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David Himmelsbach
RFU News — Reporting from Ukraine
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Comments by "David Himmelsbach" (@davidhimmelsbach557) on "RFU News — Reporting from Ukraine" channel.

You've totally missed the essential Ukrainian tactic -- demoralization of all Russian firefighters. They end up working their asses off -- only to see all of their work leading to absolutely nothing. Instead, they are totally spent as fire #2 begins... and fire crew #1 can't get out of bed. Heh.
30
Your presentation is the best I've seen.
25
Kyiv ought to be keeping an eye on the Dnipro reservoir -- as the RA is now desperate. The relocation of Russian artillery is quite impossible. Once self-propelled howitzers break cover, they are toast. The UA is simply awaiting their abandonment/capture. In the meantime, the UA is going to continue to plink away -- with drones spotting for the big guns. The UA hit rate is astonishing. I don't see how Putin can avert a total collapse of morale in the Kherson oblast pocket. Tales of the FSB patrolling the southeast bank of the Dnipro -- to thwart flight -- are already circulating. Shoot-outs inside Kherson (the train station) have already reached social media. One would imagine that partisans are focusing on traitors, collaborators... and the FSB, itself.
14
It's best to keep in mind that Adolf's boys kept attacking virtually to the final hour -- and then Uranus erupted. Paulus actually cancelled what was expected to be a final attack. The Soviet's perimeter was THAT tiny at that point. To do that, 6th Army had stripped ALL formations to obtain assault troops. Its precarious state was not apparent to any outsider. All that the Reds knew was that Kraut morale was in the toilet. The UA is capturing enemy troops all the time. And such men show rotten morale, forced induction, lousy weapons and equipment. Bolt-action rifles are not viable in battle anymore. Among the troops, the UA has high morale. They have been well led to date -- so confidence in their superiors is quite high. Not so for Russian troops. The UA is conducting a purely attrition strategy. Strong points are only abandoned at the last second. If the Ukrainians were flaky, they would've fled a LONG time ago. Instead, they are highly motivated by Russian atrocities -- to protect -- Mom, Dad, Sister, Brother -- and the Grandparents. They KNOW why they're fighting.
13
@jeffnduran Boris, mounds ? Try another one.
10
The UA has already reached the long reservoir -- so that Izyum is -- de facto -- out of ordinary supply. All movement now has to travel by secondary roads -- or across farmland. The UA is just running all over the back roads -- as the RA left most villages without a garrison... just a few goons.
9
You -- everyone -- keeps skipping past the weather. It's turning rotten. Mud Season is scheduled for October -- a tad early -- but not unusually so. Russian morale -- in a muddy ditch -- as the temperature drops below freezing -- is going to plunge.
8
Zelenskyy is raising the UA up to 1,000,000 men -- PDQ. It must be obvious that the displaced/retreated troops are now in the process of rest and refit. They will be the cadre for their brigades -- if not divisions. They carry a wealth of combat experience.
7
Let's all remember that LPR and DPR 'forces' are entirely composed of reluctant Ukrainians -- dragooned into the ranks. One is reminded of Poles in Normandy -- in German uniforms, German ranks, their own outfit -- one fine day they discover that the Allied force attacking them is Polish -- to the last man. With cries of 'brother' they dropped their rifles. Monty, somehow, had managed to use Poles to fight Poles -- just kidding. Within no time flat, the Poles in German uniforms received new ones courtesy of Monty. He'd stocked up quite a few right behind his own Poles. What a co-incidence ! What's happening here is that Putin, like his mentor Adolf, has gotten too clever, and has tried to get his enemies to kill each other off. It's not working out that way. Given half-a-chance, Ukrainians in LPR/DPR uniforms are ditching them// dropping their rifles. ( Which is sad, since they are valuable antiques... Mosin-Nagant, they are. ) The Big Story is that Putin has flatly run out of infantry. He's on his way to running out of artillery, tanks and helicopter pilots. Then what?
7
Zelenskyy needs to ask Germany, France for excavators.
6
Strategically, this is what Kyiv high command wanted all along. The gambit is to ONLY retreat at the last second. Putin has been left with three empty bags in a row: Zolote, Sievierodonetsk, and now Lysychansk. In each case, the Putinistas were in high spirits that the UA was done for. Then. Silence.
5
It's already official. Kyiv wants the boys pulled back to a more defensible line. Ukaine is larger than France. Hence, fluid defense is the norm. The front line is composed of 'hedgehogs' as neither side has (even remotely) enough troops to craft a WWI style defense. HIMARS has already been in action -- and -- to my surprise -- it's been hitting buildings. That translates into high value military assets. The strike was videoed by a drone... and its going viral.
5
Wasting Norks is not NEWS. It's been the plan all along -- and everyone knew of it.
5
@kalicom2937 I'm going to have to send you back to military academy. Sievierodonetsk was an echo of Stalingrad. You WANTED the fight to be in that city -- not the heights. During that fight, the UA had the high ground and could call in much more accurate artillery fires. It was a DREAM situation for the defense. The scrum worked out perfectly for Kyiv high command. That's why fresh blood kept being put into the fight. Lysychansk is of a different character. The RA had flanked the position. So no matter how dreamy that city was for defense -- it was time to say goodbye. For the RA, it has to be professionally infuriating that (3) three pockets in a row produced nothing-burgers. The boys back in Kyiv really know their stuff. The entire sequence drew RA infantry away from all other sectors. What a plus. As it stands, Kyiv high command is building, building, building a 1,000,000 army. Putin knows this -- and his crew is freaking out. I'm reminded of Sam Houston and how he gutted Santa Ana -- so many decades ago. Today's RA has a glass jaw: insufficient infantry. Bullet stopping LPR & DPR school teachers don't count.
5
The UA owns the night -- and the RA can't deal with it. I've posted that the Kherson oblast pocket should not last through October. It probably has ten -- maybe fifteen days of existence left. The RA simply has no cross-country transport capability -- in the amounts required. Now that the front has been ruptured -- panic will sweep through Russian ranks. The UA is always bringing Stingers with them -- so the Russian air force is rather terrified -- should high command insist on close air support. Bold pilots don't make for old pilots.
4
He didn't say that. His (surviving) critics did. He was defeating the Romans, BTW. Greece simply could not field sufficient armies to go toe-to-toe with Rome. That, and Greece had a dated military approach. Pike walls were so 'yesterday.'
4
@josephkush1032 What they're doing is blowing up Russian ammo dumps... and rather spectacularly, too. The real reason Izyum has not been a factor in the last surge: 1st Guards Tank Army HQ was hit, and its ammo dumps have been punished. The hits are so big, so hot, that they can be seen from satellites. (!!!) It's a disturbing trend -- for Putin. Of note: Putin has started sourcing ammo from Belarus. (!!!) That's WEIRD.
4
@markorstb The kicker is distance. The Dnieper is 1.3 km across around Kherson. That's a LOT of pontoons. I suspect that Putin has nowhere near that many pontoons ready at the river. I'll bet that they are being brought up as I type. Heh.
4
@Insidious_Rage The West is the First World; Russia (USSR) is the SECOND World; India, et. al is the Third World. So, by definition, Russia can't ever be in the First World. It's ALWAYS been against the First World. Hence the creation of NATO. Of course, the Russian Federation is no federation -- it's an EMPIRE -- which is using its conquered subjects as cannon fodder in Ukraine. The sole reason Putin's (Moscow) popularity has not cratered is because Muscovites are scarcely involved at the front -- or anywhere else. Only Muscovite dissidents are forceably 'conscripted' by the Kremlin. They are instant cannon fodder, naturally. To 'step-out' is to die.
3
@dakedakinson64 Heh. Keep trying. The fact is that such battles are bloody for both sides. But your figure is straight off the dartboard.
3
Your video is nonsense. The Norks were sacrificed so that competent Russian forces could attack from the flanks - which they did - successfully. Consequently, the Russians advanced exactly as they intended. It was a total success as far as Moscow is concerned. This battle is worrisome as it shows that the Ukrainians need new tactics. At the heart of the Russian attack: fibre optic controlled drones. These took out 3 Bradleys, which were the heart of the Ukrainian tactical defense system. They flew straight through EW jamming, of course.
