Comments by "hugh mungus" (@hughmungus2760) on "Whatifalthist" channel.

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  49.  @delgado.adrian160  ships are alot bigger and slower than planes, and the ocean doesn't have alot of terrain cover so no. Antiship missiles are alot easier to aim. If anything the US attempting to fire back at land based launchers are going to struggle because the vast majority of them are mobile and well hidden. Finding and tracking US fleets off the coast of china won't be hard. China has no shortage of space based recon assets and over the horizon radars. As well as recon aircraft and drones. The only hope the US has is to stay well out of range of the majority of chinese missiles and hope the few that do get fired can be intercepted or aren't as accurate as they're advertised to be. Aka. Hope and pray. For the US to get into the taiwan straits with surface vessels, That is basically impossible. If anyone is going to have a jutland moment its the US foolhardily sailing into a swarm of chinese antiship missiles thinking its still the 90s Theres an off chance the US might get a sub or two into the straits but its unlikely they will survive when outnumbered 10:1 by chinese diesel electric subs lying in ambush Taiwan's resources will run out Much faster than the mainland because the mainland at least still produces about 1/3 of the fuel it consumes. With adequate stockpiles, rationing and pipelines to Russia, china could stretch that out for years Taiwan produces no fuel and the few fuel storage locations it has will likely be blown up early on. You can blockade the malacca straits for a while but you choke off the flow of oil to all of asia and countries like Japan and south korea will likely buckle before china does forcing you to lift the blockade eventually. especially if taiwan has already fallen and you're effectively hurting everyone friend or foe for a lost cause. Chinese bombers all have standoff weapons that outrange US destroyers. they can lob these at any US fleet from well out of their engagement range and fly back to do it again in 12 hours. Each chinese bomber can carry upto 6 supersonic antiship missiles or 2-4 hypersonic ones. And china has over 200 bombers. This is on top of the vast numbers of land based missiles and ship based missiles which range from subsonic sea skimmers to hypersonic glide weapons. Chinese land based missiles can reach the western shore of taiwan too. taiwan isn't very big.
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  86.  @delgado.adrian160  ships are multi hundred feet long slabs of metal. Spotting them with over the horizon radar or high attitude drones is pretty easy. A US fleet would also not be sailing with their radars turned off so they'd show up on ELINT even earlier. I won't get overly technical with how tracking a ship at range would work but needless to say, its quite easy to do in the modern age by any major military. Hypersonics are going to make it exceedingly difficult for the US to operate safely anywhere near the chinese coast. Which is the whole point. Also if the US intends to shoot down chinese satellites, the same can be done to the US. And the US has alot more to lose in that war since US hardware is operating half way around the world while china is operating right off its coast. A protracted oil blockade would bring all of asia to its knees and US allies would sue for peace long before china does. If the US cannot stop a chinese blockade of taiwan, then taiwan loses. And the whole US operation fails. China has enough raw resources to sustain itself if it no longer needed to manufacture for export. Especially when you factor in land trade with Russia. At best you cause economic damage to china. But since this is a war, chinese people aren't exactly going to care about the degraded standard of living. Japan is in no shape to get involved, they all together lack an expeditionary force and would just be throwing away their navy on a suicide mission if they tried to sail into the straits. What can blow US ships out of the water can take out japanese ships too. South korea can't afford to get involved because of North korea. The fact of the matter is I don't downplay any US weapon system. The US simply does not have a counter to chinese A2AD. Its been openly admitted that the US can't stop chinese land based launchers from blockading taiwan because the US does not have the capability find them as recon assets can't get close the chinese coast.
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