Comments by "David Himmelsbach" (@davidhimmelsbach557) on "Ukraine's Alternate Win Condition: Inside the Gamble on the War of Attrition" video.

  1. In only five-days, this Pentagon style analysis has been made obsolete. The 'Sorrow Line' has been decisively breached. [ The RA defense has (locally) broken down. Morale is THAT crappy. ] There are -- essentially -- no mines behind it. [ Counter-battery fires have immolated the RA defense. ] It has been the INSANE concentration of mines -- anti-tank/ anti-personnel -- that made the NATO standard model absurd. The UA has compelled the RA to throw in its 'Imperial Guard' -- the VDV -- not much different than Napoleon at Waterloo/ Mont St. Jean. Only this time, it's to stop any gap from popping loose before the Mud Season. Drones largely eliminate the WWI/ WWII trench systems as a Big Advantage. The UA is simply eliminating the opposition -- at retail -- with grenade drops. VDV troops are not performing as elite soldiers. ( Those storied units are now stuffed with newbies. ) The UA has reverted to NATO standard doctrine -- now that the mine fields are (largely) behind them. There is NO WAY that the RA ever could lay mines all along its own defense access roads. Drones have entirely replaced helicopter scouts -- the boys made famous during Vietnam. The very recent tank duels, something I'd thought would be quite rare, show that the RA machines and crews are cowed by the West's stuff. When the UA destroyed the Russian naval HQ at Sevastopol, it was revealed that in was a COMBINED HQ. It functioned as the master HQ for the land army in southern occupied Ukraine. Essentially the entire chain of command has been sent to the hospital. Soon, attack'ems will light off any RA ammo depots across the entire southern occupation zone. And just in the nick of time. RA 152mm ammo starvation will cause UA infantry advances to become enabled. RA counter-attacks become futile when the UA has cluster munitions ready to hand. [ Video footage of same on the Internet. ] That DP stuff shreds both BMPs and SPAs -- same as infantry. Oh, my! Attrition warfare works by bleeding the opponent, demoralizing him, until the dam breaks. This is what happened in 1918. It also happened in 1865. For the stakes involved, the calculus of Vietnam/ Afghanistan cannot be used. Neither combatant can back off. Period. BTW, Putin has (essentially) never drafted Muscovites. He can't. He also can't tap Saint Petersburg -- and that's whence he hails. He has ALREADY burned through his 'expendables.' He has crippled his economy. His ammo situation is so dire, that he kissed Kim's hand. (!) He does have Ritter and McGregor on his side. That's the kiss of death -- right there. I called the Falklands war -- to a tee (1982); ditto for Gulf War (1990/1991); ditto for the day of the Russian Revolution. (1991) And, that's my short list. As these predictions unfolded, my audiences always thought that my accuracy was one-of-a-kind. It's just a shame that I can't predict my own life. Such is life.
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