Comments by "r baxter" (@rbaxter286) on "Sabine Hossenfelder"
channel.
-
I helped build 3 in the 70s that were YEARS behind and hundreds of millions over budget and situated in an area with a mushrooming population. Oh, and two were on a river that had flow decreases in the summer so they had to cut power ..., all because the project save tens of millions not having to build a new transmission line for them. Guess who has to pick up the $$$$ for the power they have to 'import' because of that screwup?
Oh, oh, and because the utility on two of them ignored their OTHER units, those units got shut down by the NRC for general incompetence and arrogance to regulators. How much more money do you think that utility incompetence cost the rate payers? We'll not discuss their horrendous waste handling practices and the like.
All of this was in a era where a huge talent pool of nuclear construction was present, and YET they couldn't get my 3 plants finished near time and budget NOR could the 2 Georgia Power plants get finished on time or budget, but needed an emergency flare to the industry to dig them out of their hole.
NOW, guess which utility considered itself qualified to build the nuke vendor's LATEST, GREATEST, FASTEST, SHINIEST PLANTS, yet they STILL went $Billiond and many year OVER?!
If you don't have the experience, the industry and the people who got their golden retirements from it will snow you every time with lies, promises, and marketing.
50
-
45
-
43
-
28
-
16
-
12
-
10
-
9
-
9
-
The overruns and slipped schedules will be AT LEAST as bad because, just like every project I've been involved with from nuke plants to smaller ones, the vendors will lie about costs, the what-used-to-be-called AE (architect/engineer) group doing the integration design, the engineers and techs on the site, the craft on the site, and anyone else involved will STILL have the tacit desire to LIE THEIR BUTTS OFF to ensure a long gravy train throughout the entire process. And, I'm talking about Lies of Commission and Lies of Omission.
In case I hear the ole "but why would they lie and jeopardize the project?!?!", I point to VW and the diesel HIGH CRIME, ENRON and it's idiocy, and Siemens and their HUGE bribery scandals. I can include any number of incompetent/looking out for their paycheck US nuclear projects and equipment vendors/AE Firms, too.
9
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
Let Poland be the SOLE update. The 'experts' and 'engineers' are either INCOMPETENT and/or ECONOMICALLY ILLITERATE and/or ...
... SNIFFING OUT A PAYCHECK ... as they have REPEATEDLY DEMONSTRATED OVER MORE THAN 50 YEARS!
AND, GE?! They are the same who designed that execrable containment on their FIRST TRY of the BIG BWRs at Fukushima, too!! That containment was a running sore in the nuclear industry for DECADES with structural flaws and the like.
The US DOE has just CANCELLED an SMR installation, and I don't see ANY small utility being able to support or sustain INTEREST to support the infrastructure for nuclear power, technically and regulatory ..., even with the NRC trying to crawl to their RETIREMENT with JUST ONE MORE series of regulatory jobs.
Small Modular Reactors (spit) will be 'economical' just like the B/S 'advanced reactors' were 'economical' in the US ..., until NOBODY COULD AFFORD THEM except some poor fools here in Georgia. Even the Good Ole Boy ethical cesspit of South Carolina CANCELLED the reactors.
SMRs are just another B/S 'Murican PR and MARKETING Campaign by people who can't make a buck elsewhere.
Nuclear power is back wherever the NUCLEAR POWER INDUSTRY AND LOBBY ARE STRONGEST AND $$$$.
If you haven't worked IN THE INDUSTRY, you really need to get some 'expert' opinions from people who have the inside info on this that is not particularly 'bright and shiny'. The tech is nifty, but the continued support required and the need to maintain small groups of expert knowledge have ALWAYS been an albatross around utilities' necks. Let's finally put a stake in the heart of the Admiral Rickover Zombie.
You do an excellent, unsurpassed job on Real Science, why don't you practice some of the 'attempted falsification' that makes Real Science so robust by focusing it on this Big Business tech ghoul?! The OLD units may have been mistakenly removed from service, BUT THAT IS NO REASON TO SEW ANOTHER CROP OF NUCLEAR DRAGONS' TEETH TO POISON THE FUTURE!!
2
-
2
-
2
-
If Air Products, with their vast experience in creating, handing, and transporting industrial gasses, isn't in with a product in The Empire of Vulture Capitalism that is the state of Texas, then it's time to bail by everyone except people with huge egos and big pockets (European companies with massive government subsidies?).
Oh look, your later reporting sorta bears that out!
I'd say the BIG Problem is a lot of cheap INVESTMENT $$$$ looking for a place to go, but all the GOOD, PRUDENT investments have been taken for years. The investment firms gotta make their service fees SOMEHOW!
