as a homogeneous entity. Boris Nemtsov for example was very much against the annexation of Crimea.
    2
  501. Thanks. Glad you like it.
    2
  502. Ja, som @rogerwilco5918 skriver, så er MacGregor en ret dårlig kilde. Han rammer ofte forkert og siger ting, der slet og ret er mærkelige.
    2
  503.  @rogerwilco5918  Just agreeing with you in a different language. 😊
    2
  504.  @jcanizales  No, absolutely not. It does not achieve any of the original strategic objectives.
    2
  505.  @jcanizales  No, I don't think a land bridge was one of the main motivations for the war. It has become a priority because the attack on Kyiv didn't work, but I definitely don't see it as enough for Putin to be satisfied.
    2
  506. Thanks. Glad you find it helpful.
    2
  507. I guess it's possible, but Trump was tough on China when he was in office. Will be interesting to see how the sentiment develops, though.
    2
  508. I know. It’s been an occasional problem for a long time, but today it’s crazy how many comments that disappear.
    2
  509. Haha, jeg forsøger at veksle. :-)
    2
  510. Thanks for this summary. Good overview of the situation.
    2
  511.  @andrzejbarcelonafrlk6416  Done. Happy new year to you too.
    2
  512. On a general level, I guess. But a lot has happened since then.
    2
  513. I'm not an expert on economics, so it's a little out of my league. But I think the long-term consequences to Russia's economy will be severe. We are still very early in the economic war, and in Russia there is a state of mind that it is a temporary crisis, and that things will go back to normal in a few months. So I think we are still some time away from the consequences becoming apparent to the broader population. Especially the non-governmental extra sanctions from companies leaving Russia will have impact on the lives of Russians in the short term. In the coming years, the consequences will get worse as Europe prepares for energy independence.
    2
  514. It was super annoying. I was wondering if anyone would notice it. :-)
    2
  515. The Russian air defense is too strong for helicopters to be really useful at the frontline right now.
    2
  516. True, I didn't include that. But that is another reason to use the conscripts they have already instead of mobilizing broadly.
    2
  517. Yeah, it looks like that, doesn't it. I'll have to improve my color grading skills.
    2
  518. We are living in dark times.
    2
  519. Du har vist ikke set videoen.
    2
  520. Skarp kommentar. 🥴
    2
  521. Ukraine does have drones that could do this. The surprising thing would be that Russia didn’t shoot them down.
    2
  522. Doesn't seem like it's happening.
    2
  523. Selv tak. Er glad for du ser med.
    2
  524. Thank you. Glad you like it. I guess confirmation bias is always a risk, but we also need to listen to people that are on our own wavelength.
    2
  525. Thanks. Unfortunately it’s filmed in a different location than my usual studio, and it probably won’t carry over. But I am aware that I need to improve my lighting. 😊
    2
  526. I don't think he is suicidal or willing to sacrifice Russia. This was supposed to be a great triumph, and it failed. But it's a long step from there to throwing everything under the bus.
    2
  527.  @olgap.  No, that's unlikely. If Russia did it, the Western governments probably know about it. However, it doesn't make much difference. What makes Nord Stream so difficult to discuss is that even if there is evidence against Russia, the Western governments will rather point to everyone else. So everyone can interpret what is happening as evidence supporting their view.
    2
  528. @ He actually went on to congratulate anyway. 🤷‍♂️
    2
  529. @ I think it was a bit surprising how far he went in trying to flatter Trump. I guess he saw Zelensky did it and realized he had to do it too.
    2
  530. Good question. My hunch is Jeremy will still say that European navies need more missiles.
    2
  531. Thanks for your support.
    2
  532.  @Paulorific  ATACMS is easy to operate. You just type in the coordinates in a computer and press fire. Storm Shadow is probably more complicated because they have made a MacGyver solution to make it work with the Ukrainian aircraft. I would not be surprised to learn that some British technicians have been in Ukraine to assist. It would be the same challenge with Taurus so that is probably what the Germans are referring to. I would also expect that the complicated air defense systems like Patriot have required some service.
