Comments by "" (@efghggdxlmfn33) on "Kursk Offensive Failed; Rus Unfazed JSSAMS, Ukr Collapses Vuhledar, Rus Pushes Velikaya Novosilka" video.
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if this is the level of expert, professors, why be surprised?: Jan Kallberg, Ph.D: Every Ukrainian downing of Russian hypersonic Kh-47M2 Kinzhal with the Patriot missiles will improve the Patriot missile intercept algorithm - and increase accuracy for all Patriot systems, a benefit for the US, the rest of NATO, and other Patriot AD users. The same goes for any RUS aircraft that is shot down. Data quality is high because it is live tested; it is not a desk job or theoretical calculation; this is data from a successful intercept. The value of the data is really high as it can kick the success rate in the long run from, let's say, 85% to 99% against a type of target, so if RUS in a continued war launches 20 low-yield tactical nukes using 47M2 Kinzhal against NATO targets, with improved data likely no missile makes it to target. If the data had been unimproved - 3 would have made it through AD and detonated. Therefore, providing UKR with Patriot missiles is an investment in any provider's defense and gives high defense ROI as the improved algorithm upgrades its existing systems.
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@JohnJohnson-n3n During the peace talks between Ukraine and Russia in 2022, Western countries advised Kiev not to engage in "ephemeral security guarantees," which led to the breakdown of negotiations. This is reported by Time with reference to a statement by the head of the Servant of the People faction in the Verkhovna Rada and a member of the National Security, Defense and Intelligence Committee of Ukraine David Arahamiya, who headed the Ukrainian delegation at the talks in Istanbul.
As the magazine notes, within six weeks in Istanbul, the negotiators reached the outlines of an agreement: in exchange for security guarantees from Russia and other countries, Ukraine would agree to abandon plans to join the NATO alliance and accept the status of "permanent neutrality."
The Kremlin, Time writes, seemed ready to consider these conditions. However, by the end of April 2022, the peace process had collapsed. One of the reasons is the reluctance of Western countries to give their own "firm" security guarantees to Ukraine, as well as their recommendations to stop such negotiations with Moscow.
"They actually advised us not to engage in ephemeral security guarantees," Arahamiya said.
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@TeunisMarinus Western weaponry, long regarded as the pinnacle of military technology, has faced serious challenges on the battlefields of Ukraine when confronted with Russia’s powerful electronic warfare (EW) and countermeasures. Systems like *HIMARS* and *Excalibur* initially demonstrated impressive precision, decimating targets effectively. However, after early successes, these systems began to lose their edge as Russian forces quickly adapted, employing GPS jamming and disorienting precision munitions, leading to frequent malfunctions and misses. These events have exposed the vulnerabilities of Western weaponry when faced with a technologically comparable adversary, revealing that their advantages can be neutralized in a peer conflict.
Many now argue that the success of Western weapons in conflicts against adversaries like Iraq or terrorist groups created a false sense of invincibility. These wars were fought against technologically inferior opponents, allowing Western countries to employ precision strikes with minimal resistance. However, when up against armies equipped with modern EW capabilities, like Russia, these high-tech systems often falter. The stark reality is that these "wonder weapons" are designed for combat against less advanced foes and struggle when faced with equal or superior military powers.
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@TeunisMarinus CNN has recently reported that Russia is producing significantly more artillery shells than the collective West, including the U.S. and Europe. According to NATO intelligence estimates, Russia is currently manufacturing about 250,000 artillery shells per month, or approximately 3 million per year. In comparison, the combined production of the U.S. and European countries is much lower, at only about 1.2 million shells annually. This production gap is particularly concerning as Ukraine continues to rely heavily on Western-supplied munitions, and the demand for artillery in the ongoing conflict remains extremely high.
The disparity in production is attributed to Russia's large-scale mobilization of its defense industry, which has ramped up significantly since the start of the war. In contrast, Western defense manufacturers are facing challenges in scaling up production quickly enough to meet the high demand. This has become a critical factor in the ongoing war, with both sides recognizing that the ability to sustain a high rate of artillery fire will be a key determinant of future outcomes
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