Comments by "" (@tomk3732) on "Defense Politics Asia (DPA)" channel.

  1. Bahmut line of defense was already invalid about 10 days ago. Few days ago Slaviansk line was invalidated as Russians started to move west from it. In short Ukraine defenses were compromised by idiots - looking at you Zielinski. Hiding facts is also very bad - did not work for Germany in 1945. Essentially now Ukraine lost the war as there is no viable new defense line.
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  2. Russians are in Lisychiansk already and one of the two plants you talked about has already fallen - I assume the smaller one. Russians are making big advances now and its too late for UA forces to save much of Severdoneck or Lisichiansk troops. Road is under tank fire - so only light infantry running on their own two feet can break through easily. I expect Russians to tighten this in the next day or two. Feels like total collapse - this was not some orderly withdrawal from Zalote - it was a total collapse & Russians should push hard as long as they do so they may net far more troops.
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  3. Svitlodarsk --- note Poles confirm that Russian forces have crossed the bridge and moved few more km. This is from "Nowy Lad". Probably villages on the other side of the river are all taken. This is significant as river was a major obstacle! Note if Poles confirm this would be almost the same as Ukraine confirms.
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  4. When you do an offensive, take heavy losses and the enemy counter attacks takes land you had before the whole affair! This is beyond epic fail.
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  5. There is a video of dozens of UA vehicles destroyed - dozens in just one location. I doubt Ukraine will be able to hold this bridgehead for long unless they want to totally bleed out.
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  6. This is similar to Kharkiv front. Russians will not let Ukrainains take land - if they by some luck do, they counter and take it back. This sort of shows why war for Ukraine is LOST.
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  7. Facts count. Ukraine destroyed a bridge around Irpin and they cannot go there - they given up position. They taken that decision ONLY after realizing they cannot hold that position and there is no chance of future retaking it, at least from that angle. This means they luck resources to a) hold b) retake. Thus claiming encirclement that is way bigger operation just like less then 48h later is ... a bit rich in propaganda.
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  8. There reason Ukrainians did this counter attack was to avoid forces south of Mitokale to be encircled - if Russians taken Syrodme then the 2k or so troops to the south would be totally cut off. This is all nice and such BUT Russians are moving more and more from the rear and will threaten multiple cauldrons in multiple directions.
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  9. I think politics 20/20 is a bit over the top ;) Maybe 5/20 - there are not political parties, opposition is in jail & I would be suspicious of any elections.
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  10. How are they protecting EU and from what threat? To Haag for trail by whom and for what? Why would attack by some old drones be devastating to Russian morale? Primitive Iranian drones have a range of 2500km.
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  11. 13km is not a big deal on a trail, but they most likely will avoid the road and go through the forest - where they will have to be very careful. This is a very long day - and some may not make it through. Russian drones with thermals would help in pin pointing the location of little groups for artillery strikes.
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  12. Shopping center was legit target - there is a russian drone video showing it used for artillery position.
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  13.  @christophertriantis4993  Nah, Russia won this war. What we are seeing is Ukraine making sure the win is not much more then what Russia wanted to win.
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  14. it has to be seen in the context of a) Mariupol had mostly Russian population and is to be main port city of DPR - so why destroy it completely b) Azov is NAZI and killing them is one of main goals of the war c) the sooner Mariupol falls the sooner encirclement of army of Donbass can start and thus end of the war so its a) + c) vs. b)
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  15. I think it will be much faster then 2-3 months. Much. Reason is that there are no big fortifications there & no big stores of ammo / food. Urban area is also much, much smaller.
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  16. First - 6sec! I do not believe Ukrainian claim of recapture. It is not confirmed by any reliable sources.
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  17. Unlikely. There are no withdrawals. I expect Russians will hold this position at any cost. And Ukraine is bleeding so hard they are now searching whole front to get more into the meat grinder.
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  18. In short offensive is going very poorly. after 8 days Ukraine controls slightly more than on day 1. Only in 1 area Ukraine advanced a bit, only max of 7km, now less. Defensive line is still over 10km away. Plan was to reach defensive line on... day 1 (!!!!) By week one, WSJ reports UA lost 15% of donated equipment (!!!)
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  19. Building is called "Tax Commission / inspection". It could be related to port facility and duties / taxes paid there. Regarding flag rising - there is no other noise in the area and guys are standing like on a parade - so territory for at least 1km around is taken and safe, probably 1.5km. If there was closer fighting you would hear it in the distance & they would not stand so "care free".
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  20. They have far more than 6 brigades. Now they have a reason to take Sumy region and annex it.
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  21. Nah, Makarivka is almost 100% retaken. But they may loose it during the night. Ukraine is trying really hard to make this work at any cost. I think its mostly for PR purposes now.
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  22. Yeah, funny guy... a comedian.
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  23. Ukrainians have huge man power advantage, Russians did not. But that is about to change. We will see more open combat in winter and spring.
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  24. Of another note is that this is history repeat. Front looked similar to today, Nazi troops held similar lines and Russians did big Izium offensive but it failed. This time around, Russians had success and it did not fail - see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Izyum%E2%80%93Barvenkovo_offensive The operation was aimed at encircling German troops in Donbass. Now Russians have success and thus they are encircling Ukrainian troops in Donbass. I suspect Ukraine is too weak to remove Donbass army & these guys will have to be sacrificed for Zielinski to continue his begging offensive in the west. If US stays firm this only will cost Ukraine heavy losses and a success of Putin's campaign to eliminate Ukraine's military power completely.
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  25. Yeah but Sloviansk, the biggest city left in Donbass is like 20km to the south. So if they engage new Ukrainian position 5km away, they will be only 15km away from Sloviansk. They will easily be able to start shelling defenses in Sloviansk and this is why I said battle of Sloviansk has started.
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  26. One ship definitely sunk or scrapped. I do not think there was much ammo on that ship - it was docket yesterday and unloaded. If it was fully loaded with ammo you would see some... fireworks - note what happened in Halifax when ammo ship exploded - 1000 dead and half of the city blown off. So I don't think this is even close. The other two ships are fine, minimal damage probably from debris falling on them. This is why they put out fires quickly. Overall embarrassing for the Russians - it could be b/c of news coverage of the ship which was geo-located - so bad OPSEC.
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  27. First!
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  28. There is no way they can supply 20k troops through some dirt roads. 2nd road is under fire control of RF and that road already involved some dirt re-routing. Retreating through this mess for 20k troops is out of question unless in small groups leaving most / all equipment behind. Unless they have some miracle these 20k are gone.
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  29. I do not think so. It looks like Russians have totally moved out of the area.
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  30. Russians probably shorten the front and use Kherson as a front city. I doubt Ukraine will capture the city or Russia will let them as it would be a major political blow. But this is hard to say - Russians may be much more concerned with taking Mariupol and finishing off army of Donbas then loosing Kherson. For Ukraine taking back Kherson would have immense political and moral boost. This is main reason for Russia to defend it.
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  31. They mobilizing late. Ukrainie has huge numbers but it will not last. Relax. Russia won this war.
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  32. Torsek was entered. Geo located video. Ukraine claimed they accidentally shelled themselves... Hard to believe UA side.
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  33. Hard to say - mopping it up could take weeks more. Grozny lasted 5 weeks, Falujah 6 weeks. It could be a week. It could be three. But I think closer to a week - its already divided into three parts.
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  34. I really like the Russian method of detecting combatants - gun powder residue scanner - used on airports. The stripping and looking for mostly Nazi tattoos. Very good, clean method of making sure no soldier pretends he is not one.
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  35. Zolote area troops are done for - all roads are cut and they can only escape through narrow set of fields. And here goes like 2000-3000 troops - wasted. Good going UA command. Who knew you had so much troops to throw out.
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  36. Zielinski said 700k troops total. But most are like 4th rate - i.e. maybe at best a match for police force. Maybe not. I.e. they are not able, even with 3:1 advantage to do much against Russians. Its like modern Volksturm. Plus morale is like uber low.
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  37. Most Polish channels threw the towel and start to admit Ukraine is loosing. They are just not saying full spectrum of the loss. For example, they say Russians are close to Lisichinsk but don't say they would be in suburbs in few days.
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  38. Chances of Ukraine capturing Krasny Liman are now less then 10%. This offensive looks like was defeated as well. Russian totally bled UA troops dry and they no longer have offensive power to continue. I expect UA forces to loose most of the land captured in the next few weeks. Same as in Kherson.
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  39. Yep, Putin things with his head, cold and calculated. Zielinski and his stuff does not. They are "PR" army.
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  40. Your guess makes sense about future attack. But I am sure Ukraine will not give in easily. The ship sunk was of low value - its more of embarrassment value & PR value. Any confirmation on Mariupol flag on admin building? Is Izium really taken?
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  41. 0:50 - how could they have been withdrawn???? HOW?! There is not a single road, even dirt road. Russian huge movement occurred after they captured a hill overlooking these villages. From the top of the hill they could easily direct fire. Also one of the villages is lower so they could just get few tanks up close and rain death.
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  42. Nah, not even close. Besides - Ukraine could already do that using missiles for a long time - heavy Soviet missile artillery is roughly 80km+ double the range of M777. Ukraine also has plenty more of it as well as other systems. I do not even consider M777 more then a PR stunt.
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  43. UA forces are taking a massive beating as they failed to realize that they lost. Even if they have tiny gains eventually it is clear there is around zero chance of penetrating Russian defensive lines. So what is the point of attacking if they know there is no chance of gaining offensive objectives? This is total PR where any gains will be spinned as victory.
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  44. Nah, they are moving on these fronts (Donbass) every day. For past month. But movement is slow. 3km here, 5km there etc. Ukraine is large, even Donbass is large. It takes weeks to take large cities. Mykolaiv is about as big as Mariupol - you need massive forces to take these. Russians started the war with tiny forces. There was no way they could even occupy half of Ukraine with such forces. Heck, they started with forces (on Russian side not republics) needed to just take Kiev - all of forces involved. Ukrainian units are lightly equipped and unable to attack effectively. Thus they get bloodied by Russian tanks. See for example action near Brovary - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R926wyojcGg Yesterday Chechens fully taken all of Mariupol to the right of AzovStal - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FIRayJcGX9Y Still I bet another week, maybe. Ukrainian non Azov units are dispersing already and turning to civilian clothing, many getting arrested by Russians (I lost video link).
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  45. 3:1 in a city is low. I would start with 5:1 and go up from there. So Russians have at least 20k troops in Mariupol at the moment. Fight can go on for few more weeks, but lets not expect more - compare battle of Grozny - against battle hardened Chechens - 5 weeks. compare battle of Falujah against ISIS - 6 weeks. We are almost at week 3. So more then two weeks would be rather slow advance.
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  46. Russians are making preparations and Ukraine does not seem to have any element of surprise. I predict this will be similar to battle of Kursk where Ukraine will bleed out and be wiped out on counter.
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  47. Yes, but apparently they did manage to cross the river finally. Remember this was one of few crossings - all taken and destroyed. Also remember on the Kharkiv side Ukraine tried to do the same - also at least three times - so must have also taken heavy losses. It is now war of attrition and Russia is clearly winning it.
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  48. Ukraine is done for. 100% of their regular army is committed and they cannot hold the line. Russia still has at least 20 BTGs ready to enter Ukraine. Ukraine does have 24 brigades of light infantry left - but sending them against tanks, armed with just Javelins will be suicide. This is why pp are saying the west will fight Russia to the last Ukrainian.
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  49.  @kartikeyatiwari2502  DPA - reports it - maybe in a different video newer then this one. They have taken I think gelatin plant and are attacking another one.
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  50. Wow, 14000? Someone is lying. The original number was 2500. Where all these Nazis came from? I mean are they all concentrated in Mariupol only? Nah, I think maybe 4000 or original 2500. 14000 just seems to astronomical. Maybe I was wrong then and Mariupol will not last 10-14 days longer? I agree - wait at least 24h for AzovStal.
