Comments by "Sean Cidy" (@seancidy6008) on "Grain deal stand-off shows Russia's maritime weakness" video.

@andrzejbarcelonafrlk6416 He talks about how many Ukrainians soldiers have been killed, and how great the trained reserves of Russian manpower are. Those things favour Russia, but only if it goes all out to win and the US continues holding back the longer range missiles for HIMARS. What the US's objectives are is the main determinant of what happens. So far they are being cautious about what they give Ukraine, but so far Russia has not been drawing on its full potential strength. I think the American objective is to thoroughly discourage the Kremlin by demonstrating that only the most Pyrrhic of victories for them is possible, while at the same time never quite enabling Ukraine to sweep the Russian forces away. By my way of thinking Macgregor is about as good a guide to what happens as General Ben Hodges. Macgregor does not take into account how effective new US arms could be for Ukraine, and Hodges does not seem to understand why the US will not want Russia to be so hammered with ATACMS it might panic
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@andrzejbarcelonafrlk6416 If Ukraine drives the Russians back, they will accept they have lost fair and square? Hmmm, people who thought like that would not have invaded in the first place.
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Russia is a land power, it's Naval spending has been a compete waste of money and probably explains a big part of why the Russian army consistently underperforms, except in the South in the initial stages when Naval Infantry played such a prominent role in the Russian victory in the South. Turkey is in Nato and has planes and pilots capable of using the US nukes stored on Turkish airbases. Of course Russia does nor want trouble with Turkey, which sees itself as a mediator. Ukraine is not going to run out of money because it is backed by the West.
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@andrzejbarcelonafrlk6416 Russia has quality (ie intelligent and easily trained manpower) hat has barely been touched yet. Even though the current army of reservists are from backward Taiga regions that are the only ones really mobilised yet. you cannot ignore that Russia will have double the number of troops and will be able to have double that again quite easily. Ukraine has not got reserves to match that.
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@andrzejbarcelonafrlk6416 They are not green they are trained soldiers in the reserves who have been called up again. And they can man fortifications, three lines of which have already been constructed opposite Kherson on the east bank. Double the troops already and there will be more to follow.
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@andrzejbarcelonafrlk6416 There are also reports that there is a big drive for blood donations in Russia, which means they are expecting a huge number of casualties soon. There is going to be an big Russian offensive, and freeing the elite units in Kherson for a big push is probably a large part of why there is a withdrawal from the west bank..
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@andrzejbarcelonafrlk6416 Exactly, they have won every battle but the war keeps going on. And the Russians are getting more rather than less numerous.
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@andrzejbarcelonafrlk6416 It is apparent that Russia cannot win and Putin has zero intention of disengaging and is already gearing for a full albeit undercover mobilisation as that becomes necessary. Russia has made a terrible mistake, but the world is watching them; the Kremlin’s mindset is keep the war going at however great a cost or cease to be taken seriously (even by themselves). A hundred thousand Russians will killed in Ukraine before they’ll consider ending the war. With a quarter of a million of their countrymen dead or severely disabled in action and losing Crimea to the HIMARS rockets (allied to US surveillance pinpointing of everything they do, which they have no answer to). in a year from now Russia will start to think of tactical nukes use in terms of a final settling of accounts with Ukraine rather than a way to win.
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