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Sri Lanka has three structural economic weaknesses 1.) lack of food sovereignty, 2.) lack of energy sovereignty, and 3.) low value-added exports. These deficiencies imply that accelerating the country’s economic engines leads to more pressure on its external balance, a weaker exchange rate, higher inflationary pressures (especially food/fuel/medicine and basic necessities), and, as a result, it leads to the classic trap of external debt.
Here is how it all started. Sri Lanka, like many countries in the Global South, began the liberalization of its economy in 1977, and adopted a classic IMF-style economic development model based on exports, foreign direct investment (FDI), tourism, and remittances. This development model remained tamed during the civil war (1983-2009), but it was fully unleashed in 2009, and that is when external debt began to skyrocket, going from $16 billion in 2008 to nearly $56 billion in 2019. The value of the Sri Lankan rupee dropped from 114 to 178 LCU/USD. Thanks to a massive increase in government subsidies and transfers reaching more than 30 percent of government spending in recent years, Sri Lanka struggled to keep inflation below 5 percent. Yet, economists celebrated Sri Lanka’s great achievements with an average growth rate exceeding 5 percent in the decade after the civil war, and a real per capita GDP growth putting the country officially in the upper middle-income economy category. Sri Lanka was following the mainstream economic development model like a good student. In the decade starting in 2009, exports grew from $9.3 to $19.1 billion, tourism quintupled from 0.5 to 2.5 million visitors annually, FDI inflows quadrupled by 2018 to a record $1.6 billion, and remittances doubled to nearly $7 billion annually. These are the four engines of Sri Lanks’s economic growth, but they are also the engines driving the country deeper into the structural traps of food and energy dependency, and specialization in low value added exports.
Here is how these engines constitute a trap. An increase in tourism induces more food and energy imports. An increase in remittances means more brain drain. An increase in low value-added exports induces more imports of capital, intermediate goods, fuel etc.; and an increase in low value-added FDI does the same plus the repatriation of profits out of Sri Lanka. On a global scale, these neocolonial economic traps have suctioned $152 trillion from the Global South since 1960.
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@hevnervals They don't have majority shares in all of them, but they do for a lot of them. And the combined value of their shares, both majority and minority, coupled with the soverign wealth fund accounts for 76% of non home wealth in Norway. A wealth fund that is collectively owned and distributed is socialist, especially when it's used to fund a large welfare state. Socialism has many different variations, some emphasize firm-level worker ownership ( cooperatives), others industry-level worker ownership (syndicalists), and still others society-wide ownership (i.e. social wealth fund advocates). Some think wages and salaries are problematic (e.g. mutualists), others think product prices are problematic (decommodifiers) Alberta and saudi arabia can be said to have socialist element when it comes to their wealth funds, as can Alaska. Which of course isn't the same as saying they're socialist.
Unions might not be inherently socialist, but labor unions that powerful are certainly a halmark of a socialist country and collective bargaining on that scale act as a block to the "proper functioning" of the market. And like i said, im not arguing that Norway is a socialist country (At what point does a country turn fully socialist?) im saying it's a mixed economy with, in my view, a "perfect balance of capitalism to socialism"
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@ligmafigma9631 Sri Lanka’s government ignored its structural weaknesses, didn’t invest in food/energy and strategic domestic productive capacity, didn’t tax/regulate abusive market power, has a corrupt political system dominated by a single family, and when it was backed into a corner after the pandemic, it doubled down on bad economic decision by claiming that agricultural fertilizers are unhealthy (when they really didn’t have the foreign exchange reserves to pay for the imports), so they destroyed agricultural output, especially rice, in the middle of global food crisis. If the Sri Lankan government was serious about investing in healthy food or a healthy economy, it would have put forward an actual food sovereignty strategy centered on native seeds, it would have discouraged intensive monoculture farming, it would have invested in regenerative farming to undo decades of damage to the soil, and it would have supported farmers to increase yields with well defined medium and long term strategies. Clearly, this “organic farming” experiment was sloppy at best, but it should not overshadow the fact that the roots of the agricultural vulnerability have been decades in the making.
Here is how it all started. Sri Lanka, like many countries in the Global South, began the corporatization of its economy in 1977, and adopted a classic IMF-style economic development model based on exports, foreign direct investment (FDI), tourism, and remittances. This development model remained tamed during the civil war (1983-2009), but it was fully unleashed in 2009, and that is when external debt began to skyrocket, going from $16 billion in 2008 to nearly $56 billion in 2019. The value of the Sri Lankan rupee dropped from 114 to 178 LCU/USD. Thanks to a massive increase in government subsidies and transfers reaching more than 30 percent of government spending in recent years, Sri Lanka struggled to keep inflation below 5 percent. Yet, economists celebrated Sri Lanka’s great achievements with an average growth rate exceeding 5 percent in the decade after the civil war, and a real per capita GDP growth putting the country officially in the upper middle-income economy category. Sri Lanka was following the mainstream economic development model like a good student. In the decade starting in 2009, exports grew from $9.3 to $19.1 billion, tourism quintupled from 0.5 to 2.5 million visitors annually, FDI inflows quadrupled by 2018 to a record $1.6 billion, and remittances doubled to nearly $7 billion annually. These are the four engines of Sri Lanks’s economic growth, but they are also the engines driving the country deeper into the structural traps of food and energy dependency, and specialization in low value added exports.
Here is how these engines constitute a trap. An increase in tourism induces more food and energy imports. An increase in remittances means more brain drain. An increase in low value-added exports induces more imports of capital, intermediate goods, fuel etc.; and an increase in low value-added FDI does the same plus the repatriation of profits out of Sri Lanka. On a global scale, these neocolonial economic traps have suctioned $152 trillion from the Global South since 1960.
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a lot of great things have happened. below 4% unemployment for the longest stretch since the 60's, 4.9% growth, manufacturing boom, medicare negotiated drug prices, infrastructure investment for the first time in decades, best inflation response in the G7, insulin capped at 35 bucks, near record stock market, most pro worker NLRB in recent memory, largest drop in homicides after it jumped up massively under Trump, all time record oil production etc
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@frpgplayer This is wrong. the 3 sectors of the economy (private sector, public sector and foreign sector) can't all be in surplus at the same time. The only way for the private sector to run a surplus (which it needs to do to stay out of recession) is to draw that surplus from one of the other sectors. And since it can't draw the surplus from the foreign sector because of our trade deficit, it must draw it from the government. So until we get rid of our trade deficit (which can't happen unless the US loses it's reserve currency status) the private sector will rely on government deficits to stay afloat and calling for a "balanced budget" is basically calling for a recession. This is why every depression in US history came after a period of deficit reduction
And no, more money doesn't need to be taken from the public to pay the interest of the debt. The government pays this interest by rolling over the debt, taxes do not pay for this. The fed rolled over 120 TRILLION dollars worth of debt in 2021 alone. Also, there's no rule that says deficits must equal borrowing. The government could run deficits without selling bonds, since bonds don't finance government spending. Bonds were sold to control the interest rate, not to fund the government. But since 2008, the fed has paid interest directly on reserves, making bond sales (borrowing) no longer necessary.
Countries can indeed go bankrupt, but only if they borrow in someone else's currency. Every country you can name that has ever gone bankrupt in a fiat system did so because they raked up too much foreign currency debt. But you can never go bankrupt in your own currency. Just ask Japan, who are perfectly fine after raking up a debt to gdp ratio of 250%
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@Chris-pq3wp No, when you owe in your own currency, you have the power to overrule any unwanted move in your interest rate. Greece saw it's interest rates explode because it owed in a currency it did not control, the Euro. The UK didn't lose control of their interest rate, that was just the market betting on what the central bank would do. The currency depreciated so rapidly it led markets to speculate it would force an independent UK central bank to raise rates to prevent cost of living crisis getting worse, and they did.
