Comments by "" (@tomk3732) on "How is the war going? — Mid August 2022" video.

The sky was blue bird - i.e. not even single cloud and there were 1000s of people on the beaches. So I think we can safely assume no cruise missiles were used. No one noticed any helicopter activity either so we can remove commando strike. I also doubt it was a missile such as ATACMS - it would be noticed as well - as you mention at least attempt should be made by air defenses and if not then 1000s of people should see something. Finally craters left by the strike are beyond massive - we are talking about crater diameter of well over 30m and depth of maybe 5 or 6. Big enough to swallow an airplane. Certainly not HIMARS (see strike on bridge) and certainly not small SRBM. If it was Ukraine all I can think of is a drone attacking ammo dumps.
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@jnygaarddk When they hit some oil depots and caused little fire helicopters were filmed - and it was not over a busy beach area.
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Not really, Russia is moving forward in Donbass and most Russian troops were pulled back. So now its mostly UA vs UA war.
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I do not think there is much chance Russia can loose. Given Russia constantly on the winning side there is little criticism from its people or personnel. Since chances of Russia loosing are low I doubt we see too much of it.
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@johnathanhughes9881 You do not understand that Russia is not doing the most fighting there. Most fighting and most dying is done by people of Donbass fighting for their freedom. There are also Chechens there, Wagner group etc. And then there are Russians. I do not dispute the 60k casualties figures. Nor 80k. Usually for each dead there are 3 wounded so the 80k would suggest 20k dead and 60k wounded. Which does seem very plausible. BUT this is for Donbass + Russia + Wagner etc. Brunt of fighting is by Donbass Ukrainian militia against Kiev regime. So they have taken most KIA and casualties. So my numbers are actually, quite high - i.e. the top estimate of 9k is more then US estimates suggest! Thus I am not "optimistic" at all. As for liberation of Donbass - see above whom is dying - I feel they are not dying to be salves ;) Azov battalion is actually a regiment and there are many regiments. At least 10% of UA forces are Nazi - similar to SS in Nazi Germany. There are pure Nazi - i.e. they believe in racial superiority of Ukrainians over Russians (and anyone else). Standard Nazi stuff. No Russians are no Nazi - they are RED ;) Russia is very multi ethnic, racial superiority crap would never work there ;) Regarding demilitarization, you must be joking about better military - they are sending people with few weeks of training that are turned into mince meat and then sending more. Ukrainian losses are epic high. Some front lines have many "volksturm" brigades just slowly getting creamed. Regarding these two joining NATO - this is actually not a big deal at all - you do not see any epic levels of anger in Moscow at all. Both countries have been somewhat unofficially in NATO since 1991 and they both threatened to join NATO if Russia invades Ukraine. Both are non issues. Neither of them will station (at least they never had such plans before) offensive weapons on their border with Russia - so non threat - non issue. Thus I stand by stopping NATO expansion - expansion to Ukraine. Full success. No NATO in Ukraine. Ever. Well, as for getting Russians out of Ukraine - how about Ukraine leaves Donbass alone? Why are they there occupying? Why they don't leave these people alone in peace? No one there wants to be under Kiev boot. This is why they are being liberated. They are fighting, every man, and many women, for their freedom. Just like US did against UK in their war of independence. Lugansk is already free of Kiev occupational force and soon Donetks will be as well. How can you support oppression? How can you deny people their God given right to determine their future? US won its independence. I think Donbass also has the same right. Kiev regime troops should pack up and leave and then war will end.
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Depends how many pp can Ukraine throw - they are loosing at least 30k a month to various causes - maybe as much as 50k now. But still they can thrown 1000s more. As long as supply of pp is there and west sends weapons it can last for more then a year. I expect Russia to take Donbass sometime by September. But Dniepr river is still far AND Russia does not have man power to annex whole right hand side of Dniepr. So I am confused as to the game plan.
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There are zero indications Ukraine can turn around a war it has lost. It has not done anything in Kherson to suggest that they can do anything more then a local counter attack. I do not see any danger for Russian forces around Kherson. There is currently zero chance of cutting off supplies. Essentially the question now is where all the Russians have gone. And what will Russia's next move be. Where will they attack?!
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Russian regular army is well trained and has no issues - they easily cut and slice through UA lines. Problem is too few of them. General mobilization main issue is economic downturn. Russia would easily smash Ukraine but be set back 10 years. US game plan is to sacrifice Ukraine for such mobilization. And Z is willing to do so to push forward US agenda.
