Comments by "" (@tomk3732) on "Binkov's Battlegrounds" channel.

  1. Well, Chinese did show they can quickly amass large aircraft formations and send them to Taiwan AIZ. That shows they do know how to do a thing or two. Neither US nor China have anything close to at peer experience in air war. Certainly US has advantage if they met in the middle of nowhere but China is on home front defending meaning its logistics is easier not to mention extra systems that can be used.
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  2. One has to remember that it was Cuba with help from Soviets that brought freedom to large parts of Africa. Imperialists were defeated & slavery ended. Hats off to Cuba - for no gain of their own, just to bring freedom to the people. Sometimes communists do stick to their principles.
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  3. So far Binkov, same as with Armenia, over estimated defensive potential. After day 1 Ukraine does not look too good, Russians moved in at least 25km deep and easily won border conflict. They have also taken both port cities and control airport next o Kiev. Losses of life so far have been light.
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  4. Why Germany cannot do the same for Poland??? Why? I mean it is clear to anyone in Poland that Polish naval yards are unable or unwilling to build anything.
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  5. Russia has won the war. We are now in the phase where we are establishing what exactly the winner will get. As for casulties, in static scenario or with Ukriane failed counter offensive, we look at artillery advantage. Ukraine is fighting regular war, so artillery advantage of Russia directly translated into heavy UA losses. Thus I just multiply Russian losses by 3x to get conservative estimate of UA losses. During counter offensive UA suffered sometimes even 5x 6x or higher losses per day.
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  6. Without hot war China will surpass US in real dollars in the next decade or so. Its not too hard - Chinese need to make less per capita then in Poland in order to swim by US. Its not a "Very High Mark" they need to achieve.
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  7. Both 1967 and 2020 were just clashes - 1962 was a mini war.
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  8. So this was three weeks ago. Today Russian drones of various types account for up to a dozen destroyed high value targets per day. They are alone accounting for far more equipment trashed than is replaced by the west. Drones alone.
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  9. It is fairly easy to say that any invasion of Venezuela would solidify the government against common enemy - US. So I doubt that US style Bay of Pigs would work. They would be crushed. It would quickly turn into another Vietnam. Obviously if US casualties do not matter its a victory - but for what? US would be saddled with another forever war.
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  10. Main problem for US is Chinese industrial total dominance. Once US lost tech edge at the beginning of the war, a year in both sides tech would be similar except China could out produce US by at least 5 to 1 if not more. Thus the question is not so much of reaching Bejing but more of can US hold even a sliver of Chinese land. US could have some support from allies but do not count on that without more or less twisting such allies hand and forcing them - which would not really create any "reliable" allies. Also amphibious landings need total dominance. Here it would not even be close. Remember D day - small channel and supremacy of epic proportions. Also look at how difficult invading Taiwan for China is - imagine how hard it would be to invade China from Taiwan ;) On the plus side I doubt China will reach Washington so all is good.
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  11. No one can invade Canada from the north as ... welll ... how would they get south? Russian invasion would take years just to walk over ;) Two young fugitives run into Canadian north in summer. Experts gave them 1 week. They committed suicide after 48h. Use air borne troops to take over Yukon - and do amphibious landings + take over port of Vancouver and/ or other facilities on the coast. This should not be too hard with say 4000 air borne troops and 6000 marines + most of Russian navy and airforce. Once foothold is taken there one could move in a lot of airforce to local airfields and wait for troops / supplies with regular ships. Canada would be forced to defend along Rocky Mountains - the most patriotic (mostly to defend itself) province is AB and its right there. On the other hand promising AB few pipelines will weaken their resolve. The other side has far more troops as it is home to the "traitors" aka Quebec. Yes, more troops but population far less willing to resist & maybe even there is a hint of convincing them to defect. As a Canadian I fail to see how we could defend as well as Russians think. After 1 year I am sure to re-learn my Russian.
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  12. Even with Soviet Union war scenario it was seen as impossible to take Spain. I fail to see how it is minor victory for France? B/c they taken some islands but not even an inch of Spain proper? Through France has bigger population and thus bigger economy it is not enough to overcome the mountains.
