Comments by "" (@MrEab2010) on "Trump Gets Horrible Polling News About His Standing With Republicans" video.

  1. there are 210 million registered voters in the U.S. as of May 2024. Of these voters, 38.8 million, or 18.48%, are registered Republicans. Among registered Republicans, Farron claims that 60%, or 23.28 million Republicans, identify as MAGA. (The research I've done shows MAGA identification among the GOP as 50% tops, or 19.4 million, as of August 2023, but I'll use his percentage.) If Trump is convicted, he allegedly loses 4% of these people, or 931,000. That leaves 22.35 million MAGA Republicans, or 57.6% of the party, who in theory will vote for him. None of these figures, however, include likely voters. If 20% of the GOP (roughly the Nikki Haley vote) drifts away from Trump, his voter pool in the party is 31.04 million, an extra 8.69 million more than the MAGAs. Compare this to the 49 million voters who identify as Democrat (23.3%), that means 41.78% of registered voters identify as a member of the two major parties while apparently 58.22% do not. If you split the unaffiliated voters down the middle it leaves an edge of 10.2 million, or 4.9%, to the Dems. In 2020, Biden won the popular vote by 4.5%. These figures tell me that the only way Biden can lose in 2024 is through a narrow lose in the Electoral College or record low Democratic and unaffiliated turnout.
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