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  51.  @dogwhistle8836  If they taken Kiev then what? West would not accept any puppet government there & Z would try to take Kiev back. Ukraine has lost the war as they are getting further and further away from their victory condition while Russia is getting closer and closer.
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  52. They captures city center and admin building.
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  53. They slowed Ukrainians down and are bleeding them. They have not reached old DPR forts yet. I expect Russians to retake any land lost either this year or early next year. They simply need to bleed them a lot and crush in counter attack.
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  54. On Polish channel when I said they need to withdraw, one reply was "with what".
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  55. Ukraine is far stronger in propaganda then in actual combat. A lot of drone images were done by professional arm of UA army and released on official channels. Channel owner is spot on saying that any such large convoy takeout would be all over the news. Heck UA lies at least 2x or more then 3x as much as Russians - all armies loosing the war do that - see AM - AZ conflict. We had like 10 cities now, or more, claimed to be "retaken" when they never been taken. Its to the point where one should start ignoring 90% of what comes out of UA.
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  56. It took US 6 weeks to take out some untrained dudes in Falujah. And they had 1:10 advantage.
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  57. It feels Russians moved out of the whole Kharkiv area!
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  58. Russia did like 80% of their air strikes for past few days in Izium area. That is like 1000+ air strikes!
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  59. In here we can probably believe Ru more then Ua - we had same thing in Armenia war when they confirmed they lost a city after like literally every soldier there was dead + 2 days - like a day after Azerbaijan shown a video of them rising their flag there (!)
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  60.  @Ofasia777  Russian economy is not on war footing so it can produce quality stuff - heavy weapons like T-90M, modern aircraft etc. I expect them to add at least 300 tanks per year and around 100 aircraft per year based on pre war numbers. Add to it 100s of artillery pieces, missile systems, AA systems, armored personnel carriers etc. We are talking here about 2nd largest on earth military - industrial complex, not some bannana republic. For Ukraine it is 2nd hand ex Soviet garbage weapons as well as sprinkling on various hand me down NATO weapons - in very low numbers. As soon as Russia has numbers parity (troops) it will be easy going forward. This war is not optional for Russia - it is to be or not to be - thus costs are all acceptable. Sure Putin is going for lowest cost possible, but is willing to spend all it takes.
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  61. Russia is in no hurry, every week is plus for them. Time is firmly on Russia's side.
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  62. Maybe, they, wanted, them to go in? Where will the idiots go?
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  63. Nah, no credible info on this. Its not the first time either they "encircled" Russians. For being "encircled" these Russians are very calm.
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  64. Prigozhin will soon be geo located where Ukraine claims to still hold land ;)
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  65. So far zero confirmation on any of this.
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  66. Like I said, Seversk is like 2 max 3 days away. Ukraine is falling apart right now.
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  67. Well, more losses for Ukraine will happen. They lost the war, the only direction is more losses.
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  68. Before the war Russia was able to produce around 200 tanks per year max. I expect them to bump it up to 250 / 300. They also were able to add over 70 aircraft / heli per year, expect now over 100. They are actively making advanced missiles and drones in large numbers, expect even more production boost.
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  69. @mousse cake Nah. Fake news. Russians just started major offensive as per Ukraine. As per US they have added 11 BTGs to the front. This is 11k Russians. Does not sound like much but there are 12BTGs at Mariupol and total BTGs number is now a whopping 76. If these 11 and 12 from Mariupol attack things will be hard for Ukrainians. That is over 20k Russians. To stop them Ukraine needs at least 60k or better yet 80k of their own troops.
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  70. Slow 500m per day, at most, progress. Ukies sure are fighting hard for something of no value.
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  71. Please add to the next update Russian retreat from Kiev. They have retreated during the night past Ivankow. This was pre-planned operation. Looks like by tomorrow all troops on the left hand side of Kiev will be back in Belarus. I assume they will regroup and be sent to Donbass front. I also assume the whole right hand side of Kiev may join them up as well in the next few days. So it may not exactly be any "massive counter offensive" at all - Russians just moved back and Ukrainians just re occupy territory freed. I assume Russians simply had no chance of surrounding Kiev with forces deployed so they decided to use them elsewhere.
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  72.  @DefensePoliticsAsia  yeah, even low tech Tochka U can eventually get through. When US intercepted Saddam's missiles also one got through and killed over 30 people in barracks. It happens. But most people have memory span of like 2 weeks. No one remembers that US also had similar mishaps.
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  73. They have very good defenses there and Ukrainians cannot break them despite taking epic losses.
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  74.  @saattlebrutaz  Mobilized forces sent 1st do not need training as they left the army less then 2 years ago. They are young men - they do not have such heavy memory loss as to forget their training so quickly. Most seen combat - some extensive combat. So I would not worry. Also Russia will always have artillery. Lots of it.
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  75. There are some reports that 80% of Seversk has been taken - all the way to the river that divides the town. Serebrianka is probably not taken, Russians crossed the river behind it and attacked Seversk from the north. Troops in Serebrianka are surrounded.
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  76. Maybe its Mariupol style - to POW camp? I also pointed out how - no read, fields are open and Russians have high ground plus the fields from each side are under 4km away from Russian positions - i.e. well within tank fire. Only smaller groups running home could make it at night. And this is without any equipment. Only thing I can think of, and Ukraine never did it, would be to order all troops with 100% of the strength to attack north and break through.
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  77. Where will NATO get 1 million troops :)
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  78. Expect more attacks and more uber heavy losses. Russia needs to make the island into little fortress. Drones cannot easily get there as they are easily seen over the sea. Small drones can be taken care of by jamming. Without this Island Odessa port is of no use to Ukraine. With the island and some missiles systems on it, suddenly Ukraine has Odessa partially open. In this single attack Ukraine lost almost 100 KIA (!!!)
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  79.  @helgil6545  Sure it is! You need troops to build bridges, move them, to support and secure the other side etc. You need support etc. You need #s.
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  80. Even if UA by some luck established a pocket there - a bridgehead - it would face enormous problems - such as problems with supply & problems with getting hammered by artillery. I mean how would UA supply troops there? Speed boats? Helicopters? And what would that light infantry do there - try to attack inland against prepared defenses? This has only political value.
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  81. Imagine, Russians held off Ukraine offensive while on the other bank of the river. Now Ukraine wants to do an offensive, while weaker, Russia stronger ... and while Russia is protected by the river. I expect a huge number of losses for Ukraine as Russia creates multiple fire bags.
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  82. If Russians allow Kherson to fall before they have taken all of Donbass it would be a show of a huge weakness. They simply need to hold the city till Donbass is taken . I have no idea why they went so far north on left hand side of Dnieper. Zippo idea.
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  83. Not even close.
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  84.  @larsc.krogens3937  Yes, lets hope AFU have ordered a lot of sunflower seeds for their troops.
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  85.  @MikeAG333  Sure, whatever you say. We see how things look like when the conflict is frozen. And I doubt that Ukraine will have even 1sq km of Donbass.
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  86. Once encircled these forces can be destroyed on the cheap!
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  87.  @ApocDevTeam  Azov was a small part of the army - what about multiple non Azov brigades???? Normal Ukrainian soldiers did surrender but 1000s died. Both in Lysychansk and Severodonetsk large number of troops was destroyed, taken POW as well as 100s of major items of military equipment were captured. Russians even made an exhibition of it. Ukraine ordered retreat too late. Major losses were incurred. Same will be here. If the indeed retreat - them may even be surrounded. Why do they stick to these areas is a mystery. Supposedly b/c next line of defense is weaker and there is none after that.
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  88.  @Twothreedeparture  Clearly one should contact your professors at King's college in London and tell them that your masters was granted in error as you clearly are unable to write coherent thesis. Which was?
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  89. In few days we see how many troops Russia captured into a net. I heard that a single battalion managed to escape yesterday.
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  90. Just think about it, if Ukraine had 20k troops for the offensive, why would they need two battalions of Poles to show up? Something is not right. I think both are false.
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  91. Positional fight. Russians got Ukraine by the throat and are holding.
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  92. Russians need to step up their game as US is planning massive military spending on Ukraine. They either need to step up now or mobilize.
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  93. Well, UA are running out of troops. So its like a fight till someone runs out.
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  94.  @mosoni3437  Thus they are of use. The guy has very weak cardio system and cannot run more then 10m. Thus we know that he would be not even remotely close to the front line. Hence once we geo tag him we know actual front line must be far away, in a city as much as 1.5km or even 2km away.
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  95. As usual Ukraine made some huge claims of "advancements" that no one is able to confirm or these are for towns/ villages they already had.
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  96. No one expected Ukraine to fail so badly! Not even Russians!
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  97. Almost there - taking a very long time. Berets are only worn when there is no danger of being shot. They would never be worn in actual combat - its not WWII anymore - even then I think a lot of that was staged. Also these pp just freshly surrendered - note that their hands are up and not zip tied so they were not searched yet. If there are lots of pp on the video its unlikely its staged. Could be. Best way is to ID some of the "actors". As for a shave, this shows professional nature of Ukraine marines. I do not see any reason why "no shaving" would be allowed if I commanded a unit that was encircled. We see later on whatever its fake or not.
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  98. Multiple sources say Severdoneck is 80% held by Russians and only the factory is in UA hands.
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  99. Even if Russia looses this position it will just need to work harder to retake it in the future. Question is when - winter offensive or spring offensive?
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  100.  @pineapplesareyummy6352  I heard on military updates that the are around adivka (not just it but all surrounding area) has estimated 15000. All other numbers you give are roughly the same as I heard from same source. The 15000 did seem very, very high. He also pointed it to be very very high. The whole Donbass pocket - Sloviansk - Krematorsk I heard around 50,000. I am not there and do not work for either side intelligence so no clue why 15k for that small area. With a lot of other stuff the guy is spot on - so maybe he knows something more then others.
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  101.  @DefensePoliticsAsia  Yeah I also think its a bit ... to early. Maybe we should defined city taken as one where there are no snipers that can blow your head off. That will take a while. Mostly liberated is when you can drive around without RPG taking your APC out. Your report state they just entered AzovStal - so still long way to go! At least few days. Its still uber fast. People don't understand how fast this is - short memory. Russians are like beating records or something. And people still laugh at them.
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  102.  @andrzejraven6437  Most of the Nazi are in Azov and a lot of Azov is in Mariupol still. Not all were yet killed. Question of days. Hopefully all will be killed. I hope they do not surrender. Nazi are evil. All need to be killed. There is no good Nazi. It does not matter Ukraine is "allay" of Poland. Any Nazi is enemy of Poland. In 1930s the west was also cozy with the Nazi. And look how well it all ended for everyone. Hitler was supposed to fight Stalin. Well, he did, but after most of Europe was destroyed... and in the end allies chose to side with reds not with Nazis.
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  103. Wait for 3rd attempt - they have, according to the Poles, 3 brigades there - so there has to be 3rd attempt before they are all ineffective. This shows how hard it is to attack and what are the odds of Ukraine ever taking any land back - i.e. zippo.
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  104. Well, he is calm. He knows the 300k or more likely 600k or more will retake this region soon. These successes are temporary.
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  105.  @sonaruo  Yeah, but Dniepr river is what Russia would also use for defense when it starts annexing territory. Its double edged sword. Besides, even if Russia wanted to go deeper they can - they have Kherson bridge. Even just taking right hand side would be a disaster for Ukraine - Kiev would become border city, Kharkiv gone, Dnipro gone.
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  106. Ukraine only. Russia is doing great. Better than expected.
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  107. I doubt that. I even doubt it will fall. But if it does I expect it retake within 6 months or less.
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  108. DPR / LPR are fighting on their own land - as good motivation as Ukraine has elsewhere.
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  109. It is a joke that Ukraine will be able to encircle Bakhmut. They do not have enough forces.
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  110.  @DefensePoliticsAsia  It looks like Russians moved out of the area and only screening force is there.