    2
  533. Thank you. Glad you like it. I’ll consider using this format more and not just as a secondary option. 😊
    2
  534.  @scathis1982  Это намного лучше тут на канале.
    2
  535. Thank you for this video. Very informative. What a contrast it is to watch you talk openly about hard topics like this compared to how they try to hide the bad news in Russia.
    2
  536. Hej Carsten. Ja, det er spam. Tak for at gøre mig opmærksom på det! Og træls at man skal bruge tid på at håndtere den slags.
    2
  537. Not necessarily. You can also have a party in charge, for example.
    2
  538. Det er en god pointe, men retfærdigvis hører det med at bemandingsproblemet var et tema i video 4. Når det er sagt, så synes jeg også at tidsperspektivet er vigtigt, for det skal ses i sammenhæng med viljen til at investere store summer. Det er helt vildt når man ser på hvor meget antallet af skrog er dalet i europæiske flåder over de seneste 30 år, så vi har et lavt udgangspunkt.
    2
  539. Ja, i hvert fald i Danmark. Men når man ser på andre flåder, er det måske en mere 1:1 reduktion. Fx er Royal Navy gået fra omkring 45 fregatter til 19 på tre årtier. Når de er færdige med at stille eskorteskibe til deres hangarskibsgrupper, har selv et stort land som UK meget begrænsede muligheder for at være til stede rundt omkring.
    2
  540. Maybe. But Putin's ability to control the narrative is surprisingly strong. He can get away with a lot of back-pedaling, and most people wouldn't even notice.
    2
  541. It is possible that the British delivered those waterborne drones to Ukraine.
    2
  542. 😂
    2
  543. Tak for din støtte.
    2
  544.  @dfredericks86  I guess the mud will hit sometime in October. It probably won't be over that quickly, but at this pace, who knows.
    2
  545. Thanks for your support. I’m glad you find the videos informative.
    2
  546. Maybe, but I think Russia feels pretty safe in the far east. They must, because they have left it mostly undefended, except from nukes.
    2
  547. I think it's a question of Iran not being far enough with the development yet. It's a problem navies everywhere are concerned about.
    2
  548. Selv tak for støtten.
    2
  549.  @Elisa-mg3rc  Did you watch the video at all?
    2
  550. It seems the history of the name is a mystery. I just mentioned what I heard from a Russian military expert, but I do see that indeed there are several different theories about the name.
    2
  551.  @TheEwanMC  Ok, I think. The Russians clearly decided to try to push the Ukrainians out.
    2
  552. It's a video about how Russia looks at the ICC. There are many things that the video is not about.
    2
  553. ​ @shanerooney7288  Not sure how that is relevant for the topic of this video, but I do acknowledge that one could make another relevant video about that topic.
    2
  554.  @olgap.  I am sorry if my response angered you, but I must say that I also found your comment to be inappropriate: "There is a narrow edge between analysis and propaganda and you’ve missed the mark (again)." I still have no idea why you think what I am doing is propaganda, or what that even means in this context. But in my book, propaganda means pushing a particular narrative that a governments wants, and I find it absolutely strange that you would think that's what I am doing. Regarding the specifics of your question, the first thing I will say is that it's important to be clear about what it means to be a great power. Israel, for example, is not a great power. So of the great powers in the world, the most obvious example of one that shares the Russian goals of redefining the world order is China. I think some good parallels could be made between China's behavior in the South China Sea and Russia's behavior in Ukraine. The problem is that to cover all this in a video, I would need to make a 45-minute documentary. That is just not the type of videos I make. I am running a vlog and not a production company, so I have to find ways to make it feasible. My rule of thumb is to keep it to one main point per video. If I have two important points I want to cover, I make two videos. That way, the videos build on top of each other over time. I actually have another video on the relationship between China and Russia, for example, which could be relevant in this context. The point I am trying to address in this video is about a conflict of ideas. Russia is challenging the notion of what we in the West like to call a rules-based world order (in Russia, they would probably call it a U.S.-led world order). My comment above was meant in the way that this rules-based world order probably never existed, but it is nevertheless something that most people in the West believe to exist. They believe that the institutions of this rules-based world order will play a crucial role in a process of justice that will take place once the war in Ukraine is over. And I think it's important that we have a discussion in the West, that this will perhaps not happen, and we need to have a clear idea about how the question of war crimes will become a point of contention when it comes to peace negotiations with Ukraine. If you're interested in more about the Western fantasy of a rules-based world order, I suggest watching a video by Vlad Vexler. I will not challenge the YouTube algorithm by including a link in my comment, but it's called "Why the post-1989 global system is facing collapse" and is on the Vlad Vexler channel. I think he explains it very well.
