Comments by "Diego Yanes Holtz" (@diegoyanesholtz212) on "Econ Lessons"
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The Republican party is not for freedom, they want a dictatorship in America, I losing faith in the American system, I am a free market dude, but the MAGA people have gone full outright fascism, they are criticizing the Austrian school and want a Christian theocratic authoritarian state in american and they hate the philosophy I like which is classical liberalism, you can not have a just society without freedom, if you end freedom of the press in America is the end of a just society, and America becomes an Argentina. Ask Chat GPT what was the GDP Per capita PPP of Argentina in the 1920s? The country in 1920, corrected by inflation was as rich as Scandinavian country, and because of stupid authoritarian policy, the country now is as poor as Brazil and Mexico.
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Transnistria, Priednestrovie, will the government will face a collapse financial soon. An empire, like Russia, always collapses first at the periphery and then collapses at its core. It was like this in the Soviet Union in the late 1980s and early 1990s, Poland, and Hungary left the soviet bloc, then came the velvet revolution in Czechoslovakia and the Berlin Wall fell and East Germany was united with the richer West Germany, Ceausescu was executed and then in the Soviet Union the Baltics republican wanted to regain independence, then it spread to the caucus and Ukraine, etc until the Soviet Union did not exist anymore. We will know when Russia lost when Ukraine regained Crimea, and you know when Russia collapsed when all its vessel states, Transnistria, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Belarus collapsed. Chechnya is demanding independence from the empire.
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I don't think Germany, more like a repeat of 1917 Tsarist Russia, I do see Yugoslavia, and Russia Balkanizing, especially Regions that are easy to Balkize like Kaliningrad (Koeginsberg), Chechnya, Tuva, Dagestan, etc, Russia will become smaller in size, now how bad will it be the balkanization, I don't know. But it will happen. Regions that easily gain independence like Kaliningrad(Koeginsberg) and regions where there are very few ethnic Russians and are close to the border of an independent country, like Chechnya, Tuva, and Dagestan will go first. Probably like Yugoslavia other regions will leave the Federation. The balkanization of Yugoslavia started with Croatia and Slovenia and then Bosnia left, North Macedonia left, and Kosovo decided to leave until in 2006 Montenegro voted for independence and it was peaceful independence.
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Ukraine might be winning but this war is not over yet, unfortunately, I do think Russia will do mass mobilization, and Allan Lichtman is predicting Harris to win, so if Kamala Harris wins, Putin will throw every single Russian man to the meat grinder. The best case scenario is your scenario, a Russian economic collapse that will eventually come, people are saying that this war is caused because Ukraine discovered oil reserves, I think another factor in play, is that Putin is very scared of a color revolution happening in Russia and it being successful, Georgia had one he invaded it, Putin is traumatized and remembers what happened to the eastern bloc and movements like Solidarity in Poland, that brought down the Soviet Union, he was in East Germany in 1989, as a KGB officer and he witnessed at the time what happened there, even one of Putin's daughter was born in Dresden, Germany were he was stationed.
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Yeah, the new conservatives in America are a joke, even progressives are more serious, just look at Trump, Matt Gaetz, MTG, Lauren Boebert, etc. I think they like Vladimir Putin so much because they want a Russian system in America, I am an Independent and a double hater, I don't like a lot what Biden is doing and don't think is good for America in the long term, but a Russian system of government is way more harmful than the worst of Biden's policy and that why I am voting for Biden.
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China has printed more than the US, see the Yuan and you can use FRED sites. Chinese statistics are not trustworthy and take it with a grain of salt, but there still is more RNB printed the USD. Also, China is a black hole the US is not, the US is a transparent country, I don't see any alternative to the dollar, and is not even Bitcoin which is too volatile, and prone to asset bubbles and speculation. Peter Zehian said that the world economy outgrew the gold market, that is why we do not have the gold standard since 1971, I do not think the US needs a good standard or a nominal surplus, just needs to cover the cost of pension, salary, welfare, infrastructure, etc, everything the government spend excluding interest spending, the US can outgrow the debt with a primary surplus, is not like only debt part of debt/GDP grows, there is also GDP growth.