Whoever controls the currency the debt is in, controls the interest rate. Draghi controlled the Euro, so he was able to bring rates down for Euro zone countries with his famous "whatever it takes" declaration. Japan controls their own currency, and thats why the market has failed miserably to move their interest rate higher, even as they raked up the largest debt to gdp ratio in the world at 250%. The US controls their currency, which is why rates remained stable at 2% or lower after 2008, even though the financial crisis started in their country
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@shchorss like how you ignored my question. Are house reps the only ones who represent their people, just because they have “rep” in the name? Senators should be allotted proportionally to population because a more populaous state should be more represented on the national level than a less populated state. Wyoming shouldn’t have as much representation as California in the senate when California has 80x the population. It works that way for house reps and for electoral college electors, should be the same for senators. And the fact that it’s not gives repubs an advantage, which is my original point
In general, republicans gerrymander more than dems because a bunch of dem states have indipendant commissions drawing their districts. California, Hawaii, Colorado, New Jersey Washington, Michigan, Arizona, and Virginia all have non partisan bodies drawing their districts. Whereas pretty much every red state draws their own maps and gerrymanders to high hell. But I think dems are on the verge of passing an anti gerrymander law soon, which I’m sure you’ll welcome 😉
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How are they speaking rationally? I wouldn't say republicans support the 1st amendment, they're clamping down on the right to protest. Shielding people who run over protesters for example, or making protesters guilty by association. And desantis defunded a sports teams training facility because of a tweet they posted that he didn't like. That isn't very free speech of him. As far as the second amendment goes, they're just calling for common sense gun control in response to all of these mass shootings
What economic plans? The only economic plans republicans have are austerity and trickle down economics, both of which are terrible for growth and only further drive wealth inequality. It's the reason most of the wealth in the country is owned by a few families while the rest of us live paycheck to paycheck. Check out a book called the defecit myth. And as far as the green dew deal goes that's one suggestion designed to do something about our rapidly warming planet, a planet you'll inherit, in a way that is practical and sustainable. You don't care? Already harvests are failing and rivers are drying up. The Mississippi river is so low right now that it may not be able to support cargo transportation, what do you think that will do inflation? Warming and cooling happened in the past sure, but that was the natural cycle, our introduction of millions of tonnes of Co2 has thrown that natural cycle out of whack, this is no longer deniable, it's a matter of scientific fact. And denying global warming is the opposite of talking rationally, which is something you said democrats are not doing.
Whether or not you'll be able to afford a house will likely depend on housing supply where you live. America has a ridiculous housing shortage, and it has a lot to do with zoning laws that only permit single family housing. Democrats are the only ones pushing to relax these zoning laws so we can use our land more efficiently. In fact, desantis recently sent a letter to a city in florida telling them not to relax their zoning laws.
As far a studen loans go, i think you're the one that doesn't understand how little it will affect our economy. The cost of the forgiveness barely registered a blip in an economy as large as ours. It would have tremendous upside tho, as all these peoplpe will no longer be crushed by these loans.
I don't think republicans promote unity anymore than the demcrats do, but they certainly a bigger game about patriotism, but for the most part that's all it is. Talk. These guys voted against getting help to sick veterans who got sick fighting in wars they voted for. Just the other night almost everyone of them voted against 7 lousy sick days out of the whole years for rail workers on whome we rely on so much, while every democrat voted for the sick leave. America first tho, amaright?
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@america6498 over 250 of them voted against it, there wasn't really a distinction between the old guard and the new guard in how they voted for the sick days for rail workers, And there wasn't much of one either on how the voted on the help for veterans, as Rand Paul and Ted Cruz were among those who voted no. What did you like about Trump's economic policies? His only major bill was a massive tax giveaway to large corporations and the 1% More failed trickle down economics. It had virtually no effect on employment. And as far as bringing back manufacturing jobs, Biden's Chips and IRA bills are doing that in large numbers, wanting to bring back manufacturing is not an exclusively republican aim. The globalization that led to those jobs being off-shored in the first place has largely been driven by the free markets republicans want to control everything, why pay american workers a decent wage when you can use slave labor abroad?
We were still importing millions of barrels a day from places like Canada, even at the highest of our oil production under Trump. That's because oil is a global commodity traded on global markets, so just because oil companies drill here doesn't mean they need to sell here. They sell where they can make the most profit. As for domestic oil production, Biden is producing about a 1,000,000 barrels a day more than Trump was when Biden took office.
trade deficits are not inherently good or bad, and Trump constantly treating the trade balance like a scorecard is what led to disastrous policies like the trade war with China. In fact if you're looking at trade in terms of winners and losers, it could easily be said that the nation with the trade deficit is the winner since it's receiving billions more in real goods than it's giving away.
Trump's unemployment numbers were simply following the trends set in the previous administration. It had very little do with Trumps incomplete border wall, considering the amount of wall put up where there wasn't already a barrier is pretty tiny. By far the biggest cause of illegal immigration is people overstaying their visas, which republicans don't seem to care at all about.
what matter when it comes to trapping more heat in the earths atmosphere is the total amount of carbon put into it. When looking at the cumulative emissions of c02 to date, china is responsible for about 12.7% Compare that to Europe's 22% and The US's 25% Yes China has the largest emissions right now, but The developed world is actually more responsible for this than anyone else. Each Chinese citizen contributes about half of that of an American, it just so happens there's a lot more of them. And moving towards renewable energy is good for energy independence too, as i said before, oil is a global commodity so we will continue to be beholden to volatile global markets for as long as we depend on oil. You can never be truly energy independent when relying on oil. You don't care about global warming now, but you will when your meat prices go through the roof due to farmers going out of business, as is happening right now in texas. You can't care about inflation without caring about global warming. Yeah batteries currently are quite dirty to produce, but there are new technologies being developed every year like Sodium ion batteries, gravity batteries, and liquid air batteries that can change that. And we can limit demand for electric vehicles by building good transit systems.
Most wealth is inherited, so you absolutely don't need to be smart or determined to be super rich. You think it's healthy to live in a country where almost all the wealth is controlled by a handful of families? No one is asking for perfect wealth equality, but CEO's making 300 times what their employees make? Oligarchy is bad for all of us. And no one really takes gender studies anymore, the recession of 2008 and caused young people to only pursue degrees they think will make them the most money. You're one of the 60% who believe anyone can make it if they work hard enough, but that simply hasn't been the case in real life for a long time. The rich get richer, and bribe politicians to continue making them richer at the expense of all of us. Hence the trickle down economics scams republicans love. Most Americans cant afford a surprise bill of 500 bucks, a lot of them are probably in that 60% too.
Republicans promote unity how exactly? A good chunk of them believe democrats worship satan and call them demonic all the time. And Tucker carlson is constantly promoting the great replacement theory. I'm not sure what you mean by anti male propaganda, i've also never seen ant straight propaganda. Content moderation and censorship ins't really the same thing, if someone is spreading hat speech or promting disinformation, they will likely be removed as platforms try to shield themselves from liability and advertiser loss. Elon was supposed to be a free speech absolutist and yet he banned Kanye for praising hitler. As far as cancel culture, that's just a cultural thing where people boycott certain individuals, it's not the same as republicans clamping down on the right to protest
We need to address the housing shortage in this country, but blocking new housing is just another way the super rich keep themselves rich at our expense. They want zoning laws as strict as possible because more housing would hurt their property values. As a conservative you should hate how inefficiently land is used in america, single family zoning is a huge waste of space and a big reason why most american cities are on the edge of bankruptcy.
I agree about America first too, but we differ on what it means to be America first. To me America first is passing good bills that raise living standards and quality of life, stuff like sick and family leave, a higher minimum wage. caps on the price of certain life saving drugs. The child tax credit lifted half of the poor kids in the country out of poverty when it was still up. What's more America first than making sure American kids don't go hungry?
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@tlo6722 that's not true at all, inflation has almost entirely been driven by the disruption of global supply chains, the war in Europe, abuse of market power and the housing shortage. And no, the spending was not at all unnecessary, economists say we were only able to avoid a painful double dip recession because of that spending.
The democrats solution to these problems are a lot better than the republican solution of taking people's social security and giving billionaires more tax cuts. Democrats are more willing to call out and go after abuse of market power and they're already working on easing the housing shortage by relaxing zoning laws (a remedy desantis is actively fighting)
Lol, Putin wouldn't have invaded Ukraine if Trump were in, ok buddy. There are plenty of metrics we are better off than under Trump, Unemployment isn't double digits, manufacturing is coming back to America, our infrastructure is being revitalized (remember trump's never ending infrastructure week 😅) Medicare negotiated drug prices and student loan reform, restored American dominance in the vital semi conductor industry etc
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@justforever96 Yes, theres no reason to stop spending more than we take in. In fact, the private sector needs the government to spend more than it taxes, because government deficits are the only way for the private sector to receive net financial assets. You stop running deficits and the private sector will compete for a fewer supply of dollars until something breaks and we get a recession/depression. This is why every depression in US history has occurred after a period of deficit reduction.