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  111.  @MyBigBoss  LOL, as you can see Russia is staunchly defending Kherson. Russia has won as they are moving forward slowly without taking much of a loss. Its OK to move out of terrain you never really wanted. Remember the goal of the operation is only to take Donbass back. Only Donbass. Anything else is a "bonus".
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  112. Russia artillery is 10x as numerous and they have guns that out range everything Ukraine has. Also they have... reserves, while UA has no more m777 lined up.
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  113. Maybe, but not for some time - Donbass first.
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  114. Take control of half of Ukraine Zelenski - we still winning, they did not take the other half ;)
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  115.  @youmed1567  Nah, F-16s would be older and Russian integrated air defenses would mop them up same way they did with old MiG-29s. So what they will have older AIM-120s? They cannot use them against something they cannot see. They also would be out ranged themselves. F-16s will need to be sent either later this year or at the beginning of 2024. Either that or Ukraine will have no air force.
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  116. Well, we have three problems: - accuracy of Russian reporting due to both plain lies and simply a mistake - deliveries of aircraft to Ukraine from other states - fixing of existing Ukrainian aircraft with freshly delivered spare parts So its next to impossible to tell what is going on.
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  117. They don't need to stand up - Ukraine is speeding things up for them - see Kursk fiasco.
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  118.  Alfred Churchill  He is allowing openly Nazi units to operate. The west ignorance of the Nazi, same as 1930s are putting whole west on the wrong side of history. There cannot be any support for any Nazism in any form. Of course knowing history the west will simply brush over the Nazi thing and make it appear like it came out of nowhere, without any support or enablement. Same as before WWII. So what Zielinski is Jewish (Ukraine has also PM that is Jewish)? What does that change with the Nazi calculus? Do you even know what being Nazi means? Do you know that during WWII Germany supported Japan - despite Japanese being seen as inferior not by Germans but by... Americans! Germans simply modified Nazi ideology to accept Japan, as it was an ally. Same thing can happen today - no difference. We can have a Nazi state grow anywhere, even in Africa. We can have Israel turn into a Nazi state. Nazi is basically racial superiority stance - you say your race is superior. that race can be anything. If you are such a proud son of democracy, why do you deny it to some people - so far none of these "democracy zelots" have responded to simple question, maybe you be the first one. Why democracy for some people, not for all people. WHY? If Z was elected on principles of so called "freedom, democracy and anti corruption" why Ukraine has not budged in corruption rankings and why there are no minority rights and why people are not allowed to choose where and how they are supposed to live. Also, why there seems to be so many arrests of opposition politicians.
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  119. Well, a lot of troops there are fighting on home ground - so its easy to defend your home.
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  120. If slapping some comic is OK b/c of a bad joke then Zielinski would not have had a face already ;)
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  121. Yeah, they will hold the other side of the river. There were images of them already mining the bridges.
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  122. This is probably almost all 100% screening force. Once Ukrainians get to their border - what will they do? Invade Russia? They are desperately trying to get Russians to send support here to off load Donbass front. But Russians are not biting.
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  123. LOL, maybe they let them in 30km deep - then you say super epic fail. Then Russians cut them off. What you say then?
    3
  124.  @cliffordnelson8454  Legend has it they had a lot of sunflower seeds in their pockets.
    3
  125. Not really - they are out numbered badly - once they have parity in numbers they magically will start winning.
    3
  126. Well, some light weapons and some old tanks / APCs are of little concern. They do prolong the war and will cause some Russian but also massive UA casualties.
    3
  127. Few more days of Ukrainian offensive and there is zero chance they will be able to defend that front against Russians.
    3
  128. I think the decided to leave Kharkiv oblast.
    3
  129. If it has no value why such desperate defense by so many Ukies? Why take heavy losses defending... Nothing?
    3
  130. Nah, not with amount of supplies for today's army. This is OK for little fire fight or for small force, but not for 2000 people. They need like 10t of food alone (and water) for this force per day. Besides, on both sides you would need trucks to wait for hours to be unloaded and an easy target. Finally ammo - many tons per day.
    3
  131. 90% fake. They just are trying to save face. Maybe there is some fighting still in the town. Imagine, it takes Russians a week plus to take the town. It takes Ukraine few hours to get it back ;) Alternatively it could be the standard UA case of "we taken city back we never lost".
    3
  132. Russia is unlikely to run out of ammo. I doubt that is even a possibility. They are firing like 3x less shells then UK ability to produce shells in WWI - WW ONE. UK alone.
    3
  133. No need to pray for Lyman - I doubt now that Ukraine will be able to take it.
    3
  134. Mariupol port is supposedly all taken. There is RU video from it.
    3
  135. I doubt info about Kherson is valid. Ukraine has been on the offensive there for a month. Unless confirmed, fake news.
    2
  136. *********** check out this geo tag, school #25 in Mariupol. Patrick Lancaster did just posted a video from this location. So video had to be done few hours ago or more. Video is from location on your map still in Ukrainian hands. But they cannot be if reporter is there with unarmed PR officer of DPR. So area of at least 2km around needs to be cleared for them to be so care free. School #25 address - https://www.google.com/maps/place/Zelins'koho+St,+108,+Mariupol',+Donets'ka+oblast,+Ukraine,+87537/@47.1038147,37.4720982,12.31z/data=!4m5!3m4!1s0x40e6e3c097e6f8bf:0x21d53b01413a3d1!8m2!3d47.1058595!4d37.5177627 ************** So this implies center is already taken as area geotags to about 1500m from central market and city center (exact).
    2
  137. Well, they wanted to liberate Donbass only from Kiev regime. But Kiev did not want peace. So Putin decided to pay himself with some Ukrainian land for all the effort. Why take only stuff that you should get, when you can take some extra stuff as well? Kherson region is one of the regions of Ukraine that probably would vote not to join Russia - many others, including Odessa are more likely.
    2
  138. That would not be wise. This is just a probing attack. Send little forces there to counter.
    2
  139. Wow, Russians now have well over 3000 POWs!
    2
  140. Russians need to encircle the area or war will be for many years.
    2
  141. Another morale style attack. Poles on Polish news are overjoyed - Ukraine went in whole 9km. For like 10min ;) Its not even company level attack - its like two platoons. So what - Russians should encircle them and finish them off. I have no idea why they do such stunts.
    2
  142.  @AlbertZonneveld  They conscripted a lot of old guys - I seen video of people in their 50s fighting for Donbass.
    2
  143. Ukraine offensive cannot be under way as they failed to change the momentum. So if it indeed "started" they are failing badly at it.
    2
  144.  @valter_vava74  He wrote the truth. Russians move back at any sign of encirclement. Since they did not move back here they are somehow sure things are OK.
    2
  145.  @slythewhyissilent  I think they already did. AzovStal is a factory. No one is going to scream that they are bombing a school or kindergarten or a mall. They can fire away as much as they want. As much as their logistics can sustain. They can fire from ships.
    2
  146. Russians are "stuck" - just wait till they get Behmut and finish encirclement. Once that is done they can go around fortified lines. why crack fortified lines, when you can take them from behind? Like Germans in WWII.
    2
  147.  @michael-gb3rn  What do you mean - we have videos from there as well. Heck some of the very first things were from that area.
    2
  148.  @christophermanabat1934  Well, we see in 24h actual results of the battle. I would not be shocked if they were forced to retreat 7km - I am quite sure they eventually will be forced to do that. That does not change view of the offensive so far. Heck I predicted that the offensive will be a total failure and Ukraine will gain around 10 villages as a result of it. That was a week ago.
    2
  149. If Ukraine wants to fight to the last man alive - let them - encircle Bakhmut and finish them off there. Any retreat now will be costly for 1000s of Ukrainians there - they will loose most vehicles and a lot of infantry. Why these idiots fight for city that is lost - Zielinski is an idiot or his handlers are.
    2
  150. To the river.
    2
  151. They are too strong there - no need to retreat.
    2
  152.  @larsc.krogens3937  Equally well with fresh UA fertilizer!
    2
  153. Russians will not easily move out of occupied areas even if they do not need them as they are holding a lot of Ukrainian troops. Removing troops from one area to another also means Ukraine would do the same. Besides, they have something to bargain with. Russia needs to capture all of Donbass and only then agree to freeze conflict - not before - i.e. all of Donetsk needs to be taken as all of Lugansk is already taken. I doubt this war will end before 2 months mark.
    2
  154. They are either fighting a delaying battle or are confident they can hold the city. After all, they know that large numbers of troops will be available very soon.
    2
  155.  @MyBigBoss  No they never captured Donbass. Not even once.
    2
  156.  @MyBigBoss  Putin does not need to redefine anything - Russian goals are well known - Donbass.
    2
  157.  @saeed7099  Sure, but not the lost land that Russia wants to keep. They were unable to reclaim any of it.
    2
  158. We see whatever they crossed the river in at least one point and can hold it. It would be vital for Russians to make sure any such crossing is quickly eliminated. So far I put it in rumors territory - I doubt they managed to cross - especially when its like 500m wide.
    2
  159. Its not just that ship in recent years, USS Miami as well. "According to official Navy statistics, from 1973 to. 1983 there were an average of 148 fires per year on U.S. ships or at shore bases" I guess most do not make the news. But heck, one fire on Russian ship ... only happens to Russians. Russian warships are far more packed with weapons then US ships so chances of a fire, accident etc. are greater.
    2
  160. It was. They mobilized.
    2
  161. No. That is not possible.
    2
  162. Even if they take it they will not hold it for long. It will be retaken by end of this year and Krasny Liman as well. I expect large losses of territory by spring 2023 & UA loosing more land to Russia than Russia lost to Ukraine in the last 6 weeks.
    2
  163.  @Ofasia777  Tanks pre war prod about 200 per year - I assume with overtime and weekends 300. Missiles are certainly in - look they just used a whopping 100 in one day. Each missile computer is made entirely in Russia so no issues there. Russia made military chips for many years. Sure they need to pay in rubles for all of this - but given how strong ruble is, no issues. The 300k is easy - they already have roughly that number signed up, paperwork done and in uniform. Russia and Soviets prepared for an army of millions & have experience dealing with armies in millions. I do not see any issues - just will needed of Putin to sign documents. Just exactly how modern the war is? Tanks, artillery, people, aircraft - all of this uses same logistics as in 1945. Tanks burn even about as much diesel as before. Artillery fires about as many shells as before. People are WAY over estimating "modern" war vs. what was out there 50 years ago.
    2
  164.  @jeffreyexposito3803  First Russia would need to take Kiev and Kharkov - they did not. 2nd it is difficult to predict where Russians will go. After all the war is to stop NATO and territorial gains are only secondary of limited importance - after all, Russia was to give all land back to UA in exchange for no NATO before the war.
    2
  165.  @Ofasia777  The pulled from storage numbers - I watched a video - show missing at most few hundred tanks. Yes, there is a guy that counts all Russian tanks in storage - and he did count before and after the war - recent one - and only few hundred were missing. Hundreds of components. Yet they all seem to be made in Russia. Someone is clearly lying. Ukraine uses massive force not small mobile units. They attack with overwhelming force - like they sent two full BTGs against a single Russian company in Kherson few days ago. Or when they did Kharkiv operation with around 8 times numerical advantage. Most of equipment is old Soviet stuff and they have not gotten any modern NATO equipment. The quality of equipment is very heavy on Russian side - i.e. Russia has far and wide more modern stuff than Ukraine has. All they need is troop numbers - i.e. it is hard to stop masses of Ukrainian meat even if you have heavy tech edge. Now with mobilization numbers will equalize and Russia can use its tech advantage. There is no way Ukraine can win a war with Russia that is five times bigger, has huge modern military - industrial complex and has 1000s of nukes. Come on. This may have been OK if war was optional for Russia - like say Vietnam for US, but its not. Eventually Ukraine will run out of people or equipment well before Russia does. Also your 1500 tanks are not exactly confirmed by anyone - like I said - the guy that counts tanks sees only few hundred missing from storage. There are no reliable sources for losses and all losses are just a guess - but I assume Ukraine is taking far and wide heavier losses than Russian side.