3
The UA and RA are racing the calendar. Period. The slow progress of the UA in the last week -- I attribute to the weather -- it's turning rotten. The UA REALLY needs to get boots inside Luhansk oblast -- PDQ. The psychology of losing vast tracks of farmland should not be underestimated. Urban fighting is costly and, above all, SLOW. I favor a great northern sweep -- first -- then an encirclement of the bigger towns. If Mud Season arrives early -- as it seems to be doing -- then a great northern sweep becomes wholly impractical. It really does seem that Kyiv has Moscow's mind-set. For the Kremlin can't NOT race to protect its 'southern investment' -- denuding Luhansk to do so. Kyiv also has interior lines... something that Napoleon could appreciate. Zelenskyy needs MORE Diesel-electric locomotives -- PDQ. We're about to see the 'war of the power circuits' get intense.
3
Putin is prosecuting the VDV commander -- for wasting Muscovites.
3
This is not a catastrophe -- it's a strategic victory. Zelenskyy is playing for time -- and making the RA pay a brutal price. You ARE looking at a methodical retreat. This is what one actually looks like -- outside of military history books. The heavy equipment left DAYS ago. That's WHY the salient collapsed so fast. Only light infantry and a few token guns were left to slow down the RA. And all this while, the UA was tattooing the forward RA units with long range artillery. These fires were so intense that they could be spotted from space. (Yes, RA artillery fires can be spotted, too. They are intense -- yet spread all over creation -- trying to hit departing UA troops.) (Artillery does not work well when the enemy won't stay put.)
3
@josephkush1032 Western aid is still ramping up. The USSR went through this dynamic. Once the Reds gained the upper edge, the Nazis couldn't hold on to anything... not even Berlin. BTW, these cities are not strategic... other than to Putin. For his political reasons, he needed to conquer the last cities in the northern Donbass.
3
@denismorgan9742 I've never seen that reported ANYWHERE. BTW, the dam holds back the water, it's a sweet water canal that brings the good stuff to Crimea. That canal is on the southeast side -- a tad up-stream from the dam. Kaliningrad is not under 'blockade.' Putin is not being allowed to use the rails to ship in SANCTIONED goods, only. What's weird: it'd be cheaper to bring in the goodies by ship => from St. Petersburg to Kaliningrad by sea figures to be cheaper than rail.
3
So, another month of city fighting? Another meat grinder? Well, Kyiv has expect it, that's for sure.
2
Ice -- the grand strategy is tied into grand politics. Putin is edging towards a ceasefire with the intent of getting France and Germany to buy into his conquests. BUT... He can't push such an agenda with the Ukrainians fighting like heroes in the east. That's what's driving the Big Picture. He wants ALL of the Donbass. This is why so many RA troops are being thrown into city fighting. As for Zelenskyy, defending in the east is bleeding the RA white. Putin just has to be losing three to four men to kill one Ukrainian. That's the universal military blood-math of major city fighting. I strongly suspect that Zelenskyy's flanks are going to be receiving fresh brigades -- and that his central position is sure to be getting 155mm howitzers from the West. It's astonishing to see how slowly the RA is advancing. It's an army without (nearly enough) infantry. That's what's happened.
2
@LW During WWII, American troops referred to Germans as 'Krauts'; the British said 'Jerry.' Right now, in Ukraine, the UA refers to Russians as 'Orcs.' Yup. It's passed into common military slang. There is irony here. The final in "The Two Towers" features the White Wizard coming over the hill to rescue. That scene, that battle, is but an echo, a literary reference to the Siege of Vienna which ended 9-11-1683 in exactly that manner. Polish cavalry saved Vienna -- led by their king. (Austria repaid Polish heroics by breaking up Poland about a century later -- the biggest hunk to Russia.) This time around, Warsaw is bailing out Kyiv. Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania -- all have one thing in common -- too much history with Russia.
2
They are not. Ukraine is simply that huge. For really close-together villages -- visit: Germany, France, Belgium. Ukrainian farms, relative to European norms are pretty big. This is entirely due to ruthless Stalin. He utterly destroyed the old order. He murdered millions -- destroying countless villages at the same time. He created mega-farms -- what today you'd call 'Kansas scale.' Yes, he was attempting to recreate Kansas. He didn't know diddly about farming, but he'd read about America. With John Deere equipment running around, towing T-72s by the dozen, Ukraine really IS starting to look like Kansas.
2
The impending advance of the Russians has been so obvious that every single Internet observer has noted it for weeks. Considering how savvy the Ukrainian generals have proven to be, I find it quite unlikely that 3,000 men were thrown away -- in a pocket. I posit that the entire front is now fluid BECAUSE the Ukrainians are displacing to new defenses -- which I'm sure Kyiv has been trenching for weeks. There is absolutely nothing that would cause Kyiv to stay put -- and be pocketed. I know that Kyiv has a news embargo for the southwest. I suspect that an embargo exists for Zolote, too. Kyiv has fogged up this front so completely that Internet eyes have nothing to work from. Zelenskyy does not appreciate hints/ ideas being gifted to Moscow.
2
The UA has displaced to safety. Whew. As the weeks roll by, the UA is out recruiting the RA, ... so ... step by step the Ukrainians are gumming up Putin's invasion. The RA now moves a glacial speed -- pretty much everywhere. If Putin actually attacks Poland or Lithuania -- the dogs of war will have been let loose -- which is totally crazy for Moscow. The Mirror is reporting that Putin's #1 bodyguard just attempted suicide. The man is more dangerous than the Clinton clan.
2
@universalflamethrower6342 If ONLY the Krauts would've chickened out. My Father fought from D-Day to the Rhine -- and damn -- the enemy never got easy. You must be thinking about brave Sir Robin. As the USSR showed, you can win Big with strategic defense. By the time the Reds went over to the attack, Adolf was done for.
2
@phuckyu3383 I'd posit that the UA is pretty careful with its howitzers. As for HIMARS -- they just arrived. Their first salvo went against some ordinary buildings. One must assume that it was a high value target. The target was actively observed during the hits -- and video has been uploaded to the Web -- it's gone viral. What was striking was the precision of the hits. Pretty scary, really. There were no secondary explosions - so the target was certainly not an ammo dump. The only high priority targets that spring to mind would be a com center or HQ. If the latter, one hopes that the RA was seriously disrupted. I predict that HIMARS is only going to fire at night... and then scoot... lights out... with the drivers using night vision goggles. I don't know how the RA can stop such a gambit. I think they're screwed. During the day, HIMARS will be tucked away in any number of hiding spots. At some point, HIMARS is going to surely be directed against Russian artillery -- rocket artillery. Russian rocket artillery is extremely vulnerable to counter-battery fires. 'Nuff said.
2
It now appears that the first target was the HQ for the Russian 20th Army. (Don't bet the ranch on that assumption.) This is the primary army tasked with the current fight, AFAIK. The other Army is the 8th -- think Popasna. I was amazed that the UA even knew where the HQ building complex was. The drone footage -- it's gone viral -- shows astounding precision. Such a complex just HAD to have a lot of senior commanders -- especially those dealing with logistics. Those boys never go up to the front. They have to stay in the rear with the gear. Any army that loses its 'G4' is in a world of hurt. For the Russians, it means crisis.
2
It's still cold as Hell. Those boys were freezing to death.