By "balancing the budget" and taxing back exactly as much as you spend, you're not getting rid of the deficit. You're just pushing it onto the private sector. This is because Governmen deficit = private sector surplus. The private sector and the government can't both be in surplus. The economy is at its healthiest when the government shoulders the deficit, because it is the currency issuer and unlike the private sector, can sustain longterm deficits.
Sure bonds are government "debt", but they come from the same printer as dollars do, and they are perfectly interchangeable. They start off as dollars, and when the government settles the bond debt, it simply convers it back into dollars. Its not difficult at all to do.
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@Nuganics Where do you get this idea that "not many want their debt?" They are having no issues selling bonds. Regardless, monetarily sovereign currency issuers don't need people to buy their bonds. Selling bonds are not done to finance government spending, they are done to regulate interest rates. And yes, the Japanese buy back massive sums of their own debt, this shouldn't even be possible without massive inflation according to your framework. And this buying back of large sums of debt is a new policy régime, it doesn't explain why they didn't succumb to hyper inflation a lot sooner. Japan are the 3rd richest country in the world lol, they're not proof that printing doesn't lead to prosperity at all. Sure they've been stagnating recently, but that is due to a combination of an aging population, and their instance on consumption taxes. The most prosperous time in America was right after world war 2 when our debt to gdp ratio was at it's highest.
No one is saying any of these countries "should do it forever", obviously. We're saying printing is not inherently bad or inflationary. In fact, it's ideal as the private sector relies on government deficits. It's no coincidence we've fallen into a recession or depression every time we've tried to balance budgets in our history. As long as you don't spend beyond they productive capacity of your economy, you're perfectly fine. Weimar was not monetarily sovereign, and they just had their country destroyed by war. They were forced to take up debt i currencies they didn't control, that isn't the case for the US.
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@ssr6036 none of their nonsense was actually verified and it was all easily debunked
CLAIM: 23,344 mail-in ballots voted from a prior address.
BOTTOM LINE: Cyber Ninjas still don’t understand this is legal under federal election law. To label it a “critical” concern is either intentionally misleading or staggeringly ignorant. AZ senators should know this too.
EXPLANATION:
1) Military and overseas voters can cast a “federal only ballot” despite living outside the U.S. The address tied to their ballot would be their prior address in AZ.
2) People are allowed to move from one house to another (or even one state to another) in October and November of an election year (yes, shocking!). If the driver’s license address matches the voter registration address, they are still allowed to vote.
3) For the November General Election Maricopa County had 20,933 one-time temporary address requests. In addition, snowbirds and college students tend to have forwarding addresses when they are out of the county.
4) Mail-in ballots are not forwarded to another address.
CLAIM: 10,342 potential voters that voted in multiple counties
BOTTOM LINE: There are more than 7 million people in Arizona and, yes, some of them share names & birth years. To identify this as a critical issue is laughable.
EXPLANATION: 10,000+ votes in multiple counties is unlikely.
More likely: different people, same name. Example: if you search for Maria Garcia born in 1980, you’ll get 7 active voters in Maricopa County and 12 statewide. And that’s just one name.
If Cyber Ninjas understood data analysis, they would have performed standard processes to rule out situations that lead to faulty conclusions.
CLAIM: 9,041 more ballots returned by voters than received
BOTTOM LINE: This suggests a lack of understanding about how EV 33 files work. It’s not unusual for more ballots to be returned by voters than received.
EXPLANATION: The majority of these involve cases where voters returned a ballot without a signature or with a signature discrepancy. In those cases, election staff contact the voter to ensure their vote counts.
The most common reasons for a single voter having multiple entries in the EV 33 file are:
• a voter sent back an envelope unsigned
• there’s a signature discrepancy
A record for the original ballot is entered into the EV 33 file (where we track returned ballots). A second entry is recorded when a ballot envelope is signed or the signature discrepancy is resolved.
The appropriate conclusion to draw from this finding is that the early voting team was performing their statutory-required responsibility by reviewing signatures on all returned mail-in ballots.
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1) Weimar is not comparable to the US. They had their productive capacity destroyed by the war, and they were forced to take up debt in foreign currencies to pay off the harsh reparations they had to pay to the winners of the war. Our productive capacity has not been shot to hell by a war, and we do not have any debt in anyone else's currency.
2) Yellen didn't go to China or Japan to beg them to buy our bonds. Its completely irrelevant to us whether they keep or dump our bonds. If they want to no longer receive the interest payments that come with our bonds, that;s no skin off our back. Indeed, China dumped 15% of our bonds in 2016 and it had no affect on us at all, our interest rates were unchanged.
3) It doesn't matter if the dollar is no the reserve currency, plenty of country's, who do not have the reserve currency, operate this way. When a country is monetarily sovereign, like The US, China, Japan, Canada etc, it does not need outside financing and can never lose control of it's interest rates. No one would switch to a currency that is backed by gold, because pegging your currency to a commodity is incredibly foolish and would massively limit a country's ability to conduct fiscal policy of any kind. Not to mention you'd be forced to maintain sky high interest rates to keep the flow of gold coming into your country, this would have disastrous consequences for your economy's domestic spending and investment. This would in turn lead to frequent depression and collapse. There's a reason literally no country on earth still pegs to gold.
4) The kids of the future won't have a de-valued dollar, because currency devaluation would happen if the government consistently spent beyond the productive capacity of the economy. No one is calling for that, this lady is calling for the opposite. Let's worry about real resources and productive capacity before we spend, not "the deficit".
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@blksbth1 For you to say the stage is set for tremendous fraud you need evidence that the system is not secure, you’d need precedent. Something that happened to indicated the system is susceptible to fraud. As I’ve said, Texas already has some of the strictest voting laws in the country, so for the rules to get stricter you would need something to have happened. Anything. In other words you would need the “cocaine” in your analogy to actually exist in some form. But it doesn’t. A better analogy would be someone hammering wooden planks into their safe. It’s needless unless the safe is flawed
In which regards do blue states have stricter laws?
Voter suppression is not only more prevalent than voter fraud, but also has a much longer history. But these laws have gone on steroids since the Supreme Court gutted the voting rights act. Voter suppression is very easily spotted, unlike fraud which is virtually non existent. Closing polling places and reducing voting hours for example, is voter suppression
And tell me how reducing voting hours and location or getting rid of Sunday voting or reducing the time you can apply for an absentee ballots in any way harms the security or integrity of an election.
Hilary said Russians interfered with the 2016 election wich turned out to be true. As a result they created a whole new branch of the US government designed to make sure it didn’t happen again, and it also made sure almost every virtual vote in the 2020 election had a paper ballot to go with it. So there was a claim, there was proof, and something was done about it. Great. Trump on the other hand called foul with 0 evidence. Nada. In fact his own lawyers wouldn’t even allege fraud in court. that alone shouldn’t be enough to pass laws that could suppress the vote, especially when those laws have nothing to do with security. It’s incredibly dangerous to craft policy based on unsubstantiated claims.
No actually that’s exactly what I’m arguing, these provisions are being passed simply to make it less convenient to vote. They’ll cause longer lines and a much more difficult time voting. Simply because they know republicans don’t win when turn out is high. Pretty despicable in all honesty.
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@mvttx9851 I'm not saying we're fine just because it hasn't happened before, i'm saying we're fine because i actually understand monetary operations. Predictions are only as good as the model you use for them, and doom preachers are using an outdated gold standard era model. They can't even imagine a reality in which taxes do not pay for government spending, or that borrowing is optional, and yet that is exactly the reality we live in. Taxes do not pay for anything the government does, they're debited out of existence upon payment. As such, they will never struggle to pay for the interest on the debt, not matter how high or low tax revenue is. Fun fact, they paid for 120 TRILLION dollars worth of interest in 2021 alone. It was easy, and the world didn't end.
Doom preachers also assume the national debt must rise indefinitely, this is also wrong. The government doesn't need to sell bonds every time it deficit spends, it can always go back to simply allowing the treasury to run an overdraft with the fed. Just like that, no more bed wetting about increases to the debt.
