David Himmelsbach
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Comments by "David Himmelsbach" (@davidhimmelsbach557) on "Why You NEED to Think Critically | Suvorov and Keitel's "Preemptive Strike" 1941 Idea" video.
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@Koelebig
Stalin was willing to sell Hitler two or three times as much oil as previously -- just to buy him off in the Summer of 41.
The negotiations were under way June 22, 1941 -- and HAD been under way for some time.
The Nazis were able to explain away their panzer concentrations along the Polish partition line as being in context: they were there to pressure Stalin into making more concessions.
Stalin totally bought that interpretation. THAT'S WHY he was so stunned June 22, 1941. He'd told his negotiating team to give away the store -- do ANYTHING to keep Hitler sated.
The CRAZY idea that Hitler's fuel situation was going the wrong way is TOTALLY WRONG.
Stalin was going to ENTIRELY solve Hitler's fuel crisis.
For starters, Stalin had lost his oil sales to France. He couldn't even get his oil out through the Mediterranean See.
[ A primer: the Baku oil was developed by John D Rockefeller way, way back when. It, the oil, was exported by way of pipelines that went from the Caspian to the Black Sea. ( The terminals were in Georgia. )
IF -- and it's a BIG IF -- Hitler could restore the Baku fields, it would make perfect sense for him to draw Soviet oil out the exact same way. As we can all appreciate, there was no way that Stalin was going to let any of the oil infrastructure stay intact for the Nazis.
The ONLY shot the Nazis had was by way of a parachute drop. His paras would have to jump at night and get the drop on the Soviet detonation teams. That's why Crete was such a pivotal battle.
Indeed, Hitler needed a parachute CORPS by this time. Such a formation was also exactly what he couldn't fuel. Airborne formations are avgas pigs. It takes about 15,000 gallons to train each paratrooper... and that's if you're a fuel miser.
Lest we forget: Ploesti oil is crappy oil. It is no where near as easy to refine as Soviet oil... or American oil. Even Iranian and Venezuelan oil was still light and sweet at this point in time. ( The heavy oils extracted today didn't get tapped until decades after WWII. )
Crappy crude oil translates into crappy octane numbers or serious losses in the refinery stream -- plus major capital expenditures. The Germans were really behind the eight-ball.
Since coal-to-liquids produced mostly middle distillate, it's astounding that Guderian ever built up the panzer force with gasoline engines. Germany had the world's best Diesel technology -- and heavy tanks were already expensive as Hell. A Diesel engine would DOUBLE its fuel economy.
Nazi Germany was an economic Clown Show: cruel, despotic, but still a total mess. Stalin permitted Hitler to get a LOT further along with his empire than he ever could've done on his own.
Soviet oil produced the bulk of the Luftwaffe's avgas. All that was necessary was distillation. ( This was also true for Texas crude. )
All other German sources of liquid fuels required INTENSE refinery processing, so much so, that Nazi Germany could never compete.
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@TIK
But Stalin DID start WWII -- all the way back in August 23, 1939.
The war was rolling right along even before Barbarossa.
We know this is true because of releases from Soviet archives. (Yeltsin)
These clearly show that it was Stalin that wrote the terms of the Nazi-Soviet Pact -- especially to include the start date of the attack and the demarcation line between Nazi spoils and Soviet spoils. Specifically, Stalin made sure that Brest-Litvosk was in Soviet possession. That alone, it may be argued, cost the Nazis victory. ( Their rail road links to the east could not be rebuilt for a solid three-weeks. The pressure was so great that work started before the fighting stopped. All during this period the Germans had to burn gasoline something crazy to shift their supplies past this bottleneck. )
Stalin pledged to invade eastern Poland on September 1st. That's what the treaty called for. He begged off with excuses for Adolf.
'His army was not able to mobilize all that fast.'
This excuse was to have fateful results when Barbarossa was contemplated. Between Poland, Finland, et. al. Stalin really sold Hitler on military ineptitude.
Instead, Stalin delayed his invasion until the Polish government fled. This fig leaf was bought hook line and sinker by the West.
(And fighting both despots at the same time was too daunting. Churchill rightly figured that there was no way that these two tyrants would not fall out within a couple of years -- if not sooner.)
Stalin proceeded to invade more nations than Adolf Hitler -- who had to play catch-up in the tyranny department -- starting April 1940.