2
MyCure -- the UA should've been redeploying troops for days before the end. For starters, tanks and APCs are useless in a static defense, regardless of what civilian keyboard warriors may think. Their value is in their mobility. Russia has PLENTY of Komets and such that would absolutely gut Ukrainian armor if it stayed put. Russian has plenty of 152mm artillery that would destroy anything of value -- once it is spotted. None of this is news to the UA. I suspect that the Big Surprise for the UA was the effective advance from the east across their line of communication. It's plain (out of the fog of war) that the UA attempted a (night) counter-attack coming down from up north, to stop the Russian drive to the west. It didn't get far -- as the Russians were expecting such a flank attack -- and had plenty of mortars and such to stop light infantry. This attack was attributed to the Zolote boys -- obviously, incorrectly. The fact is that when the Russians are concentrated, they can't be stopped. But such concentration compelled Putin to strip all other sectors. This happened to Adolf at Stalingrad. By the end, his flanks had practically no infantry. He even looted combat engineers from multiple divisions so as to storm Stalingrad. They were killed in action. Putin has surely done the same thing. That's why he's frantically chasing replacement bodies -- all over Russia. ( Just not Moscow, not St. Petersburg.) I'm amazed that folks are estimating the Zolote pocket as having 1,000 troops. Boy, if true, that's a first class screw-up. Uranus showed that 6th Army had stuck its neck out -- too far. Putin has surely thinned out his flanks -- too much. Even with a green army, Zelenskyy is in a sweet position to make hay. (A Ukrainian pass time, If I hear correctly.) Anywhere across the south or southwest seems ripe for a pricking. Russian Armies don't back-up well. The boys are not trained to do so. The RA is thin on infantry. So, once the UA gets rolling, Putin may become totally unwound -- at a speed that will have the world aghast. The Vikings landed in 1066 with (600) boats. After the English drubbed them, (Harold) the survivors only needed (6) boats for their escape. (!!!!!) The Vikings simply did not expect a counter-attack. Oops. Centuries of 'Viking fun' were over. Oh, well.
2
@FirstNameLastName-hy1pf Millions of Russians returned home from Ukraine after 1991. Try again.
2
The UA is simply picking the RA apart, bleeding it to death. In all of this, keep track of the Russian losses -- as Putin can't replace his stuff with new production. (Mostly) Everything lost requires depletion of hardware; it's all pulled from the (Soviet reserve) stash... even the tank shells. (!) [Putin is losing his self-propelled artillery at an astonishing rate.] Whereas, the UA is getting new stuff from the West every day of the week.
2
@marcusott2973 Well, it's a fact that 44th (HUD) was sent to Italy after the fiasco at Stalingrad. Indeed, virtually every 6th Army infantry division, panzer division and panzergrenadier division was slotted there. 16th PD -- see Salerno 29th MD 60th MD 44th (HUD) 305 ID 94 ID 335 ID I forget the rest -- age is doing me in. What's of interest here is that these units performed amazingly well -- considering that they had been utterly shattered/destroyed in the Stalingrad pocket. Their cadres came from the boys on leave, the boys coming back from rehab, and the lucky few that flew out of the pocket. ( Think 16th PD, 29th MD, 60th MD => the MECHANICS ! ) So, all of the Russian 'bots should concede that the UA will regenerate its brigades.
2
Rah, rah videos have no value to anyone. What needs to be reported is the weird incompetence of Ukrainian higher commanders... and the obvious $$$ corruption involved in military purchasing. The ONLY way that these repeated scandals can be occurring is because Zelenskyy is spending far too much time raising Cain in the West and no where near enough time cleaning out the dead wood in his own military. Once Zelenskyy really takes care of business, the Russian advances will simply stop. The actual reason why Trump is threatening Zelenskyy's cash flow is because of the above. Trump is issuing a wake-up-call to Kyiv on its finances -- NOT its flow of US hardware. Once this war is ended, Zelenskyy is sure to fall from grace. ( It happened to Winston. It's to be expected. ) Trump simply CAN'T tell the world what's the Real Issue. If Zelenskyy had been honest, back in 2019, 2020; Biden would never have been 'elected' -- which by now has been shown to be an utterly fraudulent ballot count -- with video evidence to prove as such. Without Biden -- the president who was never all there -- Putin would have delayed his aggression four-more-years. The American voter put Reagan in the White House. That impudent Wild Man directly triggered the End of the Cold War/ aka WWIII. H.W. Bush had absolutely nothing to do with it. And when that happened, Bush did simply everything wrong. 1991 was THE year to truly end the Cold War -- and Bush simply delayed its end for another generation. Bush was also the guy who sent Beijing ALL of the wrong signals in 1989-1993. He was, after all, the CIA's man in Beijing. So H.W. Bush is Mr. Deep State right out of the gun. ( Bush's diplomat, a woman, gave the world the Kuwaiti invasion, too. She couldn't tell Saddam "No!" The American voter put Trump in the White House. That crazy man was always against the Bush, Clinton, Hillary, Chaney, Biden invasion of Iraq -- before it even happened. (!) It's no wonder they ALL hate his guts. Think of the Grifting possibilities that have been exploited. H.W. Bush + Bill Clinton + Hillary made $1,500,000,000 disappear into their 'foundations.' Haitians are still pissed. The MSM still buries that lede. Folks, we live in a time of epic financial corruption of our political elites. This is obvious to outsiders. Biden, Zelenskyy, Putin, Xi, Clinton, Hillary, HW Bush -- they are ALL past their eyeballs in self-dealing. And they ALL have their Press covering for them. It's not a pretty picture. The Deep State figures you’re so stupid as to actually believe America's utterly compromised Deep Media. Putin is commonly referred to as an ex-Spy for the KGB. NO WAY! Putin’s role was to spew out lies from inside the Iron Curtain — and from Dresden — a political dead-end for any KGB officer. Yes, Putin was NEVER a spy. Anyone who tells you such is a BS artist — or a high school student in an adult body. Bezmenov held a similar role — in India. Search for his videos on You Tube. Only then will you understand what the KGB was all about. Spying, per se, was NEVER a KGB interest. Only the GRU conducted actual spying. This conflation has been deliberate. Even in the famous film: “The Falcon and the Snowman” the GRU officer in the Mexican embassy of the USSR is repeatedly referred to as Mr. KGB… which is totally backwards. BTW, the KGB and GRU absolutely HATE each other. The KGB really represents the Bolshevik Party — and the GRU represents the Soviet military establishment. In the US, this split is replicated in the CIA/ DIA. With the former being almost wholly political — and way, way, way to the Left in politics/ ideology. The latter is the Pentagon’s spy force. The DIA wants to win wars; the CIA wants to win in politics. Which is why the CIA just can’t bear to obey its charter — and stay out of America’s domestic politics.
2
Russian lines are EAST of Pokrovsk, a city that is still under Ukrainian occupation and control. Right now, MORALE is far more important than the motion on the ground -- and Russian morale = near collapse.
2
Beef, Kyiv has slapped a news embargo on all operations in the southwest. Things are afoot.
2
@moshdude8444 Ukrainian high command. I expect a sweet (gloating) video announcement tomorrow. So, you don't have long to wait. (Moscow was trolled by Kyiv.) Putin figures to be furious -- as a tasty pocket would've made for great TV propaganda. Oh, well. The map told the whole world a pocket was about to snap shut. So, it's hardly a surprise that the UA didn't hang around. Similar stunts occurred over and over on the Eastern Front of WWII -- by both armies. Token screens would man positions -- as the main forces withdrew -- and then the pocket would prove to be empty. In the vastness of the land, the screening troops simply evaded capture... by ones and twos. Naturally, their commanders selected boys fleet of foot. Soviet lads could walk to the east -- 24-hours a day -- if required. They amazed the Krauts. Even before the Ukrainian announcement, I figured that (military) history was repeating. It took no insight -- no Big Brains. One of Putin's biggest problems: Ukrainians think like Russians, have the same recent history -- largely -- and studied the same military theories. Neither side can get a mental jump over the other. This is why Putin's invasion was a terrible idea -- and why things have turned into a grapple -- with tanks.
2
@behroozkhaleghirad My track record of correct prediction is actually pretty scary -- because it's been so accurate. I've been at the 'game' for half-a-century -- with a slew of "amazings" to my credit. As the weeks roll by, Ukraine is becoming a de facto NATO military. The West has (largely) run out of Soviet designed weapons to shift into Ukraine. (Yes, a trickle still is coming in.) But the G7 are unified in opposition to Putin -- to include his former buddies, Olaf and Macron. They've seen enough, had enough. They also have empty cupboards to draw from. Not so, the USA. In four-weeks, Kyiv is going to have four times as many MLRS tubes facing Putin. Even the pitiful amounts that he's facing now, are ruining his ammo dumps. It's pretty bad when the RA is driven off of Snake Island - by a handful of NATO standard howitzer rounds. Yes, it was artillery that did the job. Putin couldn't stop them from dropping in to say, "Get out!"