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@morgandragon5581 First of all its debateable that the middle clsas is shrinking, The middle class became the richest ever (net worth) in 2022 and is far richer than 2019 now. As of Q4 '23, bottom 50% group net worth (real) up 53% vs. pre-pandemic, while 50th-90th group up 17%. But even if they were shrinking, government spending wouldn't be why. Government spending helps growth. Cutting back on spending is actually what would be hurting the middle class, since every downturn in US history (except covid) happened after a period of deficit reduction. Government spending isn't inherently inflationary, in fact If you compare budget deficits % GDP and inflation vs. year ago (1948-2023), there is a small negative relationship. Inequality is a problem, but thats thanks to a tax code that favors the rich, as well as falling union memberships, not spending.
The interest on the national debt is not paid for by taxes, it's paid for by rolling over the debt. The interest payments aren't hurting anyone, and they are not difficult to pay. They rolled over 120 TRILLION dollars worth of debt in 2021 alone. But if you're so bothered by it, then you should be calling for the government to stop selling bonds and adding to the national debt. There's no rule that says we need to sell bonds every time we engage in deficit spending
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@TerryVogelaar Historically, when the government spent more money than it received in taxes, it would sell bonds equivalent to the difference between those two numbers. So if it spent a $100 but only taxed $90, it would sell $10 of bonds. Those $10 of bonds would be added to the national debt and interest would be paid on it. But the government didn't sell bonds because it needed financing, it sold bonds as a way to control interest rates.
However, today the government doesn't need to sell bonds to control interest rates, it just declares a desired rate, and that becomes the new interest rate making the whole process of selling bonds unnecessary
They renegotiate the debt ceiling because of a very old law. The debt ceiling is completely dumb and unnecessary, they could get rid of it tomorrow like Australia did a while back and nothing would happen. It's a political problem that only crops up when government is divided
The federal reserve is the nations central bank and an arm of the government. They were created by, get their authority from, and answer to the government. Yes, the individual reserve banks act as private banks, but the entity within the fed that actually controls fiscal and monetary policy is the FOMC, which is a government organization. The FOMC is made up of the board of governors (All are appointed by the president and confirmed by congress) and the presidents of the individual reserve banks (which are appointed by the board of governors)
No, they are not the richest because they ignore the consequences of borrowing, in fact they don't actually "borrow" from anyone. The term "borrowing" is used to describe the process of selling bonds, which was done to control interest rates not finance government like i mentioned earlier. They're the richest because they generate the most gdp
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@BoeJlden Dude, the gov't debt is not a loan 😅 it's just money that is currently held in the form of US tresuries. The government cant go bankrupt because as the currency issuer, They can always afford to turn those yellow dollars (us tresuries) back into green dollars (reserves). Saying the government will run out of their own currency is like saying a scoreboard in a basketball game might run out of points. Its ridiculous.
Yes, Germany had to pay harsh reparation on top of having their productive capxott destroyed after losing the war, this forced them to borrow in foreign currencies. Foreign currencies. Meaning they no longer had control of the money they owed or its interest rate. The US government has ALL its debt in it's own currency, so it controls the currency it owes.
It's not simply creating new money that devalues the dollar, its creating new money when there is no productive capacity or real resources available in the economy to absorb that spending. Look st rhe years directly after ww2, America created tones of new money fighting the war so the debt to GDP ratio was at its highest after the war, yet that was when America was at it's most prosperous and there was no accelerated inflation.
Or look at japan today, they've been running massive deficits for decades and their current debt to GDP ratio is the largest in the worlds with their debt being over twice the size of their whole economy, according to you they should be bankrupt. They should have default on their debt by now. They should have lost control of their intrest rates. They should be dealing with massive inflation. Yet none of that has happened. How do you explain that?
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@BoeJlden the government will always be able to pay the interest on its bonds. That is the only thing they pay for in regard to the national "debt". And you're describing hyper inflation, the country isnt there at all lol. If you think this is hyperinflation then you dont know what that is. And shes not saying to spend unlimited amounts of money, she sysing the opposite. Make sure you focus on inflation risk before you spend.
Germany went bankrupt because their productive capacity was slashed by the war and the harsh reparations they had to pay for losing it, which forced them to take up debt in foreign currencies. We already established this
Yes it doesnt control the value, that's why shes saying the gov should focus on inflation risk before it spends rather than worrying about the "debt". Currency isnt like diamonds. Whether inflation arises from new money supply depends on the real resources available in the economy as well as its productive capacity. If there is adequate productive capacity and real resources available, the economy will absorb the new spending
Exactly, America creates a tone of productive capacity, so the economy was able to absorb all the spending they did to fight the war, that's my point. New money isnt Inhernerly inflationary, it's all about the productive capacity.
The stimulus spending was necessary because of the economic collapse due to the pandemic. We were dealing with one if the biggest collapses in our history. And no it has not made us bankrupt lol how on earth are we bankrupt right now?
Japan isn't bankrupt either, sure they've been dealing with periods of stagnation and recession, but that isnt because of their spending as they havnt had inflation problems nor have they lost control of their interest rates (unlike countries that actually went bankrupt like Venezuela and greece/italy a few years ago) they've been dealing with periods of stagnation because the government keeps installing large consumption taxes
"Borrowing money doesnt cause problem like printing money does"
What're you talking about? Do you think all the pandemic spending was printed? The government doesnt actually print the money when it spends most of the time dude, the currency is digitally minted at the fed. It is sent to the relevant bank accounts after a few clicks of a keyboard
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@philw3039 Taxes do destroy money, but they do not have to be in proportion to the deficit. In fact that hasn't been the case for most of US history, and we have yet to see that many instances of high inflation, let alone hyperinflation. There is nothing inherently wrong with running a deficit, it can even be seen as the ideal or natural budget scenario, especially if you happen to be running a trade deficit too. Since a nation with a trade deficit cannot run a government surplus without plunging the private sector into recession.
Selling bonds aren't an alternative to directly printing, they happen in conjunction with printing. They spend the money and then sell bonds equivalent to the deficit, this has historically been a way to drain the banks of excess reserves in order to control the overnight interest rate. But since the fed has been paying interest directly on reserves since 2008, they don't need to sell bonds to control interest rates anymore, making bond sales no longer necessary
Yes, the government pays the interest by creating more bonds. They covered 120 TRILLION dollars worth of maturing bonds in 2021 alone that way, no hyperinflation in sight. And it's not like they could be using tax revenue to make these payments, since the government doesn't actually use federal taxes to fund anything. Their really isn't such a thing as "revenue" to the federal government. When federal taxes are paid, they are simply deleted. Tax money doesn't add anything to the governments budget, since it is the source of all dollars, including the dollars you used to pay taxes. Like you said, taxes are a way of destroying money, not of financing the government
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@yerri5567 no, i didn't say receive because the government doesn't pay taxes to itself, people do. Once people receive that interest income, they'll use it to pay taxes.
Yes, you're describing debt in the traditional sense, and that's different from the national debt. The government borrows only from itself, it doesn't need the faith or financing of outside entities. Our stockpile of US treasuries, what you call debt, is just a different kind of dollar that the government issues. Dollars and bonds come from the same printer and are perfectly interchangeable. They exist in a harmless closed loop, when the government goes into "debt" they just turn dollars into bonds, and when they pay it off, they simply turn those bonds back into dollars
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@jerrywhidby. Republicans certainly do want to take our social security and raise the retirement age to 70, it's right there in McCarthy's "contract with america".
You clearly have very little understanding of economics or government spending. You probably think the national debt is like your private debt. That isn't true at all, the government debt is simply a record of all the money that has ever bee spent into the economy that hasn't been taxed out, and the active portion of it exists in the form of US Treasuries. And current inflation is not due to a devaluation of our currency, it is being driven mostly by inflationary pressures in specific sectors, factors related to global supply chains as well as abuse of market power by price setter. The main driver of core inflation right now is rents, and that's due to decades of anemic housing production. Look around, inflation is global, and due primarily to global factors.
Democrats had the house since 2018, yet inflation didn't start accelerating until 2021, i wonder what changed.
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We don't "let" the government borrow, and "borrowing" isn't even what the government does. The money used to purchase government bonds comes from the government itself. Increases to the US treasury stockpile are exactly equal to the government's deficit spending. Also, The national debt is just a stockpile of government IOU's, just like the dollar. Only difference is one has no interest rate and the other does. They both come from the same printer and paying for the debt is as simple as converting one of those government IOU's into another. Also, the interest bearing IOU's ("debt") make up the assets and savings of the private sector, so eliminating it would not be a good thing
Finally, the earnings of the unborn are not affected in anyway. Taxes do not pay for debt interest. The debt is rolled over, in other words the government prints new bonds and exchanges them for new dollars. They rolled over 120,000,000,000,000 dollars worth of bonds in 2021 alone. Check the fed balance sheet. The idea that future taxes would ever cover that amount is nonsense.
