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David Himmelsbach
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Comments by "David Himmelsbach" (@davidhimmelsbach557) on "Is Russia gearing up for a huge Donbas offensive?" video.
The video managed to reach its end without bringing up the single most important factor: MUD. Ukraine is still in the height of mud season. This means that tank armies are (largely) road bound. During WWII, both German and Soviet armies found attacks during mud season to be utterly futile. Seventy-nine-years ago Stalin attacked west -- and suffered 30:1 losses over a two-week period. Mud did that.
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@ДмитрийСвергин The M-1 has big feet. Its ground pressure is ~15 psi -- which is very much less than a horse's hoof. Mud is the killer because TRUCKS can't deal with it -- even if they have power to all wheels. Why? They simply sink down until their axles are in the mud. There are photos of Russian military trucks -- very nice ones -- stranded in exactly this way -- four-weeks ago. No tank force can go any serious distance without a snake of trucks rolling behind it. Generals plan on ~50 trucks to support each and every tank. (Trucks do have to make the round trip for more stuff. Tanks are pigs for ammo, fuel, repairs... ANY tank. These are fighting machines -- not pizza delivery machines.) Mud also slows down even tanks and IFVs, APCs, SPA. Each SPA needs about 150 trucks to support it. 152mm ammo is large. The guns eat it like they're breathing air. And the trucks have to make the round-trip -- which must be assumed to be 250km for planning purposes. GRAD launchers are even worse than 152mm SPA in this regard. Why so grim? Traffic jams ... every moment is 'rush hour' -- breakdowns ( enemy/flat tires/ blown bridges/ speed restrictions (floating bridging) on and on the logistical train just eats up truck utilization. All of the above explains why the Russians were frustrated in Phase One at Kyiv and Kharkov. No WAY were they in any position to encircle either city. The Russian tank forces would have had to entirely leave the road network. Cross-country truck transits would cause 'truck capacity' destruction.
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@ДмитрийСвергин The M-1 is not going to be an issue because the US is not going to issue them to Kyiv. The M-1 is very similar to T-72/80/90 in ground pressure. NO tank can be effective during mud season. And now rain is all around. Only tyrants such as Adolf and Stalin (and Putin) order offensives during mud. Mud destroyed Napoleon and Adolf -- not Winter. Neither horse nor man can deal with deep mud... mud so cold that it kills. BTW, only the heaviest down pours frustrate Switchblade drones. Such drones must be the kiss of death for SPA. Once this becomes obvious, you should expect their crews to flee to safety. It's been established: Javelins and NLAWs kill tank crews 95% of the time. Once it's obvious that these missiles are in action, tank crews -- with any sense -- will bail out. The Russian assault force will have to dis-mount and re-fight World War One. By now, Ukraine has more than 2,000 Smart ATGMs in its hands; plus: 10,000 of all other types of ATGMs. (So many types that they're hard to list, to count.)
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@onlyducati4 So you naturally throw away your VDV/ parachute forces in a vain assault. Yep. I got it. This is seen all the time in military affairs; elite formations destroyed during a show of force. Doing so makes perfect sense to me. /s
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The Russians are attacking along axis that Kyiv long anticipated. We may be witnessing a repetition of Kursk. (Citadel, 1943) If April 9th is the target, Putin has already waited too long.
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