2
@josephkush1032 In strategic defense the essence is the body count. Attackers -- especially in WWI (infantry+artillery fighting) the attacker always lost more than the defender -- even though the attacker had a staggering artillery advantage. Trenches save lives. For a while there, the UA was in a dream location. They had Putin charging ahead -- Stalingrad style -- while their artillery observers could look down from on high -- the God's eye view. In the few historical cases where that happened in WWII, the attackers were bled white. ( Rapido River, Monte Cassino ) Of course, once the RA flanked the Ukrainian position (from the south) the only thing to do was to pull out -- to retreat west to the next defensive line. In WWI, bizarre stats arose: 1,000 dead to advance the front ten-meters. That kind of crazy stuff. There is a massive artillery cross-fire going on across the southwest front. Something's afoot. Kyiv is now hitting Russian assets DEEP behind the lines -- this is new. MLRS rockets aren't cheap -- but neither are helicopters or jet aircraft. Ouch.
2
In the next iteration, the UA will employ mini-(Gatling)-guns. These are jam-proof and use multiple barrels. [3 or 6] (They can be spin-cooled, without firing, too.) They can be sped up or slowed down -- at will.
2
@amanda72ist If they had 'em -- they'd Telegram 'em. PDQ, too.
2
Smoke does not blind artificial eyes... the ones used in the modern military.
2
@markv3560 Putin has a major logistical headache -- he does not have enough trucks. His crew is advancing to a battle zone that is not connected by his railroad network. The Krauts, eight-years ago, did extremely well in the summertime. Then, the Reds played pure defense. Every time that Stalin violated this maxim, his armies were sliced and diced by panzers. If I were the sitting in Kyiv, I'd be pretty pleased over many things. The sloth in Western aid would not be one of them. At some point, Western aid is actually going to be meaningful. The West won't be able to stop themselves.
1
@nerdyali4154 The infamous slave trade was initiated, centuries ago, by Portugal. Brazil is one result.
1
I think so, too, Neritan.
1
Behrooz -- the Russians are lying -- again.
1
Worldwise -- Ukraine has slightly over 100 generals in its army. No WAY would half of them have a confab anywhere but Kyiv. Then, to top off the bizarre claim, Moscow reports that 10 M777 were also destroyed. Everything I've read indicates that the UA refuses to allow M777s -- or anything else -- to become concentrated.
1
@catfishfortesque-smythe437 At 30km -- the bridge is within the range of Caesar, PH2000 and even Krabs, IIRC. Even base-bleed rounds can cover such a distance.
1
@farzana6676 That's what I've advocated. Mere base-bleed shells will have the range -- and are cheap enough to toss with abandon. I don't know if the UA is gutsy enough to bring their Caesar or PH2000 close enough to the front such that they can reach these key targets without even using base-bleed rounds. For some reason the railroad bridge across the lower Dnieper never seems to come up in convos. The railroad grid is easily seen on most maps -- typically as a white line. (Look for the graphic that crosses the Dnieper dam.) This second rail line crosses the Kerkhnya Konka river -- and then the Dnieper river. The KK river is about 35 meters wide. So, at scale, it disappears from sight. The Dnieper is about 1,300 meters across for both rail and road -- downstream of the dam. I suspect that Kyiv high command will find it easier and more effective to destroy the approaches to the railroad bridges. Trains just have to have rails. It's easy, these days, to just keep ruining the rails -- even while keeping any repair crews at bay. (Drones!) I think the Russians are in an impossible situation. I think the only reason that Kyiv has not already crushed them: Zelenskyy is still building out a million man army.
1
@bittripper3530 The Iranians found that a factory in Syria had an easier time sourcing imported components... which is why they set one up. You can bet that all original bills of lading showed Beirut as the destination. Cute. Do remember that Iran also used Syria for its atomic program, too. The IDF had to put it out of business. When Jerusalem discovered the scheme -- they were shocked -- as anyone would expect such a top secret program to be built out inside Iran. For Tehran, Assad is just a tool.
1
@escaped1534 Those are Russian stats. Moscow has lied so often, so beautifully, that there is no way that I can trust its BS. Your post cites impossibly high counts, BTW.
1
@S.999-w2h You didn't drink the koolaid? What kind of follower are you ?
1
Events are NOT going Zelenskyy's way. The Russian army is advancing while the Norks are dying. They are just meat.
1
Freak... this war is WWI 2.0 --> it's not a war of movement. (WW2) The only metric that counts is casualties... with the wounded being more significant than the dead. For, the wounded walk the streets bitching about their missing limbs. In an attritional war, the front barely moves --> and then the world caves in. ( 1918, Western Front of Imperial Germany)
1
@myteebrown7876 Where does that brain fart come from ?
1
I'd suspect base-bleed ammo. It's drastically cheaper, available, and able to reach the bridge.
1
@albinklein7680 Putin is managing to lose even MORE. Such is war. It's a lose-lose 'solution.'
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@phuckyu3383 France sent in (18) Caesars -- and Macron just promised Zelenskyy another (6) machines. If they've survived, which is pretty likely, then the total is rising to (24) machines. I figure that Caesar is highly survivable because it does not need to be anywhere near the front. Both Caesar and Archer can shoot and scoot in no-time-flat. It would be the wildest stroke of luck to hit one. The Russian Air Force has proven that it can't hit moving targets. It also does not send out big strike packages. (It always attacks in ones and twos.) Putin's most effective deep weapons are his long range missiles. But they can't hit moving targets. Some Ukrainian traitor would have to geo-locate a Caesar while it's in its barn. If a cell phone is used, that traitor is toast. I figure that the M777 becomes vulnerable because the troops are not displacing quickly enough. They get carried away. By now, I'm sure that the word is out: three-four shots -- and its ALWAYS time to move on. I know something's screwy when I see substantial howitzer pits -- manually dug. What a mistake. That much effort induces the firing crews to hang around. Ukraine needs to STOP digging howitzer pits manually. Only backhoes should be employed. By machine, howitzer pits should be cut-in all over the countryside. Lay in some dummy howitzers. Have so many prepared pits that the game turns into 3-card monte.
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@phuckyu3383 My numbers come from Ukrainian and French officialdom. From what I've read, these are all brand new machines. Yes, they didn't even come out of storage. The first (18) were supposed to go to Morocco, IIRC. (They were awaiting shipment -- which I take to mean: payment.) It was only at the last second that Macon intervened and had them sent to Ukraine. [ Morocco and Algeria don't like each other.] Macron promised (6) more Caesars the last time he visited Zelenskyy. The (French) Press cranked out a video showing (3) Caesars in action a few weeks back. During that video, the French made sure that the existence of (18) machines in Ukrainian service came out. Since the broadcaster was, and is, the French government's mouthpiece (it's state owned) I figure that this video amounts to Paris bragging. I'd rate each Caesar as having thrice the net combat effect of an M777 howitzer. It does not need a howitzer pit. I can't imagine how Russia can find and destroy one. Both Caesar and Archer (Sweden) are mighty new designs and can be declared state-of-the-art. The M109 is old in chassis -- but up-graded so often -- with so many variants -- that you can say it's been in continuous improvement for decades. The moment Russian counter-battery threats are eliminated, these machines will magnify Ukraine's artillery concentrations. I'm amazed that the M198 is not in the picture. The USA has so many looking for something to do. Like the M109, they will weigh in only after Russian counter-battery assets are dealt with. Putin is facing an exponential rise in Ukrainian artillery assets. Lastly, it's not announced, but you can figure the US is ramping up the production of 152mm ammo. As you might imagine, the US DoD has more ammo capacity than any other nation on Earth. 96% of that capacity has been off-line => in mothballs. The flood WILL come, it will come by ship.
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@Jimunu Denys.
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@blazunlimited Denys.
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@Jimunu Check him out. Then clarify your postings.
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@joeo2533 You've been watching FSB disinformation operations. Chechens are famed for such barbarities.
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@joeo2533 You can't torture the dead. Chechens are famed for torture. As for 'playing with enemy dead' -- it has an ancient history. The US Army prohibits it. It blows back as very bad military relations. As for attrocities, Putin promoted the sinning battalion up to Guards status. This is a Big Deal in the Russian Army. All Guards units get better treatment (barracks) -- the works. Such an honor beats a Presidential Citation. Video of Russians gunning down civilians -- and much more -- has gone viral. I rather doubt that Skynews ever broadcast the nasty stuff you post of. Western Media are uniformly loathe to portray the dead. Period. And Skynews has to be deemed totally in the tank for Kyiv. So, I just don't believe you.
