Comments by "David Himmelsbach" (@davidhimmelsbach557) on "Russia sanctions: Can China u0026 India make up for losses in EU? | DW News" video.

@catadoxas Actually, it will take ten-years to build the infrastructure so as to pipe nat gas and oil to Red China from northwest Siberia. The distance is vast, the terrain is daunting, the weather is brutal.
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@miriamweller812 Putin is utterly dependent upon INDUSTRIAL imports from European-NATO. Oil drilling, machine controls, chips, bearings, ... on and on they go.
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@alexdenisov7912 No, heavy, sour oil is in glut -- globally. It trades at QUITE a discount. Even now, most refineries are solely set up for light, sweet crude oil. For smaller countries, smaller economies, processing heavy, sour crude is wholly uneconomic. The Big Majors totally dominate that end of the crude oil spectrum. They are not for sharing their technology
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@catadoxas No. Nordstream 2 would've made Berlin Moscow's vassal. Ukraine is not THAT needy for transit fees.
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India and Red China are discovering that Russian oil at European ports is undeliverable to them. It's too far away. There is no support for crude oil tankers along the route. ( They're not permitted into port. ) Tankers built for the Russia to Europe trade are not equipped with enough bunker fuel capacity to sail straight on to India. Being Motor Vessels, they can't burn crude oil -- so no jury-rigged scheme is possible. Such ships will have to be modified (while in dry dock?) for more motor fuel capacity. Rising crude oil prices, globally, don't help Putin -- as he has to sell to India and Red China at whopping discounts. Of course, New Delhi can expect Washington to really lay on the pressure. Success for Putin must mean success for Xi -- when he comes after India. Taiwan is a small potato. Beijing sees New Delhi as its primary economic rival -- duh!
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Putin does have a pipeline to Red China in the Far East. It's maxxed out. His export terminals feeding Europe are too far away from India and Red China to make the trip. (for now, modified tankers could pull it off) What Putin has run into: no NATO nation will permit his tankers in to port -- even for -- especially for -- fuel resupply. The trip is so long that his tankers need refueling along the way. Further, he's running into commercial resistance at every step: no insurance, no crews, no captains. The very system that has worked for him all these years is now 'cancelled.' No-one wants to assist a murderer. Even the ships, themselves, don't belong to Putin. The great sailing nations owe everything to the USA -- and its navy. Putin is going to have to replace the entire system that ships his oil. He is a pariah. Too late, Putin is discovering that he can't sell his crude oil to just anybody. His whole system depended upon the West as a customer. In contrast, the West can -- easily -- bring oil in from elsewhere. It's the price that's painful. But it can be done.
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@eveleung8855 Eve, the Russian train system is already maxxed out WRT shipping to Red China. The pipelines required will be years in the building. The distances are vast, the terrain harsh and the weather brutal. Russia is simply not set up to sell oil and gas to Red China or India much beyond what's happening right now. The infrastructure required is so vast that you're looking at 2032 before the dream can be realized. But it's an uneconomic dream. Once Putin is gone and his war is over, business will revert to usual -- and anything spent on a mega pipeline to Red China will be seen as a total waste -- which it is.
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@cookiecola5852 It's happening in plain sight. The critical banks have never been sanctioned. It's business as usual.
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@alexdenisov7912 Wholly incorrect. Iran is just too small a player to replace Putin. We're not talking about a mere 1,000,000 bbl/ day.
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@human8454 Regardless of price, Russia is in the wrong location to supply India. Everything India needs is but a short hop to the Gulf.
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@catadoxas It's hard to make big bucks when your customers are charity cases.
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@alexdenisov7912 Actually, most all of the oil from California, these days, is ultra-heavy and sour. It was upon this oil that Shell built its technical capacity to utilize it. Shell bought up an entire oil field just for this purpose -- forty-years ago. Russian oil is all over the lot. Putin as the light stuff, the heavy stuff -- the works. His biggest seller has been his Urals grade crude. It's not that heavy. For really heavy: Venezuela. Yiikes, that crude is tar. Caracas has to import refined grades, to blend in, so that its own crude can flow.