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The US dollar is the best fiat currency. There are other strong fiat currencies such as the Swiss franks, the Euros, the British pound, the Canadian dollar, the Australian dollar, the Japanese Yen, the New Zealand dollar, the Swedish Krona, the Danish Krona, and the Norwegian Krona, but the US dollar is the gold standard of fiat and the world reserve currency which other fiat currencies aren't.
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@EconLessons Russian society is sick to the core. It is so corrupt. I don't only think is communist, Romania Czechia, Estonia, and Poland were communist countries and their societies aren't like this. I think this is how the Russian Czar the country, Ivan the Terrible, Russia was always an autocratic country, which is their culture. Even though communism is evil I call BS that Russia is like this because of communism, what about Poland, Czechia, Romania, and the Baltic states?
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This could end three ways, one a Maidan Revolution in the US, Civil war in the US, or the US becomes Russia and this country becomes a 4th world country, their is joke that Argentina is no a developing country but a post developed country, Argentina was one of the richest country in the world, Argentina was as wealthy Canada and weathier as Germany and France, Argentina's constitution was model after the US constitution, now Argentina is a poor country, what happened? A dictator called Juan Domingo Peron adopted a bad policy inspired by Mussolini's Italy and made Argentina a third world country by the 1990s. Argentina has a lot of connection to Italy; the country's largest demographics are Italo-Argentines. And in the 1920s the country attracted a lot of immigrants from Europe, especially Italians, and if you go to Buenos Aires, it feels European, the buildings, the people, and you don't feel much like in another Latin American country like Mexico, Brazil or Colombia, but in Europe, especially some naighbourhood in the center of Bueno Aires like Ricoleta is very european style urbanism. There are a lot of parallels between MAGA and Peronism and I hope this movement is defeated, or else the US will be a post-developed country like Argentina that lives off its former glory.
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Some people say that Russian and Brazilian cultures are similar, but I disagree, there are overlaps, but people in Brazil are extremely religious, people say in Brazil there is a church in every corner. Also, Brazilians don't like war, Brazil is probably one of the few countries that did not fight for their independence, they negotiated it with Portugal and accepted a Portuguese monarch as their own emperor. Brazil is a politically unstable country, but I doubt they will ever go to war and try to conquer Uruguay for no reason, in Russian culture, there is a certain militarism that is not present in Brazilian culture. Brazilians don't care about the military and aren't patriotic people. They hate their country and feel ashamed of it, it is called mongrel syndrome.
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I saw the trade deficit in the US as a non-issue because so many people want to invest, and there is the capital balance, now if Trump puts capital control and money can't leave the US nobody will put money in the US, making the US dollar a worthless currency and possibly even loss its reserve currency status. You just made the US dollar then the same as the Ruble, the Yuan, and Brics. Is just dumb to do that, also another part of Trump plan's I hate, is ending the independence of the FED, FED policy will not be based on rational economic decisions controlling inflation, and maintaining unemployment low, but based on whatever BS is on Trump's mind. As I said, this will threaten the US dollar's dominance in the world market, and investors, domestic and foreign will lose trust in the currency if you don't be careful, no mess with monetary policy.
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Putin is f*cked, he messed with the war hawk in the republican party, and the biggest mistake was rejecting JD Vance's peace plan, and now the republican party is even more hawkish on Russia than Biden was, they are f*cked, you do need to worry about Ukraine because they have won. Putin will be remembered as a stupid, greedy, arrogant, spoiled, little tyrant, who made a fatal mistake rejecting the peace plan that JD Vance proposed.
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Yeah, but oil prices will go up in the US, UAE, Brazil, and Saudi Arabia are in BRICS, and export oil to the US, and with 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, oil prices will skyrocket. I agree with the breakup of BRICS, Milei said that he does not want to be part of BRICS, but Brazil has a lot of Russians going there too, seeing a lot of YouTube channels in my native portugues of Russians going to live in Brazil.
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@EconLessons yeah, I saw this, there are some black market that are criminal activity, like prostitution and the sex trafe, drugs, military grade weapons, ilegal gambling, other are legit, like grama selling cake to add to her pension, my grama sold flan and other sweets, she was honest good kind person. There are also counterfeit products sold in the black market, fake glasses, lv bags. Black market is very diverse.