    2
  166.  @davidchang5265  But these were optional wars. Korea was part of UN and both China and US simply needed status quo. Vietnam was just stopping communism. Here we have a war that is not optional. Russia needs to win as its very existence as sovereign state is at hand. I.e. Russia needs to win as much as it needed to win vs. Nazi Germany. Thus, total mobilization and nukes will be the last acts of Russia. Clearly we can agree that Ukraine cannot win.
    2
  167.  @keithpalmer4547  You mean captured equipment will be moved through Crimea over the bridge? Maybe, but I think there is more direct route.
    2
  168.  @mindbodyinstitute2652  Yes, they are doing orderly retreat on multiple fronts. There is also info about fresh new units being sent to other fronts. Russians no longer want to surround Kiev as it has proven to difficult for forces employed - so they will remove troops, refresh them and redeploy on Donbass front or simialr. I guess the aim of holding a lot of Ukrainian troops occupied near Kiev was not really worth it.
    2
  169. The ships bottom valves were opened. that is how it sunk to the bottom. Its old ship. Not worth fixing. There were at least 2 buk missiles systems going to Brdiansk. So I wonder whatever city did not have air defenses at all or they were insufficient to stop larger attack.
    2
  170. I doubt Ukraine will hold Lyman.
    2
  171. There were videos of trucks driving over the bridge - you just need to be careful. There is also another bridge a bit further as well as over the river transport.
    2
  172. Well, sure - if we go even more into the past, most Russians and Ukrainians are .... Poles. If we continue even more the Poles are Persians. And finally it all ends up in Africa.
    2
  173. Battle of Sloviansk has just started! Russians crossed the river.
    2
  174. I am not sure about Konotop - we see - its a lot of land to give up for future bargaining. Or maybe Russia realized Ukraine will not bargain so there is no point of keeping any extra land to play around with. These lines were exposed and that land took a lot of effort to secure. If it served no purpose then just give it back and concentrate on what is needed.
    2
  175. Strategic - they have fixed Ukrainians near Kiev, same as fake landings have fixed Ukrainians at Odessa same as fake Belarusian invasion has fixed Ukrainians near northern border. I.e. fixed units cannot move - they are fixed.
    2
  176.  Alfred Churchill  Ahh, so KKK is now part of US government and US army? You just ignored the situation. I go against Nazi. You can go ahead and join them. Stephan Bandera is official hero of Ukraine. Get it? Official. Not some extremist fringe element like Proud Boys in the US. They have 30m tall monuments to a know murderer of over a million people. They have government kept, place of honor, cemeteries to fallen SS soldiers. They teach "alternative" version of history in school. Do you get it or are you so brainwashed?
    2
  177. Severodonetsk is about 50%+ taken now. It will still take few more days, maybe up to a week, but no more then that.
    2
  178. Same thing occurred in Kiev region. In a lot of places. Russians moved back to regroup and will probably re-deploy in Donbass. So there was no massive counter offensive.
    2
  179.  @Energetiker  Well we see what happens next. All pulled troops need to be resupplied, regrouped and the n re-deployed. I am unsure why they are returning to Russia with any shame. They did their job. The whole thing was run from the beginning in a strange way, there was only a single throw, while every Russian military book states 3. Maybe there was hope of quick encirclement and Ukrainian negotiation which did not materialize so they did orderly retreat. They were holding a lot of Ukrainian troops there but also had constant supply issues so issues >> holding Ukrainian troops there. Also their present without encircling Kiev lost political traction - same as all other cities. These were merely blocked. There never was any push to take them. I don't think too many people got poisoning sickness - there never was too many people in that area, maybe a battalion or two. More troops maybe at outskirts of the zone. Once Brovary front lost its impetus and Russians "got stuck" decisions had to be made. So about a week ago order came to retreat - when they started to dig trenches there was already plan to retreat - it takes at least 2 days to plan to retreat a brigade, so whole group maybe a week. I expect Russians to retreat in multiple other areas & concentrate on Donbass. We see what they do at Kherson - city is on the other side of the river - they may decide to give it up.
    2
  180. One has to note that foreign troops were used for the most dangerous missions, for the most crazy stuff - so very high losses are expect. Are these true losses? Who knows - even if Russians over estimated by 2x its a still high number of pp to die and overall number of volunteers looks low!
    2
  181. Well, given that Russians fly 300x per day and Ukrainians 5x per day and its been like this after about 10 days I start to wonder what definition does the west use in this conflict for "air superiority".
    2
  182. Russians are on safari! Taking big cats left right and center.
    2
  183. Well, same as they evacuated from Azov ;) Ask yourself simple question - did they withdrew given all the red paint of the map? If they withdrew in common meaning then why so much read all over the place. They withdrew from 3 villages. So why they lost 9?
    2
  184. But UK blocked Russian request for UN. Wonder how UK can explain that (this was Monday I believe) UK holds the presidency.
    2
  185. Kharkiv front is a mystery. Maybe Russians no longer care? Or maybe they are planning something?
    2
  186. Russians supposedly cut Ukrainians from sea access. Not sure whatever its only AzovStal area all of Mariupol.
    2
  187.  @Ktaurus26  Are you sure? That would be big news.
    2
  188. They may have more fighters and helicopters from the west - we may find out say in few weeks that say Poland delivered some MiG-29s after all. Same with helicopters.
    2
  189. I say way more then that - more like 80-90k plus another 100k allies.
    2
  190. Come on Wagner, finish it, it's boring.
    2
  191. How many POWs? Did most of UA forces manage to retreat or there are at least few hundred POWs?
    2
  192. Just wait till all Kiev forces join in the attack and all Mariupol forces from the south. This shapes up to be an epic combat. Ukraine cannot easily move all their troops form Kiev area - they eliminated by faint 1/3 of UA army!
    2
  193.  @j.dasilva4567  If it was such a good weapon (and Spike BTW is better as it can change targets mid flight and has some other options). then why 1000s of them were delivered yet they have so few successes. Ukraine had around 10,000 guided missiles, out of which 6000 were new. US and allies sent over 1000 guided missiles (roughly) and at least 10,000+ unguided missiles (latest model such as NLAW). Ukraine had probably 100,000 unguided missiles of all types. Neither Javelin, nor NLAW have 100% success rate. Average is about 6 hits to take out a tank. However, the issues is actually hitting the tank. This is why tanks are soooo much better then these systems and thus so much more expensive. Tanks have plenty of ammo, rather thick armor and good sensors. They are also quite mobile. BTW, Spike (like Javelin but better) have together with helicopter missiles about 10% of all kills in AM-AZ war.
    2
  194. Austrian guy is showing slight bias towards Ukraine.
    2
  195. We are slowly seeing momentum go back to Russians signaling end of failed Ukrainian offensive.
    2
  196. Yeah, BUT in Adivka - for which there has been battles for like 3 months, near New York, there is reported to be 15000 in and around (!!!) Yeah, not a typo, 15000 - 15 and three zeros.
    2
  197. I think we can say that Lysychansk is taken. They are just sweeping the area now.
    2
  198.  @dennisg1460  Really? I did not see a single video ;) They captured few tanks, including T-90M Few IFVs and maybe few artillery systems. Come on. It was two brigades ;) When Russians took Lisichiansk / Severdonetsk they captured few dozen vehicles of different types - and that was not from two Ukrainian brigades but from like 10. They had them on display. This myth of Ukraine capturing a lot of equipment evaporated with Ghost of Kiev.
    2
  199. Told you Ukraine got planes from somewhere! Probably Poland. About half are now scrap. MiG-29As. "Spare parts". You can have whole plane dismounted and sent as "spare parts". Massive Ukrainian offensive is now a new way to say "vaporware". See multiple "massive offensives" Ukraine so far has done zippo. Not even one.
    2
  200. Non Russian flag ships can ignore Ukrainian threats. Imagine they sunk Turkey flagged ship. It would not be pretty. Russian flagged ships may need escort.
    2
  201.  @AlbertZonneveld  They seem to be plenty of units there on the salient - so I now think that there is no way they give up that position. The word is that after Donbass Odessa operation may be next. I.e. they are defeating Ukraine in detail.
    2
  202. No. No political apatite for escalation with Russia. Also no need.
    2
  203.  @danieltherocketmaster4065  We get images from Russians themselves - they will want to prove its just damaged. Especially if its going to be clear it was not a missile. Which I doubt it was. Also even if Moskva radar was so old it could not see (doubtful - it had CIWS and helicopters / aircraft fly low) her escorts would see - you can see this in action when some old missiles were fired at US ships in the Gulf - the escorts took them out, not targets.
    2
  204. That would not be very smart as there is no easy path to go back over the river later on for Russians.
    2
  205. At current rate Ukraine will reach sea of Azov in 16 years ;) There were no major movements on the ground in the last month by either side. Conflict is static.
    2
  206. Yes, Russians were too thin. They are still too thin. They need way more troops even for control of much more limited territory. Basically they have eaten with their eyes not their mouth (or they have bitten more then they could chew).
    2
  207. Go home!
    2
  208. Yeah, he is good at that.
    2
  209. They may rest a bit or go for chasiv yar. War will continue. Better question is what will happen once whole Donbass is liberated. Will Russia stop?
    2
  210. Nah, the damage was so minimal they put out the fire within a day.
    2
  211.  @alfatejpblind6498  Yes, I am 100% sure that whatever the outcome, western media will say it was a success for Ukraine.
    2
  212. But why no video? Why no investigation of war crimes. You can say no one alive to do video. But why no international investigation? WHY?
    2
  213. Russia needs to deploy like 50 attack helicopters and dozens of aircraft there to catch UA forces in the open and reduce them. This offensive is a big opportunity for the Russians.
    2
  214.  @levbolotnikov6020  This depends on whom is telling the truth. Russians say city divided into three parts. Ukraine claims they hold most of it. Truth I am sure is somewhere in between.
    2
  215.  @paulwhillas6494  No it cannot. Russia has longest range artillery in the world - around 2km more than the west. MistaB with 60 caliber ultra long gun. What air defenses? What artillery? They have few times less. What armor - they have lot less as well.
    2
  216.  @gj1234567899999  The ship on fire is gone. Two others superficial damage. I think Odessa operation, if ever even planned for real is long ways off.
    2
  217. I would say maybe a company plus and I doubt they will be encircled for long. They either move out or Russians recapture positions.
    2
  218. No, in some areas 17km. Some less. Max is 17km.
    2
  219.  @Idk_about_anything  True, but they did not hold Kherson since 2014 till recently and Crimea was fine. Kherson was never asked for by Russia in peace negotiations - it was recognition of Crimea as part of Russia and recognition of Donbass. Nothing more!
    2
  220. By your account Ukraine has zero chances of winning any pro longed conflict.
    2
  221. God, how boring, offensive #100 by Ukraine. With similar results to offensive #99.
    2
  222. Poland preparing cemetery for 1700 - Polish sources claim 1200 spots already taken.
    2
  223.  @aramisio2  Well, yes, we know they lost a lot of land in last few days. DPA is one of the first guys that report it. Did you... watch the video?
    2
  224.  @sonaruo  Problem is the plan seen widely by Russia is to make new border on the river. Another problem is that Russia crossed the river in Kherson.
    2
  225. Nah, they are too slow. In 3 to 4 weeks they will no long have advantage and ride will turn. By end of the year Russians will start pushing them off. I doubt they have much chance of taking Mariupol in the next month or so. After that I expect Russians to maybe take Zaporozia.
    2
  226. War is at the speed of nose bleed. Ukraine is slowly loosing blood but have plenty of it.
    2
  227. They are uninterested in Mikolayv region and even stuff above it as Russia plans to rip off the right hand side of Dniepr river. Which is... on the other side. This all feels here as political bargaining chips - same as Kiev.