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@alexdenisov7912 bln bbl a day is an obvious mis-print. And, it's a fact, Iran has found that getting back up to her old tempo is no easy thing. Her actual 'swing' pumping rate is ~ 1,000,000 bbl/ day. Given enough time, and $$, Tehran could bring another 1,000,000 bbl/ day on line. But that would require about 1.5 years to pull off. America's sanctions have really caused a LOT of Iran's stuff to atrophy. (Crude oils are chemically aggressive against pipes, pumps, valves, hoses.)
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@alru4407 You're describing the CCP. Your pitch is their doctrine... with much in print to reflect it.
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@abhaymahato7770 Putin is using his gold hoard to stabilize his ruble. He is also 'painting the tape.' Westerners have been expelled from trading the rubble.
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@fredzep01 Critical banks -- those handling gas payments -- have not been sanctioned. So, it's been business as usual for Berlin and Moscow. This situation is tearing up German politics.
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@catadoxas Kaddaffy told the world that he was going to cut off France and Britain from Libyan oil. So, both nations declared war upon him. Then, using Article V, Paris and London compelled Washington to bail them out of a jam. That was the end of Kaddaffy. Iran was not a serious seller of oil to Europe -- since 1980. Iran sold to Japan, Red China, India, Singapore -- some others, from time to time. Japan obtained a chronic waiver of US sanctions -- for years on end. Her refineries were dialed in to Iranian heavy, sour, crude. Only at the end, Tokyo stopped importing Iranian crude -- as the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia stepped up exports to suit Tokyo -- all of this arranged by Washington. As I type, Washington is trying to get Venezuelan and Iranian crude back into the picture. Such a notion qualifies as a brain fart. The true, real, and effective solution is to let the American oil & gas industries do their thing. They can supplant Putin almost single-handedly.
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@catadoxas Mearsheimer speaks like he's Putin's toady. His 'logic' is poor -- and his laundry list of facts has huge holes in it. For starters: NATO membership was never on the cards for Kyiv. France and Germany chronically vetoed it. Ditto for their position on Ukraine's EU membership. Said membership would require both nations to subsidize Kyive for decades -- and in the biggest figures, ever. The whole NATO story is bogus. Putin NEVER brings it up when pitching his war to his proles. Zelenzkyy has walked away from NATO membership -- weeks ago. France and Germany STILL don't want him in. You might note that both nations are not forth-coming WRT serious weapons. Take a hint.
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@alexdenisov7912 Russian oil sold to the US is so trivial that Biden has already sanctioned it to zero.
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@stephenm3470 His 22% figure is totally bogus -- and this is easy to establish with any search engine. Facts must be a second language for him.
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@alexdenisov7912 Russia is not a traditional supplier of heavy, sour oil to the US. History records: Canada, Venezuela, Iran and KSA as America's sources of heavies. Heavy, sour crude has ALWAYS been a glut on the market -- which is why it trades at such steep discounts at all times. The refiners that can handle it have a quasi-monopsony position. This tic is so pronounced that KSA built a refinery -- near Yanbu -- on the Red Sea -- just to 'crack' its own heavies into middle distillates and more. Yes, it's a world scale refinery. Yes, they gave up trying to sell such crude -- deciding to refine it, themselves. That's how punishing the discount was on KSA's heavy crude. This refinery uses American technology -- yet managed to get Red Chinese funding, IIRC. (It was the first Big Deal that the kingdom did with the CCP.) ZeroHedge (Putin's buddies) already report ships lingering at sea -- in the Atlantic -- unable to discharge their crude to America. Russian crude is now politically impossible for American refiners to touch. And Biden's sanctions don't kick in for another week!
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@alexdenisov7912 Urals oil is not considered truly heavy. It's a blend. It's deliberately up-graded by Putin so as to get the better price. Any refinery can tolerate light, sweet crude. But on the economics, many plants crave the price discounts available with the heavier stuff. They don't want to have their pre-treatment processing streams sitting idle. The typical European refinery finds that Putin's Ural blend to be about as heavy as they can go. So, for them, I guess it IS heavy.
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@linphilip6389 You must be a bot. Western business dealings are entirely based upon cooperation. Globalization = using Red China's slave labor. Xi has finally made that so noxious that globalization is in retreat. Western economic interests are merely responding to the antics of the totalitarians. Neither Xi nor Putin is at all willing to work with the West... exploit, certainly... 'work with' -- hardly.
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