    2
  555. Tak for støtten.
    1
  556. Great video. I am inclined to thinking you are right about this ending like Russia's WWI mobilization.
    1
  557. Do you think it’s too loud. I am already reducing the music by 10 dB but maybe I should try 15?
    1
  558. There is a kind of shadow mobilization going on, but not at scale.
    1
  559. How?
    1
  560. Did you watch the video?
    1
  561.  @lenyshik22  I just don’t understand your comment then. I don’t give any advice to Tucker Carlson.
    1
  562.  @lenyshik22  I literally explain that in the video.
    1
  563. Did you watch the video?
    1
  564.  @ВладольфЗелтлер  I was just confused because your comments were so far off the mark in terms of what the video was actually about.
    1
  565. Tak for støtten!
    1
  566. Thank you. Your perspective on the North Korean troops is very helpful.
    1
  567. Thanks for supporting the channel.
    1
  568. Thanks for your support.
    1
  569. Tak for støtten.
    1
  570. Thanks. Glad you liked it.
    1
  571. Det er jeg glad for at du synes. :-)
    1
  572. Thanks for your support.
    1
  573. Russia accuses the West of everything. :-)
    1
  574. Thanks. And yes, I do remember. 😊
    1
  575. Glad to hear that. Thanks for supporting.
    1
  576. I think so too. I am not an economist, so I don't want to be too bold on this. But I do think the consequences of the sanctions will start to hit on the other side of summer.
    1
  577.  @Princip666  The whole video was about the river crossing. You could also have quoted the parts where I express uncertainty, and that it is possible that Russia will push back.
    1
  578. Thanks. Glad you like it.
    1
  579. Thanks. That’s a good point. Another important point is that Mediazona’s numbers don’t include deaths from the occupied territories, so the real number is significantly higher.
    1
  580. Unless they are mobilized, these men are not soldiers.
    1
  581. The comparison of defense spending in Russia and Europe is corrected for purchasing power parity. That can make sense but it's an important nuance to include. Adjusted for PPP, Russia has the fourth largest economy in the world.
    1
  582. If Ukraine wanted to buy more, they would be Russian.
    1
  583.  @AndriiMalenko  As a short-term stopgap measure that has been done.
    1
  584.  @AndriiMalenko  True, but in my video I am talking about building the air force Ukraine will need for the future. 15 years from now these Soviet legacy platforms will not do the job.
    1
  585. Selv tak. Er glad for at du følger med.
    1
  586. Thanks. The audio and video is synced ok for me. Are you using Bluetooth headphones? Also thanks for the video suggestions. One can say that Finland actually didn’t figure out the timing as well at we tend to think. They started the continuation war just a year later and lost some more territory…
    1
  587. No doubt it’s expensive, but it’s also a multi-year project. I also think there is an economy of scale effect.
    1
  588.  @johnwilliamsscuba6487  You also have to keep in mind that in this case you have one side with a free press and one side with very strict censorship. That makes it hard to assume the truth is in the middle. I'm not saying the Ukrainians are always telling the truth or that the Russians are always lying. But the Russians are often lying, and they get away with it because they closed all media outlets that would ask tough questions.