The BIG, BIG Problem is were at the end of an economic cycle and INNOVATION IS DYING before the start of the next cycle; INNOVATION drives the cycles, and this is a great predictor of the end of the recent past's fairly stable growth period.
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
He sounds like the people I knew (not me, no, NOT ME) who didn't want to do the homework to get a correct answer in either his math or applied-physics classes, and felt insulted when his professors graded his work appropriately. I have been trained that answers with uncertainty calcs, as appropriate, are really necessary.
I'd suggest he be required to furnish appropriate theory-based uncertainty calculations to show his work is actually useful instead of assigning a 'ghost in the math' hypothesis. You know, asserting that it's QM level effects in the brain cells that 'create' consciousness, which conveniently side steps having to be the systemic analysis of neural networks.
WOW, you actually ended up in the same place I did!! Wrote that Penrose allusion before you got to it in your presenta6tion, so in terms of local time and variables, so I claim local credit for it! Unless you were psychically willing me to converge on your conclusion?! That would be Evil ..., Pure EEEEVILLL!
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
A Cybertruck owner said it was so?! And, Weinstein the Grifter says, "Hold that thought!"
Well, now you got me interested because all those drones over the US East Coast seem to have disappeared as if they were just a radio/internet hoax ..., like the War of the Worlds ....
Note, please, how well 'classifying' the math stopped thermonuclear technology from spreading around the World ..., ask the boys at The Progressive, and look at how that entire issue resolved itself.
Also, sounds like a lot of physics 'research' spends its time Drinking inside the Error Bar, like the nuclear engineers in the old Beta Bar.
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
Now, apply everything "Sabine Sez" to the nuclear power game, from the grifting vendors to the craft doing the code welding and concrete placement.
That is EXACTLY what I've pointed out in the past.
Project Managers, System Designers, Equipment Vendors, Field Engineers, Startup Engineers, Operators and all the people who point to professional certificates, code stamps, university degrees, and government (self-)certifications are just as venal as the 'scientists' Sabine is expressing her doubts about.
The problem with the nuclear industry is they've managed to neuter the Quality Assurance and Quality Control programs and policies that were intended to at least SOMETIMES police the industry in the name of Self-Policing AND LOWER COSTS!
You know, the kind of regulatory capture that gave us Fukushima, and is clearly documented in the final report on that debacle.
1
-
1
-
Thanks for covering this story which would normally get tamped down by the people trying to make a cheap $$$ on this tech.
And, sorry, what is your practical experience cleaning up nuclear material, as in even that spread about from a fizzle? The best analysis I've read from the 1990s pretty much ended up with an abandoned Manhattan. I now forget the gentleman's name, but he was an acknowledged expert in the field and worked with the UCS.
BTW, that NC professor is just looking to keep his job teaching fools ..., er ..., eager students the guild secrets of nuclear engineering.
Just another enrichment boondoggle in the US which the DOE will be left holding the bag on when this all blows over ..., like the previous processes people have tried to use this Left Behind DOE site for ..., piggy-backing on the local dead economy and past risk/safety analysis for the site.
A lot like the multi-billions $$$$$$$$$ DOE spent on the recent MOX fuel facility in South Carolina ..., which failed as everything but an anchor to make sure SC doesn't drift out to sea ...
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
So, the report highlights some of the UTTER SCAM that nuclear power is, from engineers who lie about costs on to project managers who can't manage them, either.
Perhaps that was demonstrated when, as I noted elsewhere, the APR project in South Carolina was sunk with HUGE time and $$$ overruns ..., and then they had to admit they made their Project Schedule they showed to SC government officials base on SALES PROCHURES AN PROMOTIONAL LITERATURE FROM THE MARKETING DEPARTMENT OF THE PLANT'S VENDORS?!
I worked building and bringing on line some of the last large nukes in the US back in the 1980s/90s, and I saw the incompetence and fraud involved at vendors, AE firms, constructors, utilities, etc., as in ALL SEGMENTS OF THOSE PROJECTS. I see no reason to think ANYTHING has changed, and Georgia Power and SC utilities proved it for the "NEWER, FASTER, BETTER" APR scam, and now you show the same for SMRs.
I wish it was not so, but that's the reality.
1
-
I respect your opinion and enjoy your presentations in SCIENCE and RESEARCH.
I now live in a area where the BEST NUCLEAR HAS TO OFFER HAS DROPPED AN EXCESS BALANCE OF $6 BILLION TO $7 BILLION ON THE RATEPAYERS BECAUSE OF THEIR INCOMPETENCE. ARE YOU GOING TO PITCH IN TO HELP PAY THAT OFF?! AND, any profits from selling 'excess capacity' that these plant's generate WILL GO TO STOCKHOLDER, NOT BE PRO-RATED TO THE RATEPAYERS to pay off that criminal cost blowout.
