Comments by "David Himmelsbach" (@davidhimmelsbach557) on "What might happen if Russia does attack Ukraine?" video.

  1. The Greens are causing the Netherlands to stop exporting natural gas. That decision would be reversed. There are a LOT of coal fired power plants that -- now that it's a war emergency -- would be fired up. The Germans just shut down two huge atomic power plants -- due to Green politics. These would be turned back on. Hence, Putin does not have the 'energy leverage' many assume. There is a well nigh universal tendency to assume that all trade is kind-of equivalent. It's not. Trade with the US is high margin -- very profitable -- because Americans will pay the price exporters desire. ( Daimler Benz comes to mind. Back in the 1970s DB was making 50% profits exporting to Americans. No other market was anything like it.) In contrast, it's virtually impossible to make fat money selling to Red China. It's simply not a truly wealthy society. One must settle for ordinary margins... unless you've got some special leverage. The CCP does not favor importing highly manufactured goods as a matter of general principle. They are hardly alone. All of this leads to tears for Putin, as Europe is his cash cow. India, Red China, et. al are no where near as profitable for Moscow.
    6
  2. Putin figures to succeed militarily -- and then proceed to loose is shirt -- and likely his life. The first rule of politics is don't make your own crew poorer. Invading Ukraine is certain to do that.
    3