Comments by "David Himmelsbach" (@davidhimmelsbach557) on "🔴 Ukraine War - Ukrainian Soldier Defending Kyiv Area Finds Clear Words For His Enemy During Combat" video.

@julian-p It's down right amazing just how many anti-air systems the Ukrainians still have operational. The Russians are back to depending upon tube artillery, rocket artillery and long range ground-to-ground missiles.
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@julian-p The NLAW and Javelin have ranges beyond infantry small arms. Russian armor is being 'sniped' to death with these ATGMs. And Ukrainian drones are picking off Russian tanks, too. Drones are actually very hard to spot -- until they've done damage.
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@aksmex2576 But, Russian forces are spread so thin that it's still possible for Ukrainians to pop-off ATGMs at their enemy.
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@Rampart NOPE. In large modern engagements -- that are active -- as this one is -- 1% losses in men and material are to be expected each day -- even in light combat operations. So, by now, Putin's invasion strength is down ~ 25,000 souls. (KIA, Wounded, MIA, deserted, captured, and just lost in the woods) No small number in that tally are deserters -- to be expected in a conscript army with loads of noobie troopers. Many of these kids had just been called up. (!) Yes, they are phoning home to momma. Their morale is shot, of course. That Putin HAS taken such losses is revealed by his (obviously panicked) call up of reserves, far and wide.
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@alrizo1115 Putin is so ticked about Western military support that he's threatening to escalate. Kiev is constantly thanking the West for its aid. Zelenskyy is lauded in all Western capitals as a lion of defense. Putin's entire economy is being gutted. This will become VERY apparent in a few more weeks. Putin has made his military totally dependent upon Beijing for micro chips... and much else.
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@billvarner6548 NOPE. Putin has already thrown in his whole pre-invasion force. Now he's calling for reserves as far as Vladivostok. This can be seen from outer space, that much equipment is involved.
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@abdur1300 The FSB told Putin the truth. He threw the FSB analysis into his trash bin. Putin is using dramatically more conscripts// draftees than the West anticipated. Even his elite formations are looking weak, poorly commanded.
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@aksmex2576 No Ukrainian thinks things are going 'swell.' It's obvious to all that Kiev is simply not releasing the sorry statistics. This is expected. Ukrainian fatalities are widely presumed to be terrible. Even hunkered down civilians are dying everywhere. As for the Russians 'handling' things. Putin has been compelled to call up reserves -- all the way to the Far East. It's dramatically harder to buck-up an army for offensive operations... any time, any army. For obvious reasons, Russian losses have to include: KIA Wounded MIA Captured/ Surrendered/Deserted Simply lost in the woods (quite easy to do) Any of these guys is no longer available for Putin's invasion project. History's military statistics say: 1% per day lost during active operations even against moderate opposition by the attacking force. Forget the Talking Heads. At the gross level, just assume that history repeats, that Russia is bleeding 1% per day. KIA is not the relevant metric. It's swamped by the other losses. Putin must be down about 25,000 troops by now. Such a stat would entirely explain Putin's call up of reserves, nationally.
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@aprilaidaano-an4255 Defending armies can get away without an air force. They just can't ever concentrate for a Big Battle. Russia is being 'sniped' to death. Kiev is only committing a few squads to any particular action. Consequently, Russia can't mass artillery fires upon the defenders. Instead, Putin is shooting up residential high-rises. Those ARE easy to spot.
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@aprilaidaano-an4255 Total war would require Ukraine to attack Russia. So, you're off base from the first. Ukraine has not touched a single Russian civilian, nor bombed a single Russian structure. Ukraine's goal is to stop Putin. Then the Russian Army will pick up its toys and simply leave... rather like the Soviets did decades ago in Afghanistan. Stop twisting reality.
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@Bird22 But mud season has begun. This means that mechanized warfare must grind to a halt.