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@177SCmaro Did you even read my comment? About what the purpose of federal taxation is? The federal government doesn't need to produce anything of value, they have monopoly control over the US dollar, they create new money whenever they feel like. Like i said, the money we use to pay taxes had to first come from the government, so it makes no sense to say taxes serve a financing purpose for the federal government.
And the government doesn't need to borrow its own money from anyone else in order to spend, what we call government borrowing is just the process of selling US treasuries, which were done historically to control interest rates, not to finance the government. The government doesn't need to regulate interest rates by selling bonds anymore, today they just declare an interest rate and that becomes the new rate. So the government could literally deficit spend without adding to the national debt if it wanted to.
And the international theft thing ties into the nature of government spending. You hold the mistaken view that federal taxes are spent by the government, when they are in fact simply deleted at the IRS. You cannot steal something from future generations that is funded by public money. that is, money digitally minted out of thin air
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@Dangic23 you clearly dont know what central banks do. Countries have a central bank that acts on behalf of the government as a monopoly supplier of the currency. That backstop reassures investors, who understand that the central bank has ironclad control over its short-term interest rate, along with substantial influence over rates on longer-dated securities.
Just look at Japan. At 240 percent, Japan’s debt-to-GDP ratio is the highest in the developed world. At the end of September 2019, Japan’s national debt hit a record ¥1,335,500 billion. Despite this debt, Japan is fine, just like the US because it’s a currency-issuing government with a central bank that can clear every payment obligation. Financial markets can’t push Japan into crisis because the Bank of Japan (BOJ) can override any unwanted move in interest rates. the government can always strip markets of any influence over the interest rate on government bonds just like Federal Reserve did during and immediately after World War II, and it’s what the Bank of Japan is doing today.
To keep a lid on interest rates during World War II, the Federal Reserve “formally committed to maintaining a low-interest-rate peg of 3/8 percent on short-term Treasury bills” and “also implicitly capped the rate on long-term Treasury bonds at 2.5 percent.” Even as deficits exploded and the national debt climbed from $79 billion in 1942 to $260 billion by the time the war ended in 1945, the federal government paid just 2.5 percent interest on long-term bonds. Even after the war ended, the Fed continued to anchor the long-term interest rate on behalf of the government. Their job is to achieve the governments goal of price stability and full employment
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@solarchos4352 Yes, real gdp has nothing to do with inflation because it is inflation adjusted. But nominal gdp absolutely is influenced by inflation, so i don't know what you're talking about.
The national debt IS an asset to the private sector, its why government bonds are purchased in the first place. It represents the savings of the non-government. It's an asset to our banks, businesses, investors and pension funds. No, the national debt has no bearing on interest rates, which is why our current rates are significantly lower than they were in the 80's despite our national debt being orders of magnitude larger than it was back then. It's also why our next interest rate move will be lower, despite our national debt never being higher
Also, national credit ratings means nothing when you borrow in your own currency, this is why US interest rates have been completely unaffected by every recent credit rating reduction. Same with Japan, who have a debt to gdp ratio over 250% while maintaining interest rates near 0.
Oh and the fed paid off 24 Trillion dollars worth of interest in 2021 alone, it faces 0 risk of defaulting on interest payments since it makes the currency
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@solarchos4352 Yes, real gdp has nothing to do with inflation because it is inflation adjusted. But nominal gdp absolutely is influenced by inflation, so i don't know what you're talking about. The national debt is an asset to the private sector, its why government bonds are purchased in the first place. It represents the savings of the non-government. It's an asset to our banks, businesses, investors and pension funds. No, the national debt has no bearing on interest rates, which is why our current rates are significantly lower than they were in the 80's despite our national debt being orders of magnitude larger than it was back then. It's also why our next interest rate move will be lower, despite our national debt never being higher Also, national credit ratings means nothing when you borrow in your own currency, this is why US interest rates have been completely unaffected by every recent credit rating reduction. Same with Japan, who have a debt to gdp ratio over 250% while maintaining interest rates near 0. Oh and the fed paid off 24 Trillion dollars worth of interest in 2021 alone, it faces 0 risk of defaulting on interest payments since it makes the currency
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Yes, real gdp has nothing to do with inflation because it is inflation adjusted. But nominal gdp absolutely is influenced by inflation, so i don't know what you're talking about. The national debt is an asset to the private sector, its why government bonds are purchased in the first place. It represents the savings of the non-government. It's an asset to our banks, businesses, investors and pension funds. No, the national debt has no bearing on interest rates, which is why our current rates are significantly lower than they were in the 80's despite our national debt being orders of magnitude larger than it was back then. It's also why our next interest rate move will be lower, despite our national debt never being higher Also, national credit ratings means nothing when you borrow in your own currency, this is why US interest rates have been completely unaffected by every recent credit rating reduction. Same with Japan, who have a debt to gdp ratio over 250% while maintaining interest rates near 0. Oh and the fed paid off 24 Trillion dollars worth of interest in 2021 alone, it faces 0 risk of defaulting on interest payments since it makes the currency
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Historically, the government sold bonds, not because it needed funding, but because it wanted to drain excess reserves from the banks as a way of indirectly controlling interest rates. But the fed doesn't need to control interest rates indirectly anymore, now it just declares what its going to pay in interest, and that becomes the interest rate. So selling bonds isn't even necessary anymore
She didn't say inflation was a byproduct of printing money, she said inflation was a byproduct of printing "too much" money. For most people, they consider it "too much" when the government spends more than it collects in taxes. But she's saying that isn't actually the case, the government only engages in "too much" spending when inflation results from it. In other words shes saying the only evidence of overspending is inflation, not deficits.
As long as the government doesn't print beyond the productive capacity of the economy, there will be no resulting inflation. So we should focus on real resources and productive capacity before we spend, not whether or not it will add to the deficit. The government will always have the money, the only real limit on their spending is real resources and spare capacity
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Wrong. Printing money doesn't inherently devalue the currency, only printing beyond your economy's productive capacity devalues your currency. As long as the government doesn't print so much that it competes with the private sector and bids up prices, devaluation won't happen. Also bonds are not sold in order to gain capitol for the government, they were sold historically to drain the banks of excess reserves in order to control interest rates. But they've been paying interest directly on reserves since 2008, so bond sales no longer affect interest rates, making them no longer necessary. The government can continue to spend without selling bonds or adding to the national debt. If they do continue to sell bonds, they can set interest rates wherever they please.
And the government should not "balance its books" like a business because the government is fundamentally different from a business. It is a currency issuer, not a user like us or any business. Government deficits are equal to private sector surpluses, so if the government were to "balance it's books", that would mean the private sector would be unable to balance it's books, plunging us into a recession.
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@drjonesey5 just google it, there are many complications. From saying he didn’t know about the hush payments to stormy Daniels, to claiming he got veterans choice passed, to saying he won the popular vote in 2016 to claiming the military had no bullets when he became president, to saying the national archives labeled the constitution dangerous, to saying he accomplished more in his first 2 years than any president in history, to claiming he signed the most legislation of any president in the first year of their presidency (he actually signed the fewest bills of any president in their first year since ww2) saying he had the largest inaugural audience ever, saying he gave the largest tax cut in history, saying he won Georgia by hundreds of thousands of votes (and don’t say but muh fraud) saying he was totally exonerated by the mueller report, saying he brought back big 10 football, saying he was named man of the year in Michigan etc
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@ace9840 Taking bonds and exchanging them for dollars isn't inflationary, it's just an asset swap. It's like moving money between your savings account and your check in account. As for the interest, that is paid by rolling over the bonds. They simply create new bonds to pay the interest on old bonds. This process is not inflationary, they rolled over 120,000,000,000,000 worth of bonds in 2021 alone, inflation has only fallen since then.
Yes, there has been many fiat regimes that have failed in the past, just like there has been gold based monetary systems that have failed. But the difference between this fiat system and pervious ones is that the US has a floating exchange rate, and has all of its debt in its own currency. No fiat system has ever failed with those 2 characteristics
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@Fieldson1977 There are plenty of nations economically "tethered" to the US, very few of them can spend as much as Japan has and still stave off inflation while keeping control of their interest rates. No, Japan can spend this way because it is, like the US and a few other nations, monetarily sovereign. This means they have a floating exchange rate and debt denominated entirely in their own currency. When your debt is in your own currency, you can never lose control of your interest rates, and thus your debt will remain sustainable. This is why nations with little monetary sovereignty like Greece saw their interest rates blow up and their economies collapse after the 2008 recession while monterily soverign countries like the US, Japan and Australia saw virtually no chage in their interest rates.
