Comments by "yop yop" (@yopyop3241) on "Trump 2.0 - Reindustrialization || Peter Zeihan" video.

He has always put the “dead by” date at 2030. He has been talking about 2030 being the end in his presentations since at least 2011. He has put it in writing in his books, the first of which was published in 2014. The date is derived from China’s “4-2-1” demographic problem. The “4” generation is an unbelievable explosion in population in both parts of the definition of “explosion”: massive expansion and over a very short period of time. Massive expansion: incredible baby boom in the wake of the 1958-1961 Great Chinese Famine. Very short period of time: stifled just a few years later by the 1970 imposition of Mao’s “Later, Longer, Fewer” population control measures (and became increasingly draconian and culminated in the infamous “One Child Policy” under Deng in 1980). China’s Boomers are an enormous wave of people, and they were overwhelmingly born over just a handful of years from 1963-1970. China’s retirement age is 60, so the Chinese Boomers just started hitting the age when they can begin collecting retirement benefits in 2023. By 2030, they will almost all be retired. That huge segment of the Chinese population transitioning from “makers” to “takers” is the origin of China’s “dead by” date being pegged at 2030.
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@stofjes4204 If China stays peaceful, those overseas assets will provide income to help them try to survive. If China tries to pull an Ukraine, those overseas assets will be seized. Same as Russia’s overseas assets.
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@Milzan30 The “without conflict” brutality against peaceful HK protesters is a big part of why the PRC’s approval rating in the advanced democracies fell from ~55% to ~20%. (The other big part is due to China’s intransigence during the pandemic.)
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@Milzan30 The 2019 brutality and the concurrent reneging on the promise of “One Country, Two Systems” ensures that there will never be a “handover” of Taiwan for as long as the CCP rules the PRC.
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@Milzan30 You could not be more wrong about the importance of democracy. Over the last 30+ years advanced world experimented with trusting countries that had not earned that trust. The hope was that the countries that were gifted with trust would grow to be worthy of that trust. Unfortunately, although that experiment was noble, it has been an utter failure. We are reverting back to the norm of trust needing to be earned. Democracy is the most transparent form of government ever implemented, and that transparency is what allows trust to grow. Real democracy with all of the necessary support institutions (freedom of speech, freedom of the press, an independent judiciary, etc.) is going to be more and more essential going forward. Countries without real democracy will not be trusted and will be frozen out of trade, access to capital, access to tech, etc.
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