Lest we forget, Stalin even nibbled off eastern Slovakia when Adolf swallowed up the balance of Czechoslovakia. ( He grabbed the critical eastern pass. )
Stalin managed to drive nations into the Axis that didn't even like Hitler: Hungary, Romania -- both were reluctant allies. Finland could also be put in this category, too.
1941 and the Suvorov thesis is actually irrelevant. It's all too late by 1941.
Lost in all of the rancor: FDR pledged to aid Nazi Germany if Soviet Russia attacked westward... in mid-June 1941.
That's how obvious it was to America that both sides were gearing way up to have at it.
Exactly how FDR could aid Germany if she was invaded from the east? Beats me!
I'd say that FDR was talking out of both sides of his mouth. ( A common feat for him. )
And that he always expected that the USSR would end up in the anti-Nazi camp.
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@TIK
Stalin's post-war behavior supports the thesis, in a general sense.
The problem is timing. Stalin wanted to move west only after Germany was so ripe it'd fall into his lap. THAT'S his style.
In 1941 there is NO WAY that Stalin was intending or set to move against Germany.
I figure that it'd be 1943 at the earliest before Stalin would get the itch.
All of which is why I regard Hitler's push in '41 mighty insane.
The hand you cannot bite, you must kiss.
All during this period, Hitler was NOT short of fuel -- as Stalin was supplying Germany plenty.
Forgotten by most, Hitler was stashing away Russian oil at a furious tempo -- limited only by his ability to build storage tanks -- all during the November 1939 - June 1941 period. That policy made for pretty expensive oil ... crude oil tanks don't come cheap. Once they were tapped, Germany was not able to re-fill them.
Of course, Hitler was importing every manner of strategic materials during this period.
He was absolutely crazy to attack the USSR when his strategic reserve was so pathetic.
The smart play was to just kiss Stalin's azz... and build up his navy, his panzer force... etc. But Hitler, being Hitler, just couldn't do that.
Suvorov's thesis -- was 'written from hunger.' That is, the boy needed to sell books, grab attention, get on the rubber chicken circuit. It doesn't pass the smell test.
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@Mitch ... EVERY single account has the Reds being bagged straight at the FRONT... starting with Brest-Litovsk. The Stalin Line proved to be entirely EMPTY.
Stalin ordered INSTANT counter-attacks -- with objectives deep into Nazi occupied Poland... right from the start. Whereas ANY military graduate would've insisted upon a defensive posture to channel the Germans into super-kill zones.
Red officers were totally demoralized as Stalin imposed a top-down rigid command structure. THAT was their problem. As for supplies, the Germans were astounded as to how well equipped the Reds were. So MANY tanks, so MANY guns... stuff better than their own. Namely the 76.2 field gun that could kill tanks and shoot conventional rounds.
The Reds looked weak in retrospect because Guderian had CUT OFF their routine ammunition resupply -- at the rail heads. Their few decent tanks (T-34/ KV-1) were still not properly supplied with ammo. This was because they were THAT new. The 76.2MM gun was a new, hot item in 1941. The Reds were still scaling up.
As for artillery tubes: the Reds drastically out-matched the Germans. Stalin prioritised his army and air force. However, both were in transition from 1930's technology to 1940's technology. Because of their treaty, the Reds knew exactly what Guderian & Coy were bringing to the fight. (pop-gun 37mm Mark IIIs) The T-34 & KV-1 were their response. Even in 1941 the Reds were out-producing the Germans in tanks. The Germans were THAT slow off the mark.
The same 'crippled' Red Army invaded EVERY western neighbor, except Nazi Germany. Stalin didn't consider himself to be running a clown circus, nor could Hitler.
Famously, Adolf commented that if he'd only known that the Reds had 35,000 tanks he'd have totally reconsidered Barbarossa. Yup. The outside world didn't have a CLUE that Stalin had that many machines.
Such a tank force tells you all that you want to know about where Stalin's head was at. Other than Germany, NONE of his neighbors had a tank force worth talking about. (What a pacifist... NOT.)
As for pre-war and post-war Soviet military diplomacy -- they were ALWAYS in attack mode -- right up until 1991. They NEVER had a defensive doctrine.
The ONLY matter at issue was WHEN Stalin was in a position to attack.
Stalin even went after Truman when Truman had the Bomb -- and he didn't. How aggressive can you get?
There is NO nation on the periphery of the USSR that didn't feel threatened -- all the time.
