Comments by "Sean Cidy" (@seancidy6008) on "Russia's Kharkiv offensive – what is the plan?" video.

@rmdomainer9042 The Ukrainian general staff who authorized the cross border raids (one of which came within striking distance of a thermonuclear repository) must be very pleased with the Russian reaction. They will be indubitably be getting a congratulatory phone call from Zelensky requesting more of the same, eh?
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Ukrainian anticipation of the reaction to their raids is not discussed. It almost seems like he is saying Ukraine does not need plans, because can rely on Russia to react in a way counterproductive to the interests of the Russian army.
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@squireson When has he ever given the Russians credit for doing anything right? More than once (eg the Kremlin dome flagpole strike), he has said something cannot be a Russian false flag because the Russians are not competent enough to carry out such an operation. Or even focus the camera equipment to film it.
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@jasft9746 He is genuinely popular among Russians, and now he can announce some low cost territorial gains and boost morale. The cross border raids were never going to discredit him, and have backfired spectacularly.
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He is constrained, he cannot be positive about anything Russia is doing. Not that he wants to say the Russians are managing anything well, but he couldn't anyway.
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The US's reactions seem calibrated more to keep Russia from panicking that help Ukraine to win in a meaningful sense.
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@balaclavabob001 The Chindit raids were followed by, and may well have been caused by, the Japanese trying the same trick, just as staff officers warned Wavell it might. Ukrainian Special Forces command orchestrating the Belgorod incursions, especially the last one that got uncomfortably close to a non conventional depot, ought to have predicted there would be a response. Anders seems to be saying this, like everything they do, has predictably gone wrong for Russia and Ukraine could (and will continue to be able to) count on that always happening.
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@ciarandoyle4349 Russia built trenches and laid mines opposite Kharkiv. That was planning for a defensive contingency. The Ukrainians seem to have not dug in, and so lacked proper trenches, which explains why they had to fall back .
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@nozhki-busha Is the Ukrainian defence line protecting Kharkiv so ideally placed and well fortified that they are sending good units as reinforcement to mediocre ones already on that line? Is Kharkiv, previously an area safe from enemy artillery and a useful supply hub for that reason, now in danger of being exposed to Russian fires because the defence line, such as it is, was built just right?
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Ukraine attacks across the border causing the Kharkiv limited offensive worked out well for Ukraine? Hmmm.
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The standard Western tactic in modern war is pin with fire and concentrate for maneuver against an enemy weak spot to break through to an objective. The first Russian offensive maneuver in years has no serious territorial intent and yey opening up a new front line. I think they are trying to use active defence to engage the entire Ukrainian army along an immense front line, and soak up any new Ukrainian troops that are being drafted.
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@johnadam2885 Nothing that Westerners talk about has much affect on the Russian perception of the war.
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@leninstreet The Russian have made their first decent territorial gain in years. Of course they are going to reenforce it. Lapon knows the area is open country suitable for offensives from having to retreat back through it in 2022. And most people think the offensive was prompted by the Ukrainian cross border raids, which have proved to be counter productive from Kiev's standpoint. So whose side are the most incompetent generals on?
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If this is the effect of a bad Russian plan then Ukrainians better hope Russia does not come up with a terrible one!
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Ukraine knew all about the forming up of the Russian 50 thousand force near Belregod. What Kiev did not know was the lack of proper prepared positions for defence.
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The morale of Ukrainians can be affected by a relatively minor tactical defeat if it is taken as a sign the tide is turning. And morale has strategic implications.
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@kalinmir Journalists understand the strategic importance of morale. Russia's has got a boost.
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Of course they are going to seize on any opportunity that comes up without regard to whether it is 'not in the plan'.
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@rmdomainer9042 No reason to stop the border raids and cause the Russians to stop needing to enlarge the buffer zones right along the border then.
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@MarcosElMalo2 Defence in depth is having to be used because the continuous concrete fortification line is lacking. Does Ukraine have a shortage of cement or troops?
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@pseudonym745 The Rissians are so predictable Ukraine ought to have been able to predict the effect of Ukraine trying to join Nato on Russia. Russia's job was to prevent Russia from being invaded; Ukraines job was to keep Ukraine safe. The Kharkiv offensive WAS anticipated, it is just silly to think only Ukraine can have sucess in that open terrain.
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@noahway13 Standard Soviet tactics a la Kursk.
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Logical_if_ there was a strong line of fortification for the Russians to be attrited on.
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There are targets other than Kharkiv they could go for. The area where Ukraine took back all that territory in 2022 has a proven lack of obstacles to an offensive .
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The Russians want to overstretch the Ukrainian army; encircling their cities, would overstretch the Russian army.
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Journalist understand the importance of perceptions though, and how are the Russians going to be persuaded to stop if as a result of tactical victory they think things are going well. strategically?
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Journalists understand morale and haw important perceptions are.
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Shouldn't parts of the front under pressure be reinforced by fresh units held in rear areas as a reserve rather that taken from another part of the front line?
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