Comments by "David Himmelsbach" (@davidhimmelsbach557) on "" video.

The historical metric for total losses is 1% per day for an active attack/ invasion while facing moderate resistance. Since everybody is lying or guessing -- let's stay with this historical norm. It puts total Russian losses at ~ 25,000 -- with the vast bulk being deserters, captives, and the wounded. KIA will be ~ 5,000 ish. KIA are not registered until the body is bagged and tagged. So it lags the others in time. Likewise a lot of MIAs turn out to be POWs. But this is not known for quite a bit of time, often weeks. The wounded are all over the lot, as some are mere bandage cases, others are permanently crippled. The use of conscripts means that desertion is going to be shockingly high, while denied. This is compounded by official lying to the draftees. All of the above explains why Putin has ordered all ready reserves brought to Ukraine, PDQ. He really needs them. They will be too late. MUD !!!
16
@calvinroyals6463 Bingo. We have a winner. And... ATGMs just love immobile APCs and Tanks. Deployed artillery does not move -- and ATGMs are brutal since self-propelled artillery is both huge and thin-skinned.
3
Covid.
2
@9hk38f No. He's losing to Father Time. Mud season has begun. That's the death of mobile operations, for sure. His boys are destined to be pinned down for weeks. Only dismounted infantry can function in Ukrainian mud. Even for them, things bog down. Putin started too late in Winter, with too few seasoned troops. He screwed up. BTW, the invasion was supposed to start 22-2-22. (Think on that date.) At the last moment, it was delayed 48-hours. Yes, it was fouled up from the very start.
2
By now, even that stat has to be low. Putin's total lost combatant troops figures to be 25,000, by now. Most were lost to desertion. Desertion is always a factor in war. That's what is typical of a green, conscript army that's been lied to. Their motivator has been broken.
2
We know Russian troop morale is rotten because so many call home to mamma. The boys just can't believe they're in a war zone.
2
The info came from Moscow.
2
@normabrien8331 Why not? Everything has been blamed on Covid.
1
@planetguam8475 It must be plain on the record that Putin fears the GRU and FSB. And he's blaming both for his invasion fiasco. As a captain in the GRU, he had to be very bright -- and young. GRU agents are entirely out of place in hot combat zones. So, it does smell like a liquidation ordered by higher ups.
1
@J R It's weird that a GRU agent was even close to the front. Obtaining military secrets is their task.
1
@9hk38f Actually mud ruined Barbarossa. It was so bad that the infantry divisions had to eat their horses to survive. When the snow made the final lunge towards Moscow possible, only mechanize divisions took part. The Krauts couldn't move their infantry field artillery -- no horses. Photos are already up on the Internet showing Russian heavy duty military trucks stuck all the way to their axles. Such a machine merely represents what is affecting the entire Russian logistics train. BTW, even Russian trains have a strong tendency of going off the rails during mud, too. Stalin had thousands of locomotive engineers in his gulag for this 'crime.'
1
@michaelcorbidge7914 The Nobel Committee must not know their stuff, then. "...Superconductivity was discovered on April 8, 1911 by Heike Kamerlingh Onnes..." He was in Holland. Prize: 1913.
1
@michaelcorbidge7914 I have no doubt that Ukraine and Russia do have some very high tech stuff. Even so, neither is a world-moving center of science, usually. I hope you can cite something amazing to prove me wrong.
1
Putin even lied to his own generals. THIS is why they were caught napping. All along, they thought that all the romping around was merely psychological pressure during diplomatic negotiations.
1
@niyoh6606 The US Army has had troops deployed into hot zones -- where casualties have proved to be nil. This still makes them vets -- as they had to go through the same psychological stresses as light combat. They learn all of the 'do-nots!' that somehow are only picked up in a hot zone... not basic training, etc. Putin's headache is that short enlistments, say 1-year, are insufficient to bring troops up to snuff. The entire conscription logic of the Russian system is of the 19th Century: a mass army of canon fodder with simple Simon weapons.
1
@St. Elmo Patron Saint of Doritos Putin's invasion army is becoming toothless. His tanks have so many combat miles on them that they ALL need shop time. (Tanks are very hard on their tracks. Break out a map and check out how many miles they must have logged.) This 'run-down' condition also stopped Adolf. Back in '41, the Nazi maps looked very impressive. However, by the end, Kraut formations were virtually toothless. Companies that started with 180 men were down to 30 men -- that kind of bleeding. Guderian's entire panzer army was finally reduced to a mere 50 panzers. (one battalion fusing panzers from every division!) It had to turn back. Adolf canned Guderian then, of course. He was deemed defeatist. Soon the Bolsheviks absolutely shredded the Ostheer.
1
@Braveheartman123 That's why I discount official sources -- any side. Just stay with historical norms. These are also the norms that Western generals use when planning. The more you know, the more amazed you will be that Putin invaded with such a small force. It's WAY undersized relative to his dream goals. We're now hearing that Putin has placed his top FSB/KGB agents under house arrest. That's a WOW. They're not only under arrest, but Putin couldn't keep that fact a secret.
1
@Braveheartman123 Nope. These are his A-team. That much is crystal clear.
1
@SheryAwan123 Nope. Biden bugged out -- politically. The US had no casualties for weeks on end. Then ol' Joe pulled the plug -- and destroyed Afghan morale -- by taking away everything that had made the Afghan Army combat effective. Yes, he pulled out the contracted Americans who were maintaining Kabul's helicopter and aircraft fleet. Suddenly, both were, de facto, grounded. Without them, Kabul had no defense against Taliban isolation tactics. Hence, no military man considers the Taliban military victors. They are deemed political victors -- by the grace of Biden. His Kabul bug-out triggered Putin's invasion of Ukraine. See how that works? Putin made a gut call WRT gutless ol' Joe.
1
@ffjsb Folks would be shocked as to how many troopers are hurt in vehicle accidents. Driving at night, fatigued, with zilch lighting... And if Russian military history is any guide, driving while drunk. Such driving usually breaks the machine, too. Tank losses due to road breakdown are always astounding to automobile drivers. That's why mechanized formations ALWAYS have their own tow machines and mechanics on call 24-7. (I takes a tank to tow a tank.)
1
@dsan8742 Putin has an atomic arsenal. NATO is terrified of him. So he simply does not need a huge land army. Atomics and rockets have changed, simply, everything. France, Germany and Poland have virtually no army strength. They would also have to join hands (utterly impossible) to march east. Your notion is dated to the 20th Century. Putin's thinking is dated to the 18th Century. 'Buffer zones' and imperialism -- both are so out of date.
1
The Taliban were nothing more -- or less -- than Pakistan's proxy army. That's where ALL of their supplies were coming from. The Pakistanis did to the US Army little different than they did to the Soviet Army. Since Pakistan is an atomic power, the US suppressed the story about their duplicity. Obama's own mother ran the CIA books//shop in Islamabad when he was young. I'm sure she has a silver star on the wall. She's the reason that he got into Harvard, BTW. The CIA has that much pull with Ivy. Once he was president, Obama cut off the Fat Money that made Islamabad tick. That's why the fight wound down to nothing under Trump. Pakistan has been in dire straits ever since. Red China won't pick up its tab. They, like Obama, know the score.
1