Comments by "JohnDoe" (@JohnDoe-my5ip) on "Reventure Consulting" channel.

  1. It’s not similar to 2008, at all. The only similarity is that homes are overvalued by (at least) 50% on an inflation-adjusted basis. In 2008, you had a true glut of housing, caused by a residential construction boom that spanned two decades. This time, we have houses sitting empty because the builder wants to charge 2x what it’s really worth, because the supply shortage is that severe. Wall Street will pay these prices because of the expected rents, and they’ll package it up into some REIT so dumb money (ie your retirement funds) gets left holding the bag. Everyone should want builders to produce enough housing to cause a market correction. This market is deeply abnormal. But it differs from 2008 significantly, because the “glut” of homes has literally tens of millions of potential buyers at $300k instead of $700k. 2008 had way more homes than potential buyers. They were literally giving homes away in the Rust Belt. You’re not gonna see copper thieves destroying any value from vacant homes, because vacancy rates are near record lows.
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  2. By the time they rebuild these properties from the hurricane, the next one will be on the way. The real value of these properties in coastal Florida is $0. Tampa and St Pete will be abandoned in our lifetimes.
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