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Phase 5 Russian general counter offensive pushes Ukraine towards Dniepr river. Phase 6 despite efforts to have peace Russia is forced to mobilize and takes over all of Ukraine Phase 7 puppet UA state is created, half of Ukraine is annexed by Russia
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Yes - what could happen is norther Russian forces reach the river - only 30km away, and soother forces take out bridges to Nikolayev. Then Ukrainian troops would be trapped as it takes time to prepare new bridges + they have 500k in the city to deal with. This would be just like Severtsk.
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Its like offensive #66 - it has no purpose other then get pro UA excited.
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I think it is going towards Russia being forced to conscript and either control half of Ukraine - or removing Ukraine from the map all together for a short period of time (puppet government in 1/2 Ukraine). The leader in Kiev is run by US and does not see what is good for Ukraine.
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War of attrition works great for Russia - this is why Russia has chosen such war. There is currently no danger in Kherson of any supply cut - anyone thinking such is delusional.
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@allanmason3201 There are videos of Russians doing just what you described. Trucks, buses - no issues. The missiles on Antonovsky bridge did little damage as well - Russians simply replaced the deck with ... new deck - so new concrete blocks. A crane lifted old ones and disposed of them while then placed new ones.
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@allanmason3201 Its not patched up - they actually replaced the deck - so its better then what it used to be. Its like they did not fix a tire, they just replaced with brand new tire.
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@jnygaarddk Also find it questionable - this was supposedly ready to use ammo - so I find it unlikely that charges were placed more than few hours before the blast. I rather believe it was internal - almost entire UA army in Crimea joined RF after Crimea became part of Russia. Maybe some of these pp had change of heart.
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@williamjackson5942 Look at pictures again, they were NOT within the earth dams protecting the aircraft.
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LOL! Russia picks and chooses where to attack.
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@terjeoseberg990 Well, not really - Belarus and Russia have nuclear defense agreement and NATO does not protect invading forces - so liberal use of nukes would quickly decimate Polish forces & winds usually blow from east to west.
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Problem is Russia is degrading Ukraine at about 10x the pace Ukraine is degrading Russia.
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Harbin Tiger Even pro UA live map says otherwise ;)
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Russia will not give it up - this is their getaway to rest of Ukraine and to Odessa.
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@cethironwood Nah, they have multiple bridges and now worries about supplies. They have few ferries as well. There is zero danger of Ukraine taking Kherson this year or ever.
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But from WHERE is Ukraine to get this massive supply of equipment? No one in the west has it!
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Harbin Tiger Cut off from what ;) For cut off troops they sure act strange going on fire recon missions etc. ;)))
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@scipioafricanus5871 LOL, do you see Ukrainians attacking???? Nope. Russian did some recon in force. Otherwise for "cut off" it is sure very quiet. In fact cut off troops seem to be the one on the attack ;)
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How would you hit a ferry anyways? Why would Ukraine care about civilians??? Come on. There are multiple alternative bridges build already so zero worries regarding any supply problems.
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@williamjackson5942 And how do they know where such ferry is at any given time ;)
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@LarsRyeJeppesen Depends how much load is actually needed. But there are no worries with bridges. Ukraine strikes the bridges with HIMARS and Russians fix them. Plus they have pontoon bridges.
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Which shows how delusional Ukraine is. There is no chance Russia is giving up Crimea which is officially part of Russia. Crimea has no chance of being in Ukraine in any foreseeable feature. This shows war will continue until Ukraine is totally spent and Russia annexes about half of it. One has to understand that 95% of Russians and their pro western opposition see Crimea as Russia (i.e. any change in Kremlin even pro western one will not change status of Crimea). Asking Russia to give Crimea up is more then asking US to give up Texas (!)
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LOL, why - there are plenty of roads that can be used to supply troops in Kherson. Putin can end the war quicker BUT that would cost him. So he tries to not pay. Ukraine already lost the war - we are just seeing how much they lost and when they loose it.
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@Thermopylae2007 Well, not just that. Russia has won the war & is in full control. They can attack more or attack less. They are currently opting for "Syria" i.e. local rebel groups supported by Russians. This has plummeted Russian casualties to almost none while stupid Zielinski insists on holding the line at any costs causing massive Ukrainian casualties. Since Russia drives they can: - send more troops and speed up - escalate vs. the west The only option for Ukraine is desperation - such as continued shelling of nuclear power plant hoping for disaster... like Russians will care. They simply retailate by hitting a nuclear power plant near Lviv when wind blows west. At current "Syria" pace war could last a very long time - even years. Russia slowly takes over Donbass and then creates buffer.... and then idiots in the west send longer range weapons to idiot Zielinski and Russia needs to create bigger buffer.