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  13. I totally disagree. I think it would be major Spanish victory especially in long term. They have far bigger economy and far bigger manufacturing sector and would easily arm themselves far more. As for attack on small peninsulas - one has to remember Poland, Hel 1939. Also a brigade size unit. Germany could not do anything and contemplated very costly marine assault. I.e. brigade size unit was able to hold off Germans with ease. There will be no way for Morocco to take Ceuta - geography is simply not on their side. As for Melilla maybe they could take it but Spain could simply invade Morocco - especially if war dragged on for months - much bigger Spanish economy in real $$$ and much bigger manufacturing sector would mean more arms. Not to mention bigger population. I.e. if you cannot defend - attack. Finally I doubt Moroccan soldiers are trained even near to NATO level.
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  14. Nah, too much time difference - they would know its a jet engine but would not have the tech to replicate the engine due to luck of alloy tech. First British jet entered combat duty in 1945 - expect more of the same.
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  15. I disagree - invading Malaysia would be suicide. Even through creating a buffer zone is a great idea it would expose friendly troops to attack on open ground by a significantly superior enemy. Also it would galvanize Malaysia as a country and turn offensive war into defensive war. Doing raids into Malaysia could be an option but holding territory would not be so great.
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  16. Essentially equipment and people losses for Ukraine are double Russian losses. There is no other way logically to keep balance. Thus Ukraine has lost now about 900 tanks permanently and few hundred in repair. Russia half that. I do not give Oryx website much trust, they purposely don't report known Ukrainian losses. Also many losses are mis represented.
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  17. A lot of fake info here. Donbass troops are very experienced. There numbers are 35+40k conscripts and growing. There are also at least 10k, more likely 20k Chechens. And few 1000s others - wagner, Ossetins etc. Actual Russian army is around 100,000. So Russian currently deployed (no support) troops are at most 200k. Russia can increase these numbers by max 50k. Maybe from other sources another 10k or 20k. But this is it. Russian forces were outnumbered in Kiev region by 4 to 5 to 1. This is why they could not advance and were pulled back. I think Ukrainian losses are at least 50% higher then Russian losses (Russian proper) - going on the attack does not mean higher losses - see Armenia war from 2020. AM in the mountains lost 1/3 more (!!!!) and this was Donbass style forts in the mountains.
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  18. This nicely underlines stupidity of Poland buying 250 Abrams tanks. Current Polish army does not have enough personnel to operate its current tanks by a wide margin. Current Polish stocks are around 250 Leopard tanks and few hundred T-72s. Most of these tanks are not in combat units. By comparison Germany has around 300 tanks (!). With these 250 Abrams tanks Poland will have biggest EU panzer army. Even if they get rid of most T-72s they will have the largest one. Number of attack helicopters that are modern (upgraded less then 30 years ago)? Zero.
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  19. @Ecard Ecardian They do have a navy - but "expansion" is not on their agenda - i.e. they are not as "militaristic" and not as "intrusive" as US is. When you look at US military its like 100% aggressive / invasion focused force. China as per video is mostly defensive force.
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  20. Well, he is just using logic. Deal with it. I even think Oryx numbers of Russian stuff are inflated. Just use what UA staff posts about Russian losses and assume they are talking about themselves then add a bit more.
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  21.  @Nothing_._Here  WTF are you talking about? what illegal bases - Russia has handful of bases overseas - US has almost 200. Again what bases? Where? What invasion of Latvia or Estonia? What for? When? If they wanted to invade they can just walk over. Why would they smuggle arms into the Baltic states and for whom? Only smuggling I see is standard criminal activity. There are tens of 1000s of arms smuggled form US into Canada every year. In 1991 Soviets were more or less disintegrated - you may read on history. This was at their weakest since 1920. There is large population of ethnic Russians in both Latvia and Estonia which both heavily discriminate against these populations. EU sometimes acknowledges that but usually pretends not to see. As long as both do not over do their blatant racism these Russians will not want to rejoin motherland. This is not just Russians - Lithuanians are racist against Poles as well - even through these Poles lived on that land longer then Lithuanians themselves. Problem with the Baltics is not Russians - it is rampant nationalism based on ethnicity.
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  22. No Soviets would certainly not attack earlier as on 16th they signed a document with Polish allay Japan. As far as Polish navy, author forgot the naval port at Hel - which held out to October - i.e. Polish navy in this scenario would resupply there.
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  23. Well if Turks press harder there could be more problems with ships colliding etc. Eventually this will force EU overlord to do something and sanctions against Turkey would send it quickly to the stone age. In fact sanctions against Turkey by EU are long overdue and should be implemented already with threat of heavy consequences. Turkey is too weak to be a big power - it is far weaker then Russia or Germany which are in their immediate area. Turkey is a regional power similar to say France or UK.