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@Rampart NOPE. The Ukrainians never had a big air force. But what they do have is still really bothering Putin. The Russian Air Force is almost a no-show. Its sortie rate is remarkably lower than the West expected.
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@Miller80 Put down the bong.
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@thirdeyenotblind007 You mean 25,000 lost by Putin. That'd only be 1% per day -- actually pretty light, all in all. Whereas the Ukrainians have more volunteers than gear to hand out. The Ukrainian army started out a tad smaller than Russia's. It has simply ballooned in size... 10-times its prewar size!
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@Dan.a.k.a.bradpitt Because so many Russians have VPNs -- reality is spreading across Russia. The Internet crowd is 'hip' and unhappy.
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@thirdeyenotblind007 Ask Serbia.
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@Dan.a.k.a.bradpitt MAD can't be danced around. It's been with us for sixty-years. Hint.
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@billvarner6548 Western intelligence agencies guestimate that Putin has committed the vast bulk of his army to his 'project.' Putin is known to be calling up reserves as far away as Vladivostok. (Mobilization is a fixation for all intelligence services.) No-one believes that the Russian Air Force is holding back for some Sunday punch. Putin needs his victory now, not later. When things go sweetly, Russia does not mind pushing combat video into the news. When things go sideways, not so much. (In this Russia replicates the dynamic seen in WWII. Fouled up operations were not deemed newsworthy. Ukraine is not publicizing its reverses, either.) Your post has little validity.
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@thirdeyenotblind007 No-one. Just Serbia.
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@begobolehsjwjangan2359 Putin is NOT in Kiev. His boys are stuck in the mud -- outside of the city.
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@thirdeyenotblind007 Lay off the caps. It's assumed by everyone that Ukraine has lost plenty of soldiers and citizens. It's also true that Kiev is not releasing combat losses. Zelenskyy's staff makes no bones about that. As Vietnam showed, reverses for the defender don't have much impact on the flow of events. Putin is attacking the entire population of Ukraine -- which is many, many times the size of his army. Indeed, his army of invasion is WAY too tiny for his 'project.'
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@zileanicathun That's not how things are playing out. NATO et. al are already affected.
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@tobias9859 The defense never has to look all that sharp. It's the invader who has to perform brilliantly. Ukraine is looking awfully good, though. It has already a larger army. But, it's short on weapons for its instant army, plainly. It does not make the news, but all manner of trivial military gear is flowing into Ukraine. (Helmets, body armor, boots...) Zelensky is growing an army that will soon be larger than Putin's. It just won't ever have the big equipment, tanks, APCs, artillery, sufficient to go on offense against the Russian Army.
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@julian-p The days of tanks riding roughshod over infantry are long gone. Knights in armor can't do that either.
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@thebelltower8040 Put that on Biden, the man. He over-rode all of his advisors -- and 'bugged out.' In his manner, his style, he broke the morale of the entire Afghan nation. His bug-out really is the basis of Putin's plunge. He was so feckless that Putin figured that the time for aggression had returned. (Scary Trump was out of the picture.)
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@thebelltower8040 Trump would not have cut and run from Kabul -- which was the set-up for Putin's gut-move. Putin plunged into Ukraine because of Kabul. Everybody sees that. BTW, does anyone remember that the UK, US and Russia all pledged to protect Ukraine ? Yeah, this pledge was all a part of the deal that had Ukraine eliminating its Soviet atomics. Doing so even made it into a Bond film. ("The World is Not Enough." Boy, do its plot elements have relevance now.)
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@thebelltower8040 Those clever weapons depend upon micro-chips, imported micro-chips. They have been sanctioned. The West skipped past Putin's reality. His best stuff is critically dependent upon imported high tech stuff. For all practical purposes, Russia does not have a silicon chip industry. It's end market has always been too small for it to afford current technology fab plants. Taiwan is down at 5nm -- America is at 10nm -- Russia's is at 65nm -- and there's not much of that. Russia is even dependent upon Western software to even design circuits. It's now been sanctioned... actually cut-off. Russia is truly screwed. Brilliant young Russians are already booking flights to get out. They are so smart that they can see that their industry has no future in Russia.