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@anderspuck Why you see a problem? Russia has like 2 extra bridges already + they just fixed Antonovsky brodge. The dam bridge has only minor damage and video shows trucks and busses have no issues driving over it.
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There is zero chance of tide turning. Ukraine since start of the war had zero success on counterattack. Not even once.
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@johnathanhughes9881 But there are NO large flows of dead - if there were we would know about it from Russians themselves. Heck, you can even estimate dead based on numbers of funerals etc. Russia proper lost maybe around 8000 dead, maybe 9000 dead at most. It is painfully obvious to any outside observer that Russia controls large parts of territory formally Ukrainian and is expanding on this land. Tool used is called a map. Direction overall is for continued Russian gains - liberation of Donbass and possibly annexations of different regions.
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@johnathanhughes9881 There cannot be more dead as Russia does not have enough forces deployed to support much higher number of dead. 8k-9k also means that there is at least 30k wounded! That is a lot, and only 15k of these come back to fight. Thus the numbers I quoted seem very realistic - I hope you realize that Russia right now has very few soldiers deployed mostly in support roles and like 75% of actual combat is done not by Russian troops. You are stating western opinion on what Russian goals are. The actual Russian goals are: - liberation of Donbass (mostly complete) - denazification (hard to determine this, but many Azov style units were smashed) - demilitarization (hard to determine this but certainly Ukraine has little equipment left) - stopping expansion of NATO (full success) So as you can see Russia almost accomplished its main goal and it is certain they will succeed in it. As for Donbass - the Minsk agreement said autonomy. Ukraine refused any autonomy. Ukraine refused any referendums etc. Or any discussion on the status or any attempts to let people say what they want to do. Russia would be 100% OK with removing their troops if Ukraine did the same BUT Ukraine would not. Why is that? Well, if you do referendums there it would be clearly in favor of Russia (fair ones, with UN only troops). As for pounding it flat - well, what do you suggest they do - most of the fighting is done by pp of Donbass - I am sure they are not happy with destroying their own cities. But Ukraine does not care - its not their cities getting smashed! Personally I seen no way around the war. It was necessary - there was no political solution to the problem at all. Some people you simply cannot nicely talk to - you have to kick their teeth in or out. This is what Russia had to do. Ukraine is same culture as them, they only understand force.
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@johnathanhughes9881 Russians are conscripting from Donbass, that is true. Kiev regime is also conscripting. Luck of training is certainly on both sides, but losses for Kiev regime are far more epic then for Russia + allies. How do I get it backwards - homes are of people of Donbass not of Kiev regime. It is war, both sides throw poorly trained troops - but for Kiev regime it is far and wide more common. I am glad you condemn Kiev for a change. Russia is NOT using conscripts to fight for someone else's land - that is what UKRAINE Kiev regime is doing. Almost all conscripts are used to fight right next to their homes while Kiev ones are 1000km away from their homes. Research Stephan Bandera and stop being a Nazi apologist / sympathizer. Its a lie to claim holocaust did not happen. Nazism is officially accepted in Ukraine and is official - i.e. it is set in laws of the land - they accept Nazi formations to their army and they accept Nazi heroes as their heroes. Officially. By government. According to you Nazi Germany was not Nazi. They also had around 10% ;) I stand by Azov and SS - in fact I would say that I would rather deal with German Nazi SS then with Ukrainian Azov units. SS was more ... western oriented. Level of sheer brutality was much lower. My grandfather fought in WWII against both German and Ukrainian Nazi and Ukrainians are far and wide worse. Ukrainians are demilitarized b/c their losses are much, much higher ;) Ukraine supply of manpower is not endless especially in a country that quickly depopulated - even before the war. It feels no one wants to live under this regime. As Soviet republic they had 54m. just 20 years later they dropped to 37m. Now they are what, well under 30m? If we start to include Russian liberated and occupied territories they are what, 25m? I stand by my assertion of NATO. Its you whom are lying.
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@seimen4348 Russia already won this war. Russia can continue finishing it off for a long time. We see how long does the other side last. They do not have endless supply of manpower.