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  24. With Erdogan at the helm never say never.
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  25.  @greenling.  Simple, Russia is clearly achieving its main goals. Ukraine will never enter NATO. Ukraine will loose Russian speaking territory. Ukraine army is on the ropes. Ukraine has no economy. Ukraine army is smashed, with no prospects of replenishment. Meanwhile Russia is total opposite. IMF points to best economy in Europe. Russia surpassed Germany some time ago!
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  26. Polish idiotic current leadership thinks Poland will fight next war identical to WWII so they are preparing very, very well for a WWII, one more time. Current Polish #s are a bit higher, total around 144k. Poland has a lot of legacy Soviet stuff - and modern APCS - we are talking 2k. With German defeat Poland would not be invaded by the Soviets. Soviets waited for a pact with Japan to conclude to invade - they were very careful. Seeing Poland fending off Germany like that would give them a pause.
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  27. Land - lease was no longer in use in 1945. Soviet airforce was modern and not much weaker then allied. Who cares about navy - this is land battle. Take a look at the map and see what would you accomplish attacking from India - nothing other then waste of time and huge losses. As movie points out the main - 98% theater would be Europe.
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  28. ISIS, Azov, what is the difference?
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  29.  @_Since-1994  Well... they were.
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  30. If Turkey has nukes who else would want nukes? I think now Iran has an excellent case for having nukes. If Iran has nukes I bet SA will go out and buy itself some nukes. Imagine ME... with everyone loaded with nukes. And now know... these guys like wars.
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  31.  @СвинкаСкреппа  Not even that - multiple angles of same tank or mis represented tanks. I saw a video of "losses" of Russia where they pant V or Z on vehicles but you can clearly see some remnants of Ukrainian pixel stuff - so they even do this in Ukraine to boost morale.
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  32. Nah, Grippen are good but not that good. In tests with say F-22 they last like seconds. Su-35 can hold its own against F-22. Grippen is similar to F-16 class. I.e. Grippen is by far no match for Su-57 and would be toast if it cannot win BVR vs. Su-35. So his list is spot on - Grippen in capable category same as F-16 and same as say MiG-35 (preferably with AESA) which is just renamed MiG-29M2. Its one notch above older stuff like Su-27 (not upgraded) and one notch under Su-35.
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  33.  @nervsouly  Actually Polish government does not violate EU law. The EU says that its laws are superior to Polish laws. Poland says, show me where I signed any treaty that says so. EU responds that it was "verbal agreement". Poland says "with whom". EU says "he passed away". I.e. there are no treaties that say EU law is superior & Germany (and others) already overruled some EU laws. The difference PL makes is that it says "ALL". EU is totally out of line - no one signed anything, there is no treaty of any kind & they made it all up as to their laws being superior - when called on it they are now angry. PL is 100% correct in its position they are just doing it a very primitive way, it should be "white gloves" approach, soft, diplomatic - like Germans do.
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  34. Wow, Arjun is mediocre? Who knew - I thought it is the BEST TANK IN THE WORLD. Heck, even better then Bob Semple tank ;)
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  35.  @patrickklocek3332  No. They did not. They only ended slavery in their own countries - but not in their colonies where they were doing great. Hence why spread of communism in both Africa and Asia.
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  36. 2 - 3 week training was for Ukrainian national guard - not for Russians. Boot camp is about two months. Personally as someone whom been in the military, few weeks of refresher for non specialized roles is enough. Physical shape is more important. I predict 300k is for public consumption - the actual number is 500k or 600k. These guys are not GREEN - all served, most saw combat - they do not need a lot of hand holding. I expect first new units / recruits to hit the lines in the next few weeks. I expect around 100k by 6 week mark. I expect by 3 months mark almost all of 300k deployed.
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  37. There is no talk about logistics. Even through US is master of logistics and by far #1 in the world supporting all these troops 1000 of km away would not be easy. Also its not like UK would sit on its rear end - they would try to produce some arms or buy. One has to look at the D-day. UK was staging area - BIG. Assets were HUGE. US would not have any staging area like during D day. And even D day was a big deal moving troops just few km. Taiwan seems impossible for China - even through it is so much closer. If ignoring the losses and no nukes I agree - within a year UK would loose some land and within another year US may be in London. We have to see that it is more then 5 to 1 for US advantage. Incidentally Russia + China is... close to 5:1 as well ;)
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  38. Iran would secure a lot of systems for free or next to free from China and some from Russia. Nothing better to sap all US energy into a long war that would make Vietnam look cheap. Imagine trillions spent on Iraq - now multiply few times given larger area and much larger population with topography of Afghanistan.