    1
  589. Thanks for your support.
    1
  590. Mange tak for støtten.
    1
  591. It's possible, but there is a lot of interpretation going on in those definitions. Putin actually did explain demilitarization before the invasion, but at that time it had a different meaning. It was a long-term thing that basically was an arms control regime where Ukraine would only be allowed to possess certain types of weapons and would be subject to regular inspections.
    1
  592. Thank you. I appreciate your support.
    1
  593. I actually did make a video about some of that. https://youtu.be/CxZ402BMSs8
    1
  594. You then suggest that Putin and Prigozhin are actually working together to stage an illusion of Prigozhin's death? I think there is a lot of problems with that theory.
    1
  595.  @roncollins1046  My point was just that if Prigozhin was not on that plane, then Putin would have to be in on the conspiracy to pretend he was. Otherwise he would not have confirmed it. Your comments about my person are just stupid. Try Google if you want to know who I am.
    1
  596.  @roncollins1046  You called me a military intelligence officer. That's pretty stupid. Regarding your wish to be critical and want data to be corroborated. That's all well and good, but this is not science. We only have incomplete information. So while I do think it's good to have skepticism, it is also necessary to trust someone and something. Otherwise you end up way too susceptible to bad actors and misinformation.
    1
  597.  @roncollins1046  I work at a defense college, which is a public educational institution. I am in the media almost daily, and the only place I am not wearing a uniform is on YouTube. It's not a secret where I work. I have nothing to do with intelligence agencies, and I find the insinuation that I pushing an official Danish narrative offensive. There are several examples on this channel of how I rebut something that NATO has said. Look for example at my Nord Stream video from February. Or my video about Wagner and Poland for that matter. Regarding this specific case, I really think there is a reason why almost no expert is seriously questioning whether Prigozhin is dead. It's not that everyone is gullible, but just that it really does seem like that is what happened. Both his friends and his enemies say he is dead. But here is the thing. Even if Prigozhin is still alive and living in hiding somewhere, then it doesn't actually change my point in the video. Putin is still acting like this was an assassination, and that message can be interpreted.
    1
  598.  @roncollins1046  Yes, let's end it here. I'm sorry you feel that way about my work, but I still think you fundamentally misunderstand the epistemology.
    1
  599. Whose analysis? I don’t make any money from Brian’s book… 🤔
    1
  600. Thanks for your support.
    1
  601. Thanks. Yes, it’s quite a milestone.
    1
  602. Selv tak. :-)
    1
  603. It’s not a proxy war when one country is invading another. It’s just a war. It is a new Cold War between Russia and the West, though.
    1
  604. Selv tak. 😊
    1
  605. They will try to shoot down the planes carrying the bombs.
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  606. It’s a status report. It’s not supposed to age in one way or another.
    1
  607. Glad you like it.
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  608. No it wasn’t.
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  609. Sandt, men Indien er allerede med i "klubben" af atommagter. Men det kunne da være at de nu også får lyst til at sælge nogen til Algeriet eller Venezuela.
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  610. Rusland har historisk set været god med hensyn til ikke-spredning. Jeg synes ikke vi skal underspille hvad det er som USA gør her. Hvis Frankrig havde vidst at USA var klar til at give atomteknologi til Australien, så havde de måske selv tilbudt deres Barracuda-ubåd. Det er ironisk at det uheldige ubådsprojekt netop gik ud på at ombygge Barracuda-klassen til dieselelektrisk fremdrivning, fordi Frankrig troede at den internationale konsensus var ikke-spredning. Næste gang vil Frankrig måske ikke holde sig tilbage. At det på den lange bane er til vores fordel med er stærkt Australien, er så en anden ting. Det siger jeg vist også i videoen. Men man kunne godt nok have gjort det på en smartere måde. Det er dårligt diplomatisk håndværk fra AUKUS-landene.
