Comments by "yop yop" (@yopyop3241) on "The Downward Spiral of the Chinese Economy || Peter Zeihan" video.

Recession on top of everything else: ongoing real estate collapse, incredibly brittle banking sector, retirement crisis, collapse in international reputation which is spawning protective tariffs, loss of access to tech, and a regional arms race. Also: You have not lived through economic collapse. Ukraine’s economy is being propped up with outside aid. China will not have that kind of economic support. As bad as it is in Ukraine, you should be thankful that you are not facing the sort of collapse that is coming for China. China’s collapse is probably coming before the war in Ukraine is resolved.
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Zeihan has always put China’s “collapsed by” date at 2030. The date is set by China’s demographics. Famine from 1958-1961 was followed by giant baby boom from 1963-1970. (1970 is when birth restrictions started to be imposed.) Declining health forces manual laborers to retire at age 60 on average. Sixty years after 1963 is 2023; sixty years after 1970 is 2030. China’s giant cadre of Boomers have just started to retire; they will almost all be retired by 2030. With the One Child Policy stunting the younger generations, China by 2030 will be a giant old folks home. The few young people who exist will mostly all be forced to devote their lives to elder care. Until societal collapse comes, anyway.
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By 2030. His big prediction for all these years (going back to at least 2011) has been that China would collapse by 2030. His less well known prediction for China (again going back to 2011): deflation by 2024. That one is looking pretty good.
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It will look like America with a small chunk of its debt paid down on the cheap.
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@brianjonker510 China’s problems are much more severe than Japan’s have been.
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@ronblack7870 Zeihan has been talking about more than half of the Chinese people alive today being dead of famine or famine-driven violence. Within the next ten years. Real collapse.
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@loot6 He never said that. People have quoted him out of context to try to discredit him. In a presentation from the mid-2010s, he laid out his predictions for the 2020s. One of those predictions was that “China will not survive the decade.” In the context of the full presentation, it’s clear that he meant that China will collapse by 2030. In a dishonest attempt to discredit him, that clip was snipped out as a “gotcha.” “See! Look what he was predicting for China in the 2010s! ‘Won’t survive the decade.’ But here we are in the 2020s, and China is still here! Zeihan is a hack!”
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He has always put the Chinese “dead by” date at 2030. He’s been saying “2030” since at least 2011. Also since at least 2011, as a precursor signpost ahead of China’s outright collapse, he has been warning of deflation hitting China by 2024. Note that much of the Chinese fragility that Zeihan sees is related to China’s codependent relationship with the Middle East. If China slows too much, the Middle East will fracture. And if the Middle East fractures, China dies from lack of oil. Along with a lot of other countries. If the availability of oil suddenly plummets, there will be a lot of death. But the death won’t be spread evenly. The scale of the death in any given country will be directly proportional to the distance that a country has to sail to get oil and inversely proportional to the friendliness of the US military bases along the way. China is waaaay down at the bottom by both metrics.
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