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Piccalilli Pit
Asianometry
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Comments by "Piccalilli Pit" (@piccalillipit9211) on "The Coming AI Startup Bust" video.
Its a problem for the US as many companies are not viable unless the AI BS pays off big time - Google just binned Prabhakar Raghavan. The whole US IT industry rests on AI paying off or line go down
5
IT WONT CHANGE THE WORLD you are projecting the future from past precedent in tech and projecting gAI from our experience of going from Zero to 1 Zero to 1 was a jump like we have never seen before - it was on a scale our brains could not comprehend and we assumed 1 to 2 would be equally large and 2 to 3 and 3 to 4. But in reality 1 to 2 was small, 2 to 3 minute, 3 to 4 microscopic all whilst the costs went up exponentially. And 4 is not NOT good enough, 14 MIGHT be but it will cost tens of trillions $ to get there ---> And there is NOT enough training data on earth to do it nor enough nuclear power plants in the world to power it. It will make a LOT of things worse, its primary role will be to replace humans with a system that is bad, but just good enough and cheaper. That said it MIGHT change the world in this way - It will flood the world with so much slop it might crash the global economy as nothing becomes usable anymore. I wanted a video on a new car model - I was instantly deluged with HUNDREDS of channels offering AI videos of face cars that will never exist but are claimed to be "Cirtoens 2025 Model DS25" The one area it will be astonishing is medicine - but China has that sewn up already.
3
WHAT $TRILLION$ PROBLEM IS AI GOING TO SOLVE...??? Cos the investment is soon going to top $1 Trillion I cant ever see generative AI being the thing people are saying its going to be - it is not magically springing into A G I as the tech Bro's hoped...
2
Dont worry - soon there will a massive flood of "nearly new" graphics cards on the market
1
YEP - they have to keep line going up and Ai just is not what we all first hoped. Zero to 1 was a jump like we have never seen before - it was on a scale our brains could not comprehend and we assumed 1 to 2 would be equally large and 2 to 3 and 3 to 4. But in reality 1 to 2 was small, 2 to 3 minute, 3 to 4 microscopic all whilst the costs went up exponentially. And 4 is not NOT good enough, 14 MIGHT be but it will cost tens of trillions $ to get there
1
@coolbanana165 2 reasons 1) this video "Was Penrose Right? NEW EVIDENCE For Quantum Effects In The Brain". the last bit - we are probably 9 orders of magnitude away from the comp[uting power needed for AGI 2) this was my other comment: IT WONT CHANGE THE WORLD you are projecting the future from past precedent in tech and projecting gAI from our experience of going from Zero to 1 Zero to 1 was a jump like we have never seen before - it was on a scale our brains could not comprehend and we assumed 1 to 2 would be equally large and 2 to 3 and 3 to 4. But in reality 1 to 2 was small, 2 to 3 minute, 3 to 4 microscopic all whilst the costs went up exponentially. And 4 is not NOT good enough, 14 MIGHT be but it will cost tens of trillions $ to get there ---> And there is NOT enough training data on earth to do it nor enough nuclear power plants in the world to power it. It will make a LOT of things worse, its primary role will be to replace humans with a system that is bad, but just good enough and cheaper.
1