Even today, the Baltics are fearful that they're about to get the Donetz 'solution.' Yet, Russia is weaker than ever -- save for its astounding nuclear arsenal.
Kid, you just don't have history on your side.
Do NOT take this argument to mean that I'm pro-Nazi. They damn near killed my father and my uncle.
Adolf merely calculated that time was absolutely NOT on his side.... Like Stalin, he kept looking back to WWI for his instructional.
That was an epic mistake for both of them.
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@ Mitch ... open your eyes.
You started off with an ad hominem against John Mosier. Weak.
Then you shifted to an appeal to authority. Weak.
Then you're back to ad hominem. Very weak.
Glantz's problem is that he actually believes internal Red Army documents. Whereas MANY Red officers have written that higher command's internal reports didn't have ANY correspondence with the facts in the field -- and they knew because they were in the battle at issue !
All of this is because Stalin would SHOOT any officer kicking the 'wrong' information upstairs.
The facts are beyond dispute:
1) The Reds WERE at the border. They WERE bagged by the thousands from the very start of the German invasion.
2) They were so far forward that within days they were out of supply -- as Guderian and Hoth had driven east into the Soviet rail net -- cutting off supplies at their source for the entire front. THIS was the trick during the early daze of Barbarossa. It did not last all that long.
( BTW, you'd be stunned as to how few rail lines led into Poland from the USSR. Going back to the Czars, such lines were just not built. Amazingly, the primary purpose of the Russian rail net -- from the beginning -- was to roll the Czar and his family around Russia. It was not built to support industry or commerce. All industry had to 'chase' the rails. That's the reason that 4-10-2 locomotives were in use, too. The lines were dead straight for miles and miles on end. In North America, all railroads stopped with 4-8-4 -- then shifted to articulated 4-6-6-4 designs.)
3) The REAL reason that Adolf went north and south instead of Moscow: the Ju-52 super-fiasco. Yup. This fiasco has been buried by ALL German accounts -- especially Guderian's. He was at the center of it. What happened? The landing gear under EVERY Ju-52 was being destroyed as they landed fuel and parts for Guderian's spear-head panzers. Yup. By the time Adolf showed up, the Luftwaffe was in crisis. There were 'dead' Ju-52s all over Russia. On a totally panic basis the RLM had to kludge up an enhanced landing gear repair kit. These were then flown out to Russia. All the while the planes were cracking up, Guderian BURIED the facts. He buried this fiasco in his own war bio, too.
But the Ju-52 was the linch-pin for his blitz. They were the reason he was able to defy expectation and just keep driving east. Even when the Russians had cut him off, the Luftwaffe just flew over the Russians and re-supplied the panzers. (!) Instead of coiling back, Guderian just drove even further east. Hurrying Heinz, indeed! The Russians were NOT being pocketed -- something that every idiot writes was happening. Guderian was simply going east faster than a man could walk. By grabbing every river crossing of note, they gradually trapped virtually every Red soldier. They fell behind, into the arms of the advancing German infantry. Without resupply, every formation ran out of gas and ammo. They were down to fists and knives.
Without their air lift fleet, Plan A was dead. THAT'S why Adolf sent his panzers to the wings. That's why all other generals assented. They couldn't drive into the zone of maximum rail road concentration without their air fleet.
4) Postwar: the USSR reversed ALL of Stalin's strategic errors. Under the new rules, the Red Army was to NEVER place their main body near the front. Further, the Ju-52 fleet was replaced by a massive helicopter fleet. This scheme is the reason why the Reds built the world's largest helicopters. They're too big for combat. They were built solely to fly fuel to Red tank spear-heads. As helicopters, they'd never suffer the landing troubles that the Ju-52 did. As for the Nazi Germans, they redesigned their airlift towards the centipede landing gear. (The C-130, C-5, C-17 uses a variation on this... a super robust assembly with excess tires for soft ground.) Their new design never had much impact as it was not so useful for defense, for retreat.
Mitch, you just don't know that much. Fifty-years of study makes a difference. Believe it.
Argue from FACTS -- not ad hominem.
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@Mitch... you are of slow wit. I'm not backing Rezun. I'm stating that John Mosier has a solid argument.
1) The Bolsheviks never DIDN'T aggress against their neighbors -- straight through from 1918 to 1991. It didn't matter who it was: Red China, Nazi Germany, Poland, Finland, Romania, NATO, the Baltics, eastern Czechoslovakia (when Hitler took the rest of that nation) -- and Korea and Iran.