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@Green_Moon77 Oh, its a one party democracy, got it ;) Russia at least has systemic opposition - so it is far more of a democracy then Ukraine. Navalny as per west has support of around 2% of Russian population. I.e. he has less support then communists or extremists. Granted Russia is flowed democracy BUT Putin at least cares about popular opinion. In Ukraine all opposition (ALL) is in prison or exiled. In Russia you mostly quote Navalny - not everyone. Yes, racism is at the heart of the conflict. Russian MIR is based on Soviet ideology which means it is supper opposed to racism. Its allergic to it more then Jews to pork. After all, you have now fights for Bahmut and Donetsk People Republic forces are liberating their city via Patric Lumumba street - dedicated to an African leader whom fought for the rights of black people against imperialistic colonialism. Regarding your claim about Asians being used more then say people from Moscow, it is as true as same situation in US where people from poor neighborhoods, a lot of Black people are used as cannon fodder. I assume you mean US is very racist with this as well - the truth is that poor people want money and people in Moscow are not poor. Has zero to do with race :) On the other hand Ukraine is a very racist country with strong Nazi overtones where racial superiority is a very important thing. After all, official hero of Ukraine, Bandera, demanded that any true Ukrainian has to have proof that ALL 4 grandparents hailed from Ukraine. Anyone else was to be killed or run out. Thus we have all these Nazi units and hate for anything and anyone that is not Ukrainian. This is why Donbass people, with help from Russia, rose up against oppressive state & are now fighting for their freedom. Why you are against people fighting for their freedom? Are you also against US gaining its freedom from UK?
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@Green_Moon77 LOL, Zielinski won against Right Sector.... too bad he was sponsored by the guy whom supported Azov.... so he "won" against them ;) Navalny did break some Russian laws and through sentence was over the top he was not killed or something like that - he is part of systemic opposition. He still controls his own party and political block. I.e. not all of his supporters were jailed (see my comment about Ukraine). As for running for office - HE DID RUN - see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexei_Navalny He did not win, but actually had some votes numbers in liberal sections of Russian society - like Moscow. In fact the numbers Navalny got were confirmed by Navalny campaign office as what they predicted he would get (i.e. he had no basis for saying fraud - his own campaign knew there is no chance & predicted the numbers +- 2%) Russia cannot be racists as racism is as allergic to Russians as sun to vampires. I.e. Russia is by far and wide less racist then say US. Its not even close. Like US is racism level 10 and Russia is 1. I am not racist at all, I simply say you do not know what you are talking about. People in Donbass were never oppressed.... I guess Jews were never oppressed by Germans as well huh? I guess it was just one giant conspiracy to get poor Nazi Germany.... The history of this predates FSB, or even KGB. It goes all the way to 1930s. You have zero clue as to what you are talking about. "It will end badly for him, for Russia and for you personally." I see we are now at personal level threats. I am strongly against Nazism as my grandfather fought Nazi (both German and Ukrainian) during WWII. Mass murdering psychopath was the current hero of Ukraine Stephan Bandera.
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@williamjackson5942 Same as you - if half of what you were saying was true Ukraine would have taken Moscow by now ;)
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@johnathanhughes9881 Its a civil war - the sooner you understand that the sooner you understand what is going on. Why did NATO invade Yugoslavia and carve out Kosovo? Was that right or was that wrong? If it was right so is Russian intervention in Ukraine. The rights of people of Donbass and Crimea cannot be ignored. West somehow fights for rights of people if it is politically convenient, for example, in Taiwan, but when its not "nice" for them they simply suddenly do not care about people's rights - like in Yemen. Ukrainians are NOT doing what Russians did in WWII at all - WWII was not based on civil war (we ignore the fact large number of Ukrainians joined the Nazi) it was invasion by foreign power to gain land that they had no neither any allies nor their people on it. Russians are helping their allay, DPR and LPR gain independence from Kiev. Both of these regions do not want to be part of Kiev run Ukraine. They have been clearly discriminated against in the last decade (but no genocide) and have clear case of going their own separate way. Look at Canada. The same issue was with Quebec. Exactly the same. Yet it was solved in a peaceful manner. Why Kiev regime could not do that? In 1970s Quebec demanded freedom, bombs exploded etc. Canada countered with legal way for Quebec to leave Canada via referendum. In order to win French over, full language rights were given! Many other laws were passed to show that English Canada and French Canada should be one. So far after two close referendums Quebec is still part of Canada. No need for a war. Contrast this to Kiev regime whose first move was to make Russian language, more popular in Donbass then French in Quebec, to be illegal. I fully support the struggle of people of Donbass for freedom, same as I support other struggles for freedom. You are on the wrong side of history for supporting tyranny. All people have basic human rights.
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@johnathanhughes9881 VAST majority of troops fighting in Donbass were born in Donbass and used to have Ukrainian citizenship. It is a civil war. What gives anyone the right to deny Russia power of intervention? Do you also deny power of intervention to US? How does that work?
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Not really - we do not see any of these extra troops at all - in fact speculation is what is Russia planning. Main talk is massive attack on Zaporozia.
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Why would Russia evacuate? they can easily move heavy equipment such as tanks over. They have spare bridges.
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