    1
  611. Thanks for your support.
    1
  612. Selv tak. 🙂
    1
  613. That's not true. Ukraine reported the missile attack hours before Russia said that a fire had broken out.
    1
  614. They seem to be doing that already. I don’t think they have the capability to ramp it up.
    1
  615. As always nice updates on the news. I am not sure I understand your new studio setups, though. Katya looks very small because there is so much table and overhead space in the frame, and the table microphone creates a barrier between the host and the viewer. I think it would be better to go back to a lav or a boom microphone and to zoom a bit more.
    1
  616. Could be a smart way of setting expectations, but I doubt it. Ukrainian defense minister Reznikov just said that Ukraine will definitely launch a big attack when the soil freezes, so in that case he blew the cover.
    1
  617. Thank you.
    1
  618. Glad you find it helpful.
    1
  619.  @renemichael8449  This is one of my shortest videos and with most b-roll, so I guess my content is probably not for you.
    1
  620. We all struggle to manage the hamster wheel of YouTube. Best of luck.
    1
  621. They are the best and most ready.
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  622. Thanks for your comments and the observations about the video being stitched together from different ships. Interesting image from the bridge on Stoiky.
    1
  623. The US GDP is about half of NATO's combined GDP.
    1
  624. Thanks for your support.
    1
  625. Øh, der er havne i Ukraine?
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  626.  @statepropaganda  Nej, de har flere havne som virker.
    1
  627. Coming up with good thumbnail faces is hard…
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  628. Glad you found it useful.
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  629. De skulle være der nu.
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  630. "Meat" is just the Rusian word for cannon fodder.
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  631.  @marcuslegion3654  Meat is just Russian slang for cannon fodder. You are overthinking it.
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  632.  @Crazmuss  In that case the pipeline can be repaired.
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  633. Thanks. Glad you liked it.
    1
  634. I think mostly it’s up to Russia to decide when to end this war.
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  635. It does indeed look like Ukraine has built a significant counter battery advantage, and that they are doing exactly that.
    1
  636.  @andersjjensen  Maybe they could improve, but it seems to me analysts on both sides agree that counter battery fire has developed into a real problem for the Russians.
    1
  637. Glad you think so. Thanks for supporting.
    1
  638. Thanks. But where did I give all those reasons for not attacking the bridge?
    1
  639. Glad you find it useful.
    1
  640.  @ulrikschackmeyer848  The Russian air defenses are still strong. They would be shot down if they go behind the frontline right now.
    1
  641. Thanks. Glad to hear you find my videos helpful.
    1
  642. Yes, there is a bit of overhead there. On the other hands there is also significant defense related spending hidden in other numbers in the Russian budget.
    1
  643.  @rykwon4535  I still think there is a good chance Russia did it. The video needs to be seen together with this other video, that I made some months later. https://youtu.be/EeP_ZZbBIl4
    1
  644. As a maritime nation Denmark will be very cautious about restrictions on the freedom of navigation. There is fear of a Pandora's box effect.
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  645. Glad you find it helpful.
    1
  646. Thanks for your support. It is much appreciated.
    1
  647.  @peka2478  It was mentioned by Объектив today. They are closely related to Maksim Katz. https://youtu.be/IuItX1E7WpQ
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  648.  @peka2478  Their content may have changed. By now I think it’s mostly just an overview of interesting stories from big media sources. I really like their daily updates on the frontlines.
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  649. I have a newsletter post about it from the spring. The short answer is that it is not really something Denmark can do, and that it probably also isn’t a path we would like to take. https://www.logicofwar.com/blocking-russian-oil-exports-through-the-danish-straits/
    1
  650. Thank you. Glad you like it.
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  651.  @ftboomer1  I didn’t mention Ukraine’s claim of 35,000 dead Russians either.
    1
  652. Great explanation of the nuclear power plant. Thank you for this.
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  653. I think it’s unlikely that China is sending any weapons or ammunition to the fight. They are trying to avoid getting caught in the middle of this conflict.
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  654. The point is there is no basis for saying that they would if there were a free election with real opposition candidates. We just don’t know.