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@joeo2533 Broadcasters have standards. It is taboo to broadcast the dead. Any broadcaster that does so is going to be in hot water with the licensing authorities. It wouldn't matter if the event actually happened. So, I figure you've been duped... duped by Moscow ? You are obviously equating the victim with the attacker. This is a meme that Moscow has pushed from the first.
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The bulk of RA supplies are coming by rail. So don't over-estimate the strategic impact of this strike. However, the psychological impact on the Russian occupiers inside Crimea has to be vast. The last illusion of normalcy has to have been destroyed. Asking their civilians to run a gauntlet -- what a come-down.
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I don't see an evacuation -- I see mass deportation. As long as the ferries and pontoon elements are crammed with Ukrainians -- the UA is paralyzed. Cute. Putin is calling the shots -- and clearly intends to use a meat-wall to shield his invasion crew. He's clearly doing that in the Luhansk oblast -- right now.
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@traumflug Holding such farces in the middle of a war zone -- Putin has utterly lost his mind. Everything about these frauds appears to be coming directly from Putin. Obviously he intends to expand his border even has he's losing his war of conquest. I believe that this is the first instance of such a gambit in history.
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@icexvi2573 That's not how things work out. In WWII, all combatant nations got very, very good at regenerating crippled units. So, while it's news to you -- all modern generals know the drill. The US Army had to regenerate its airborne divisions after every single drop, every single major operation. It never took months. The new boys had already been through state-side training. So they were in great physical shape and knew their weapons, their gear. It only took three-weeks to integrate them into their assigned division. Famously, the Krauts could regenerate divisions from nubs in less than six-weeks. (!) This ability is why Nazi Germany was able to hang on as long as it did. But the absolute masters of generating new combat units must have been the Red Army. The Bolsheviks had a scheme that just cranked out green divisions like they were hatched. The rest of their training came by way of OJT at the front. This goes double for tank troops. History has recorded the result. Zelenskyy has obviously been 'blooding' his green brigades in quiet sectors -- the military tradition in all armies. I'd say that Kyiv has at least ten brigades ready to shift east. They'll probably arrive on the sly -- one by one. It would be absolutely classic for Kyiv to promote this or that brigade up to divisional size. (The USSR did this for all of its tank brigades in the middle of WWII, yes, on the fly.) Once a cadre of talents is clicking, it's actually institutionally easy to flesh out an outfit with more warriors. Famously, the LAH SS brigade expanded through the war to such a degree that it became a panzer corps by 1945. It spawned a slew of buddy divisions, too... on top of its own growth. The limiting factor for such growth is talent among the officers and sergeants... with the latter particularly important. Ukraine has sergeants -- Russia only has fake instant sergeants. Consequently, the regeneration power of the UA will astound.
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This counter-offensive has captured at least one Lt. Colonel. He's on video. He's not a happy fellow. Zelenskyy wants PoWs so as to have exchangeable bodies for those in Russian captivity. The latest prisoners all appear to be White Russians -- from the heartland of Moscovy.
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Putin is throwing fresh meat in front of the UA. One is reminded of Typhoon, late 1941, in front of Moscow.... But in this case, Putin is throwing away men to defend mere farmland. Northern Luhansk is not all that strategic for Putin... which is why it only rates instant soldiers. BTW, the Kherson oblast pocket is falling apart. Morale there is shot. It can't be long before the UA dominates the Dnipro crossings with ordinary artillery. When that happens, the Russians will be learning to swim.
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@katrinapaton5283 Generals NEVER disdain their own victories. They always have critics, though. Bradley 'owns' the Hurtgen Forest campaign -- yet never brought it up -- much -- in his own war bios. He's not alone. Not one of the WWII era top commanders ever uttered a word even mildly critiquing his own army,... or his own performance. Such is the way of generalship. I don't care WHAT Pultarch attributed to Pyrrhus, you just KNOW that the line came from fellow Greeks (think politicians) upon hearing the results from the field. (Pyrrhus just killed recruitment into the ranks. It was hell to field a second, replacement, army. ) There were (2) two infamous battles... blood baths, both. Back home, his critics began howling after his first debacle. Such heavy, heavy losses were a total novelty for Greece. You can bet the boys on the spot were bitter, too. These battles were months apart, BTW. Well, at least Pyrrhus became famous.
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I'm still seeing alternate realities WRT the Zolote pocket across the Internet. The fog of war is intense. It's also interesting that various, pretty well researched, Internet posters have alternate front lines, too. The US has announced that another (4) HIMARS are authorized -- and on the way -- presumably by air. Germany insists that PH2000s have entered Ukraine. We await video. In all cases: Caesar, PH2000, M270, M142, M109, M777 -- the numbers are just too small. Ukraine needs artillery battalions -- not artillery platoons.
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The full-on PANIC seen in the footage (above) echoes that of Cobra (1944), Bagration (1944), and Barbarossa (1941) --> Meaning that we're likely to see the RA pull back about 500 km when this is all said and done. Think Sevastopol. In the time of Javelin and NLAW, Russian counter-attacks with tanks just can't work. Where is the Russian air force ? Theoretically, there should be a storm of air combat over the battlefront. Drones have -- apparently -- entirely replaced manned flying machines. (!)
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Kyiv has shifted over to attritional warfare -- as against maneuver warfare. (panzer warfare) Armchair generals miss the fact that the RA is being bled white. That's what counts. Putin absolutely does NOT have infinite manpower for his project. He's now using convicts as cannon fodder -- same as Wagner did. Attritional warfare is resolved when the loser runs out of men and stuff. Thus, you have Lee losing to Grant in 1865; Germany losing to France, Britain and America in 1918. Forever on end, nothing seems to move -- and then the front finally collapses -- and the government falls. Putin has pulled entire armies away from Finland, Red China, ... and the 'stans. He can't do that twice. Continuous conscription has crippled his economy -- so in the years ahead, Russia's demographic crisis will be acute. Whereas Zelenskyy has been building his army ever larger -- all this time.
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@harissuta1280 The UA is using both manpower and machine power to dig trenches. September is not a problem. Mud traditionally begins in October and may last into most of November. That's when all offensive action grinds to a slurry. The fact is obvious and open: Putin has run out of infantry. He's actually pretty well set for tanks and artillery -- if 1950s warfare techniques still work. With no micro-chips in production, Putin is simply screwed. The UA has already destroyed the cream of Putin's crew. This happened to the Nazis in 1941. Barbarossa could never be repeated.
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@harissuta1280 The RA is out of infantry. Hence its tactics. They minimize infantry requirements. The UA is now about 700,000 in size -- though vast numbers lack military gear. That stuff is still flowing in. So long as the UA artillery is having a field day blowing up Putin's ammo dumps, Kyiv sees no need to actually climb out of the trenches. The Kherson oblast is toast. The Russians there have the same supply nightmare that did in 6th Army at Stalingrad -- eighty-years ago. For the Krauts, they still received air deliveries. For the Russians, they still have a ferry or two. Putin is screwed. He's about to lose 35,000 troops -- and he dares not call up levée en masse. All of his ready reserves are working -- right now -- as his internal security force. The few times these goons have showed up in Ukraine -- they've become the laughing stock of the Russian troops nearby.
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@kartikeyatiwari2502 It was announced by Zelenskyy. That's when Denys brought the prospect up.
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@navinkumar6388 Putin has been sanctioned because he's a serial murderer, serial liar, and serial warmonger. But, he is a fan of Steven Seagal. So, there's that.
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@kartikeyatiwari2502 I brought up Zelenskyy because he DID go public with the notion. So, Denys was quite right to bring it up, too. As for why nothing has happened: that's easy. The UA is so happy shooting up the RA -- as it stands -- that it can't justify leaving its trenches. The UA does know that the Kherson position northwest of the Dnipro is but an echo of 6th Army at Stalingrad. For those lost souls, an airlift was undertaken. It was a fiasco. For the Russians, aircraft have been replaced by a pathetic ferry or two. These have even less capacity than the bygone Luftwaffe. It's a good thing that the Russians in the pocket are only one-tenth the number of those bagged near Stalingrad. The UA keeps banging away -- destroying ever smaller ammo dumps in the Kherson cauldron. They are smaller because Putin can't feed his boys what they need to attack. At this rate, the cauldron will not even be able to defend itself. The last time the Russians had to counter-attack -- they threw in their air force (Su-25s) instead. The ground pounders didn't have enough stopping power. At some point soon, the UA will have enough tactical SAM effectiveness to thwart Russian air force intervention at the front. Then disaster must follow.
