Comments by "Sean Cidy" (@seancidy6008) on "Ukraine's Alternate Win Condition: Inside the Gamble on the War of Attrition" video.

  1. There is no insurmountable political problem in mobilizing more troops by the Kremlin, and they could but it would get them nowhere. The real reason they haven't is they know it would bring a nullifying reaction from Washington. The Kremlin understands what is going on: it cannot start winning without Ukraine being given additional help to restore a stalemate. Hence the repeated announcement that giving Ukraine ATACMS is being considered every time Russia enjoys the slightest success. Ukraine is going all out, but Washington is not and neither is Moscow. Whereas Vietnam was lost by virtue of the lack of propinquity, and the corollary of an option to withdraw and not have the VC on the US border, the Russians cannot withdraw from the occupied territory an ocean between them and Ukraine. The Russian population would fear that. Actually, your average Russian is choosing to ignore the case for Ukraine being no threat is left alone and has identified Ukraine as an state that is backed by the West and part of an enemy assemblage that cannot be trusted. And RusFed may be an autocracy like the Soviet Union but unlike the USSR Russia is basically a nation state, and can benefit from ethically based patriotic feeling just as much as Ukraine can. Making Russians cease to believe in their country without burning out the they morale of Ukrainians will be a challenge for Ukraine. Both sides are going to be relying on front line soldiers who are aware they are replacements for more committed volunteers who got KIA. The norm of soldiers' patriotic motivations and willingness to invite death has surely altered for both sides. I don't think being a democracy makes much difference to things after 19 months, because the Ukrainian in uniform is no more free to swap it for his bed at home than a Russian soldier is. They are under a military discipline which is essentially the same in both armies. For example, conscientious objectors are being arrested and jailed in Ukraine.
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