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  655. Are you suggesting that I am uncritical about the Danish military? You should try following Krigskunst Podcast (also available here on YouTube).
    1
  656. Thanks for supporting. :-)
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  657.  @valeriesolanas4077  I'm just saying it was a press conference. There were many cameras. He could not possibly look into all of them at the same time, even if he wanted to.
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  658. I don’t think the drones are going fast before they are close to the target. And in real life you can’t just shoot at all small targets moving on 3-5 km distances. You have to accept that small boats are a part of the pattern of life.
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  659. Thanks for your support.
    1
  660. Yes, but it’s one thing to provide ammunition and another to provide the heavy weapons. I am not sure they can get a large number of tanks that way.
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  661. Glad you found the video helpful. 😊
    1
  662. Thank you for helping.
    1
  663. Thanks for your support!
    1
  664. Thanks! Glad you found the video useful.
    1
  665. Thanks. Glad you like it. 😊
    1
  666. Great to hear. :-)
    1
  667. Thank you.
    1
  668. Hmm, sounds like a YouTube bug. Hope it works soon.
    1
  669. Beautiful. Well done. Нет войне!
    1
  670. Demilitarisering definerede Putin som en permanent status med grænser for bestemte våbentyper og kontrolregimer. Ikke bare at smadre en masse udstyr. Denazificering er ikke klart defineret, så det kan være opnået når det passer i programmet.
    1
  671. Er glad for at du sætter pris på videoerne. Putin nævnte ikke specifikke våben, men bare alle våben som kan bruges offensivt mod Rusland. Det var i konteksten af at man ikke kan stole på ukrainske løfter om neutralitet, og derfor skal det kombineres med noget som kan måles og kontrolleres for at give Rusland sikkerhed på den lange bane.
    1
  672. According to Wikipedia the exact origin of the name is a bit of a mystery. 🤷‍♂️
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  673. Tak. 😊
    1
  674.  @MrArkaneMage  No, they actually do just disappear. I have experienced it myself as well. I commented with this account on one of my other channels and it disappeared. It's just not there, no matter how I look.
    1
  675. Maybe eventually. But for the time being I must admit I follow this conflict much closer, so I have more to offer here.
    1
  676. Thanks for helping.
    1
  677. Judging by the number of people that say that, the answer is probably yes. I did put in links to other videos where I explain what hybrid warfare is.
    1
  678. Good question. Might make a good video, but I think the short version is that it is very unpredictable.
    1
  679. I think there is definitely an aspect there which would have to be considered.
    1
  680.  @gustavalexander8676  I’m not scheduled for being there next week. But well, I wasn’t scheduled for this week either and ended up being there anyways. 😊
    1
  681. Good to have you back.
    1
  682. It’s from YouTube’s jingle library, so other channels can use it too.
    1
  683. I’ll let the publisher know you said that. Maybe that can forward the process. 😄
    1
  684. Tusind tak! Er glad for at du finder videoen værdifuld.
    1
  685. Thank you. Glad to hear that.
    1
  686. Winter will be cold for the Russian soldiers too.
    1
  687. Several people have been convicted for genocide, for example after the war in Bosnia.
    1
  688. Good point about the China as the enemy narrative might be Russian misinformation. Will be interesting how the far right frames the meeting between Xi and Putin next week, then. And thanks for the shoutout. 😊
    1
  689. These drone strikes on Moscow are clearly not false flag operations. I'm not sure why your reporter feels the need to repeat this hypothesis.
    1
  690. I think you are right on this. My experience is also that journalists in general try to do a good job but we desperately need more journalists with military expertise.
    1
  691. Thanks for your support.
    1
  692. That’s a good guess.
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  693. I think it must have been the claimed number of Ukrainian losses. In September the Russian defense minister said that they had lost about 6,000 soldiers.