    2
  228.  @DefensePoliticsAsia  Fully agree - no clue why they went there. Too much ambition on commanders part to take as much as he can.
    2
  229.  @kiriltzenev5955  Maybe they want to use them after the war?
    2
  230. Why? They advance.
    1
  231. Sure, but they are cheaper than air defenses.
    1
  232.  @SmileZero  Maybe, but it will take a long time to mop up resistance in small pockets. Besides, I am not even convinced all of AzovStal is taken. Maybe 60%. I think what DPR mean is that they cut city into two. That makes more sense to me.
    1
  233. Depends on size - I expect few 1000s of soldiers to cross. If they encounter no resistance more can come. The Russians will have to deal with the crossings and divide their forces. But given Russian reserves in the area I would not worry too much about this.
    1
  234. I am not 100% sure both of these were ever marked as captured by Russians on many maps. Many maps do not have Russians in physical control of the road.
    1
  235. That is plainly idiotic. Do you think Russia / Soviets do not have weapons for millions of people? Really? WWII did not teach you anything at all, did it? They probably have more guns then both men and women from 18 to 65. Maybe 2x as much. Same with all other equipment.
    1
  236. This capture has zero usefulness in any negotiations. Come on.
    1
  237. It could be so they can retreat. But Kiev is too stupid for such things.
    1
  238. Well, Russia already won this war. Operational end is in sight.
    1
  239. Sporne :) Yeah I just noticed it ...
    1
  240.  @youareliedtobythemedia  Yeah, like Ukraine would ever allow any referendums.
    1
  241. The so called "last hurrah". Once UA forces are depleted Russia can start major counter offensive. I do not think NATO will enter UA.
    1
  242.  @kiriltzenev5955  Hmm, actually strangely that region is less Russian then to the wither left or right of them.
    1
  243. To do offensive you need forces. Ukraine does not have forces to conduct anything then a local counter attack. Any troops that retreat from these areas are more or less useless as they maybe have their personal weapons with them. So it would take weeks to even re-organize and rearm them.... if there is something to rearm them with. Ukraine did not do any offensive operations for more then two months now. They are about to loose up to 10k troops in Donbass. I doubt this is the time they will find something to do major operations with.
    1
  244. Russians need to milk them - wear them down till they have no more reserves - then with their own reserves strike back!
    1
  245. Its op sec. Russians are not good at telling their own pp what is going on.
    1
  246. It would be sort of super cool if Russians recapture Krasny Lyman. They need more reserves.
    1
  247.  @peacebewu  That is rather trivial - they have not enough pp for a huge front line. There are like 600 pp per 20km. Or even less. Plus UA has huge # advantage.
    1
  248. I think its a bit late - Russian terms will be brutal.
    1
  249.  @jeredmarkoff2442  Why he is correct. What will Ukraine do once Russia deploys the 300k or more likely 500k troops?
    1
  250.  @jeredmarkoff2442  LOL, and this is why Ukraine did enact a set of laws, months ago, that prohibit anyone from leaving of military age. Also that is the reason they are hunting even night clubs to get people! Yep - Ukrainian "volunteers" captured trying to cross to Poland at night. Also same "volunteers" pay around 2000 USD, if memory serves me, to cross the border to border guards. Yep, totally wanting to fight! You can see them all over Poland and other countries Ukrainian refugees went to. I guess they all are fighting ... remotely.
    1
  251. Excellent news. Soon the offensive will be defeated and Russia can start counter offensive against Ukraine without any reserves. There is a chance of Ukraine being forced to the table this year.
    1
  252. Lol, there are not 100s of cities. There are 3 more. Three.
    1
  253. Russia needs to spread Ukrainians a bit - attack on wider fronts etc.
    1
  254. If Russians take serotie then at least 2 UA BTGs will be cut off and have to swim across. The whole counter attack Ukraine did with its left over forces was to secure that area. But Ukraine is simply to weak.
    1
  255.  @DefensePoliticsAsia  Yes, but Russia is doing similar stuff - they are sending a lot of regular troops - supposedly as well as recalling reservists - also supposedly as I have no actual video proof. so... maybe?
    1
  256.  @redbull1826  B/c they cannot use their full army in Ukraine. Not all troops can be sent. They have commitments, they have electronic welfare guys etc. So they are calling in reservists to have reserves ready. Some units they cannot use as they are loaded with conscripts etc.
    1
  257.  @DefensePoliticsAsia  Spot on. UA maybe would change the tune if the west stopped their condition less support for it. History should be more mandatory topic in schools. It should be on equal footing to country's language. West is repeating exactly, step by step, the mistakes pre-WWII. Like identical copy.
    1
  258.  @MikeAG333  Than I guess they only way out is total defeat of Ukraine and new border on Dniepr river.
    1
  259. This is the so called predicted by me and many others "last hurrah" - i.e. they are throwing everything they got. The main problem is, they do not got a lot, Russians are well prepared and any progress is super expensive. This is NOT how to fight a war! Even Soviets would see this as idiotic. Sure they did similar but not in such a rather predictable way. Once Ukrainian offensive potential is gone then what will they do? Surrender?
    1
  260. As usual Ukrainians will withdraw way too late and suffer super heavy casualties - or worse - they will get encircled and smashed like in Mariupol. Such stupid people. Fighting war of atrition by letting enemy smash them to bits.
    1
  261. Standard Ukrainian strategy of recapturing territory they never lost.
    1
  262. With some treatment yes. Given price of cooking oil I think it would be a terrible idea. Price of cooking oil went up 100% in Poland and I am sure in all of Odessa there is not enough cooking oil to fuel three tanks for more then 100km. Besides. people are already hungry.
    1
  263.  @atomicshadowman9143  *WAS*. they do not have a lot of it laying around - not enough to feed people. Like I said, price of oil doubled in Poland.
    1
  264.  @atomicshadowman9143  Poland is huge food exporter so its not worrying about food. The international prices simply went up and its unlikely Ukraine will produce a lot of food this year.
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  265. Lol. Ukraine is weaker than last year. Russia is much stronger. I expect war will end this year unless Ukraine wants to fight to the very last Ukrainian.
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  266. I wonder why Russians let them cross - are they planning same thing Ukraine did a week ago? Are they planning larger operation? What is going on? Or are they simply not interested in that part of Kharkiv Oblast? We shall see what is the plan.
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  267. Even common Ukrainian soldiers can see this is going badly. It takes big balls to make such video. Rebelling is not in military vucabulary. This is not the first time. There are dozens of such videos. Something is really rotten.
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  268. They are still advancing in Bakhmut. This is a slow war - its not like WWII. It is more of a game.
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  269. Use of the nukes will be the last resort - once door are open, hard to close. US aid and other EU aid may push Russia towards that equalizer. Also once that happens there will not be any more "sanctions" or diplomatic pressure" - only thing EU will be able to do with US in tow is to enter now nuclear conflict. All their aid will be nuked as soon as it crosses the border.
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  270.  @AlbertZonneveld  Azov had 2500 in Mariupol alone. The Azov units are at least 10,000 in total. There were also at least 1500 other soldiers in Mariupol. It is really hard to tell who is not lying. We know not all of Azov was there for sure as they are shooting POWs on camera in other places.
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  271.  @AlbertZonneveld  Poland already admitted its amounting to a war crime. Same as execution of civilians, torture of civilians etc. in Mariupol. Why no one is investigating shelling of cities by Ukraine? They shell cities, kill civilians etc. But somehow, that is totally OK, no?
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  272. Maybe. Ukraine has very few western tanks.
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  273.  @juancho1663  I heard they retaken Makarivka - did they maybe loose it again? There was talk of possible UA counter attack at night that may retake it.
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  274.  @erviskalemi1266  I do not trust UA info. It has been proven again and again to contain a lot of fakes. Besides we have video that shows from Russian side the very buildings of Seversk proving they have entered. They needed that village to take the video from. I.e. all evidence points to this being fake. Russians cannot be taking videos and attacking next village when they rear is gone.
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  275. What offensive, number 49, 50 or the 51st offensive?
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  276. Poland does not operate these aircraft. Baltic states do not have air-force. These all appear to be Ukrainian. Maybe they had some reserves left?
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  277. You can paint a series of attacks as an offensive. You can later on claim you won. Its all within reach.
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  278.  @longforgotten4823  Nah, I expect by November situation to fully stabilized and we either see winter or spring Russian offensive. Russian command must show that mobilization was enough and they are on path to liberating all of Donbass. Otherwise Putin will have to add more troops.
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  279.  @johnsmithers5044  You know these "Japanese" islands were taken from Russia by force and re-taken by Russia after WWII & are recognized by everyone except Ukraine and Japan as part of Russia. Why would they give it back - to whom? Sure Russia ceded land - they ceded land recently to China.
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  280.  @andrew30m  They have to - otherwise all these tanks they sold and are used by their friends and allies are imaginary. I doubt India would pay for imaginary tanks ;)
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  281.  @davidchang5265  The war is not about land its about NATO. None of these regions were to even be part of Russia - they are just payment for the war effort, but war is not fought for them at all. Russia no longer has any EU costumers. The war is about NATO. And that is nation ending - or at least loosing sovereign right. How about we trade - Russia will be able to place hypersonic missiles in Cuba and China will do the same in Venezuela. Its not US ending move - not at all - after all US will still exist, no? US would never allow any bases within 1000 miles of US and they officially stated that any such attempt would mean war - within last 12 months. Thus, if you think it is OK for Cuba to have nukes then I guess its OK for Russia to accept Ukraine in NATO. Heck, maybe we see some Chinese bases in Canada. The war is simple - US paid off / convinced / whatever Ukraine that being in NATO is important enough to fight a war with Russia. If Russia were to allow this they may as well give up their security council seat. Since Putin sort of likes his country he does not want it to be erased - this is not humiliation this is existence as a nation. This is why any sane Russian knows they have to fight as they did during WWII. Any means need to be used. And for what is Ukraine fighting? For US interest! This is why Zielinski is about as much Ukrainian as Putin ;) No sane leader that loves his country would do this - even Fidel Castro did not do this - he was far more Cuban loving than Zielinski is pro Ukraine. To the last Ukrainian, to weaken Russia, in a war it must fight to stay free. A war to stop expansion of ... peace loving alliance ;) Finally, fight for Donbass is a good fight - these people don't want to be under Kiev boot with zero rights treated about as well as Jews by Nazi Germans. More power to them. I support their struggle for freedom. I cannot understand why anyone in the west does not understand fight for freedom. They are like Scots that fought the English! Why its so hard to see this - why people are saying Scots should leave Scotland and go back to Scandinavia where their Viking roots are? This is insane.
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  282. Nah in Kherson they beaten the offensive back. Sure, but it takes Ukraine 6 months to go and take 3km, while Russia takes 100m every week.
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  283.  @candykane4271  The also lost some in the past 24h.
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  284. YES! And battle of Sloviansk has just started!
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  285. Weapons. They have more weapons then people. They could equip not just every woman and child in Russia but also in neighboring countries. Come on, stop repeating western propaganda.
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  286. Russia is in no hurry - let the UA troops bleed. They are being unreasonable while holding territory that is hard to defend. Russia just slowly pushes and let them die in masses. Eventually they run out of people. Also Ukraine as a state is disintegrating.
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  287.  @candykane4271  Far less than Ukrainians. This is why its a meat grinder for Ukraine as many other areas are. Its war, its not meant to be pretty. Sure its "fine" with me - its war. What do you expect? Russians die too - many "Russians" are actually Ukrainians in Donbass fighting for their freedom. I do not support the war - they should negotiate their way out of it.