Monetarily sovereign nations can even choose to retire their debt whenever they please. Japan has simply bought out half of its debt in the past 5 years, and it can go all the way if it wants. This is possible because their debt is owed in a unit of account they can never run out of, the yen.
Your economic stability is dependent on your level of monetary sovereignty, not on your level of debt or your debt to gdp ratio. This is why you can have a very small debt to gdp ratio and still default, like Russia did in the late 90's, while countries like Japan can get away with debt twice the size of their whole economy
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@Fieldson1977 I am looking at it in macro terms, pretty much everything I said was addressing macro conditions. Our current path is perfectly sustainable, because like I said, a monterily soverign nation cannot lose control of its interest rates, and thus interest payments will never go above the growth rate of the economy. Taking on new debt itself is optional when you are monetarily soverign. The US could spend without adding to the debt or rising taxes if it wanted to.
What is unsustainable, however, is "balancing the budget". Its virtually impossible to try to balance the budget for an extended period without causing a recession/depression. This is because the private sector relies of government deficits to stay afloat. Government deficits provide the only way for the private sector to receive net financial assets. In other words, government deficits = private sector surpluses. You deprive the private sector of surpluses and it always collapses. This is why every depression in US history has occurred after a period of deficit reduction.
Lol, Venezuela? I've never heard of a single person hold them up as a positive example for anything, least of all democratic socialism. You're probably thinking of Norway. Venezuela are the very definition of a nations with no monetary sovereignty, they had large amounts of debt in currencies they didn't control and did not have food or energy sovereignty. They didn't stand much of a chance when the US put sanctions on their oil. The fact you would even compare such a nation to the US confusing
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1) That is not True, new dollars don't inherently devalue existing dollars. Whether or not the dollar is devalued depends on the productive capacity of the economy. If there is enough productive capacity in the economy, new money will not cause inflation.
2) This is also not true. The federal reserve is the central bank of the government. They answer to, and get their authority from, the government. When congress passes a spending bill, the fed has no choice but to make the payments. Sure, the individual fed banks act like private banks, but the entity that carries out monetary and fiscal spending is the FOMC, and this is a government entity. The FOMC is made up of the board of governors (all of which are appointed by the president) and the presidents of the individual fed banls (which are appointed by the board of governors)
3) This is ridiculous, most money isn't actually "printed", so the idea that you can run out of printing presses makes no sense. When the fed wants to spend, it does so using a computer. They simply mark up the bank accounts of the whoever they want to pay with a keybaord at the fed. It is not difficult at all of the fed to make the interest payments.
4) The dollar doesn't need to be the worlds reserve currency for it to easily sustain it's
"debt". Look at Japan, they've been running massive deficits for decades, and their debt to gdp ratio is currently the highest in the world at over twice the size of their entire economy. They've been able to easily sustain their debt, and have not dealt with inflation or insolvency despite not having the worlds reserve currency
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@glennmandigo6069 massively ramped up the military industrial complex, pardoned war criminals, put US ships in the Taiwan straight way more often than other presidents, routinely threatened nuclear war on Twitter, pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal and then assassinated their top general, threatened to invade Venezuela and launched a regime change operation there, pulled out of the open sky treaty designed to lower tensions, killed many times more civilians with drones than died from US bombs in the gulf War, the Kosovo intervention and the libya war combined, bombed syria and then sent troops to seize it's oil deposits, antagonized our nato allies, is on the record in favor of the Iraq war and is reportedly planning to invade Mexico among other things
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@mayibuye2908 No it isn't. The US doesn't "borrow" what other countries save. It simply decides it wants to spend, and then instructs the fed to spend that money into existence.
Japan, like the U.S, is fine when it comes to debt sustainability because it’s a currency-issuing government with a central bank that can clear every payment obligation that comes due. Neither the fed nor the BOJ can lose control of their interests rates. When you denominate all of your debt in your own currency and have a floating exchange rate, like the US, Japan and Australia do for example, your debt is perfectly sustainable. In fact it isn't even entirely accurate to call it a debt at all.
Just look at what Japan has been doing for the last 3 years. It has been engaged in a policy known as yield curve control. In addition to anchoring the short-term interest rate, the BOJ committed to pinning rates on ten-year government bonds near zero. In carrying out that policy, the BOJ has purchased massive amounts of it's government debt, buying up ¥6.9 trillion in June 2019 alone. As a result, the BOJ now holds roughly 50% of all Japanese government bonds. So half of its debt has already been essentially retired. No inflation or insolvency has resulted, this is the power of a currency issuing nation that only borrows in it's own currency.
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@hycoperosity5843 the fed is part of the government. Its funny how many people think the US government has to beg for money from a private bank. They're a government entity. They were created by the government, get their authority from government, answer to government, have their board of governors appointed by the government, have to turn over all their profits to the government, and only exist to fulfil their dual mandate from the government, full employment + low inflation.
Also, the governments "debt" is our asset. If they were to wipe out the debt, millions of peoples savings and assets would go down the toilet. Both dollars and bonds are just government IOU's, so if you're not mad your grandkids would inherit money, you shouldn't be mad they'll inherit bonds (government debt)
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Sri Lanka’s government ignored its structural weaknesses, didn’t invest in food/energy and strategic domestic productive capacity, didn’t tax/regulate abusive market power, has a corrupt political system dominated by a single family, and when it was backed into a corner after the pandemic, it doubled down on bad economic decision by claiming that agricultural fertilizers are unhealthy (when they really didn’t have the foreign exchange reserves to pay for the imports), so they destroyed agricultural output, especially rice, in the middle of global food crisis. If the Sri Lankan government was serious about investing in healthy food or a healthy economy, it would have put forward an actual food sovereignty strategy centered on native seeds, it would have discouraged intensive monoculture farming, it would have invested in regenerative farming to undo decades of damage to the soil, and it would have supported farmers to increase yields with well defined medium and long term strategies. Clearly, this “organic farming” experiment was sloppy at best, but it should not overshadow the fact that the roots of the agricultural vulnerability have been decades in the making.
Here is how it all started. Sri Lanka, like many countries in the Global South, began the corporatization of its economy in 1977, and adopted a classic IMF-style economic development model based on exports, foreign direct investment (FDI), tourism, and remittances. This development model remained tamed during the civil war (1983-2009), but it was fully unleashed in 2009, and that is when external debt began to skyrocket, going from $16 billion in 2008 to nearly $56 billion in 2019. The value of the Sri Lankan rupee dropped from 114 to 178 LCU/USD. Thanks to a massive increase in government subsidies and transfers reaching more than 30 percent of government spending in recent years, Sri Lanka struggled to keep inflation below 5 percent. Yet, economists celebrated Sri Lanka’s great achievements with an average growth rate exceeding 5 percent in the decade after the civil war, and a real per capita GDP growth putting the country officially in the upper middle-income economy category. Sri Lanka was following the mainstream economic development model like a good student. In the decade starting in 2009, exports grew from $9.3 to $19.1 billion, tourism quintupled from 0.5 to 2.5 million visitors annually, FDI inflows quadrupled by 2018 to a record $1.6 billion, and remittances doubled to nearly $7 billion annually. These are the four engines of Sri Lanks’s economic growth, but they are also the engines driving the country deeper into the structural traps of food and energy dependency, and specialization in low value added exports.
Here is how these engines constitute a trap. An increase in tourism induces more food and energy imports. An increase in remittances means more brain drain. An increase in low value-added exports induces more imports of capital, intermediate goods, fuel etc.; and an increase in low value-added FDI does the same plus the repatriation of profits out of Sri Lanka. On a global scale, these neocolonial economic traps have suctioned $152 trillion from the Global South since 1960.
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@TheRealMjb2k Government surpluses translate directly into private sector deficits. The two are linked. So by generating a government surplus, you're simply pushing the private sector into deficit, and unlike the government the private sector cannot sustain deficits so they ultimately fall into recession. Every depression in US history has occurred after a period of deficit reduction.