    1
  694. The video was from before that attack. Otherwise I would probably have mentioned it.
    1
  695. Thanks for your support.
    1
  696. The deportation of children is a part of the genocide convention. So yes, he is being charged with genocide.
    1
  697. Thank you.
    1
  698. Tak. 😊
    1
  699.  @Damn6real  The strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure are not “retaliatory”.
    1
  700.  @Damn6real  They all also happened after Ukraine won the Eurovision. Correlation ≠ causality.
    1
  701. I have heard that proverb a lot, but I think it works better for tactics than strategy. There are many examples where a nominally smaller force has won a war.
    1
  702. Hope it works soon. It's fine here.
    1
  703. Selv tak for støtten!
    1
  704.  @crashnreset6987  https://www.youtube.com/post/UgkxrRbe65Yqx9GjHghOpVI64yWGsiwEuSPh
    1
  705. Ja, det var det helt sikkert. 😊
    1
  706. Thanks. I’ll check up on it. 😊
    1
  707. Glad you follow.
    1
  708. No, that is what my lips look like.
    1
  709.  @paulgooderham  There might be a color grading solution. I upgraded the camera a couple of videos back, and since then people have been asking about the lipstick. 😄
    1
  710. The Russian conscription age is between 18 and 30.
    1
  711. I’m glad you find it useful.
    1
  712. Sorry to hear that. Which ones did you like better?
    1
  713. It did happen in international waters. It's a mistake to confuse the economic zone with territorial waters.
    1
  714.  @Princip666  What do you prefer to call it?
    1
  715.  @Princip666  I’m not sure who you refer to as “the other side”. But assuming you mean Ukraine, then obviously things escalated as a result of their decision to fight.
    1
  716.  @Princip666  There are many countries supporting Ukraine, enabling them to fight.
    1
  717.  @Princip666  The SMO terminology is ridiculous. This is a war.
    1
  718. Good point that should have been in the video. Scenario 1 might quickly turn into scenario 2: “How did you go bankrupt? Two ways. Gradually and then suddenly.”
    1
  719. They have lost a number similar to that.
    1
  720. Thank you.
    1
  721. Thanks for supporting.
    1
  722. Thank you. Glad you like it.
    1
  723. They only took a part of it. Most of it was still controlled by Ukraine.
    1
  724.  @robertsteele474 It’s also a singular noun where the plural is “peoples”. 🤷‍♂️
    1
  725.  @Rastloese I think if I were to use a different word in this case, I would have said "nation". That was the meaning I was going for.
    1
  726. Tak skal du have. Er glad for at du fandt videoen interessant.
    1
  727. New barrels are definitely an important part of Russia's logistics chain. My understanding is that it is somewhere in the range of 3000-6000 shots before a barrel replacement.
    1
  728. Thanks
    1
  729. Yes, technically speaking it's there. But it's so expensive that no researcher can access it.
    1
  730. Thanks. 😊
    1
  731. Did you watch the video?
    1
  732. Thanks for your support.
    1
  733. Great video. Thank you.
    1
  734. Must be YouTube. I also don't see it in quarantine. It happens sometimes that comments disappear.
    1
  735. Tak. :-) Vedr. afdrift vil jeg foreslå det første kvarter af filmen om Mercatorkortet. Youtube vil af en eller anden grund ikke lade mig linke til den, men den burde ikke være mange klik væk. Jeg har ikke noget specifikt om middelbredden. Den mest udbredte fejl ved middelbredden er, at man roder rundt i fortegnene og får en middelbredde, der ikke ligger mellem affarende og påkommende sted. Mvh. Anders
    1
  736. Thanks for your support.
    1
  737. Mange tak.
    1
  738. Thanks for your support.
    1
  739. Sounds plausible, but the question is whether they can.
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  740. How?
    1
  741. Thank you. Glad you like it.
    1
  742. Glad you like it.
    1
  743. Der er også danske undertekster på mine videoer. Der går som regel op til et døgns tid før de er klar, men så kan du også vælge dem i menuen.