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  288.  @CarnisChampion  Wow, man you smoke or inject some very strong stuff. If Ukraine right now moved its troops to the west and said that Russia can take whole east side ... Russia would have refused. Taking more than half of Ukraine would bankrupt Russia. Certainly going beyond that would be worse and you are suggesting some kind of invasion of EU? With what exactly - ghost army ;) Just so you understand, to control with military unfriendly population - which Nazi in the west certainly would be - you need a lot of troops. Nazi Germany required about 400k to control "rump" Poland - non annexed regions. By end of WWII they had still 200k in small Norway (!) And Russia invaded East Ukraine with what exactly, 200k troops? Using Polish example, Russia would need around 600k to occupy all of Ukraine - and for what exactly? This war is not about land - which is only a bonus - this war is about NATO and its possible presence in Ukraine. Using some old drone to strike deep would not do much good to Ukraine and striking Moscow would only increase support for war in Russia as well as give reason for Putin to turn more industry into war industry. As I write this Putin and Russia are dismantling Ukraine and sending them to the stone age. We see how long Ukraine will enjoy this - eventually they crack - if not from this than from loss of people - if they do not use women extensively they will run out of troops in like 4 years.
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  289. And how many times did Russians get encircled in this war? Zero.
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  290.  @ryanmatthews8675  May I remind you that supposed 1st army in the world watched as their enemy taken the whole country in just three weeks and was watching them flee for weeks ;) Yeah, that is a total joke, isn't it? After 20 years it took just three weeks for the whole fake country to collapse. Remember Soviets? They left with heads held high - it took two years for the government they established to collapse - without any external help! Or should I use Vietnam as an example, where jungle flip flop army kicked supposed "1st in the world" in the rear end? Ukraine is receiving massive help - biggest on Earth! Ever. And they cannot take much land back from Russia.... Let that sink in.
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  291.  @youmed1567  Yes. An/Apg-66 radar is no better than the radar in your basic MiG-29 that Ukraine had. How well did that do? Again, not a game changer at all - same problems as MiG-29 and super vulnerable to air defenses. It is almost certain they will be delivered if US wants to continue proxy war into the next year. Will not effect the war much - its not going to make Ukraine magically win.
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  292.  @ApocDevTeam  They are stupid. They got more than 2 brigades encircled in Mariupol. Than another brigade + in lisichiansk. Now 2 more in Bakhmut. Yep, they are that stupid. Russians could pull out as they did so AFTER they beaten Ukrainian offensive back NOT while it was happening. If they were not idiots they would have pulled out long time ago. Now by tomorrow or day after the last road out will be phycially cut. What will 10,000 people do? Run out on foot through the fields in small groups? Maybe. A lot will be liquidated - especially with 1000s of Russians right behind them. Idiots. Plain and simple.
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  293.  @Twothreedeparture  But you are the dullest. So still sharper than you.
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  294.  @Twothreedeparture  Yep, you are very slow & you clearly have no grasp of strategy and have no idea what war studies are. Glad we agree.
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  295. Excellent news - this means war will end sooner as Ukraine will run out of troops sooner.
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  296. Well, we seen a lot of German fortresses as well.... Inside Soviet union.
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  297. Makariv is yet another stunt with re taking a city Russians never took or at most briefly entered. Also was Advivka - which you have in Blue, on Donetsk front claimed to be taken by DPR?
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  298. Russia won the war. We are just seeing the battle for spoils of it.
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  299.  @denismorgan9742  They are finally mobilizing. Ukraine is done, they lost, cope.
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  300. If Russians cannot crush Ukraine with 300k extra, they simply need another 300k and another 300k. I assume best action at that point would be to cut off Ukraine from Poland.
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  301. Please kindly read part of UN where nations have the right to decide, which was basis of Kosovo decision. I.e. people of Donbass, as per UN, have the right to decide where they want to live. Same for Crimea. Your examples of Poland or Russia are flawed - other then these being wars there is no common ground. Regarding Russian and Ukrainian people the history states that long time ago, on the vast planes of present day Russia and Ukraine, there were Polish tribes. They lived in peace until... one day... opening trade routes the bastards from the north invaded. These were the Rus. And they conquered the lands. Ukrainians and Russians are the Rus. Ukrainians only became distinct group of the Rus in 1930s as per Polish papers. Of course being distinct for 90-100 years does not mean they have no right to the land of Ukraine. After WWI humans were wiser then after dissolution of Soviet Union. There were referendums. People chose where they want to be. Maybe not perfect, but it worked. If this was done after fall of Soviet Union, Crimean and Donbass as well as maybe some other areas would be part of Russia from the start. There were many post Soviet wars - all would be avoided if people had the right to pick where they want to live. Are you against the right of people to choose? Are you against Kosovo? How about Taiwan?
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  302.  @n3v3rforgott3n9  So get UN there and ask them to vote. Free vote. Under UN rules.
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  303.  @Energetiker  If Kosovo can get its independence from Serbia so can Crimea and Donbass. International law is open to interpretation there. Same as your example of Africa. Why can people of Kosovo be granted extra rights but not people of Donbass? "Eritrea got granted its independence after a 30 year long civil war. The Kosovo became independent much sooner. Both acts happened under specific approval of the general assembly of the United Nations and both states are now recognized as independent nations before the whole world." Kosovo is only partially recognized, same with Eritrea (I think, did not check). Same mechanism could be used with Donbass and with Crimea. On the contrary to your statement UN DID NOT approve any independence of Kosovo - in reverse such "independence" was heavily questioned - https://www.un.org/press/en/2008/ga10764.doc.htm#:~:text=The%20General%20Assembly%20today%2C%20by,Justice%20on%20the%20legality%20of As well as "United Nations has maintained a position of strict neutrality on the question of Kosovo's status" - i.e. there was no "approval" as you state by UN. None at all! So you cannot have your cake and eat it as well. Either Kosovo and Crimea and Donbass and Taiwan can choose or they cannot. Make your choice. " they can turn these lands full of hostile inhabitants" - are you sure? People in Mariupol openly hate Ukraine. City was taken back by DPR - i.e. by people of Mariupol. And where did the Ukrainians come from? Lwow. Clearly international law is "flexible" when the west is concerned, but rather "firm" as far as Russia is concerned, in your twisted view. Either there is ONE law for all or not. In my personal view, the right of people of a region should supersede the right of states to do anything they wish - i.e. it should be part of any democracy to allow a certain subgroup to secede. This is fully implemented in Canada, where each province has the right to secede. This is what democracy is all about. Finally, going back to Crimea - its transfer to Ukraine, as well as transfer of a lot of other land to Ukraine is on very shaky legal ground. I.e. most of land of Ukraine is land that Soviets stole from other countries. A lot of old treaties were never cancelled or fell out of force. If you want to go by strict legal standard of countries sovereign rights then a lot of "Ukrainian" lands should go back to its previous owners.
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  304.  @Energetiker  So why don't anyone want say UN recognized referendum? Under UN rules with EU checks and balances, you know 100% legit. If your claims about #s are correct, which they are NOT, why doesn't Ukraine allow for such voting to take place? Well WHY NOT? Are you 100% sure that people living in Ukraine have "rights" - really? One of demands set out by Russia is same rights as minorities have in Europe. So Russia went to war, to get same rights as are in Europe. Strange, you claim Ukraine has these rights - but when discussing these Ukraine refuses! So I think you are wrong here - people have rights say in Canada - Quebec build 300 bombs before it was granted French language rights... In Ukraine the opposite occurred, Russian language was made illegal. This is just tip of the ice berg. Same issues that occurred in Kosovo did occur exactly in Donbass and Crimea + other areas. Ukraine officially made Stephan Bandera a Hero of Ukraine - a know heavy duty Nazi. Open your eyes man - these guys have Azov, ultra Nazi as regular army - people that think they are continuation of SS Glaitzen. Peaceful neighbor that bombarded Donbass for 8 years instead of honoring Minsk agreements it signed? Seriously? You totally ignore lots of evidence. Like if there are no Nazi in Ukraine, why not make them illegal? LOL. Zielinski will not touch big part of his government that is Nazi. 70% support for Bandera in the West Ukraine. You just ignore these facts as they are not in TV. Or you ignore the fact that Ukraine refused to recognize murder of over 1m Poles, mostly Jews, during WWII and refused to even allow any exhumation of these dead people. They refused to acknowledge their WWII crimes. Oh, maybe b/c they teach in their history class "alternative history"? Russia may not be a "good" or have a "good leader" but neither can be said of Ukraine or US. I hope you also have miserable day. Remember, democracy and people need for freedom will always eventually win - as it did in Vietnam and as it does in Donbass today. Maybe such "freedom" in Vietnam and Donbass is abused, true, but its there and cannot be ignored. You cannot ignore freedom, at least not in long run.
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  305. Well also Su-22M4 but these are super old.
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  306. Russia just taken a village near Kremina.
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  307. And who believes in these numbers? I am sure there are verified with pictures documents showing pro Russians capturing 2000+ Ukrainian stuff.
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  308.  Alfred Churchill  What facts??? I stated facts. I totally obliterated your pro Nazi position. You did not answer any of my questions. You did not even try b/c you know there are no answers. No one so far answered simple questions I stated.
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  309.  @Energetiker  Easier said then done. How are they going to deploy quickly large number of units to the east? Both sides can regroup in about same time - but Russians can just drive over in large convoys around the are. What would Ukraine do? They cannot just drive in large numbers, Russian AF would eat them. So they can only deploy small units, maybe battalion at a time. Also Russians are close to taking out another road there - so it would leave like two roads? Even if replacements had weeks of preparation at least they are not some green conscripts (well, at least most are not) Ukraine also has the same issue. At least sometime soon Russians will have proper numbers for the front size. We see what happens. The war will still last at least a month, maybe even three.
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  310. Well, lets not get ahead of ourselves - Ukraine has million man army per Mr. Z. Russia has at most 200k deployed including all militias - at very most. So 300k would still mean UA advantage. Its not like they are using 500k to guard border posts.
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  311.  @leonorbolek207  Why? I still stand by that comment.
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  312.  @leonorbolek207  Eventually they will - same as Russians run out of troops and allowed UA to go on the offensive. Next switch is RU on the offensive. It does not seem there is any chance of UA going back again - but if they do RU will simply recruit more. I think the 300k is BS - I expect at least 500k or 600k.
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  313.  @youareliedtobythemedia  If they run low and cannot make more while Ukraine gets tons from the west they equalize donations with nukes. Like I said many times again, Ukraine lost this war. Russia simply cannot afford to loose.
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  314. Nah, this side attack was telegraphed few times before. I doubt they even got as far as on this map. On Russian channel they have none of these "gains" - its in Russian and has like 11k likes. Just seen it.
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  315.  @johnmortin5603  Russia flies now around 300 sorties per day most of them over Ukraine. Plus helicopters. This is how they are softening up Ukrainians.
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  316. Looks now like 85% captured.
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  317. No confirmation for any reliable source - feels like fake news from Ukraine again to boost morale.
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  318.  @Paul-wo3qh  Bear is showing it's strength, wiping what is left of the wolf from the bottom of its paws.
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  319.  @Paul-wo3qh  For a castrated floor rug it is sure fighting hard!
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  320.  @Paul-wo3qh  yep, word is they will have issues making it till the end of this year or even summer. Through i worry they will instead go till the last Ukrainian.
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  321. I doubt that. Russians are allergic to being surrounded. If they are standing their ground there is a reason for that. I doubt Liman will fall.
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  322. Well, even professional army has its bad moments. US troops after IED blew up some marines went to a village and killed half of the civilians there. Most US based trails were slap on the wrist and only for NCOs and low rank officers. Higher ranks and privates got zippo. So stealing seems like low level stuff. Killing and rapes are the main concern.
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  323.  @DefensePoliticsAsia  If that was true both eastern front and Mariupol fall would be roughly at the same time. We see. The whole thing is very foggy. I mean Ukraine just (again) retaken a town near Kiev I thought they never lost.