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@kartikeyatiwari2502 You ought to be a student of WWI. In that bloodbath, the front scarcely changed -- for years on end -- and then the German position simply fell apart. Spanish flu had wiped out the German army -- even as it wiped out the British, French and American armies. The flu ended WWI fighting. (It was taboo to publish anything during that period about the devastation of the flu. So every last history of WWI is totally warped.) As for the Kherson counter-offensive... it appears that it has already begun. But neither side is willing to release the Big News. Videos have now hit the Web showing abandoned Russian front line positions in the Kherson oblast. Interestingly enough, these are ABANDONED positions -- not those won by traditional assault. Similar pull-backs occurred as 6th Army shrunk its perimeter -- eighty-years ago. Day by day, the UA has been dropping grenades from modest drones onto Russian trenches -- and more. Many, many videos uploaded every day about this tactic. The Russians totally lost the drone war -- because its driven by micro-chips. Both Russia and Ukraine have to import these. But Putin has a very hard time/ impossible situation getting the latest stuff. There is footage -- so recent -- of Russians losing their drone to the UA -- in mid-flight. It had been hacked... even though the Russians made serious attempts to stop such a penetration. There are endless examples of the Russians not comprehending opsec mistakes. The RA is simply getting destroyed -- in place -- without infantry assault. So long as this is happening, the UA is quite content to just sit back and attack... with drones.
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@kartikeyatiwari2502 NATO is not a combatant in this war. LPR boys are already refusing further combat -- on the grounds that doing so would entail leaving the LPR. Videos of the personal gear being given to the front by Putin have hit the Web. Laughter has been the result. Troops are entering combat with plastic helmets -- sold from Red China -- intended for teenage games fought with air pistols. Metal helmets turn out to be so feeble that you can dent them with a strong, bare-handed, punch... or head butt! 'Combat boots' turn out to be athletic shoes -- especially common for DPR & LPR canon fodder. What's been happening is that Kyiv has gotten used to Putin gracefully withdrawing his armies -- as 'goodwill gestures.' Heh. Well, at least Russian generals have the good sense to pull out of impossible situations. The RA in the Kherson oblast have already begun abandoning their hopeless front line positions -- with videos upload to the Web showing some pretty sloppy digs. I've come to the conclusion that Putin has lost this Drone War. The UA is just plinking his troops into submission. Trenches are unable to stop drone dropped grenades -- which are generating casualties -- but not fatalities. Russian surgeons must be operating like mad to pull out shrapnel -- over and over.
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@kartikeyatiwari2502 It's been no time at all -- and the World has been put on notice, the UA counter-offensive is now everywhere on social media. One is reminded of the break up of 6th Army -- eighty-years ago. The Reds had 6th Army surrounded for weeks -- and yet it hung on. Of course, it's fate was sealed way back in December... if not November. (1942) The UA has popped the Russian front line -- rather thoroughly. Lacking meaningful supplies, (artillery shells/ rockets/ Diesel fuel) the RA is understandably de-moralized. A military collapse tends to be self-reinforcing -- just as civil revolution are. The word is that Putin can barely keep a lid on Moscow and St. Petersburg.
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@kartikeyatiwari2502 I'll take that bet. Turn on the news, tonight.
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@harissuta1280 The required counter-offensive is now in full swing. Turn on the news. Glad to help.
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@harissuta1280 nope Russian social media posts show troops bewailing their situation.
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@harissuta1280 By now there are hundreds of posts to social media showing the drubbing the RA is taking in Kherson oblast. The boys there are trapped -- same as 6th Army at Stalingrad, eighty-years ago. As the UA advances, even its tube artillery will come to bear on the Dnipro. Putin is sacking Shoigu. 'Nuff said. In the east, the RA can barely advance. Putin is at his wits end. He's calling up 137,000 more troops -- who will not answer his call. Life is tough all over. The social media posts by Russians from the Kherson oblast simply crush any desire by noobs to join the disaster. Soon, even Russian 'bots will give it up.
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@mirba6933 Social media shows the RA in flight. The front line had been held by LPR and DPR bullet stoppers. Obviously, Putin wants Zelenskyy to feed them from now on. In these kinds of offensives, the tempo is usually slowed by the number of surrendering fellas. Just open any military history. The story ever repeats. At the end of WWII in the West, GIs (in squad strength) had to accept the surrender of regiments. Military protocols had been reduced to farce. The few GIs that spoke German simply had to point to where the chow line was -- some place further west. It was good that it happened during Spring time. The US Army wasn't quite ready with enough tents and cots. Just bringing up the chow was quite a battle. ( German late-war logistics had completely broken down. They weren't even feeding their own troops. Later on in 1945, the US Army had to panic feed the entire German nation.) Plunging temperatures across Ukraine simply has to motivate Russians to surrender. For who would want to fight during the up coming rain season ?
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@mirba6933 You have a point. However... I can't believe that the whole world would do so, on no notice, just to make Zelenskyy look good. There are well over a hundred videos wandering around Telegram, TikTok, YT.... And they all have the same thrust. It's blatantly apparent that Putin placed LPR and DPR boys along the very front line -- and that they -- pretty much -- dropped their rifles. All along, the LPR & DPR guys wanted no part of western Ukraine... and have been giving Putin headaches every step of the way. He even has a rebellion way back in the east, because LPR boys figure that their war is over. The so-called LPR no longer has any UA soldiers on its turf. The DPR boys can't figure out why they are so far west... especially when the DPR still has UA troops inside it. Over and over, Putin's bots and trolls have asserted victories and captures that have always turned out to be hollow. Thwarting the UA at this time will prove to be just as phony. Cope.
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@kartikeyatiwari2502 The word is now coming back. Putin is considering giving up Kherson as a goodwill gesture -- already. He finally accepts that defending on the southeast bank of the Dnipro makes far, far more sense. One problem, the boys will need to leave ALL of their gear on the northwest side. Putin will have to stump up replacements for everything. Yet an insider (Russian officer) has spilled the beans: at the current tempo, Putin will entirely run out of gear in six-months. The NATO/EU sanctions regime is totally hamstringing new production. Social media posts are showing UA forces advancing through the wheat -- totally un-thwarted. Other posts demonstrate that the sounds of battle are creeping in toward Kherson, itself.
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@kartikeyatiwari2502 Not much. How dire is your situation ? The RA is falling apart -- and thus you wax ad hominem. Cute. You're not 'killing it.' It's killing you. The readership is LOL.
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@kartikeyatiwari2502 Honey -- you've totally lost -- and lost it. LOL.
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@harissuta1280 Swell. It's obvious that Putin has hit the panic button -- hence the stream of trucks attempting ferry crossings. The UA is, of course, hitting the ferry landings -- though Putin has been doing his 'thing' to get the ammo across the water.
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@harissuta1280 The Kremlin is now bragging about counter-attacks retaking villages that -- yesterday -- the Kremlin asserted had never been lost. So much for Moscow credibility. It's in shreds -- on the floor. Now just cope. As for UA casualties -- they must surely be up... right along with RA casualties. The kicker is that the RA is still isolated in the Kherson oblast. The UA is having a field day shooting up bridges and ferries. EIghty-years ago the Luftwaffe was shredded as it attempted to supply 6th Army. For at least the first four-weeks, the Krauts hung tough, thinking that 57th Corps would punch through. It never did -- of course. Then the 6th Army hung on in despair. The bottom finally fell out nine-weeks into the campaign. In the tenth-week, the Krauts were out of horses, out of luck, out of time. Done. That epic defeat is seen by all historians as THE critical reversal for the Nazis. Well, Putin has gone Adolf. There's no doubting that. And like his mentor, he's taken over command of his invasion -- rather directly. It shows. Ahh... the master's touch. Putin is frantically training a new corps -- some place east of Moscow. Let's say it's 20,000 strong. If so, it'll barely be enough to replace the souls lost in the pocket. Some coincidence, no ? Putin has not choice but to replace the lost corps trapped in the pocket. That's what the new trainees are all about. They'll be either sent to the southeast bank of the Dnipro -- or -- (Putin's fantasy) to Donetz. Either way, figure on these boys arriving just in time for the rain to turn Ukraine into a mud bath. The UA needs to do it's thing by early October, too. So, I'd say they are motivated. The buzz is that the RA has lost 3,000 men as casualties, POWs and KIA... so far. NASA heat maps show UA counter-battery fires lighting up the RA -- especially up north. The UA is now claiming ~80 freshly dead tanks. Somehow, that stat seems low. That's only two BTGs worth.