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@julian-p I predicted the demise of the USSR -- TO THE DAY -- based on the fiasco of Saddam's defeat. That's what triggered everything. I reasoned that the Party the KGB+GRU and the Defense Complex would be at each other's throats -- in the blame game. And they were. The GRU was blamed by the others for not getting the dope on the West's stuff; The KGB was blamed; The Party was blamed; The DC was blamed. Go back and you'll see that each faction was going crazy from this scrum. Afghanistan was different because not one blamed each other for that debacle. They all blamed their puppets in Kabul. That came easy. Why to-the-day ? The coup had to wait for Gorby's vacation in Sochi. I knew that it occurred in mid-August every year. No WAY could a coup work if Gorby was in Moscow. Remember, when Gorby is on vacation, so are the other kingpins of Bolshevik power. Thus, 8-15-1991 figured to be THE day. I was astounded when my prediction turned out true -- like so many, many others.
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@loner9832 Biden is Woke so we are soon to be broke. Biden is still attacking America's energy industry.
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@thebelltower8040 You kid. Russia does not produce a single manufactured good that Red China, Taiwan or the USA can't also produce. It does have quite the edge in certain commodities, I grant you that. But the commodities game is won by lowest cost with volume -- not by being the solo producer. Lest any forget: the US (largely) invented the modern world. The UK invented the industrial world, industrial transportation. France invented the machine tool industry. Germany & France invented the chemical industry. And so forth.... Together with their trading partners, these nations are the heart of the West -- THE heart of NATO.
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@thebelltower8040 But none of those are critical monopolies. Neon comes from liquified air. Titanium is produced from TiCl4 which comes from TiO2 -- and the West produces that by the ton. It goes into white paint as a primary pigment. Rubies are very pretty, but artificial ones can be cranked out even in the West. Russia is merely the world's lowest cost producer, especially in volume. We'd sure love to do business with Russia. We just can't do business with Putin. Once you figure that out, you're almost home.
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@tobias9859 He's not destined for the front line. Because of his expertise, I'll bet that he's tasked with supporting Ukrainian warriors from his keyboard. Famously, humorously, Buster Keaton -- in his film "The General" is desperate to volunteer. When it's revealed that he's a train engineer -- his pleas are in vain. (He's out to impress his gal.) Having a very rare skill, there was no way that the South could permit him elsewhere. BTW, the Ukrainian Army is not make believe. It's an instant army. It's the Russian Army that's being revealed as make believe. It's loaded with wannabee deserters. They have my sympathy. They've all been lied to... officers, included. Putin's instant war shows that the officers were not even clued in as to what came next. That's why everything unfolding is slipshod. Putin never comprehended that military operations need lead time. Big operations need lots of lead time. During WWII, countless operations were delayed because the boys were not ready. Market-Garden comes immediately to mind. It's but one of the many.
