Comments by "Sean Cidy" (@seancidy6008) on "William Spaniel" channel.

  1. Russia is a military autocracy, The longer the war goes on and the more help Ukraine gets from the West the more formidable the Russian military becomes as it adjusts to the level of opposition.
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  2. There is no insurmountable political problem in mobilizing more troops by the Kremlin, and they could but it would get them nowhere. The real reason they haven't is they know it would bring a nullifying reaction from Washington. The Kremlin understands what is going on: it cannot start winning without Ukraine being given additional help to restore a stalemate. Hence the repeated announcement that giving Ukraine ATACMS is being considered every time Russia enjoys the slightest success. Ukraine is going all out, but Washington is not and neither is Moscow. Whereas Vietnam was lost by virtue of the lack of propinquity, and the corollary of an option to withdraw and not have the VC on the US border, the Russians cannot withdraw from the occupied territory an ocean between them and Ukraine. The Russian population would fear that. Actually, your average Russian is choosing to ignore the case for Ukraine being no threat is left alone and has identified Ukraine as an state that is backed by the West and part of an enemy assemblage that cannot be trusted. And RusFed may be an autocracy like the Soviet Union but unlike the USSR Russia is basically a nation state, and can benefit from ethically based patriotic feeling just as much as Ukraine can. Making Russians cease to believe in their country without burning out the they morale of Ukrainians will be a challenge for Ukraine. Both sides are going to be relying on front line soldiers who are aware they are replacements for more committed volunteers who got KIA. The norm of soldiers' patriotic motivations and willingness to invite death has surely altered for both sides. I don't think being a democracy makes much difference to things after 19 months, because the Ukrainian in uniform is no more free to swap it for his bed at home than a Russian soldier is. They are under a military discipline which is essentially the same in both armies. For example, conscientious objectors are being arrested and jailed in Ukraine.
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  3. 'No plan survives contact with the enemy'. Plans change
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  4. It was Neville Chamberlain that declared war on Germany
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  5. He'd use nukes to avoid losing, and he does not think he is losing. But he could not lose without it dawning on him at some point. So the red line is starting to have no serious possibility of wining, which is not where we are. The US is not going to get into a nuclear war over Ukraine. Russia cannot get into a nuclear war with Ukraine. Nuff said.
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  6.  @nobodyherepal3292  Nuclear weapons are a deterrent to nuclear was between two nuclear powers. Ukraine has no nukes.
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  7.  @nobodyherepal3292  Putin is not Gorby, nor has Afghanistan long been identified as a crucial pivot of global domination.
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  8. The West has never given Ukraine troops, and that is what they would need to beat Russia.
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  9. Russia's troubles are relative to Ukraine's.
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  10. Biden was pres with most of his term ahead of him when Putin launched his invasion. Russia has never counted on Trump. How is Ukraine being 'kept safe'; I was under the impression that there was a high intensity war being fought in its east, which is being slowly leveled,
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  11. The aim of a strategic offensive is to destroy the enemy's army. They have to defend the ostensible objective, hence the German military professionals' insistences that Moscow ought to be the object of a concentrated attack. Unfortunately for the German army. Hitler disagreed. As Von Bock complained in his diary he did not want to ' Capture Moscow' he wanted to destroy the enemy army.
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  12. I don't think the conclusions you reach are consistent with the fascinating info you provide about cancelation of the lease on Crimea precipitating Putin into annexing. The value Putin places on Ukraine implied by his 2014 invasion to keep it hardly suggests he, or maybe any, Russian leadership will accept losing it. It tends to be assumed in this and a lot of other similar things on YT that after Ukraine (hypothetically) gets its lost territories back Russia will just throw up its hands and quit, but that is very unlikely. Crimea is basically Russian and given all the Russian speakers who have been moved there from Kherson and other places the Ukrainians have taken it is extremely doubtful that Ukraine could win any kind of referendum there. In summary, Ukraine has not thought it through; they can win a hundred battles, but the war will keep going on
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