ADDITIONALLY, THAT IS $7 BILLION OVER THE BUDGET, NOT THE actual many MORE $BILLIONS that the plant ACTUALLY COST.
Oh, AND THAT IS NOT INCLUDING THE $BILLIONS WASTED ACROSS THE RIVER FOR THE SAME PLANTS CANCELLED BECAUSE OF SPIRALING COST?!
How much are YOU going to pitch in to pay for those plant, which were built with the ALLEGEDLY BEST OF CURRENT PRACTICE, NOT THE OLD GENERATION
WHEN AND HOW ARE YOU GOING TO HELP PAY MY ELECTRIC BILL AND ESPECIALLY THE BILLS OF THE MILLIONS OF POOR PEOPLE IN THE STATE?!
HOWEVER, until you present me with evidence you have any experience running a PROJECT of the breadth and depth of constructing a nuclear power plant, and until you present evidence you have any experience in bringing a NEW, HYPED-AND-OVER-MARKETED tech like the current crop of GET RICH QUICK SCHEMES that are small reactor, and until you present any evidence you have any experience in safely and EFFICIENTLY operating and maintaining nuclear reactors you are merely PARROTING THE SALES BROCHURES OF A BUNCH OF DISREPUTABLE AND/OR CLUELESS CON ARTISTS.
I was in The Industry for many years and helped bring the last few plants on-line in the US. Even at that time, it was a huge bunch of clowns and incompetent project managers when there were decades of experience just lolling about to be applied.
Again, what is YOUR experience, especially dealing with the LIES and CROOKEDNESS of Big Industry, especially with the people pushing it like GE.
BTW, please spare us the tales of Japanese nuclear, as Fukushima SHOWS CLEARLY that the Japanese Nuclear Regulator was in the pocket of the utilities. That is what gave us Fukushima.
PLEASE go back to the things you excel in. You do not excel in the financials and the costs to the ratepayers, LIKE SO MANY TECH AND SCIENCE DON'T
Oh, and until YOU are going to set up a Patreon for all the ratepayers ripped off by these boondoggles, by the US practice of state-based utility management ,YOU have no dog in this fight, so PLEASE BUTT OUT! These plants are LOCAL burdens with NON-LOCAL profits, so you can just go back to your research, please.
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
The problem is not with the tech, it is with the EFFICIENT CONSTRUCTION AND EQUITABLE SHARING OF COSTS OF THESE INSTALLATIONS!
The local Vogtle new reactors are most likely safe, BUT THE RATE PAYERS ARE GOING TO BE SOAKED FOR $$$$ BILLIONS IN COST OVERRUNS FROM CONSTRUCTION LIES AND MISREPRESENTATIONS ALONG WITH CORRUPT SCHEDULE SLIPPAGE ON THE PARTS OF THE PROJECT!!!
Of course, the $$$$$$$ stolen from the ratepayers will not affect the DIVIDENDS OF SHAREHOLDERS, ESPECIALLY WHEN THE POWER IS SOLD OUT OF REGION BECAUSE OF LOCAL OVER CAPACITY. This has been covered time and again, as in how ENRON was soaking California in power costs, but the ratepayers didn't see their part of that loot, only the shareholders and company officials.
But, as usual, "engineers' always shield themselves from criticism by saying 'it was the other guys who did that, honest!', and Joe Public is stupid enough to believe them.
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
It's not a question of SPECIES!
It's a question of a Tool User and a Tool.
The question is will there be SUFFICIENT, HIGH QUALITY CONTROLS instituted by the money grubbing business world, where there are both civil and criminal culpability enforced for torts and crimes that are legally defined for people who use such tools without regard for the outcomes?
RIGHT NOW, there are $$$$BILLIONS flowing in arbitrage and hedge funds and derivatives trading that can and almost did bring the World Economy crashing down, all because the regulators were too inept or constrained by corrupt, inept, and/or lazy politicians to prevent wide scale fraud from disregard of due diligence on the part of financial institutions.
In these cases of Tool Users misusing a Tool, it is aptly a case of the Tool Users, in the guise of financial traders who did NOT understand the programs in use but DID have the right Good Old Boy Connections, a case of those Tool Users OBVIOUSLY being 'dumber' than the PhDs with the right math and science backgrounds who actually ran the programs but did not do the actual Business Fraud. I already almost had a PhD nuclear assay 'scientist' poached from my group by several financial firms who wanted to use the PhDs expertise in data analysis and methods to drive their Vulture Capitalism business ventures.
This sci-fi Man vs. The Machine/Robot seems to be VERY over-dramatized, and the actual circumstances ALREADY exist in lesser form, today. We've learned some of the lessons, so time to dump the fantasization of this subject and get on with practical policies to deal with it.