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@aksmex2576 Defenders can lose entire armies (See USSR 1941) and carry on. Attackers are in hot water if they lose entire armies. ( See Stalingrad 1942-3) My numbers are based on historical norms for ACTIVE operations. Much of WWI was practically silent -- as all combatants had bled them selves white. Whereas, during intense operations, casualties went far, far higher than 1% per day. France and Germany lost entire divisions per day at Verdun. Putin simply has a TOTALLY insufficient force for his tasking. Any lines you see on these battle maps are really frauds. No-one is actually standing within firing range for most of the perimeter. Again: WWII Eastern Front. The Krauts found that it was totally impossible to follow their standard defense. They had to resort to 'faking' a front line with hedge-hog positions -- backed up by semi-rapid panzer reaction forces. (Think Stug IIIs) Right now, the 'front line' if I dare misuse that term, is largely guarded by drones and TV cameras, aerial and ground based. If the enemy is detected, then a rapid reaction force is vectored. (Helicopters/ APCs, etc.) Putin has the technology, he just doesn't have the manpower. If he lets the boys get too thin on the ground, the Ukrainians will scoop them up. (Desertions are epic in Russian ranks; Putin lied to his boys.) My historically based stats seem high because they include desertions. 5,000 KIA 15,000 Wounded 2,500 MIA -- Battle captures - POW 2,500 MIA -- Deserted & Surrendered POW Kiev has found PLENTY of boys in the final category. They deserted because Ukraine is a brother country, there are no Nazis, and because they were lied to. They have my sympathy. The 'Battle captures' include a lot of wounded troops, now in Ukrainian care. Many didn't surrender, they were unconscious when taken by Ukraine. I use historical norms because every official source is either lying or guestimating. Real stats won't shake out for weeks and weeks. POWs always start out as MIA. Then the paperwork finally comes through. This can take a lot of time. Even KIA start out as MIA. For Putin all that matters is that active troop strength keeps falling, falling, falling. In contrast, Zelenskyy's instant army keeps growing by leaps and bounds. Napoleon faced this dynamic two-centuries ago. His enemies always out-numbered his troops. When they finally got their whole act together -- it was the Battle of Nations.(1813) He was blown out, of course. The Russian Army in the field is becoming out-numbered. Not out-equipped -- out-numbered. The flipping point is directly at hand. Things are moving that fast.
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@aksmex2576 BTW, Ukraine is in no position to count wounded Russians. These -- in modern armies -- run at least three-to-one versus KIA. Helicopters and modern surgery are why. BTW, many KIA only show up on the operating table. Kiev can't know about them, either. I repeat, repeat, repeat: use historical norms. Forget what the players are saying// lying // hoping. For such super-scale human enterprises (war) the law of large numbers kicks in. This is the same law that keeps insurance companies in business. Averages prove out.
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@aksmex2576 My stats reflect desertions from a conscript army that has been lied to. I'm very likely low. I know that the official line from the players -- this early in -- is never right. I go back to historical norms. BTW, conscript armies usually have EPIC desertion rates. The Union Army of the USA had mind boggling desertion rates all the way through its war against the Confederates. A taste of this is recorded in "The Red Badge of Courage." When made into film they cast a boy totally against the part: Audie Murhpy. A singularly brave man. While Russia simply has to have epic desertion from its ranks, no Ukrainian has that option. He's fighting right along side his own neighbors. History has shown that such outfits die at their personal Alamo rather than retreat. Most famously from history -- the Swiss. They provided mercs during the Thirty-Years War. Because they NEVER broke ranks, they were the absolute terror of all other troops. Just the sight of their standards would cause opponents to buckle. They had the reputation later earned by imperial guard troops. ( pick your favorite nation ) Today, that rep goes with parachutists. Note how they've totally supplanted the roles of the old imperial guards. The Swiss were so tough because it was socially impossible for the boys to cut and run. They'd all come from the same small towns. To flee was to be socially dead. By the end, they had a reputation worse than the SS. To this very day, the Geneva protections never cover a Swiss fighting in the ranks of any other power than Switzerland... or the Pope. His point is harped on by Swiss high schools -- rather severely, as one Swiss assured me. If I were a Russian, I would expect exactly the same fanatical defense known from Stalingrad. I'd send hair clippings back to mom so that she'd have something to bury when I don't come back.
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@aksmex2576 BTW, I've been at this for fifty-years. My track record shames the CIA/ Pentagon. I'd post it -- except that you could never accept it. Yes, it's freakishly good. I predicted that Putin would invade -- for real -- February 18, 2022. Did you? Post it if you know what the absolute 'tell' was. BTW, Did you know that Putin's invasion was delayed by 48-hours? Yes. It was supposed to begin 22-2-22. Think about it. Putin had to substitute his grand declaration. Thank me later. That delay shows what a foul-up even the first day was.
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