Comments by "David Himmelsbach" (@davidhimmelsbach557) on "Ukraine. Military Summary And Analysis 22.06.2022" video.
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Buddy, great analysis, except that the Ukrainians have already totally escaped the pocket... even before you posted to YT. Heh.
Yes, it sure looks like Zelenskyy's generals have trolled Moscow.
It was obvious that the RA could pocket UA forward positions (Zolote) -- going back days and days.
The UA left a skeleton crew in place while the brigade displaced to trenches, long prepared, back up north.
Life is tough all over. [ Putin just lost an entire oil refinery to a hobbyist drone. The video of the fiasco is already viral. ]
There is a brutal reality: the Lend-Lease pipeline from the USA has to come by ship. The volume, the heft, is too great for airlift.
The very tip of that flow has finally arrived in theater. Putin has seen NOTHING yet.
Putin has 'culminated' -- in military speak.
Kyiv has imposed a news embargo across most of the front -- which can only mean that something's afoot.
My guess is that the RA is now out-manned across most of its invasion front -- it's so long --
and that Kyiv can poke holes in Russian defenses almost at will.
Putin has to thank his stars that the Ukrainian Army is so 'green.' (One is reminded of the Soviets at the start of Uranus.)
Ivan will not tolerate a super fiasco. That's what did in the Tsar back in 1905.
If I were a Ukrainian general, I'd concentrate my best artillery at one spot, and peel open Putin's front.
I'd also have to concentrate my SAM defense, too. Putin has BTGs all across the wrong side of the Dnieper.
With only a handful of crossings, the troops are probably going to flat out panic when they see they're being trapped.
If Putin loses an entire army, his crew is not going to take it well.
The Mirror claims that Putin's top body guard just committed suicide -- semi-successfully. There's been a LOT of that going on.
I wish I had the antacid concession for the Kremlin. Think of the volume!
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Sievierodonetsk is playing out like Stalingrad:
Factory fighting √
River behind the defenders√
Political compulsion by invaders √
Ebb and flow √
Artillery advantage for defenders behind the river (they can look down from above) √
Marginal involvement by air force √
Rat-war (tunnel fighting) √
Difficult logistics supplying the defenders √
Invaders see campaign victory in sight √
Invaders run out of infantry √
Invaders not trained in urban warfare √
All nearby formations stripped of infantry so as to carry on the bloody work √
BTW, the typical Western combatant is not paid a penny.
They are actually paying their own way, bringing their own stuff, too!
Yup.
So, they're NOT mercenaries -- by definition.
Adolf was convinced -- right to the end -- that the Reds had to be in crisis -- were ready to break.
Yet, after taking astounding losses, far beyond anything Ukraine has endured, the Red Army reached his bunker.
The difference maker was American Lend-Lease aid -- that and British aid.
To a tremendous degree, Stalin didn't have to manufacture his own war goods.
Half of his aviation fuel was coming up the Volga from Abadan, Iran... courtesy of British Petroleum.
Half of his copper was free from the USA... and that came as manufactured wire, cable assemblies, telephone cables, etc.
And so it went - across the board.
Right now, Zelenskyy is getting unlimited Lend-Lease aid. Congress will always just open up the purse, time and time, again.
Putin is totally screwed. Kyiv doesn't even need war production -- at all. Everyone can go to the front and fight.
BTW, Lend-Lease aid always grows exponentially. So, Putin has seen NOTHING yet.
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@berserker6341 The invasion is strictly Putin's project. Even his own crew was stunned.
The head of the SVR has already been given the boot. He's not alone.
The Mirror just reported that Putin's personal #1 bodyguard just attempted suicide. There's a LOT of that going around Moscow. You'd think Putin was a Clinton.
Lend-Lease is EASY for Congressmen. The money is just a bump within the US DoD budget. The money is spent -- almost all of it -- INSIDE the US economy. It evaporates as American (union) labor. Lend-Lease is already as untouchable as Social Security. The first tranche, $40,000,000,000 is a trivial fraction of the US DoD budget. It, however, towers above Kyiv's budget. The American outlays are being matched -- almost dollar for dollar -- by the rest of the West -- to include Japan and Korea -- even Taiwan. (!)
Yeah, Taiwan has killer drones -- priced at $0.00 for Kyiv.
If you dare listen in to phone calls to home, you can hear -- over and over -- about the rotten morale of Russian troops -- who are telling Mother and lover how they want OUT.
In contrast, Ukrainian troops are fired up. Protecting Mom, Dad, Sister, Brother -- and the Grandparents -- yeah, they're fired up. Zelenskyy has more guys begging to serve than he can equip.
Putin is in the opposite situation. He's got ranks of tanks -- but has to grab men -- of all ages -- in all medical conditions -- from the two 'Donbas republics.' These are the bullet stoppers showing up for battle with a bolt-action Mosin Nagant -- and lousy foot ware.
He's just sent in (Georgian) dupes riding sixty-year-old T-62 tanks. The video is out there. The tanks look like junk. They are coffins on tracks. I used to contend that these machines were to be strictly for rear area intimidation of civilians. Oops. My bad!
Putin has entirely destroyed the Ukrainian refinery industry. It's gone. So? Now the Ukrainians are going after HIS refineries. He can't protect them any more than the Ukrainians could. I'd be shocked if Putin has ANY refineries left by the end of Autumn. As he knows so well, they are easy targets.
In WWII, the USAAF won the war by destroying Nazi Germany's aviation fuel refineries. Only the Big Three counted. This campaign is known to history as The Big Week. The Luftwaffe scarcely flew again. It could only fly token sorties in the USSR. It had to spend days accumulating fuel before contesting the USAAF. The Red Air Force, the RAF became irrelevant to Goring and Adolf.
This history is well known -- especially to the USAF -- which is certainly advising Zelenskyy.
Putin is screwed.
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