2) That the USSR was not ready in 1941 is obvious to all. But Stalin was going to be pretty well set for 1942. That is what was obvious to German generals, virtually all of whom DIDN'T want to invade east. But, they couldn't argue that Stalin wouldn't be ready in 1942. EVERYTHING pointed to it as being a moment of maximum threat. By that time, Nazi Germany would be in DIRE straits WRT liquid fuels -- all of them. So much so that the Luftwaffe would be compromised. Further, Ploesti was WAY too close to the eastern Romanian frontier. Stalin had ALREADY put his strongest formation directly across from ROMANIA -- not Nazi Germany. Stalin knew that Ploesti was THE strategic prize. Yeah, it was that obvious.
Since Barbarossa, the Soviets totally changed their strategic doctrine. All during the Cold War their doctrine was: keep the Red Army on the defense from NATO -- with the very best weapons held at the Second Echelon -- ie inside the USSR. NEVER permit the First Echelon to deploy close to the border. It must be ready to motor there, but not be deployed there until hostilities are authorized by Moscow. This is why the 20th Guards Army was held back at Magdeburg all during the Cold War. It awaited orders coming from Zossen, HQ for the Western Direction. Ironically, Zossen started life as Hitler's twin HQ: OKW & OKH. It was so secret that the Red Army was shocked when they over-ran it in April 1945.
You're not well read, you don't know much, you don't argue well.
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@TIK
Soviet archives made me a believer.
Yeltsin produced them. They were astonishing.
Until then I never knew that Stalin picked the launch date, the partition line, etc. ( It was not negotiated at all, Stalin was given carte blanche so long as he was willing to sign on the line that was dotted.) Yes the archives detail that the treaty specified that BOTH nations would invade Poland September 1st, 1939.
He used a FAT crayon, BTW.
The original was kept by the Soviets, the Germans had to make do with a copy. Stalin initialled it, BTW. He was big into pencils -- notably a blue pencil.
(Shades of Harold Geneen of ITT fame, the corporate tyrant.)
Adolf ALWAYS wanted to launch his war.
He remained boxed in until Stalin let the devil run free.
Stalin's oil is the primary reason that France fell.
It energized the Luftwaffe. At all times prior, London and Paris had kept a weather eye on German avgas stocks.
There was a concerted Allied economic strategy to keep Germany on a short leash. ( Rubber, Oil, etc. were controlled by London, Paris and Washington. This leverage was their first go-to solution for tyrants. You'll note that this is STILL the West's opening gambit even today.)
Stalin broke the chains. THIS is what freaked Britain and France out.
It was transparent to Britain ( First Sea Lord Churchill ) that war had begun August 23, 1939 -- so he put the Royal Navy to sea -- and on a war footing right then and there.
I'm sure that Googling will pull it up. I just can't read Cyrillic script.
The first place I read about it (just summaries) was in the British press. So if you're able to go back through their archives, I'm sure that some articles will pop up.
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@Alexander
WRT Iceland, which is a colony of Denmark...
My school buddies father was a member of the Danish king's personal body guard. They were the platoon that got him out of Denmark right in front of the SS. ( Strange that the Heer was not detailed for this mission. )
Being the ONLY military formation left standing after Denmark was occupied, they were stationed on Iceland.
Britain was allowed to occupy Iceland with the King's permission.
When Churchill returned from Nova Scotia and his naval visit with FDR, he made a pit stop at Iceland. This is when my acquaintance was able to shake Churchill's hand, as the Danish 'Army' was in the front ranks of those assembled. They were joined by Britain's other European allies, mainly Holland. Every nation BUT the Danish made it into the newsreel footage. It was determined that the Nazis would retaliate against any Danish family that had a son in the King's body guard. They sure were pissed that the King got away.
Eventually my man ended up shipping out to the Dutch East Indies -- and after watching the IJN sink everything in sight, Battle of the Java Sea, he migrated over to the USN.
As for Iran ( it, the word, means Aryan in Farsi ) they jumped into bed with Adolf Hitler. ( Hence the name change away from Persia.) THAT'S why both Britain and the USSR invaded. It turned out to be quite convenient, too. As a land bridge to southern Russia was just what the doctor ordered. Arkangel was a bitch.
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