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@harissuta1280 The photos are simply all over social media. The Russians are low on INFANTRY. That's Putin's big hang up: infantry. BTW, when the Krauts were bagged at Stalingrad, Berlin didn't rush out and deliver the bad news. The fact remains -- ever -- that the Kherson pocket is out of communication (military speak) with its support. A few ferry trips are totally insufficient. Now, just cope. Putin is raising a new corps -- because he has to.
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That helicopter photo is a Kremlin con job. It's been debunked on Polish TV. Note the total lack of troops or equipment anywhere around the machines -- both of them. From another angle, it becomes obvious that this is stock footage -- or a scene fabricated in Mother Russia -- far from the front. The Russians don't DARE use such a magnificent machine anywhere near UA ManPADs. An MI-26 goes for Big Bucks, too.
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@romeufrancisco7041 Yet, weirdly, this is the Rainy Season. The Dnipro is getting recharged at a tremendous rate by Mother Nature. The moment of decision: when the UA can get within artillery range of the Dnipro -- with conventional tube artillery -- not just GMLRS. Moscow has figured -- as anyone would -- that the boys will totally crack when that happens. The UA is shattering Putin's veteran formations -- who are now just shadows of their original TO&E. It is FALSE that Putin has steady formations northwest of the Dnipro.
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You skipped past the fact that the Kherson oblast pocket can't last long enough for Putin's boys to arrive. It's entirely likely that the front will collapse before any serious numbers show up. Putin's 3rd Corps seems to have evaporated -- it was supposed to change everything. It was the last gasp of first rate Russian military equipment. Now, everything will be ex-Soviet iron.
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That's my 'take.' The dispositions available to us can't be honest. Nothing is in war. I could imagine a token force holding the fort while the brigade displaces. That's standard military practice. In such a case, the Russians would be (rightly) afraid to take the hill -- because they're right under M-777 guns -- directed and corrected by observation -- drone or long eyes. Someone is messing with YT code. My post belongs to gojokid 24 not sipan yin. Yet it repeatedly miss-posts -- corn fusing any reader.
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@gjk282 It's official. They're OUT.
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@moshdude8444 They've been pulling guys out, day by day. That's how it's done. As for moving a reduced brigade over night -- you must be kidding. Military history is FULL of such shifts. If you think that noise will give the game away -- it doesn't. All of the shelling ruins every trooper's hearing.
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@josephkush1032 Zelenskyy had called for a general retreat DAYS ago. Putin's nightmare is that he has no path to victory. Absolutely no-one will negotiate with him. He's talking to the wind -- and breaking it.
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@pepito281scorpion9 To me, the war is in a total state of flux. Other than Putin has blown it -- totally -- I don't have a 'fix' on how things will play out. I do know that all dictators have glass jaws. They can deal out punishment -- but cannot take any. That's why Putin & Coy went ballistic over Kaliningrad. Lithuania was hurting his pride. Remember, at all times, Putin is so narcissistic that no morals apply to him. Like a two-year-old, what's his -- is his; what's yours -- is his. There are simply no end of posters who agree with his strong-arm conqueror ethos. They don't have enough brain or study to realize that in the 21st Century an aggressor nation has to get the assent of all critical counter-parties. Otherwise, they'll co-ordinate against him. Napoleon was the first tyrant to establish the dynamic in modern times. He was the first to put an entire nation under arms. (Levée en Masse) He could do this because French mathematicians had solved statistics as a discipline. Previously, monarchs did not how many boys were hiding from the draft in this or that village or county/shire. Now, Napoleon did. It's my belief that at some point, Putin is quite likely to take his escalation all the way up the scale -- Nikita, style. He's figuring on Biden to blink, to cave. But, Biden is not the decision maker. What Putin clearly does not know is that the USA runs best when its president is on automatic pilot. FDR had suffered so many micro-strokes that he was a dead-man-rolling from late 1943 until he died. All during that period, the US was run by a collective leadership -- with the Pentagon in almost total control of policy. It was George Marshall who selected the stop line for Eisenhower's armies... not any civilian authority. Biden is walking -- but a bigger basket case than FDR. Putin should really be terrified. The Big Decision won't come from Biden. It'll be made by the Pentagon, itself. (Based on the historical record) Unlike Nikita, I seriously question Putin's ability to crawl back down in the face of doom. Like Adolf, he's the kind of fellow who'll crack-up first. You KNOW he has a very, very dark view of the World, and everyone in it. He has all the levity of a mortician. No wonder his skin crawls thinking about Zelenskyy.
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@josephkush1032 You need spell check in a major way. As to why you're cross-posting from your gardening blog -- 'tis hard to figure.
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@josephkush1032 Sheesh. LOL.
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@denismorgan9742 Such a blockade can't be underway -- as such a naval blockade would be a casus belli -- Putin would howling to his nation -- and open warfare would've commenced. Why blockade Kaliningrad and not St. Petersburg -- or Vladivostok ? Your assertion can't be correct. WWV would already be escalating away. Further, Lithuania wouldn't be allowing ANY rail transport under your scenario.
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Putin has a glass jaw. You'd know that if you'd studied Dictators 101 in college. A dictator has to win BIG to win at all. Small victories actually amount to defeats. Napoleon brought this up more than once. For him, Borodino (1812) was a disaster. He needed another Austerlitz.(1805) Oops! Adolf was in the same boat. France 1940 was terrific. Britain in 1940 stunk. Then he jumped off the deep end: Barbarossa 1941. Barbarossa WAS an attempt to Win Big... and compensate for the fiasco over Britain. But he didn't win BIG. Typhoon blew back on him. (December, 1941)
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@relaxingsounds4821 We are the USA. We bail Europeans out of fiascos with one tyrant after another -- decade after decade. Europe has never known peace until the US Army arrived. As for hatred: Europeans STILL hold animus towards the folks right over the hill. The Genovese still hate the Venicians, Florentines, et. al -- and vice versa. You are a quite the oracle of Moscow Central -- I'll give you that.
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@Mister_Greek-q8w If Kyiv high command can drive Putin away from his southern sweep -- it will be the end for him -- politically -- back in Moscow. His political castration is how Ukraine wins its war. Kharkiv is a first class fiasco for Putin. He simply does not have enough infantry to conquer major cities. EVERY single time Putin ratchets up his aggression, the West ratchets up its response. Previously, the West was not sending Kyiv the latest and best -- taking the trick digital electronics off of M777s -- for example. Now, all of that stuff is being provided. The flow of aid is so great that it can't travel by air. So, there's a lag as it floats across the pond. Today's ships carry as much cargo as an entire WWII convoy. (When speed is factored in.) In the meantime, Putin's two largest tank factories are on hiatus. Yup. No Western imports. No wonder T-62s start to look 'modern' - heh.
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@moshdude8444 AND... they surrendered unconditionally to the United Nations. But, they STILL want it back. When the RF breaks apart -- something that Putin has made inevitable -- the Japanese will leap north even quicker than Red China. Red China will, of course, take back Siberia. Indeed, the PLA has ALREADY been war gaming such a move. Putin was notified. He was furious. Xi was just not clever enough to hide the exercise. Those two are just a load of laughs.
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@hudhinton1880 You're crazy. Congress LOVES to spend money. $40,000,000,000 is chicken feed for the US Congress. That money is going to be spent -- overwhelmingly -- inside the USA. Lend-Lease is destined to expand exponentially. Berlin pledges to spend $100,000,000,000 -- to the US -- that's almost a rounding error. That's how staggeringly large the US is -- how wealthy it is. It's the global superpower many reasons. This is one of them.