Currency operates differently to regular items that have less value the more common it is, with currency it depends on the speed of circulation, if you have adequate productive capacity, the economy will absorb those new dollars, and you'll have no inflation
Printing trillions to pay the interest on US bonds won't cause inflation because only a fraction of interest payments are actually spent and almost all of it that is covers existing obligations. Highly unlikely to cause inflation.
The US will never have a lending problem because it doesn't actually need lenders. It doesn't need to borrow it's own currency from anyone, the process they call "borrowing" is just the selling of US bonds. But they never sold bonds to finance government spending, bonds were only ever sold as a way of indirectly controlling interest rates. And even that is no longer necessary, nowa days they just declare an interest rate and the becomes the new rate, no bond selling needed. So technically the government could deficit spend without adding to the national debt if they wanted to
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@jas0rdie6885 No, because the ability of the government to spend is not based on "global confidence" in the dollar. That's the beauty of borrowing in your own currency. As long as you respect the capacity limits of your economy, and make sure to create demand for your currency through taxation, you'll be fine. The rest of the world can lose faith in the dollar, as they have a long time ago in the japanese yen, and you'd still be safe from default. The government could even stop selling bonds and "borrowing" at anytime and still be perfectly fine
Besides, A gold based system would be far less stable than the dollar, as it is inflexible and quite fragile in the face of any kind of unforeseen shock, as evidenced by the fact we had roughly 4 recessions every decade while on the gold standard and had to leave it a bunch of times. A different fiat currency won't supplant the dollar any time soon, because in order do so, they'd need to run trade deficits as large as those of the US, and most countries are unwilling to do this. But even if the dollar eventually loses its status as the reserve currency, it would still come out in great shape considering it would mean the rest of the world is now running trade deficits against the US. Buying more of our goods than they're selling to us. That something most politicians like trump want.
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@turdferguson7686 Yeah but kicking it to the states will lead deep red states to ban it, and people don't want that, even in red states. Look at the abortion vote in Kansas, and the idea that it was written poorly is a cope in my opinion. Republicans wrote it, if they felt people were on their side on the issue they would've written it more plainly. Some restrictions were popular before roe was overturned, but now the polling on it has changed substantially, people are a lot more apposed to any bans now
And the Lindsay graham ban is definitely a ban. It's a late term abortion ban, but it's still a ban. Only 1% of abortions are late term and they only happen when something is seriously wrong with the baby and it's deemed non viable. There was a story in the news not too long ago where a woman was being forced to give birth to a baby without a skull
Gas is super low now on average, sure it's not where it was during 2020 but it was cheap as dirt during the lockdowns because demand for it collapsed. Oil prices even went negative for a while. These things happen when you rely on global commodities like oi.l As for inflation on other things, it was always going to happen with a global pandemic on this scale. You can't disrupt global supply chains and demand patterns like that without causing inflation, The US is actually well off compared to the rest of the world.
Crime is up pretty much everywhere including republican controlled cities like Jachsonville and Oklahoma city, and even in rural areas. Doesn't mean republicans are responsible. As for homelessness, what are republican solutions to it? The best known ways to reduce homelessness is a housing first approach and looser zoning laws to increase housing supply yet republicans are apposed to both of those solutions. Republicans tend to be all for the complaining part while fiercely apposing any effective solutions
Are illegals really flooding into the southern border? Where are you getting these numbers? Republicans tend to go on and on about the border when a democrat is in office, they even did it with obama even tho his deportation numbers blew most presidents out of the water. And by "letting violent criminals out of jail" i assume you're referring to cash bail reform for non violent offenders? Is that a bad policy? Why should rich people get to hang out at home while the poor sleep in jail after committing the same minor crime?
The Ukraine thing is pretty interesting when it comes to republicans, you claim to be against it because that money could be going to ameircans, but you complain just as hard when money is actually diverted towards Americans. It happened again just the other week, 40 million americans had their lives changed for the better through Biden's student loan relief, and all republicans could do was wail about it for weeks. You'd be hard pressed to find a single dollar going toward americans that republicans haven't complained about. As far as republicans are concerned, any money that isn't going to mega corporations is a tragedy
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Sri Lanka’s government ignored its structural weaknesses, didn’t invest in food/energy and strategic domestic productive capacity, didn’t tax/regulate abusive market power, has a corrupt political system dominated by a single family, and when it was backed into a corner after the pandemic, it doubled down on bad economic decision by claiming that agricultural fertilizers are unhealthy (when they really didn’t have the foreign exchange reserves to pay for the imports), so they destroyed agricultural output, especially rice, in the middle of global food crisis. If the Sri Lankan government was serious about investing in healthy food or a healthy economy, it would have put forward an actual food sovereignty strategy centered on native seeds, it would have discouraged intensive monoculture farming, it would have invested in regenerative farming to undo decades of damage to the soil, and it would have supported farmers to increase yields with well defined medium and long term strategies. Clearly, this “organic farming” experiment was sloppy at best, but it should not overshadow the fact that the roots of the agricultural vulnerability have been decades in the making.
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@Resmith18SR People who are struggling dont feel like the economy is great, but all economies have struggling peoples, even in boom times. I'm not saying everything is great, thats impossible, but it is certainly a great economy by most metrics. And the number of people living paycheck to paycheck isn't particularly elevated by historic standards. People are not even close to maxing out their credit cards, as credit utilization is around 20%. Crime is has been plummeting for over a year now, thats objectively the case. Again, you're trying to imply that we cant have a well functioning economy unless everyone is doing great and crime doesn't exists, which is ridiculous. It will eventually hit 100 trillion, and that will be just as fine as the currency 35 trillion is, because the economy will have grown massively by then
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@Rob-fx2dw you are confusing external debt with internal debt. Not all currency issuers are the same. Currency issuing nations with a high degree of monetary sovereignty like the US,Uk,Canada, China, Japan have internal debt, meaning their debt is denominated entirely in their own currency. As such, their debt is sustainable and they can not lose control of their Interest rates. Other countries can be currency issuers too, but they usually have external debt, which means they have their debt denominated in foreign currencies, this means they are fiscally constrained and do not have control of their interest rates. This lack of monetary sovereignty means they have far less control of their fiscal policy. Just look at Japan, theyve been running massive deficits for decades and have the largest debt to gdp ratio in the world, and yet their inflation levels have not been excessive all this time. Because their debt is internal.
Secondly, the government is indeed the issuer of the currency. The federal reserve is the fiscal agent of the US government, it derives it’s authority from and answer to the government. Sure the individual reserve banks operate as private banks, but the presidents of those banks join together with the board of governors (who are appointed by the government) to from the FOMC (federal open market committee). This committee is the entity responsible for carrying out monetary and fiscal policy, and it works on behalf of the government to achieve its dual mandate, which is price stability and full employment
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@cwcobo No, taxes do not pay for anything the government does on the federal level. Taxes are debited out of existence upon payment, they don't actually go anywhere. The main purposes they serve are to create demand for the governments currency (the dollar) and to lower our spending power in order to create enough space in the economy for the government to conduct its own spending without causing inflaiton by having to outbid the private sector for a finite amount of resources. The deficit is merely the difference between what the government spends, and what it destroys via taxes. And as the government has access to an infinite supply of dollars, their ability to spend remains unchanged, whether they run a budget deficit or a budget surplus.
And no, the government doesn't "borrow" from the world. Dollars have to be spent into the economy by the government before they can be used to buy bonds. Thus those bond purchases are self financing. In other words the money used to buy bonds comes from the governments own deficit spending.
That begs the question, if the government doesn't borrow from anyone, why does it issue bonds? Because in the past, bond sales allowed the the fed to drain excess reserves from the banking system. If these reserves were not drained, the overnight interest rate would rapidly fall to 0. But since 08, they fed has been paying interest directly on reserves, meaning bond sales are no longer necessary to control the overnight interest rate, making them no longer necessary at all. So an easy good solution would just be to stop issuing bonds at all when we deficit spend. No more scary national debt increases
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@kore6078 As a currency issuer, the U.S. government can never go broke. The metaphor of household budgeting that we use to guide spending, that we should not spend more than we earn, should not be applied to a nation with a sovereign currency. The only limitation on government spending is inflation, a situation where too few dollars are chasing too few real goods and services. As long as inflation is kept in check, year-to-year budget deficits and accumulated debt matter little.