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  324.  @snuscaboose1942  Are you high? There are plenty of Nazi in Ukraine. At least 5% of armed forces are direct descendants of SS - they are continuation of unit history! So what Ukrainian president is a Jew? Nazis can be Jewish as well, they can be Black, there can be Asian Nazi. Ideology of racial superiority and national socialism can be adopted by aliens. Don't need to be human. There is plenty of evidence of Nazi activity. These are not same neo-Nazi as in Russia, or US (white supremacists). In Russia or US they are useful political tool used by Putin / Republicans. In Ukraine they are equal members of country's political elite. Support for Bandera in the western part of the country stood at 70% before the war - Bandera is as popular as current president of Ukraine! I.e. in Ukraine the Nazi are elite units in the military, just as in Nazi Germany, and they have strong political power. You do not see anything like that in Russia or US.
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  325.  @snuscaboose1942  Why Russians cannot hold the land? Majority of people on these lands are Russians. They simply will have simmering war. To make it less of a problem Russia can build new borders on rivers. Russia will move their troops out and only provide weapons support to locals that will defend themselves against Ukraine that will have population of like 20m. Donbass is about 6m people. Add to it some extras and you can grow it to 10m. I am sure in defense they can hold off 20m from Ukraine.
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  326. None. They cannot get to Kupiansk or even near it before Russians cut them off. Suicide mission?
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  327. Also the non destroyed HIMARS systems seem to not be used... strange no... they have them but not use them anymore.
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  328.  @fishpawnz838  Not really, they announced today two depots destroyed in Kherson area. Otherwise silent. No big targets hit like few weeks ago. No bridges damaged. Nothing. So out of ammo? Destroyed? Which one is it? Surely they have targets to hit! And Ukrainian propaganda would not miss even tiniest target - so what is the deal?
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  329.  @agent19kentuckypotbaron15  But no spectacular hits - unless you include hospital in Doneck.
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  330.  @fishpawnz838  No. there was a report of some rail tracks derailment around a week ago, both nothing more recent.
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  331.  @fishpawnz838  Well, it is HARD to hide when enemy is at your door. I.e. its hard job for Ukraine to pretend they are not taking HUGE losses when their troops are overrun. So ho did Russians made all these gains if Ukraine did not suffer heavy losses? And follow-up question, if Ukraine has such a huge army, why is it shifting units so much from one front to the other? Ukraine has not provided any reliable troop loss numbers. Since beginning of the war. We can only guess losses are HUGE from actual reports from the front line. We can also guess from same reports that Russian (as in from Russia) losses are light. Who cares what each side says - just use facts to extrapolate.
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  332.  @fishpawnz838  Nothing of note - like I said last report was of some sabotage action in Kherson region on railroads. Before that the bridges were hit. Nothing else in that region. Today supposedly 2 ammo dumps were hit in Donbass - but nothing yesterday or day before.
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  333.  @fishpawnz838  I have exactly opposite view, Ukraine is loosing badly, constantly lie about their losses and their "wins" (in quotation as there aren't any in recent times). Russia simply does not even give losses figure. My current estimate for losses KIA for Russia is around 8000, for allies around 12000 and for Ukraine more then 60000. I expect the ratio to move even more loop sided for Ukraine, i.e. we will see 3.5, then 4 and then maybe even 5 to 1. After first few weeks of combat I said Ukraine should negotiate way out of this. But they did not listen. I was totally right. Now b/c they elected a comic they have a tragedy. But hey, it was AFAIK a free vote, so its their fault. We see what phase 3 brings in September - but I expect nothing good for Ukraine.
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  334.  @fishpawnz838  Well, if you trust these guys you should look into what Russia claims ;) I.e. there is not confirmation of any strikes today on ammo depots. Nor yesterday nor day before.
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  335.  @fishpawnz838  Well, so far we are mostly debunking Ukrainian lies ;) Come on, look at the map - you do not need to lie when your troops are advancing. Even pro Ukraine maps show massive numbers of units and few Russia units (or allies) yet Russian / allied troops are advancing. This suggests massive casualties on UA side. Eventually propaganda fails, even the best one, when enemy knocks on your door. It was hard to hide defeat once allied bombers flied over Germany followed by Russians at the door to your capital. Same here. You can make claims all you want but ground reality catches up. Eventually you simply will see Russians in all of Donbass. Whatever you pretend they are just ghosts or not, will not matter.
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  336.  @robertcrow3006  Sure, why not? This was fine when invading force was WESTERN!
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  337.  @Kanoubi  Yes, of course. The reason they cannot is simply brutality of the country they are part of. In Canada such separation is actually enshrined in a law. Some provinces with separatist movement want to immediately join ... USA.
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  338.  @jerski14344  With super strong pressure from the west to make it into two countries.
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  339. Yep, few more days and total collapse. Next line will not hold too long as well. I give it 2 weeks or so.
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  340. What 72nd brigade?
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  341. Really? Why? Emotional damage to Ukraine - they are killed in large numbers in... security zone.
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  342. It is known as the last hurrah. Go out with a bang.
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  343.  @celebrim1  looks like reinforcements did allow capture, we see how long they can hold it.
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  344.  @celebrim1  Currently they luck the forces, but not in the future. It is a see-saw war - side that has advantage will push and than be pushed by once it looses such advantage.
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  345.  @celebrim1  Well, things change - west supplied Ukraine with lots of weapons & they managed to get lots of forces - but that was not 3 months ago but more like 4 / 5. 3 months ago Russian and allied forces stopped and run out of steam - after taking Kremmina. There was no talk by me about end of the war 3 months ago - maybe 5 or 6. but not 3. It was clear 3 months ago that war may last years. It certainly looks like war will not be over this year or even by the start of 2023. I still hold that Russia won this war as I do not see path of victory for Ukraine. I expect Russia will retake Donbass and will have gains by early 2023. I expect Ukraine to run out of steam in around a month - i.e. by November.
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  346. The sooner they go for it the sooner the war will end and Kiev regime will know that they lost. Everyone will. Such massive attack attempt will cause massive losses for Ukraine.
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  347. This is the so called predicted by me and many others "last hurrah" - i.e. they are throwing everything they got. The main problem is, they do not got a lot, Russians are well prepared and any progress is super expensive. This is NOT how to fight a war! Even Soviets would see this as idiotic. Sure they did similar but not in such a rather predictable way. Once Ukrainian offensive potential is gone then what will they do? Surrender?
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  348.  @Ofasia777  Nah just check Russian update tomorrow for confirmation. Western sources map like livemap ua has proven like zero reliable. And no other pro UA source proven to be even token reliable - while most common Russian sources have proven to be rock solid.
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  349. Russians planned that withdrawal well - it is far better organized then actual moving in. I wonder how many Russian troops were moved before hand. I wonder if only shell troops were left and Ukraine did not notice. Since the troops have failed around Kiev there was little point of keeping them there. Thus it was a dry military decision. I think their mission was to encircle Kiev. But their #s where too little - they could not easily push more troops there as there was only one road. So good strategic decision. We see how the war will roll now - I expect Russians to fight more for Donbass. We do not understand Russian movement as we do not know true goals & how these are changing.
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  350. OMG - they can have chicken!
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  351. They are not flag officers - they are field grade.
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  352. The atrition math is aimed at simply getting Kiev to run out of troops. Also west pays a lot of $$$ for this war - this may not last forever.
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  353.  @jade59230  Not too many - maybe few 1000s.
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  354.  @j.dasilva4567  I doubt casualties are the same - Ukraine is running low on tanks and APCs etc. There are whole units moving by civilian vehicles. They are certainly low on ammo. Population has nothing to do with it. The AT missiles are for last resort fighting - the whole thing is about heavy equipment, such as tanks, artillery, APCs etc. Once you run out of that stuff you are done.
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  355.  @j.dasilva4567  Nothing is different. Missiles have been used, guided since like 1960s. Advanced models such as Tow 2 etc. have been used for like 20 years in combat as well. Russia has same systems. Spike was used extensively in AM-AZ conflict. Nothing special here.
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  356.  @jasonbrittain3316  Well, I don't know. Maybe. I recon that there are a lot of troops. There were supposedly 2500 Nazi Azov troops and 1500 regular Ukrainians at the beginning. Maybe. Russians claim "thousands". How many Russians? I recon up to 20k. If it was all DPR and LPR that would be like half of their regular force - so a bit extreme. Info is both republics have 40k regular and 30k conscript - so total of 70k. All fog of war.
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  357. But what is it that Ukraine attacks that Russia holds dear? They don't care too much about Kharkiv now - so it feels like Ukraine is attack something not important to Russia.
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  358.  @Khasidon  LOL, yet they had no more then a brigade there? And that brigade could not loose all of its equipment - I mean they did drive out somehow?!
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  359.  @dennisg1460  There were only two Russian brigades there - its a myth they captured much as there was not much. Other than land. This prompted Russia to mobilize 300k new troops - so there are no more areas with almost no Russian defenders. You will see how in a month we see a lot of dead Ukrainians and maybe modest gains in land. The war is clearly lost for Ukraine. They should negotiate out or they simply will loose more people. And maybe even more land.
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  360.  @beastmode6225  Not at all - Russians are also defending their land in Donbass. What about what Ukraine is doing to Russia? Have you considered that? Invaders will be crushed - Kiev regime troops will run back to Ukraine proper where they came from.
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  361.  @dennisg1460  Maybe tell me how that million (!!!) of super duper best in the world Ukies lost Bakhmut? Cheers. Also VDV did not participate in Vulhedar ;)
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  362.  @dennisg1460  Umm, no VDV did not participate at all. Russia had two brigades - that is 8000 troops or so. 6 BTGs is about 4000 people.
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  363.  @dennisg1460  why just 50,000, why not 500,000? I heard it was 500,000 from Ghost of Kiev.
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  364.  @dennisg1460  NATO has been helping Ukraine since 2014. Both sides had losses but we know Russian losses quite well and they were not very high during first month of the war, nor are they high now. Donbass militia was stealing a lot. So according to you it was Ukrainian stealing.
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  365. Well, it will still take many weeks - depends on Ukrainian will to fight to the last man - it could even be months.
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  366.  @evan6034  Turkey is on Turkish side - i.e. they will protect their interests. If Ukraine attacks ship with their oil they will certainly answer very harshly. Why? Well, it is their oil and b) Ukraine can easily get its nose to bleed without much repercussions. Main counter to this is Turkey could not be peacemaker.
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  367. Northern Kherson region is only delaying tactics by less then 1000 Russians, maybe as little as 600. The main forces are holding the city and the river crossings.
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  368.  @Zenny1220  Old and short range is 40km or so. They have much newer 80km stuff. So they have latest missile used by the system. They may have some older stuff as well for short range work.
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  369.  @Zenny1220  Sure, but that is not happening for political reasons. Same as no aircraft etc.
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  370. Lol.
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  371. Lugansk is easy - they control all but a part of a forest and one village. Donetsk is more interesting.
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  372. What could have occurred is that Nationalist Units asked "loyal" citizens whom collaborated (like bought food from) with Russians and executed them all. This may seem like fantasy BUT there is no investigation! Shocking! No one is investigating how and when these people died! they are just bagged and shipped off!
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  373.  @ericvandet8517  If the west was so sure of Russian war crimes, why hide? Why HIDE? Why no UN? Why no ICC? Strange no?
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  374.  @ericvandet8517  why delay? Why no forensics? Why they waited? Strange.
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  375.  @ericvandet8517  They removed the bodies, no investigation and put them in bags. Heck, will not be shocked if some got cremated. UK delayed sending UN - I am unsure if even UN investigative team was dispatched yet or not. Sat photos are of no huge value. There was no forensic investigation of crime scene as crime scene was removed. First thing you do when you investigate crime scene you make sure it is not disturbed. Here it was... removed. How do you explain this???? Why did they remove crime scene not waiting for UN - why did UK delay UN dispatch????
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  376. They may think of forming a new border over a river. Look at rivers for new borders.
