Comments by "Miriam Weller" (@miriamweller812) on "Ukraine Should CANCEL its "Counteroffensive"" video.
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Going for crimea is insane, no matter how.
If they would have control over the Black Sea, you could start to think about it, but as things are, if they push south in what way ever, it's not only that there is a very narrow entrance to Crimea itself, what alone makes it a natural and of course heavily armed fortress - they got Russia all the time in their back. What giant armies shall hold the flanks to the east? Not even starting to talk what the Russian navy will do with you - and the air force.
Oh, sure, you could bring your missile artillery there, for example to attack the crimean bridge, what overall would not hinder the army much, it would be way more annoying for the civilians. But if you get that close, you have to scratch the frontline with them and than the chance to survive shrinks from ~80% (thanks to firing at the frontline from max range) to <5%.
Crimea itself is around as big as Belgium. That's not just something you just take
SImferopol and Sewastopol alone are two major cities both with over 300.000 citizens.
And that's just some marker and every single one of those point out how insane the idea is, to reach any of them with 50.000 soldiers (not even starting to talk, that Russia still got a ~500.000 army going in Ukraine alone PLUS the soldiers on Crimea, which are not even part of that).
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