The idea that the government collects taxes to fund its operations. Wrong. The government prints money (actually conjures digital money into existence) to pay for everything it does. Spending comes first; taxation comes later. Taxes are a means of ensuring that the economy creates goods and services to buy (how individuals and companies pay their taxes) and to redistribute income. Taxes are not required to pay for government
what is important is not money, but the real productive capacity of the economy. This productive capacity is governed by how many goods and services can be produced, given the talent and energy of the people in the U.S., and the amount of raw materials and land, and other inputs. With the pandemic depressing economic opportunity, there is lots of room for the federal government (the currency issuer) to run large deficits to get money into the hands of people.
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@andrearobinson3911 It's not a lie, desantis' administration literally sent a letter to a small city in florida telling them not to loosen their zoning laws.
In what way do you want less government influence? In a world without government, we;d be cooperate slaves. The only reasons workers are allowed to have weekends and 8 hour work days is because of the government. Letting the private sector handle everything has been a big failure. Some things need to be done for reasons other than endless profit
As far as freedom goes, it seems to me that republicans are the ones trying to clamp down on our freedoms. They want to control whether or not you use contraception, what books you read, whether you can unionize, whether you can safely protest, your right to refuse federal agents entry into your home without a warrant, whether you can see a doctor without going bankrupt, whether you can smoke a little weed and more.
I don't think you're evil people, but trump was definitely a fraud. He used the difficult position of the working class to trick them into thinking he actually cared. When he became president, his single achievement was giving a massive tax giveaway to his rich corporate buddies. It doesn't matter what a politicians says in his speeches, it's about their actions.
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@bighominid Because our national debt is only a debt to the government, to the American people its an asset. Paying off tbe debt means getting rid of an asset that future generations would enjoy.
Money and bonds (gov debt) come from the same printer and are interchangeable. If you're not upset that your kids will inherit dollars, you shouldn't be upset they will inherit bonds.
You might be thinking, wait a minute, we give the government money through our taxes, its techincally our debt since the government has no money of its own. That is a common misconception. The truth is, all money is government money. Federal taxes don't actually pay for anything the government does, they are simply deleted at the IRS. Think about it, the money you're using to pay taxes comes from the government is the first place, so it doesn't make sense to say you're funding the government with your taxes. The government doesn't make us pay taxes because it needs our money, it makes us pay them in order to create demand for the US dollar. Taxes turn litter into currency.
The important thing to remember is, when the government creates debt, it just prints a bond and then sells it (to itself) for dollars. When it pays the interest on the debt, it simply turns those bonds back into dollars. So our national debt is just an accounting process that exchanges money and bonds between various accounts at the fed. Its not something we owe the government, its something the government has promised to give us. And it can never fail to make good on that promise, because it makes the dollar, and it borrows only from itself
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@Stephen-gi1rx The case you’re referring to occurred long before the US left the goals standard and became a fiat currency.
“Zimbabwe is the only issuer of the The Zimbabwe dollar, just as the Weimar Republic in its own time was the only issuer of the germane mark”
It might be the case that these countries had their own currencies, but the most important thing here is that their debts were not denominated in their own currencies. The were denominated in foreign currencies. All US debt is denominated in the US dollar, of which the United states government is the only issuer. Every instances of hyper inflation ever occurred as a result of paying foreign debts, not domestic ones.
“Buy anything available in its currency presumes it CAN afford to buy such things”
Like I said, the US government as the only issuer of the US dollar CAN afford to buy anything available in US dollars.
As for interest rates, those are a policy choice. The natural interest rate is 0. rather than adjusting the supply of reserves to meet its policy rate, as the monopoly issuer of reserves in a floating exchange rate regime, the central bank, in practice, acts as the price-setter for the level of reserves demanded by the banking system. The government could get rid of treasuries if they wanted to
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@Stephen-gi1rx “So? How does that affect the nature of the public debt of the United States?”
It has everything to do with the the nature of the public debt. The US leaving the gold standard and the dollar becoming a fiat currency is he whole reason they cannot default on their debt right now. Your position would be right IF we were still on the gold standard.
“You’re assuming that US borrowing the future will continue to be in the US dollar. As the national debt grows, doubts will begin to enter in that the US will still be in a position to pay for it”
That’s not true, as there is zero risk of default for the US gov. The US is the currency issuer and the national debt is just the record of money spent into the economy that hasn’t been taxed out and is kept in US treasuries. The US can always afford to pay interest on its bonds, and in fact does so voluntarily.
“Annual interest rates are already over 370 billion per year, and we could get to 1 trillion in the 2030’s”
First, a currency-issuing government never needs to borrow its own currency. Second, it can always determine the interest rate on bonds it chooses to sell. Third, government bonds help to shore up the private sector’s finances. The first point should be obvious, but it is often obscured by the way governments manage their fiscal operations. Take Japan, a country with its own sovereign currency. To spend more, Tokyo simply authorises payments and the Bank of Japan uses the computer to increase the quantity of Yen in the bank account. Today, borrowing is voluntary, at least for countries with sovereign currencies. Sovereign bonds are just an interest-bearing form of government money. The UK, for example, is under no obligation to offer an interest-bearing alternative to its zero-interest currency, nor must it pay market rates when it borrows. As Japan has demonstrated with yield curve control, the interest rate on government bonds is a policy choice. In truth, currency-issuing governments can safely spend without borrowing. The debt overhang that many are worried about can be avoided. That is not to say that there is anything wrong with offering people an interest-bearing alternative to government currency. Bonds are a gift to investors, not a sign of dependency on them. The question we should be debating, then, is how much “interest income” should governments be paying out, and to whom?
“As long as the debt is being paid for by US tax dollars”
It’s not paid for by US tax dollars.
“The natural interest rate being 0 is rubbish”
It’s not, and here’s why. If spending is not revenue constrained, why does the government (consolidated Treasury and Central Bank) borrow (sell securities)? As spending logically precedes tax collection, the government must likewise spend sufficiently before it can borrow. Thus, government spending must also, as a point of logic, precede security sales. To cite a real world example, market participants recognize that when Treasury securities are paid for, increasing Treasury balances at the Fed, the Fed does “repos” on the same day; the Fed must “add” so the Treasury can get paid.
Since the currency issuer does not need to borrow its own money to spend, security sales, like taxes, must have some other purpose. That purpose in a typical state money system is to manage aggregate bank reserves and control short-term interest rates (overnight interbank lending rate, or Fed funds rate in the United States).
In the modern economy, government “money” includes currency and central bank accounts known as member bank reserves. Government spending and lending adds reserves to the banking system. Government taxing and security sales drain (subtract) reserves from the banking system. When the government realizes a budget deficit, there is a net reserve add to the banking system. That is, government deficit spending results in net credits to member bank reserve accounts. If these net credits lead to excess reserve positions, overnight interest rates will be bid down by the member banks with excess reserves to the interest rate paid on reserves by the central bank (zero percent in the case of the USA and Japan, for example). If the central bank has a positive target for the overnight lending rate, either the central bank must pay interest on reserves or otherwise provide an interest-bearing alternative to non-interest-bearing reserve accounts. This is typically done by offering securities for sale in the open market to drain the excess reserves. Central Bank officials and traders recognize this as “offsetting operating factors,” since the sales are intended to offset the impact of the likes of fiscal policy, float, and so forth on reserves that would cause the Fed funds rate to move away from the Fed’s target rate. My main point is, in nations that include the USA, Japan, and others where interest is not paid on central bank reserves, the “penalty” for deficit spending and not issuing securities is not “bounced” government checks but a zero percent interbank rate, as in Japan today.
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@johncrocker4209 He clearly can, hence why he did it in the first place. I suggest you read the higher education act bucko.
And no, i paid mine off, thats not why i voted for dems, i voted for them because im tired of the same failed neoliberal policies and trickle down economics scams that the republican party are still championing.
I agree with you that they didnt codify abortion because they knew it would make a good politcal tool when you guys finally got rid if it, and i don't blame them. It worked perfectly and will continue to work perfectly for many elections to come.
No, they couldnt have forgiven studen loans through Congress, you need 60 votes for that
Lol, a republican lecturing me on big pharma, Biden made it so the government could negotiate lower drug prices, which is the biggest victory against big pharma in recent memory. They fought it tooth and nail and republicans have even talked sbout reversing it when they gain power again. Now tell me whose beholden to big pharma.
And what do you mean big energy? Incentivising companies to invest in renewable energies is a good thing, both for climate and our energy resillience. But of course you vote republican so you want congress to sell out to big oil
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