Comments by "Sean Cidy" (@seancidy6008) on "How is the war going? — Early May 2023" video.

1:56 Fanfaronade from Ukraine about their perma imminent mighty offensive may be a ploy intended to get the Russians dedicating resources to digging in, thereby obviating any major Russian attack. Ukraine is going to throw its laboriously accumulated, superbly equipped, and trained crack brigades into a very predictable drive South against what is by now a deeply echeloned Russian defence a la Kursk(2)?
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The Russians have not destroyed the bridges across the Dnieper. Why is that do you think?
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The forces used in Bakhmut are highly specialised convict cannon fodder Wagner units; indeed they seem to have been created precisely for the purpose of the Bakhmut campaign . I don't see how they could easily be employed elsewhere in the front. The Russian artillery may be weakened elsewhere because of Bakhmut, but I don't see it as an overall economy of force operation for Ukraine
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@baronvonlimbourgh1716 Wagner methods in Bakhmut require massive artillery support for tiny assault groups, which get preceded by expendable screens of convicts there simply to draw fire, and aren't scalable to the whole theatre. Anyway, the Russian army effort want to do what they have trained and equiped to do; in the Vuhlidar operation there was a standard mobile warfare advance using elite formed up regular units and it failed miserably. I think such attempts to advance by Russia are a boon for Ukraine. The Americans would have liked Ukraine to stop fighting in Bakhmut in the hope that the Russian army would try major offensives using the outdated maneuver over distance with large motorised formations method.
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10:56 Is Russia trying for encirclements like Mariupol, or are they wary of repeating that kind of urbanised last stand by hard core Ukrainian battalions? I think Russian military strategists perceive the casualty ratio in Bakhmut ECT (whatever it may be) is the best Russia can get anywhere in Ukraine; and so the fighting there is thought by the Russian military to be to Russia's advantage
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@harmless6813 There is no argument about the Russian casualties being at least 50% convicts. Or that Russia is bigger in population than Ukraine.
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@thomasherrin6798 The Russian forces have done the opposite of shrink in number since the begining of the war according to testimony by Gen Cavoli the other week, and he estimates they can fight on for a year. In a very recent interview General Milley said that neither side is likely to achieve their objectives. Those two figures have access to the very best intel (better than the Ukrainians have) How is the war going? It is going to go on without any decisive result.
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