Comments by "" (@tomk3732) on "Wagner Assault Units Are Storming SOLEDAR!" video.

Essentially Ukraine is running low on troops and equipment while Russia is getting ready for some offensives or at least some threats of one. Ukraine is now clearly loosing the war & if they hold on so dearly for long we may see spectacular collapse of the whole UA army.
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If they pressure Russians hard around Kremina they may step back - they are flexible. They can step back and counter etc. Russians are pushing all over the place - Ukies only in Kremina.
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Problem is Ukraine is wasting 10s of thousands defending it! Defending this city is as stupid as defending Mariupol was. Let me remind you stupid Ukies defended Mariupol with up to 10k troops. They lost 10k as KIA or POWs. Meanwhile Russians drunk some vodka and wasted defenders with artillery and air strikes. Same was US led battle of Falujah - defenders smashed by artillery and bombers got over 10x casualty rate. Defending to the last man is not a winning strategy if your enemy can accept losses itself.
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And Moscow is very happy for it - fire bag works great! Moscow hopes UA will send more troops to that front line so it stands for another 6 months.
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Well, Wagner has taken super heavy losses but they are tiny compared to UA losses. Russia can hope and dream about 2nd Mariupol but such epic wins are not everyday. Still Ukraine is taking a huge beating, and from Moscow perspective that is all that counts.
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The figure of 60k is a low estimate based on multiple units at well bellow full strength.
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@HarryBolzz Sure, but Ukraine is loosing 100s per day KIA - what about that fertilizer? No need for cell phone giveaway either.
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@Ryan I did take into account the accuracy! This is why in the best case scenario it is 100 to 1 while in the worst case it is less than 75 to 1. Russians never stormed any cities stupidly - in fact they avoided cities and only storming was of Mariupol - with about 10x UA losses (as seen in other similar battles where losses are known). Then when front stabilized they changed tactics. Severodonetsk and Lisichiansk were indeed bloody battles but Russians used same tactics as in Mariupol - same as they are using right now in Bakhmut. Here UA losses are massive - we are talking 8x - 10x Russian losses. The idea is now that Russia prefers city combat as it can inflict epic losses on UA in city combat. "they cannot capture even one town" - why would they - it would take lots of losses to take Bakhmut quickly - better let idiot UA to send new brigade every few days to crush it - its an excellent fire bag. Once city is eventually taken next city will be a fire bag. The war is run far more with feelings and emotions on UA side, while on Russian side its calculated business without caring whatever someone will say "oh you guys suck, had to retreat, cannot take a city etc. " - the end result counts. We do know Russian losses quite precisely, plus minus 100 men.
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They have system of even longer range & similar capability. I am sure they use these. Problem is luck of targets - you need targets.
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@Ryan Yep, Ukraine is done for - has been a while back - sure they can fight to last Ukrainian - so what, will not help them.
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@Ryan Ukraine is not just loosing, they are badly loosing. So what they have taken some land - they have suffered huge losses and now are on the defensive. So what Russians have not captured Bakhmut - Ukraine needs a new brigade there every 4 days or less. May I remind you that after initial gains and initial pushbacks Germany in WWI also were stuck - till they finally collapsed - similar situation here. Writing is on the wall. Ukraine needs a miracle to even tie now.
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@Ryan Well, you can count this as a war similar to WWI - trench welfare. So in WWI they fired 1 million shells per day (all sides) - which makes all the Russian logistics issues a joke BTW. They need around 200 shells to kill a person. In this war as in WWI most killing is done by artillery accounting for around 80%. Since artillery improved a lot from WWI days the number of shells per kill at 75 - 100 is reasonable. Also given drone corrections etc. Heck, even less than 75 is possible. We know Russia is firing at least 6x as many shells as Ukraine. We know Russian losses almost to a single man and we are quite well versed in allied losses. So we can start computing lower and upper bound on UA losses. See, 100% facts based approach. In Bakhmut Russia is firing around 10x as many artillery shells. Thus UA losses there despite defense are easily at 6x Russian losses. I will not even mention the fact that Russia has better trained and far better equipped (in armor) troops. That certainly helps.
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@Ryan Why would Ukraine fall given their 100k or around that killed so far and at least 500k wounded / others? Their total reserves are over 2 million at the moment. Also many of the 500k wounded were wounded multiple times, some three times (the actual number is probably much higher). Ukraine still can go on like this for few more years. The cut off is around 10% of the population - which they are still far from reaching.
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@Ryan I am usually a pessimist, but I wish you all the best.
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@johnmartin7158 Yes, but if we use WWI as analogy and do some computations we see that Ukraine is getting its teeth knocked in.
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@jacksonpierce3996 Well, Moscow knows they simply need to continue doing what they are doing and they have the war won. Ukraine knows this and is hoping for a miracle, they even have a name for such miracle - black swan event. This can be getting NATO into the war or similar large event. Without a miracle Ukraine will be forced sooner or later to either negotiate or Putin will invest into regime change.
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