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@paperandmedals8316 I agree, that why Biden has to resign. If MAGA wins, the US will be a very dystopian place. "It can't happen here" will happen. I see one of the armed militias become an American waffen SS, Venezuela has it own armed militias, Hugo Chávez arm slums dweller and form a loyal militias. The Nazi had two SS and SA, I think there will be infighting amongst the militias to see how will be the American SS, we have the Proud Boys, the Oath keeper, and even those Nazi degenerate shouting "j3w will not replace us". After the supreme Court said Trump has immunity and turned the US into a Banana Republic, I think the Republican party is morally bankrupt and we have to vote Democrat untill the move towards the center right and becomes the party of Mitt Romney, George H W Bush, Ronald Reagan and John McCain again and abandons MAGA for good.
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I am not saying Biden was worse than Trump, he is much better than Trump on Ukraine, but he made a huge mistake, he should have given all the hardware Ukraine needed to win all at once, and not little by little, and no restriction on HIMARS and ATACMS missiles. I do believe if he had done that, the situation now in the front line would be better, it will get worse because of the orange czar, but the US will lose it influence with this orange baffoon in the white house, situation in the US will get worse, is just the country and the american people has become stupid the last 40 years. It was on purpose, Lew Kuan Yew warned about the horrible american public education standards in the elementary, middle, and high school level, and he predicted bad leaders taking over the US in the 1990s, he was right on that.
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I voted for Harris, not because of Ukraine, maybe there is one issue I agree with her, is just I don't want to face denaturalization and go to the GULAG and be deported to Brazil. The GOP is just become a F4$c!$t party. Is not the same Republican party of Reagan, I won't say even George W. Bush was a F4$ç!$t, because George W. Bush wasn't one, but Trump is one. Trump is the worst president in my lifetime and MAGA will destroy the US from within, and that is why dictators love Trump, Elon is definitely in bed with the Chinese communist party, and Tesla is the only company I know that builds a car factory there and didn't transfer technology to China. I think China even offered Elon Chinese citizenship to build a Tesla factory in Xanghai and Elon refused watching SerpentZA and Laowhy86 is very hard to obtain Chinese citizenship if you are not ethnically Chinese. Trump is receiving something from Russia too. I say now MAGA is a Russo-Chinese Psyops, I always see MAGA praising China and Russia.
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The US gave aid to the Mujahadeen in Afghanistan, Saddam Hussien during the Iran-Iraq war, and Iran and the mullahs too during the same war. Is Ukraine worse, they have a corruption problem, yeah I agree, but are worse than any of these actors? And if the US helps Ukraine win this war, Russia is over, and European security is an afterthought, maybe, there is pro-Russian Chinese propaganda, think about it, the US cannot hyperfocus on China if Russia is still strong.
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I believe America little, by little is losing it power and influence, Trump is not Making America Great but Weak, I was seeing a dude that lives in Florida and he said how bad DeSantis is, DeSantis is a fascist, he ended academic freedom, gone after company that he do like, I believe Chinese and Russian money enter the GOP and the Party is dead in the water and a new axis of evil Moscow, Tehran, Beijing and MAGA America and probably it will be Washington. I believe the US will go to war with Canada is just a matter or when. God How I hate what America is becoming and wish I was never a US citizen, is just become a glorify banana republic and a joke of a country that now will trust.
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Georgia wasn't ready for the Russian invasion, remember that, in the Second Chechen War Grozny (the Capital of the Chechen Republic) was a carpet bomb, I went to Google Street View and saw Grozny it reminded me of Brasília, a modern city in Brazil, and the capital of that country. Russia left nothing in Grozny. I think Putin's Carpet bombing of that city made Russia win the second Chechen war. Putin also made a deal with the Kadyrov clan, the Kadyrov clan backstabbed the other Chechen clan and became a dictator of Chechnya, in Russia, there is a saying, that the law of Moscow does not apply to Chechnya, it is the most independently run republic in Russia, they have the most autonomy from Moscow, Putin has to tolerate it because he does not want to fight a third Chechen war.
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The problem with the US is that politics is not boring, Make Politics Boring Again, I think entertainment and politics should not mix, and religion and politics also should not mix. Everyone should have a belief system, if you want to Atheist sure do it, if you what to be an evangelical Christian do it too, and if you want to be Jewish nothing against you, what I hate about Trump and Trumpism is forcing religion on society through the government, it reminds of what happened in Iran and I am 100% against it, people should have the freedom to be religious or to convert people to religion, but it has to be done voluntarily.
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