    1
  744. You greatly overestimate the quality of maritime surveillance.
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  745. Great video. The new studio is really nice. I also like that you use a lav mic again and don’t have a large microphone as a barrier.
    1
  746. Don’t tell anyone. 😊
    1
  747.  @scathis1982  Тут это не только карта, а тоже резюме о том что говорят разные источники. По моему LiveUAMap не очень удобно когда фронт мало движется.
    1
  748. Not necessarily. Nuclear weapons are difficult to use in practice.
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  749. Thank. Great overview. What a situation.
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  750. Thanks. My impression is that the United States actually did try to make Ukraine stop the attacks on the oil refineries, and that it was one of the purposes of Jake Sullivan‘s visit to Kyiv. But it’s not going to work, so I guess it’s better to change the wording to something like “being concerned”.
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  751. Yes, I disagree with them. They have been consistently wrong throughout the war.
    1
  752. Thanks. Glad to hear that.
    1
  753. Partly. I think China would mostly qualify as a one party regime, but Xi has definitely moved it more in the direction of a personalist system.
    1
  754. Thanks. And yes, their stated goal is a million soldiers in Ukraine overall. Not just in Kherson.
    1
  755. Why would Putin agree to returning to the 2022 borders? He believes that Russia is winning.
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  756. I definitely think it looks like they are willing to go very low in their stocks.
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  757. Thanks for the suggestion. Perhaps I should make an update to that video.
    1
  758. Thank you. Glad you find it helpful.
    1
  759. Maybe. Sounds ambitious. But if true, it supports my notion that this is about a quick surge and not a protracted war.
    1
  760. Tak skal du have. Er glad for at du finder videoerne værdifulde. 😊
    1
  761. Må jeg spørge hvilken skærm, du bruger?
    1
  762. Det er svært at gøre effektivt. Ukraine kan ikke ramme det russiske elnet så omfattende.
    1
  763.  @tomk3732  Mediazona’s numbers are much lower than the real death toll.
    1
  764.  @grahamstrouse1165 They literally write that on the website just below the number.
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  765. Right now he has very good control of the narrative, but that is what he would risk losing.
    1
  766. Thanks for your support.
    1
  767. Putin has been reluctant to launch a second wave of mobilization because he is afraid of the domestic reaction. If he does make that decision, he can solve the military problem, but it might create others.
    1
  768. I hope you are right about Biden's policy change. It's time to give Ukraine what it takes to win.
    1
  769. Exactly.
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  770. Doesn't really matter for the analysis, though.
    1
  771. That is literally what I say in the video.
    1
  772. Probably a bit too cynical to see it like that. Generally it is easier to trust Ukraine because they allow a free press, and Russia does not.
    1
  773. Thank you.
    1
  774. "Costume" is the Ukrainian word for a suit. The more I think about it, the more I think not using an interpreter was Zelensky's biggest mistake. It would have prevented Vance and Trump from interrupting.
    1
  775. That won’t happen, so if that is a condition the war will continue.
    1
  776. Tak for støtten! :-)
    1
  777.  @olgap.  I disagree. You are the ones projecting values into this, not me. Personally I think the rules-based world order is an illusion that we in the West need to get beyond. I am not trying to make an argument that we are somehow the good ones, because we are for law and order. And as I wrote above, I certainly do acknowledge that the arrest warrant against Netanyahu is important, and that the U.S. stance on the ICC is relevant. But it must be possible to make a video about Russian war crimes in Ukraine without explaining all that – just as one can make a video about Gaza without discussion Russia and Ukraine.
    1
  778.  @olgap.  You may think that this has always been how the international system works, but it is not how most people in the West have traditionally believed that it works. Regarding the bragging about war crimes on Russian state TV, then that is an indisputable fact. You don't even have to look to the debate shows or pundits. Even the news anchors on 1TV will talk with joy about how Ukrainians will have to get through winter without electricity. The war crimes have a systemic nature, and it is not vilification of Russians to talk about it.
    1
  779. Hope it works soon. I think it's a YouTube bug.
    1