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  377. It can be diversionary attacks - by few highly trained soldiers and with a lot of poor conscript behind for the show.
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  378. Yes, some, some were taken POW - I seen on video. I think in National Guard.
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  379. That map has been shown time and time again to be unreliable. So I would not really trust it much - I no longer even look at it.
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  380. Speeding up == more losses, less Russian performance jokes; Going slow == less losses, far greater damage to Ukraine. One has to realize that Russians are destroying much more heavy equipment per day in Ukraine then Ukraine does received (if it actually gets any). Also a lot of other damage. 100s of sorties per day do their job.
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  381.  @DeclinedMercy  LOL, there are no conscripts - there will be in 2 or 3 days - but they will be all after months of training. Russia has millions of working rifles. I would assume at least 10 million if not more. Relax, I bet by end of this year Ukraine will claim victory and try to restart talks. If they succeed, Ukraine will lose Donbas and Crimea... and call it victory.
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  382.  @hallgeirtveit5553  Or they guys that claimed they have destroyed more tanks then Russia had! Shamelessly they are now at what, 120% or 130% of total?
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  383.  @hallgeirtveit5553  Where did you see T-55 - only Ukraine uses T-55. There is not much photo evidence of anything. I assume Ukraine lost a bit more tanks than Russia did.
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  384.  @hallgeirtveit5553  Really, I have seen zero evidence of any T-55 use - if there was any evidence I would have seen it. All there was is a video of T-55s on a train two months ago.... nothing more than that.
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  385.  @hallgeirtveit5553  Nope, just checked and no such image can be found. There also have not been trainloads of them but a single train. There cannot be train loads of them as Russia does not actually have a lot of T-55s.
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  386. Nah, Davydiv Brid not taken. Just fighting there. We see more in few days - this whole front is relatively quiet. Small forces.
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  387.  @InfoSopher  Are you shitting me? There are like 100s of things Ukraine lied about. Ghost of Kiev, Snake Island just at the start. Then at least 10 cities that they have retaken - every week we have new city "retaken" that was never claimed to be taken by other side, some cities never even saw a single Russian soldier. Then there is "counter attack" and "encirclement" I mean at least dozen times they "counterattacked" and "encircled" the enemy. And this is only things that can be shown. Ukraine arrested its opposition. They even arrested it before the war, any one of them not in jail is in there right now. You clearly don't know what is going on.
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  388.  @banger2998  As per Ukraine, before the war Kiev regime had 37m people. I assume they know how many tax payers they have. Now its probably well under 30m.
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  389. Push whom out? Ukrainians? Yeah, Russia is using massive amounts of artillery but mostly short - mid range to push Ukrainians out in Izium front.
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  390.  @mattiasdahlstrom2024  You are not the only one. I also think a lot of pp think "Russians" and add to this Czechens / DPR / LPR. There I can see some heavy losses in say DPR conscript troops.
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  391. No, Russia cannot handle so many poor people - they may create East Ukraine.
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  392. Remember Jews were Polish citizens as well - so the number is over a million Poles, not just 100k. Also the 100k seems low - for example, over 4000 towns and villages were removed from the map. It seems a low number to say only on average 25 were killed!
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  393.  @termopylae5506  But they cannot go to Crimea without epic level of supplies. How can they get such supplies across the river when Russians, with fewer troops and with actual bridges had issues?
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  394.  @Arniac1  Sure they would - they supplied a lot of weapons in wars that their puppets have lost - so did the Soviets. West did not supply many tanks - less than 100 were delivered which is next to nothing. Its a joke. Never underestimate your enemy - but also do not think NATO military planners are some Gods. Remember west lost with Soviet Union - Berlin was taken - and it had the best western commanders on earth. The war for Ukraine is lost. Even if by some miracle they manage to gain a lot of land - they still lost the war. Especially when everyone knows that this is their last hurrah.
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  395. It feels like Ukraine is starting an offensive where they will pretend to have a success without actually using up too many forces. This way they can say "well look, we attacked, we took a lot of land (say 10 villages) and now we are waiting for more US aid. I could be wrong, but so far it does not look big.
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  396.  @DWandtheenablers  So why no investigation? Why did UK block Russian attempt to get UN involved? You against crime scene investigation? Why is that? Why cannot international experts investigate the man on the bike? Why NOT?
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  397.  @DWandtheenablers  Demanding cell phones is 100% valid strategy. Apparently this was not done in Bucha. Many interviews, Ukrainians killed my neighbors. LOTS. So what? Maybe you should watch the other side videos of people showing all dead bodies executed by Azov. But that does not mean Azov did it. We need concreate investigation. For Bucha it was blocked at UN by UK. WHY???? So far we only have two videos of Ukrainian war crimes where Ukrainians are executing POWs. It would not be rocket science to check time of death of these people killed. But this was not done. Bodies were quickly removed and no investigation of crime scene was allowed. I wonder why.
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  398.  @DWandtheenablers  But Russia could not investigate the crime on territory it cannot control and Russia is not UN. Russia asked ** United Nations ** to investigate. So why no investigation? Heck why didn't UK ask for UN investigation? Why no ICC investigation? WHY NO INVESTIGATION BY ANYONE? Answer that one.
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  399. I prefer that any Ukrainians left pack up and leave for Ukraine - if they like it so much.
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  400. ****** Note geo location of latest Patrick L video - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9sZuz4dlVAo They are filming in the center of Mariupol - so one can add a 1km+ bubble there.
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  401. Yeah, they can simply be cut off - but I doubt they get more than 20 - 30km deep.
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  402.  @FriedrichSchuessler  But it was Bakhmut not Zaporozia. Comparing pace Russia did better in Bakhmut - it pushed over larger enemy force, taking light losses and taking a city.
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  403. Lets see whatever we have Mariupol 2.0 or they decide to run away through Russian artillery.
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  404. Its super old. I doubt they do anything other then scarp it. It was probably scheduled to be scrapped next year anyways. Its a miracle its even in active fleet... I mean was.
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  405.  @banger2998  Nah Russians usually don't lie on official channels. Ukrainians all the time. Its rare to hear any "truth" coming out of UA.
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  406. With all the reporting victories by Ukraine it may seem strange for someone who does not watch the front to conclude they are loosing badly. Most (all) of these victories are fake through. They either simply lie or more likely capture stuff they never lost. Lets face it, they do not have any ammo left for 152mm guns and only use 122mm as well as few US supplied guns.
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  407. I doubt there is any raid.
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  408.  Ukraine Combat Footage  Who - Ukrainians? Nah, they usually last longer then that. Its a PR stunt that they actually have some Russian surrounded. Come on pp!
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  409. Just mark Davydiv Brid as gray or both colors - many other commentators do exactly that.
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  410. Supposedly. Ukraine also supposedly denied. Who knows exactly what did happen - could be a false flag. It took a whole day to put out the fire.
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  411.  @wordofswords5386  Russia makes its own chips. Quit listening to propaganda and news.
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  412. Yes, in few days we see whole defense line proposed by Zielinski falling.
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  413.  @digimaks  Yes, they even have the flags ready to post once the switch is complete!
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  414. Yes, Ukraine had almost 1000 tanks deployed. They had like 2000+ in reserve, but realistically they could not have fixed more than a 1000 - rest was just too far gone. Poland alone send 600 tanks, with others is closer to 1000.
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  415.  @year4559  Just go to bloody Wikipedia or any other similar source.
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  416. They will probably need to move back one more time before they can stop UA & go on the offensive. They need to last at least a month.
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  417. ​ @horoshkoaleksandr273  according to the west, Austria, Ukraine lost 100% of its deployed at start of the war equipment. But they fixed some old stuff and got 1000s of vehicles from the west. Again, according to western sources. Help now greatly exceeds allied help to Soviets during WWII.
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  418.  @jerski14344  Sure it will be - by Russia - which is all that matters.
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  419. Why not? They do not need to affect average Russian - but they will be able to use extra 100k troops legally. For all this calling of Putin a dictator he follows laws quite precisely. They can do limited mobilization, say 250k.
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  420. Only the plant is in Ukrainian hands. Their counter attack failed in spectacular sense. Huge losses. The only thing they manage is to hold on. But at what cost? What will they do tomorrow or day after? Forces to the south should move out, or they will be cut off soon. Foreign legion cannot continuously counter attack to save them.
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  421.  @ApocDevTeam  Well, 5sq km for Ukraine and about 3sq for Russia so net gain for UA of whooping 2sq km. I expect more for Ukraine tomorrow and day after when they kick Russians out of their advance positions even more.
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  422.  @sonaruo  How can you have a great line of defense there if enemy is already behind it?
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  423. I am sure that if they did any crimes and want to run away they can. Ordinary people do not - Ukraine said anyone whom had Russian passport - so almost all people other then children and elderly - will get 10 to 15 years. These pp are poor. They either fight or face gulag. What would you do?
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  424. They are having a party in hell!
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  425.  Modern Conflicts  maybe but they are taking cities slowly as well, such as Lisychiansk, Bahmut or Sloviansk. Need to take villages first, then cities will come.
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  426.  Modern Conflicts  If that was true then UA losses would approach 200% ;) Russians and allies are attacking - they have to be in far better shape then the enemy to do that. in the past 48h whole front line north of Popasna just collapsed. Russia taken like 6 or 7 villages, is in the suburbs of Lisichiansk already and surrounded physically the forces around Zalote. WAY faster then anyone thought they can do it.
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  427.  @gothicgolem2947  And that is why only 13% of the planet decided to join in on the sanctions and less then 30% of nations on this planet decided to condemn Russia (recent UN). Certainly Russia has no allies then ;)
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  428.  @gothicgolem2947  "A joint anti-Russian statement on the conflict in Ukraine, which was released on Wednesday, was supported by only 58 United Nations member states, or less than a third of the organization’s 193 members." This is now well hidden as resolution failed (so more then 1/3 voted against!) From around Aug 25th.
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  429.  @gothicgolem2947  NO. Resolution failed, so well over 1/3 voted against it, so at least 59 nations. FAILED. This means more voted against.
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  430.  @gothicgolem2947  You are talking about resolution in March. I am talking about the one in August. It FAILED. well over 60 nations voted against it.
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  431. One to two months. It all depends on like a million things. Ukrainians may for example defend for over a month in Sloviansk just to drag things on and on.
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  432. Ukrainians cannot be on the offensive and at the same time fight off Russian attack. They do not have enough reserves. I think we are not yet seeing major Russian push.
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  433. Ukraine is running out of steam - expect Russian offensive in next few weeks - either still this year or early next year.
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  434. I knew they are going to cut them off, but I did not think from the back! Russian command is good!
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  435. Ukraine running out of firewood - use furniture!
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  436. No one knows the count in UA air force, so one cannot give you that.
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  437. Well, once Ukraine offensive is over Russians can counter and force Ukraine to the table. The end of the war is what Kiev has the power to do. Or they can drag it on for years to come.
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  438.  @tunacanoe2143  As the saying goes, if Russia stops, its the end of Russia. If Kiev stops the war is over. I agree Nazi need to be defeated. Kiev regime needs to fall. West is on the wrong side of history - as usual. Freedom always wins in the end, as people want to be free. West better remember that.
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  439. Nah, just taking some advance positions in front of defense lines as well as pushing Russians out of trenches near Bakhmut for like 10th time. There is way too much hysteria around this. Of course Russians should not just pretend nothing is happening. They should realize Ukraine is now on the offensive along entire front line.
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  440. He is an idiot. That is it. Morale will drop bellow zero very soon. Imagine you are a soldier in Ukrainian army. Not only the enemy is killing you off with artillery now you see time and time again 1000s of your fellow soldiers abandomed. You can FEEL the luck of caring for your life in Kiev. Zielinski does not care. These are not his people. He will quit his post and move to Florida - just watch.
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  441. I guess you are living in fools paradise - whom do you think did offensive in Kharkiv? Ants?
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  442. We are still ways off from that.
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