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  39.  @PIRATE99A  Russia lowered interest rate to 14%. Meanwhile inflation is at over 20%. But inflation in Poland is higher then 20. We just see new figures for Turkey and they are over 70% (!!!)
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  40.  @wpariah  Power outages are due to them having a very rapid factory output growth after covid recovery combined with China trying to actually be green and reduce emissions. I doubt they would try to be green during a war, nor I doubt they would happily produce a lot of civilian goods.
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  41. LOL - the west would not politically survive if it attacked the reds & the reds would not survive politically if they did the same. You forget that a WAR is an extension of POLITICS - thus it is intimately tied. People would not fight if they did not have a good reason to fight - morale would fall to zero. Explain to a Soviet soldier why he needs to go to Paris or explain to US soldier why he needs to go to Warsaw. Churchill and UK by 1945 were of no value of any kind - only powers left were Soviets and US. What Churchill said and did was of little consequence. UK was no longer an empire - they "lost" that during the war.
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  42. Japan already "surrendered" before the nukes - Emperor commanded. Government just dragged their feet. Thus naval blockade would be a wise solution - they could not defy the Emperor forever.
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  43. Argentina 40 years ago was far stronger then today - at least in equipment. At the same time Falklands were poorly protected.
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  44. Ceuta would not fall - it has similar geography to Poland Hel, 1939. Brigade size unit. There was no way for Germans to break the defense. Imagine if Hel had help from mainland just few miles away - it would be impossible to take.
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  45.  @denzelsmashsymptom4264  You do not understand that it is not a company but brigade size unit. You also fail to understand that it does not matter Marocco has 200k or 2 million troops. They cannot use more then about a battalion at once due to narrow entry. So numbers are at parity. Mainland Spain is very close - well within artillery support range - check the map again. There certain would be air support and given larger Spanish airforce they would hold the air. I am not Spanish You do not know how artillery works - its not a nuke. Area of Ceuta is quite large & you would not be able to saturate bombard it - not even close. It would be targeted hits. But you enemy can do the same with their artillery and air assets. You do know that if your artillery can hit them - they can hit you as well, no? There were no fortifications both in Hel and Westerplatte. Air defensies of Morocco are not great. Plus air force could simply use stand off weapons. Since Spain has much, much better air defenses Moroccan air force could not touch Ceuta. You also need to read about places like Stalingrad etc. You bomb and they do not retreat - now what? Given that all Moroccan assets are within range except Chinese artillery I fail to see how they would not see losses. Bottom line is without air support and without ruling the sea there is no way it can be taken. Also Spain would simply replenish their troops - remove wounded etc. B/c Morocco would not control air nor sea to stop them. With larger Spanish economy, with larger military production I actually think Spain would do amphibious attack on Morocco and slowly take over whole peninsula and force Morocco to not only give up current possessions but even more. I.e. within say a year or two all area around Ceuta would be in Spanish hands. There is interesting idea about Singapore and its defenses. Its similar but more round and has a small ditch from mainland. If these guys think they can win - without any "mainland" support and with all their country in artillery range - Ceuta is fine. Simply they have enough assets to destroy enemy artillery through attrition.
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  46.  @Misterskillzz7  It was better then Blitzkrieg - look at Blitzkrieg - Germans moved much slower through Poland for example. After 1 week of fighting Russia already controls almost as much territory as Germany in 1939 did after over a month (!) I.e. Poland did much, much better in 1939 then Ukraine did in 2022.
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  47. Nah, so what they are NATO. US can choose to respond on its time schedule. No one talks about joining Estonia to Russia just say stopping geneocide by Estonian government. US would "react" just slowly enough for Russians to liquidate "undesirable" elements. The cease fire & move back home.
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  48.  @unilajamuha91  How on earth do you know what morale Russian army has? Have you done a survey? They are attacking when out numbered 2 to 1 or more. If their morale is low, what morale Ukraine has? Zero? Negative?
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  49. Early M1 was inferior to T-72 - without uranium plates it had much weaker armor. Certainly would be used through.
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  50. Pakistan never won a war against India. Previous wars show quick Indian advance. I doubt it will be "years" modern wars are not "years". Within a month Pakistan would either have to quit and surrender or use nukes. If it does not it would face more and more rapid Indian advance. I.e. writing would be on the wall. Remember that Pakistan would need similar time to organize as India.
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