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
There is ABSOLUTELY NO INFRASTRUCTURE ON MARS to support the technically demanding and advanced artificial environment that is needed TO KEEP PEOPLE FROM DYING IN MINUTES OF TOUCHDOWN! And yet, we can't even get clean water to all people on Earth, yet!
Examples:
A diffusion unit breaks and immolates several near it, rendering it impossible to support 500 of the people currently living there. Where do you 'buy' one? You can't take huge inventories there and store them SUCCESSFULLY AND SAFELY for possible emergencies! You can't even do so on Earth, like keeping adequate spares that are compatible with your equipment in a normal industrial setting where there are hundreds of facilities around Earth that may need fixes or replacement.
The equivalent of a 'sea chest' ruptures on a Mars module, rendering it uninhabitable and unable to support operations. How do you fix it when this was all built ON EARTH IN HUGELY FAVORABLE MANUFACTURING ENVIRONMENTS!
The population starts dying of unforeseen feed back between excessive radiation exposure, food 'manufactured' on Mars, and lack of drugs.
A Supply ship crashes on the main command and control area and fries huge amounts of information and electronic command and control systems, along with making HUGE breaches in the environmental containment need TO KEEP PEOPLE FROM DYING IMMEDIATELY!
Some psycho who BOUGHT his way to Mars breaks down because Daddy/Mommy can't buy him a ride back to Earth, so he goes around sabotaging the colony or outright destroying airlocks because he's high up the food chain because of Daddy's/Mommy's money and has the means and clearances.
Space Karen was too cheap and crooked to do adequate risk assessment on merely his StarShip base, opting instead to just keep blowing things up until he succeeds with some extra duct tape and bailing wire. He is TOO CHEAP TO EVEN HAVE AN ABORT RESCUE SYSTEM ON HIS STARSHIP TO POSSIBLY SAVE A CREW OR HUGE NUMBER OF PASSENGERS ON A LAUNCH FAILURE; HIS STARSHIP IS NOT MAN-RATED!!!
Colonizing Mars is a pipe dream, and I mean a CRACK PIPE DREAM! Mars will NEVER be able to support itself, so it is NOT some bolt hole for Earth on Mars, like New Zealand and the like are for crooks on Earth. When Columbus had ship problems in the New World, THERE WERE STILL TREES, NOT TO MENTION OXYGEN, TO REPAIR HIS SHIPS TO GET BACK TO THE OLD WORLD.
That LAST FACT is the stake in the heart of this SCAM/CON JOB/PONZI SCHEME!!
If Life dies on Earth, IT WILL ALSO GET SNUFFED OUT ON MARS IN JUST ANOTHER FEW MONTHS..., and there will be no 'cavemen or intelligent apes' left on Mars to populate The Planet of the Apes fantasy world, either. That is the ADULT FACT that con men like Space Karen ignore on their way to fraudulently stealing money from the government and investors RIGHT HERE AND NOW!
You know FRAUDULENTLY LIKE HE USED HIS SCAM HYPERLOOP TO RUIN THE CHANCE OF CALIFORNIA GETTING HIGH SPEED RAIL THAT WOULD OBSOLETE HIS STILL-NOT-CARBON-NEUTRAL EVS AND THEIR GOVERNMENT SUBSIDIES!!!!
The Common Sense Skeptic and Thunderf00t have debunked this on their channels in FUNDAMENTAL TERMS years ago, and nothing has changed since then.
Oh, and I've worked in and supported high-tech, hazardous material and atmosphere environments for decades. This is all from personal experience with even 'last-decades-tech', much less the bleeding edge tech Space Karen pretends exists. We can't even keep a space station habitable for a handful of tenants without huge costs and decaying orbital infrastructure. Now add a couple decimal points to that population and to the cycle times of emergency response. People with experience in such industries know Musk is a crook and his continual NON-DELIVERY ON HIS PROMISES AND 'PROJECTS' IS PROOF.
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
Given how weak human minds and brains are at filling in the 'unseen' parts of visual scenes, real, imagined, or reproduced; and seeing how bad some people are at understanding GREAT fiction works, yet a professor or friend can 'splain the plot and nuances to them; and seeing how most people can't do Real Physics, but can follow 'Lies We Tell Children' and have people with an education 'splain things, ditto for falling-to-sleep lectures which can make sense when hearing when conscious; I think there are practical examples ENOUGH to say we are NOT the creators of our own reality.
Oh yeah, lets include your YouTube along with other Real Science ones being able to educate and re-educate a brain and mind when the idea was never in that mind to begin with.
The dreams I have are lucid, but they are far closer to what my Realty would be like, like the Dreamlands in Johannes Cabal and the Fear Institute (another tacit example of my practical proof).
This is a question of brain sophism, where words are mistaken to be the same as the thing they name or describe.
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1