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The UA is just picking the RA apart. That's the game plan. Movement is secondary to destructive fires. This is the dynamic of drone warfare -- an echo of World War One, the stationary slaughter.
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The Krauts were able to hang-up the Anglo-American offensive across the Rhine for WEEKS -- by playing the river level card. It didn't change anything, of course. All during the hiatus, the Anglo-Americans simply piled up equipment, ammo, troops. Putin is racing against Mud Season. The RA psychology has totally changed. Now, Putin is trying to stave off a total fiasco. But, the loss of an entire corps, 25,000 men, is certain. Putin won't even allow the boys to flee. If history is any guide, the total count will exceed all expectation.
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@skromee The S400 is mobile -- but not THAT mobile.
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The highway bridge is only 30 kilometers from the front line. This means that it's in range of Caesar and PH2000 howitzers. Rockets are thus, a waste. If the Russians really CAN hit anything with their S-400 system -- they'll go broke shooting at 155m rounds. The Russians have lied so often that I can't accept ANY of Moscow's assertions. Verification is required. IMHO, they are lying -- again. The radar returns from any American MLRS missile will be tiny, too tiny to deal with via a SAM. The only Russian defense asset that could possibly work would be a CIWS type Gatling gun. I've read that the Russians have their version of this war machine. It would be firing blind into a pre-calculated arc of descent. (Spent slugs would be raining down all over Kherson, so... stay indoors.) The Russians would have to cobble up some anti-artillery radars to dope out whence the rockets came. The Ukrainian style is to launch missiles, one after the other. By missile three, the arc, and the timing, would be evident to counter-battery radars. I seriously doubt that the Russians can stop the first rockets. As stated, the UA is going to have to shift to Caesar. Two-rounds, and its gone.
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@viktorviktorski183 It's 1,300 meters wide at Kherson.
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Nope. Totally wrong. Kyiv is practicing fluid defense. BTW, Zelenskyy is raising a million man army. Even the loss of 5,000 men is actually nothing compared to the stakes... And Russia is actually capturing empty space. The UA has left the salient. The heavy equipment left days ago. That's exactly why the salient collapsed so quickly. The UA simply left -- mostly overnight.
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Moscow Command has to be blindingly optimistic. The Dnipro effectively cuts off the Russians -- same as if they were encircled -- almost. Drone warfare means that it's logistically impossible to send materials across the Dnipro without drawing Ukrainian fires. Kherson is lost. This reversal of fortune is sure to have repercussions back in Moscow. Putin is gaining inches -- and losing yards. His entire 'victory-on-the-slow' narrative will collapse.
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Putin's crisis is in INFANTRY -- and not much else. But this is a critical deficiency. Without infantry, no army can hold a front, no army can clear complex ground. Putin's infantry shortage is so extreme that he's brought in // bought in mercs and fools. The UA keeps claiming astounding enemy (infantry) losses -- which outsiders find hard to believe. But, they should. Said losses are among Separatist infantry who face compelled conscription back home. They are cannon fodder// bullet stoppers. Putin is using Ukrainians to fight Ukrainians -> straight out of Stalin's playbook. ( See: penal battalion function, WWII - Suvorov, et. al. )
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GT500 CNN is a joke -- same as TASS or Pravda. Everyone knows it.
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@meshzzizk Putin's boys ARE using Western microchips -- commercial grade microchips -- typically from Siemens -- who has cut Putin off. No-one disputes that Putin has a staggering stash of dumb munitions. It's the reason that his artillery is firing off so intensely. His crisis is in infantry. You can visit Perun here on YT to get a one-hour, blow-by-blow on how Putin's infantry crisis is playing out. Forget the talking-head idiots on the small screen. It's gotten to the point that young women are proffered as military experts. (!!!) Yes, that's actually happened. The Western MSM is that 'woke.' I expect teenagers to be sourced as a fount of wisdom any day, now. RAND Corp. is on record that 80% of Putin's stash of smart weapons have been expended. Putin's crew is now down to improvising solutions -- like slapping a TOR SAM onto the helipad of a cruiser. Cute. All in all, too much for Putin's bots and boys.
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@jeff-sp1fy Why? Lend-Lease means that a LOT more money will be on the way. So, abandoning Kyiv is not ever going to happen. BTW, American politicians ALWAYS get their 'cut.' So, their grifting does not affect policy. It is Macron and Scholz that wish to cut and run. The very thought of subsidizing Kyiv for the next five-decades -- upon its entry into the EU -- has them gagging. For the UK and US, EU membership for Ukraine does not touch their purses. As for NATO, now that Putin has invaded for conquest, the financial floodgates have gone full-open. Keep in mind, that the vast bulk of Lend-Lease aid is spent inside the USA. It just becomes a bump in America's DoD budget -- as a practical manner. American military gear is sourced across the entire nation -- as a matter of politics and grift. As long as Putin is shooting and raping civilians in Ukraine, there is no chance that Lend-Lease funding will be curtailed. It will ONLY ramp up. The weapons permitted will ONLY ramp up. The quantity permitted will ONLY ramp up. And then, totally new stuff will be engineered. The Latin-Cyrillic monogram business is about to explode. So many weapons, so many labels.
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@andrehunter1295 You've totally lost Putin's script. Putin DOES NOT RECOGNIZE UKRAINE. Period. He ONLY wants a deal that leaves Zelenskyy on the sidelines... as in not involved at all. Meresheimer's thesis has blown up all around him... and Putin held the plunger. You need to start an alt-history channel. With your current post, you're off to a its start.
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@Feffdc You're stating the obvious. Both Putin and Zelenskyy have been chasing after more troops since the beginning. Putin has had to shift entire mechanized corps from north to east -- something advertised globally. During WWII, Germany and the USSR sent new battalions into the fight everyday, sometimes entire divisions, corps. Zelenskyy is building (rapidly) towards a 1,000,000 man army. He has the numbers to do it. He has invoked levée en masse. Putin dares not invoke levée en masse... even though Moscow fanatics have been begging him to do so for weeks. Putin is savvy enough to know that if he did so, he'd spark a revolution -- in Moscow -- not Kyiv. Putin is Adolf, here.
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Here and there, it comes out through social media, that the UA is using local boys to bird-dog the advance of UA formations. The local boys, born and bred in just this area, know the terrain like no others. This is an impossible situation for the Russians. I have to believe that scouts// partisans are operating well to the east of the zone of active combat -- so that Kyiv high command is very well informed. The front is actually fluid. Further, the RA can't function in the existing mud -- lacking anywhere near enough full-wheel drive military trucks. The (conventional) trucks they do have -- need decent roads -- and the back roads are now turning to mush -- with videos to prove it already up on the WWW. In two more weeks, even the UA will become paralyzed. Deep mud demands helicopters or hovercraft... and neither army has any hovercraft. The UA goal at this time is to grab as many nodes as possible -- while the RA is engaged in cluster f&&k operations. At any point, the Russians up in Moscow can begin the next Revolution. It's over-due.
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@theProntoDuring WWI the solution was water jacketed barrels. Google around for photos of them. Rapid change, air-cooled, barrels were a 'new-thing' from the 1920s... the M2 Browning being a classic example. With water cooling, you do have to supply ever more water, so nothing's perfect.
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Someone has hacked -- subtly -- your YT thread. Stuff is not posting correctly.
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Zelenskyy is raising a 1,000,000 man army. He has more volunteers than he can equip. The Ukrainians are fired up. Protecting Mom, Dad, Sister, Brother and Grandparents will do that. Then throw in their girl friends -- sheesh -- the boys are fired up. Napoleon and Adolf ran into the same dynamic. No-one would surrender; no-one would negotiate; the tyrants were mobbed into defeat.
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The RA moved fast -- because the UA was retreating wholesale. I seriously doubt Moscow's claims - - any of them. Moscow has over-claimed success for every stage of their campaign. 700 heavy weapons may again prove to be a dartboard estimate. At this point, the UA has to stay with a fluid defense. Fresh brigades from the west will have to be brought up. Putin will surely bring re-built BTGs from the east. Putin clearly has an ammo problem. The UA is now hitting his dumps rather chronically.
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